Huck Jammin'

"Let's show Iowa how politics should be done."

It isn't really a party unless Mike Huckabee is jamming.

Shortly after his final speech of 2007, Huckabee took to the bass guitar.

But before that, he said this: "I think we are on the brink of something truly transforming in American politics," Huckabee said.

"Let's show Iowa, America and the world how politics should be done."

(BTW-I spotted New York Times diva Maureen Dowd.)

Huckabee's New Year's Eve Party

WEST DES MOINES --- Mike Huckabee's New Year's Eve Party is at a posh pad in western Des Moines called the Wakonda Club.

A snazzy band with a lead saxophone warmed up the crowd for about a half hour before Huckabee appeared.

The crowd is dressed to the T. Lots of young people. Huck doesn't drink . . . but the drinks seem to be flowing well. Top aides and national reporters are at the bar. They aren't even in the same room as the speech. They've probably heard it 14 times today. Carl Cameron from FOX is gabbing with Huckabee's top political strategists. Pollster Frank Luntz is also in this crowd.

Just after 7 p.m., Huck's wife introduces the man.

"We're going to do something in November a lot of people said a year ago could not be done," Huckabee told the crowd to cheers.

Huck is taking veiled shots at rivaled Mitt Romney. He says he'll be able to go to sleep tonight knowing he ran a respectable, if yet an unconventional campaign.

"I want to be part of something that changes things, that changes the Republican party," he said. "It's truly been an amazing year."

Iowa . . . Helloooo!

4:32 p.m. Decatur County, Iowa . . . Crossing the state line.

5:44 p.m. Checked into hotel room

Now, who should we spend New Year's Eve with? Obama? Hillary Clinton? Huckabee?

Choices, choices . . .

Are You Ready?

IOWA 'ER BUST

KY3 CAUCUS COVERAGE

In just a few hours, we'll be hitting the road for Des Moines. Remember to check back with the KY3 Political Notebook throughout the week for continuous updates from around the Hawkeye State as we travel with the candidates in the final 72-hours leading up to these historic caucuses. Our goal is to keep you up-to-date with firsthand dispatches from the scene and pictures from the events.

Then, be sure to watch KY3 News on Wednesday for live previews, and of course on Thursday night on KY3 News @ 10 for live results from Mike Huckabee's campaign. A few final notes before we go:

• DROPPING THE BALL - The final Des Moines Register poll is set to drop just as your New Year's Eve celebration kicks into high gear. This poll will set the final expectations/storyline for candidates. Will John Edwards continue to surge? Is Huckabee losing momentum?
• IT"S THE DELEGATES, STUPID. - Without a viable Iowa campaign, Rudy Giuliani has been out of the news cycle. But he maintains he's far from out of this race. In a campaign memo e-mailed to supporters this morning, Giuliani makes the case that the nomination is determined by the number of delegates accumulated -- not by who wins the early states. The strategy memo points to solid Giuliani leads in Florida, California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey. Giuliani's campaign also points out that only 78 delegates will be chosen prior to Florida in late January, whereas 1,039 delegates will be selected on Jan. 29th and Feb. 5th. The campaign also makes a brief mention of Missouri in the memo: "Aside from the huge northeast delegate prize, Missouri will award 58 winner-take-all delegates, and Senator Kit Bond's endorsement gives our organization a great statewide network there."
• LOSING THE BIG 'MO - Do you get the feeling the insurgents for the past month -- Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee -- are now losing steam as gametime approaches? The Des Moines Register poll with either confirm this perception or defeat it, but the sense is while that Iowans flirted with "the dream," many are coming home to former frontrunners Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton. Is electability driving this? Or did the negative attacks just stick?

Ok, time to pack lots of warm clothes. Iowa isn't exactly balmy this time of year. Thanks for clicking back so often on the blog this year. We hope we'll make it worth your while to do so even more this crazy election year . . . To you and yours, Happy New Year.

Talk to you in Des Moines!

Talent Stumps For Romney in Iowa

TOUTS JUDICIAL APPOINTMENTS

Former Missouri Senator Jim Talent was in Iowa Sunday, campaigning for Mitt Romney.

MSNBC's First Read reports that Talent was reminding Evangelical leaders of the importance of judicial appointments.

From First Read:

"Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) and his son traveled with the campaign in Iowa yesterday, as did pro-life advocate and attorney Jay Sekulow. Talent and Sekulow explained to reporters on the press bus yesterday afternoon that they have been meeting with evangelical Christian in leaders in the state to remind them of the importance of judicial appointments over the next few years. Sekulow insisted: “To nominate someone and then to see to confirming them are two different tasks. And for the task of confirmation, you have to have the political skills and leadership to do that,” insinuating that Huckabee may not quite be ready for that."

More Huckabee Doubters

"ROMNEY Org. Worth 4-5 Points"

Mike Huckabee has seemed to lost the pundit class during the final days of this Iowa campaign.

Not many are left betting on Huckabee to win Thursday's Iowa caucuses. And even if he finishes a close second -- which would've been a huge story 2 months ago -- is no longer good enough.

Welcome to the expectations game. Candidates live and die by them.

"Huckabee . . . is in such sense an insurgent," New York Times columnist David Brooks said. "Romney has the Republican establishment, and all the money and all the power behind him."

"For people who vote in Republican primaries, Romney is still basically the core of the party," Brooks added.

ABC consultant Donna Brazile surmised: "Romney has the organization, he has the people on the ground. He's microtargeting, he knows exactly who will come out and vote for him on caucus night. So I think a good organization, a good turn out operation is worth about 4 or 5 points and I give the advantage to Romney on the Republican side."

"If he loses in Iowa, that's it for Mike Huckabee," said ABC's George Stephanopoulos.

Romney Eyes Huckabee's Lead

TWO NEW POLLS

HUCK LOSING GROUND?

4 DAYS LEFT
What if Iowa's a TIE?

Two new polls out four days before the Iowa caucuses shows Mitt Romney clawing back into a virtual dead heat with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee.

An MSNBC-McClatchy poll gives Romney the lead. The Reuters-Zogby poll has it dead even. Pick the one you like:

MSNBC-McClatchy
Mitt Romney 27%
Mike Huckabee 23%

(+/- 5 points)

Reuters-Zogby
Mike Huckabee 29%
Mitt Romney 28%

(+/- 3 points)

Huckabee looked articulate and didn't seem flustered on Meet The Press Sunday morning. He said it wasn't his place as a candidate to say if Pakistan should carry forth with its scheduled elections. With a minor pause, Huckabee even got the "gotcha" question right -- correctly calling Pakistan a "primarily Sunni" country. He also defended his comment about controlling the borders in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination. "We're talking about the potential of a person who can come across this border with a dirty bomb and a suitcase," Huckabee said.

Huckabee also defended himself against recent television advertisements run by Romney and hit back hard. He said he wasn't a latecomer to support for the surge, like Romney. "Mitt Romney is running a very desperate and frankly a dishonest campaign," he said.

"When Mitt Romney comes on your show and says that he had the N.R.A. endorsement when he didn't, when he comes on and says he's pro-life and yet he signed a bill that gives a $50 dollar co-pay for an elective abortion in his state's healthcare plan, when he claims he's really for the second amendment, but on this show, he talked about how he supported limitations and restrictions on lawful abiding citizens, having gun ownership rights. Those are not the marks of a person who's pro-life and pro-second amendment," Huckabee said.

"If you aren't being honest obtaining the job, can we trust you to be honest if you get the job," Huckabee added.

So did Huckabee really peak too early? Is the air slowly coming out of the balloon? Conservative political analyst Monica Crowley said on The McLaughlin Group this weekend that Huckabee would be just a blip in our minds by February, suggesting his rise would soon come to an end without much consequence. NBC Political Director Chuck Todd wasn't convinced Huckabee would be able to hold on in Iowa, noting that the Hawkeye State usually comes down to organization --- and with low enthusiasm on the G.O.P. side, that could hinder Huckabee's chances.

Then there's Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic, who reports from Indianola, Iowa about why some Iowans are signing on with the Baptist Minister from Hope. "He's got, he's got heart. He's a good man," Ambinder quotes one Iowan telling him. "A down to earth person who we're going to be able to trust."

Will a lack of organization, foreign policy woes and questions about electability ultimately sink Huckabee? Or will his good-guy, straight-talking, populist message win over the heartland? And what if Huckabee and Romney finish close -- like within a thousand votes of each other, or less than a percentage point separating the two -- is there really a true winner?

4 DAYS to go . . .

2008 Legislative Preview

Blunt Lunches With G.O.P. Lawmakers

Immigration, Health Insurance Key Priorities

The new year brings some new and some old priorities for Missouri lawmakers. Governor Matt Blunt met privately with Republican legislators from around the Ozarks Friday to outline goals.

You can watch my 2008 legislative preview HERE.

Rep. Shane Schoeller, who attended the midday luncheon with the Governor, said immigration reform and providing the uninsured health coverage would be top priorities for G.O.P. lawmakers.

On immigration, Schoeller said: "I think the issue people have is if you're not abiding by the laws of this country, they should receive no benefits."

He also said Republicans would move towards reducing the estimated 700,000 Missourians who remain uninsured. "The plan is that if an insurance provider is going to offer it, they have to offer the same benefit that any state employee gets," Schoeller said.

Schoeller also said that making sure the Springfield crime lab is properly funded would be a priority of local lawmakers.

More to come . . .

Not Telling: Why Local Pols Aren't Endorsing

"As an elected official, it's somewhat risky."

None of Springfield's Republican state representatives are publicly endorsing a candidate for president, now just over a month before Missouri's February 5th primary.

Rep. Jim Viebrock of the #134th legislative district puts it this way: "As an elected official it's somewhat risky to publicly endorse, because you don't know. The next thing out of their mouth might be really, really bad," he said.

Viebrock said he has a personal policy not to endorse, even in local races. "I've very cautious about endorsing in any primary." But he acknowledged that part of the problem in the Republican race for president is that there is no clear frontrunner to get behind.

"Among friends we talk about it, but I'm not ready to make a public commitment. It's pretty scattered really. I'm kind of curious to watch and see who comes through," Viebrock said.

Rep. Charlie Denison (#135th) said he has not yet made up his mind on an endorsement. In a brief phone interview, Denison said, "I'm going to kind of wait and see what the fallout of it all is."

In an interview Friday, Rep. Shane Schoeller (#139th) said he is privately leaning towards a candidate, but is not ready to say who. "I've decided in this particular race that you are not going to get a candidate that has every quality that you would look for," he said.

Rep. Bob Dixon's (#140th) office said Dixon was unavailable for comment due to a family emergency. A spokeswoman for Senator Norma Champion said the senator was unreachable and taking time off until after the holiday.

Rep. B.J. Marsh has been the most open about his choices -- favoring Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani -- but even the blunt Marsh said he hasn't settled.

On the Democratic side, Rep. Sara Lampe talks glowingly about the top three Democrats, but offers no hint of a preference. Rep. Charlie Norr has told the KY3 Political Notebook he favors John Edwards.

Blunt Wants Another Boost For Medicaid Docs

For the second straight year, Governor Matt Blunt is asking lawmakers to approve millions more for doctors who treat Medicaid patients.

You can watch our KY3 News @ 10 report HERE.

It's an important issue for physicians and gauging the lack of public pronouncements from the opposition, it's probably the best Medicaid story out there for this Governor.

The Bhutto Effect on '08

"The entire conversation changed"

"In one minute, one instant, one flash . . ."

The assassination of former Pakistan Prime Minister and reformer Benazir Bhutto has reconfigured the conventional wisdom's thinking about the 2008 presidential race.

At least for a day.

We listen a little closer to the words of Hillary Clinton, and her personal meeting with Bhutto and wonder . . . maybe experience does trump hope? We turn up the volume on the television sets when those gray-haired old white men start speaking. Sen. John McCain looks a little steadier in wartime. Maybe even hard-knocks Rudy Giuliani gets another look.

"The entire conversation changed, in one minute, one instant, one flash," said NBC's chief foreign correspondent Andrea Mitchell tonight.

How would our next president handle this crisis? Bill Richardson is calling for Pakistan Prime Minister and Bhutto rival Pervez Musharraf to step down. Joe Biden is demanding Pakistan hold free elections. Or do we need a president who would back Musharraf during this storm for stability's sake?

"With President Bush not on the ballot, the most senior figures in the race on either side of the aisle who may inherit that "rally round the flag" effect are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Clinton, in fact, may benefit the most," writes Steven Stark on RealClearPolitics.

Suddenly, the other man from Hope may not be so funny. In a minor blunder, Mike Huckabee appeared to say Pakistan was currently under marshal law. Critics pounced. It's minor. But in the high-stakes game of presidential politics in wartime, it's surely not petty.

Poll: Huckabee Looks Stable in Iowa

ONE WEEK LEFT

NEW LA TIMES POLL

Huckabee Maintains Lead in Iowa;

Romney Looks Stable in N.H.

The freshest numbers from the 2008 presidential race are breaking at this hour. The L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll shows good news for Hillary Clinton and better news for Mike Huckabee in Iowa.

IOWA G.O.P.

Mike Huckabee 37%

Mitt Romney 23%

John McCain 11%

Fred Thompson 11%

(+/-6 points)

IOWA DEMS (Likely Caucus-goers)

Hillary Clinton 31%

John Edwards 25%

Barack Obama 22%

(+/-4 points)

Who finishes third in Iowa matters on both sides. McCain's best scenario: Huck knocks of Romney in Iowa and is able to eek out a third place to launch himself into New Hampshire. The Democratic side looks much more chaotic. But even if Hillary finishes third, don't expect her to quit.

Beyond Iowa

Clinton Mo. Online HQ Up and Running

Hillary Clinton's Internet campaign headquarters in Missouri is up and running.

Her online home is here . . . www.hillaryclinton.com/missouri

"Please use the website as a resource to plan local events, make calls for the campaign, and find new ways to get involved," said Clinton State Director Rachel Storch in an e-mail. "Please be sure to check back to the site often for updates on upcoming events in Missouri and the latest news from the Show Me State."

Think Hil will show in Southwest Missouri? Betting odds anyone . . .

Doctor's Orders

BLUNT PROPOSES $53 MILLION FOR DOCTORS

"It will keep them in the game."

Governor Matt Blunt is proposing a nearly $53 million dollar pay raise for healthcare providers who treat lower-income Missourians.

If approved, the proposal will boost Medicaid payments to doctors who participate in Missouri's revamped Medicaid program.

"Our plan will provide more for those who provide care to vulnerable Missourians helping to ensure that Missouri families have access to quality health care services," Gov. Blunt said in a statement.

Springfield physician Dr. David Barbe called the announcement "continued movement in the right direction." "It will keep doctors who see Medicaid patients in the game," he added.

Many Medicaid patients have difficulty finding a doctor who will accept them. Dr. Barbe said this funding would not solve that problem -- but at least help alleviate it.

Bond Responds To Bhutto Assassination

Sen. Kit Bond offered this statement on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto:

"The tragic assassination of Benazir Bhutto was a brutal act of violence and my prayers are with the Bhutto family. Terrorists will continue to strike at democratic and freedom loving people around the world. It is critical that we continue to hunt down and punish these violent extremists and remain vigilant in the war on terror.”

Blunt on '08: There's No Frontrunner

Ozarks Congressman Does Not Intend To Endorse

Seventh district Congressman Roy Blunt told the KY3 Political Notebook he does not intend to endorse a Republican candidate for president until a nominee emerges from the process.

"I don't have any intention to. There could be a set of circumstances that I don't imagine, but I don't think I will," Rep. Blunt said in an interview at KY3 studios.

With dreams of "being in the majority again," Blunt said he is trying to keep his focus on potential Republican candidates who could help him take back power in the House of Representatives.

"I know everybody running, some better than others. Most of them have been in the 7th district for some event over the last few years, and were well-received here. Several of them I consider friends of mine and I'll be glad to work for the nominee when that happens," Blunt said.

Still, explaining why there's no G.O.P. frontrunner this time around has been a head-scratcher. Blunt said the open race on both sides makes the end game more difficult to predict. "When you have a candidate on one side already decided, I think it makes it a little easier to coalesce around the opponent on the other side," he said.

A few months ago, Blunt predicted Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. He did not repeat that claim in our interview Wednesday. "With two open competitions, it makes it harder for either side to coalesce around . . . X would be the best person to run against whoever the nominee on the other side is going to be," he said.

"I don't think there's any frontrunner right now. I'd hate to bet my house on who the nominee's going to be," Blunt said.

Blunt: Filers Can Expect Delay On Returns

Tax filers will have to wait a little longer than usual for their refunds come the new year, according to 7th District Congressman Roy Blunt.

That's because of a late Congressional change to what's known as the alternative minimum tax (AMT), which President Bush signed into law today.

You can watch my KY3 News @ 10 report HERE.

The tax was designed almost 40 years ago to target millionaires who skip out on taxes. But year after year, without a change for inflation, the AMT hits more and more middle class taxpayers.

As in years past, Congress took action this year to prevent the tax from hitting millions more, but because they waited so long to do so, you will now wait too.

"You'll get your refund, you just won't get your refund as quickly," Blunt said in an interview Wednesday. "If you're counting on that to pay the January credit card bill from Christmas, you're probably going to have to think of something a little differently to get you through."

B.J. Marsh UNLEASHED

PLANS 2010 STATE SENATE RUN

"I'll jump in and spoil things"

ON BLUNT'S RE-ELECTION CHANCES:

"50% and under"

HOPING FOR HUCKABEE WIN

"Because Blunt and Jetton are for Romney"

There's probably no juicier political interview in the Ozarks than Rep. B.J. Marsh. The maverick moderate Republican, who has been saddled with health problems and missed countless important votes in Jefferson City, likes to say he "tells it like it is."

The fact that he's term-limited in the House after 2008, means his loose lips seem even a bit looser these days.

In a wide-ranging interview Wednesday, Rep. Marsh told the KY3 Political Notebook he's almost certain he'll run for Sen. Norma Champion's District 30 Senate seat when it opens up in 2010. He has already filed official campaign papers for the run, but isn't yet settled on if he'll run as a Republican or independent.

"I'll jump in and spoil things," Marsh said with a laugh via telephone, as he makes his annual trek out to the Rose Bowl in California. "If they put up 5 ultra-conservative pro-life candidates, I'll jump in as a moderate and win the thing. If not, I'll run as an independent. Just depends what things look like."

Marsh also predicted he could see lawmakers take up the touchy issue of term-limits this year. He said there may be some movement to do away with them altogether or extend them to 18 years.

The #136th district representative also questioned the time his Republican Governor has left in office. Marsh said Matt Blunt's re-election chances are "50% and under." He cited the Medicaid cuts and the recent Scott Eckersley scandal as the main reasons.

"When I'm on a tour bus, he's not carrying over 30% of my bus," said Marsh, who runs a travel business that specializes in bus tours for seniors. "These are voters 50 and older, and he's just not very popular. They think he's hurt a lot of people."

On the 2008 presidential field, Marsh said he likes Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. In that order. He said he likes Giuliani's moderation but also admires Huckabee's candor with the media. "He just says it like it is," Marsh said.

He said he certainly would not vote for Mitt Romney, because he doesn't trust him. "In the general, I'm not passed going with Hillary. I'd vote for Hillary over Romney," Marsh said.

Still, he said he's probably vote for Giuliani or Huckabee over Clinton.

He's especially rooting for Huckabee to knock off Romney in Iowa. Why?

"Because (Matt) Blunt and (Rod) Jetton are for Romney," he replied.

The Republican establishment must despise Marsh, or maybe they roll their eyes and don't take him seriously. Marsh has been labeled as ego-centric, lazy . . . and worse by his critics. But you can bet they start to take him a bit more seriously if he follows through with his promise to shake-up the 2010 State Senate race in District 30. Independent candidacies are longshots everywhere -- but a rift in the G.O.P. slice of the pie has the potential to transform a reliably Republican district into a barnburner.

Line of the Night

“I know something about tailspins, and it’s pretty clear Mitt Romney is in one."

---Republican presidential candidate John McCain Wednesday, responding to rival Mitt Romney's charge that McCain's position on immigration has been inconsistent.

Justice Delayed?

BLUNT WAITS FOR EXTRADITION REQUEST

"Frustrated" Murderer Hasn't Been Transferred

Governor Matt Blunt expressed frustration Wednesday that a confessed serial killer who murdered five Missouri women still hasn't been transferred here to face justice.

You can read more about the chilling case of Timothy Krajcir HERE.

“I am frustrated with this delay, but am not jumping to any conclusions. There is no reason to believe that Illinois does not wish to see Krajcir brought to justice for all of his crimes. Today, I sent a letter to Governor Blagojevich asking if there was a reason for the delay in extraditing Krajcir.

On Decemember 17th, the Governor sent the extradition request to Illinois, seeking "quick approval" from Governor Rod Blagojevich. A Missouri court hearing had been scheduled for Thursday, but Blunt's office says the state of Illinois has not yet released Krajcir to the Cape Girardeau County Sheriff.

Huck Hunted, and On The Hunt

Mike Huckabee kicked off campaigning by bagging a pheasant in Osceola, Iowa today -- eight days before he hopes to score what would be a historic caucus victory in the Hawkeye State.

"You prove that you can shoot, and that if somebody really messes with you with negative campaign ads, they just need to be prepared," Huckabee said, as he playfully jostled with the press corps.

Meanwhile, the latest poll out of Iowa shows Huck's lead narrowing -- but that's to be expected. This is Iowa, after all.

ABC News reports that a conservative group will begin taking aim at Huckabee's immigration plan tonight. The group says its goal is to alert voters that Huckabee's position on immigration may not be in line with the average Iowa Republican voter. BTW: The Club for Growth is determined to bring down Huckabee with large saturated ad buys.

Oh, and not that it matters at this point and time . . . but Huckabee holds a double-digit lead in OOOO-KLAHOMA!

Holiday's Over: Dems Hit Blunt on Energy

Rep. Holsman Calls on Governor to "Reduce GreenHouse Gases"

Blunt Refused to Sign Environment Pledges

Democratic State Rep. Jason Holsman called on Governor Matt Blunt today to join neighboring Governors in endorsing a regional energy-use pact that could improve the environment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Of the 12 states in the Midwestern Governors Association, Missouri was the only one not to sign any of the pro-environment initiatives. The ultimate impact of these initiatives can be debated, but some say Missouri's absence from the conference reinforces the Show-Me State's dependence on energy products like coal.

"Blunt slightly reversed course on December 19th and agreed to some minor components of the compact," reads the release from Rep. Holsman today. "Blunt, however, rejected the plan's most important initiatives: Committing the state to producing 30 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, requiring cleaner coal-fired power plants by 2020 and agreeing to specific goals for measuring energy policies."

Holsman calls the regional energy policy a "blueprint for energy independence." "While other governors in the Midwest are embracing this innovative approach, Governor Blunt is sticking to the status quo. This shortsighted approach will cause Missouri to fall behind other states in the region in air quality and energy independence," Holsman said.

UPDATE . . . Dec. 28th: Rich Chrismer from the Governor's office said the AP story we cited is out-dated. "Governor Blunt signed many of the pro-environment initiatives," Chrismer said. "Additionally only 5 of the 12 states signed onto every section of the agreement," he added. "The other 7 states signed various parts of the agreement without signing onto every section. The link to the Governor's release can be found HERE.

Passion versus Polish

MUST READ WSJ PIECE

Details Differences Between Romney & Huckabee

How will Iowans vote? With their head or with their heart. A Wall-Streeet Journal piece brillantly details the obvious and more subtle differences between the candidacies of Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

From the Journal piece:

Rachel Serianz, 58 years old, of Davenport, heard Mr. Huckabee speak and says he "is more in touch with people from the middle class and lower class." She added, "I like Romney, though, because of his powerful organizational abilities...They both appeal."

Meanwhile, The Washington Times takes aim at Huck's immigration record today with this blistering lead:

Mike Huckabee is overselling his record of cracking down on illegal aliens as governor, claiming he ordered his state police to arrest illegal aliens when in fact he never signed the agreement with federal authorities that would have allowed it.

New Year's In Des Moines

CAUCUS COVERAGE
KY3 WILL TRAVEL TO IOWA NEXT WEEK

KY3 News and the KY3 Political Notebook will travel to Iowa next week to cover the first-in-the nation Iowa caucuses.

The coverage plan is still being tinkered with, but we plan to be in the Hawkeye State for most of next week to provide you with comprehensive local coverage of the caucuses.

Be sure to tune in to KY3 News on Wednesday night, January 2nd for a special preview piece about the final push before the caucuses with a focus on Mike Huckabee's campaign. We'll also be with Huckabee's campaign in downtown Des Moines on caucus night, Wednesday, Jan. 3rd. In the News @ 10, we'll have a live report on the breaking results.

Be sure to check back with the blog several times a day during the week, for up-to-the-hour posts on what we are witnessing on the ground as we trail the candidates, the voters, the media and the madness.

Merry Christmas and a Huckabee New Year?

Candidates Head Back to the Trail on the 26th

After a day of peace, who will pick up the Big Mo'?

THE MCCAIN-HUCK ALLIANCE?

"SUPPLANT ROMNEY"

Iowa Republican frontrunner Mike Huckabee will head back to the campaign trail the day after Christmas, with a visit to Florida to raise money for his surging presidential bid.

Huckabee will attend a fundraising reception with the powerful Florida house Speaker Marco Rubio. The rest of the candidates scatter across Iowa and New Hampshire (with the exception of Rudy, who is also in Florida.)

So what's made Huck a player during the last 8 months? Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard suggests it's because Huckabee can "take it easy." "From the beginning of his candidacy, Huckabee has promoted the idea that everyone needs to lighten up," Barnes writes in his Christmas column.

Meanwhile, Huckabee's daughter is proving just how much Iowa means to her dad. While the rest of the family spent Christmas in Arkansas, Sarah Huckabee decided to remain in Des Moines during the holiday. If one of us is going to stay, all of us are going stay," she said, near a banner that read "Merry Christmas and a Huckabee New Year," according to The Chicago Tribune.

But Democratic politico Joe Trippi, who lead Howard Dean's insurgent campaign back in 2004 and is now a John Edwards adviser, opined that Huckabee doesn't have the resources or the organization to win. Trippi is quoted as saying, "(Huckabee's) candidacy has outstripped his supply line."

It's notable that Huckabee's Iowa lead has narrowed in recent weeks, perhaps due to negative advertisements being run against him, and increased scrutiny from a befuddled media. The Associated Press notes some the attacks are sticking, and that no Republican candidate has yet completely locked down Iowa's Christian conservatives.

Mitt Romney is probably the only threat to Huckabee in Iowa. Meanwhile, John McCain is challenging Romney for the lead in New Hampshire. The conventional wisdom goes -- if Romney loses Iowa and New Hampshire, he's done. If he wins them both, he's on his way to the nomination. So maybe that's why there are reports that Huckabee has struck a deal with McCain to stop Romney.

"Down the road, if Huckabee and McCain with the first two contests, then they may well turn on each other because they may be the only two left standing," political scientist Dante Scala told the Boston Globe. "But for right now, I think their goal of supplanting Romney is bigger than any disagreement with each other."

Locals Plan To Head To Iowa

9 DAYS AND COUNTING
"Iowa will set the table."
"It's the Superbowl . . . I love this game."

Two Springfield residents are planning to head to Iowa in advance of state's first-in-the-nation presidential caucuses to volunteer and witness history.

You can watch my KY3 News @ 10 report HERE.

Republican Matt Lyons, who has flirted with supporting both Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, plans to go door-to-door for the resurgent John McCain. Democrat Nora Walcott hasn't committed to a candidate yet, but wants to see the process firsthand.

"For me, it's the Superbowl almost. I love this game," Walcott said. "Everything's compressed this year. We still have these wide-open races on both sides," she added.

"Good government comes at a price," said Lyons. "And sometimes that price means you get in your car and travel seven hours to help out the candidate of your choice."

Lyons believes Mike Huckabee will narrowly win the Iowa caucuses over Mitt Romney. But he said he thinks McCain can sneak in the mix with a surprise third place finish. "Like a horserace, it's win, place and show. So it's important to get that third ticket."

"I believe Iowans, like the rest of the country are giving John McCain a second look," Lyons added. "Iowa will set the table, and set the tone."

Walcott hopes the trip may even sort out who she may ultimately support when Missouri's February 5th primary rolls around. "I'm extremely open and uncommitted and I'm actually hearing that from Iowans some," she said.

Still, she thinks Missouri will still be relevant a little more than a month from now. "Iowa's the kick off, it's exciting. The Missouri primary also has the potential to be exciting," Walcott said.

SugarPlums, Dancing In Your Head

Here's to those who don't take a break from politics . . . even on a holiday;)

• "HAPPIER THAN EVER BEFORE . . ." For being in the minority, Rep. Roy Blunt seems pretty happy about the way the 2007 Congressional session turned out for the G.O.P. "Our members went home happier than they have in the 11 years I've been here," Blunt said to the Washington Times. "Our members felt like we've taken the weak hand you're dealt in the minority ... and got the maximum impact. Republicans cite moral victories on war funding, S-CHIP and a sustained veto of an embryonic stem-cell research bill as evidence.
• PARDON ME - Gov. Matt Blunt issued six pardons on the eve of Christmas Eve. Pardonees included two thieves and two (second-degree) arsonists. Blunt carefully noted that all the offenses were non-violent, Missouri's Parole Board approved all cases and law enforcement were not opposed. "Ms. Allison-Brown, Mr. Barnes, Mr. Birdwell, Mr. Johnson, Mr. Jordan and Mr. Smart have paid for their mistakes,” said Gov. Blunt. “It is my hope and belief that they will continue to be productive citizens." Pardons and parole can be tricky business for pols. Just ask the Clintons and Mike Huckabee.
• CHRISTMAS IN IRAQ - Rep. Ike Skelton is spending Christmas in Iraq with Kansas Rep. Nancy Boyda, according to the Associated Press. The account says the delegation will share Christmas meals with soldiers and meet with top Commander Gen. David Patreaus.
• THINGS TO REMEMBER - In most national elections about change, the candidate with the most experience almost always loses. Traditionally, the candidates who win their party's nomination have placed in the top 3 in the Iowa caucuses. Neither President Bill Clinton nor President George W. Bush won New Hampshire. Don't underestimate Ron Paul's supporters.

CLOSING ARGUMENTS

11 DAYS UNTIL IOWA
"Nobody Knows What's Going On"
MCCAIN RISING IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
4 Plausible G.O.P. Nominees, No Frontrunner

Once left for dead by the political chattering class, Republican John McCain has crept back within striking distance of Mitt Romney in the state of New Hampshire, according to the freshest poll conducted by the Boston Globe.

N.H. GOP
Mitt Romney 28%
John McCain 25%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Mike Huckabee 10%

The margin of error is about 5%. On the Democratic side, in this same poll, Barack Obama holds a slim 2 point edge over Hillary Clinton. 40% of likely voters in both parties tell the pollsters they are still undecided.

Citing the fluidity in the Republican race, George Will suggested there's a possibility the G.O.P. could still be fighting over its nominee at convention time. "I hold the Olympic record for the most anti-McCain columns ever written . . . That said, you can also make the case that he would be the strongest man in the general election," said Will on ABC's This Week.

NBC Political Director Chuck Todd basically predicted Mitt Romney would lose Iowa. He said the future of Romney's candidacy will depend on how bad. "They're worried they are going to lose Iowa, but they are trying to close the gap," Todd said. "So they look like they have a running start to salvage New Hampshire because their bigger fear right now, the Romney people are absolutely petrified of John McCain," Todd added.

John Harwood of CNBC wouldn't rule out a Romney comeback in Iowa because of his organization there. Still, Mitt Romney is now getting hammered for his explanation about whether his father, former Gov. George Romney, ever appeared with or marched with Martin Luther King. Although Romney mentioned his father and King in a speech, there are now real questions about whether that actually occurred. "The problem is it feeds into this idea that he will say anything it takes to win over a constituency group," Todd argued on Meet the Press today. "I don't know if it goes away . . . Mitt Romney has not been good when the pressure has been on and when the spotlight has been on," he said.

On the Democratic side, E.J. Dionne acknowledged, "Nobody knows what's going on in Iowa." Could the question of experience be what ultimately stops Barack Obama? That's Hillary Clinton's closing argument. Are voters really willing to roll the dice, take a chance . . . for hope? Will argues yes. "If politics is supposed to be exciting, then Obama is the candidate," Will said.

There also seems to be a growing sense that Obama is turning his attention towards Edwards in Iowa, instead of Clinton. The punditry agrees that Obama must see Edwards on the move there. Could Edwards be Obama's real threat to winning the Hawkeye State. What if Hillary places third? If Edwards pulls out a win in Iowa, the Clinton camp hopes that would weaken Obama in New Hampshire. "Hillary Clinton would much rather lose to Edwards than Obama," Harwood said.

"What if its 32-31-30? Clinton's at 30, Edwards is at 32. Is that a victory? It's probably not a victory at that point, and you sort of move on. That's where Edwards could get lost. If he wins Iowa, he needs a little bit of pad between first and second," Todd said of Edwards' long-term chances.

Bottom line: The next week will be tricky for negativity. With many voters focused on church, family and presents, how candidates handle criticism will be extremely important, given how close this race is.

But it looks like us junkies have already gotten our Christmas wish: an unpredictable race for president on both sides.

Rudy Details Sickness in Missouri

"TERRIBLE HEADACHE"

"Got worse all day . . . Got really bad at night"

With his poll numbers plummeting, former national Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani spoke to ABC's George Stephanopoulos Sunday about health problems this week that derailed his campaign schedule and left him in a St. Louis hospital.

On This Week, Giuliani said when he got on the airplane to leave Missouri, pressure from a headache, made it the worst he ever had. He did not detail specifically what type of tests doctors performed.

"After Christmas, he can address it," Giuliani said. "I saw the doctors in St. Louis. They released me, said I was in fine health," he added later.

ADDRESSES POLITICAL HEALTH
"We are not going to win all of them."
"I can run a 50-state campaign . . . Not sure others can . . ."

Giuliani repeated his national strategy, noting that he is focused on Florida and the February 5th states. He said right now he is ahead in 15 to 18 of the 28 or 29 primaries that will take place in January and the beginning of February. In almost the next breath, responding to a question about his fall in the polls in new Hampshire, Giuliani said, "You never know what accounts for polling."

"I don't know who's going to win in Iowa. Somebody's going to win in Iowa. I hope I win in Iowa. This is Christmas time, we can all hope," Giuliani said, laughing.

"We are a long shot," he said, referring to Iowa.

"I believe I'm the candidate who can run a 50-state campaign, as a Republican candidate. I'm not sure that others can do that," he added.

MTP: Paul Sponsored Earmarks

"THE WHOLE PROCESS IS CORRUPT . . .
I VOTE AGAINST EVERYTHING."

Rep. Ron Paul, who's candidacy for president has revolved around the elimination of large amounts of government spending, admitted Sunday he sponsored dozens of federal earmarks for his Congressional district in Texas.

On Meet The Press, Paul explained while he sponsored the earmarks, he did not ultimately vote for them.

Moderator Tim Russert cited an October Houston Chronicle story that reported Paul's district draws a substantial amount of federal flood insurance payments. The Wall Street Journal noted 65 earmark-targeted projects that Paul inserted into bills.

"I've never voted for an earmark in my life," Paul responded to Russert. "I put them in the bill because I represent people who are asking for some of their money back," he said.

Basically, Paul made the case that he is against the system, but won't penalize his own constituents for that failed spending system. "It's like taking a tax credit, if you have a tax credit, I'm against the tax system but I take all my tax credits. I want to get all the money back for the people," Paul said. "That's like saying people shouldn't take their Social Security money," he said.

"The whole process is corrupt. I vote against everything. I vote against it, so I don't endorse the system," Paul said.

MORE FROM PAUL on MTP:

• He would abolish the I.R.S., eliminate the income tax and make up the TRILLION dollar loss by restoring a "sensible foreign policy." That includes bringing home troops from around the world, including Japan, Europe and Korea. "All empires end because the country goes bankrupt," he said. Foreign policy, he said, is the most reasonable place to start saving federal dollars.
  
• Paul has legislation and a constitutional amendment to say that children born here should not automatically be considered U.S. citizens. "Someone who illegally comes in this country as a drug dealer, is he under the jurisdiction, and their children deserve citizenship?."
• He believes all drugs should be decriminalized. If you want to regulate drugs, it should be at the state level, he said. The federal government should have no role, Paul argued. "Prescription drugs are a greater danger than hard drugs," Paul said.
• Paul said he has no intention to run as an independent candidate in 2008. "I have no intention to do that," he said. Russert responded, "No intention's a wiggle word." Paul: "I deserve one wiggle now and then Tim."

Line of the Night

"Don't tell Chris Shays I said that."

---Rep. Roy Blunt, on a possible strategy in 2008 to pick up enough seats to take back control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Blunt suggested to CQ Politics the G.O.P. could pick up 24 swing district seats held currently by Democrats, without retaining eight of their own to regain the majority. Shays is consistently one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country due to his mixed district. It should be noted Blunt said this statement with a laugh, as reported by CQ.

Blunt Asks for $2 Million For Kids Health

Gov. Matt Blunt is calling for more than $2 million dollars to place mental health workers directly in schools.

Blunt's proposal calls for a two-year cost sharing grant program in partnership with local community mental health centers and school districts.

Blunt cited the Columbine tragedy as a reminder "that we cannot ignore some of our children have special needs that must be identified and addressed early."

"This funding will help ensure that Missouri students receive the assistance they need to stay emotionally healthy and perform well in school," Blunt said in a release.

Rep. Bob Dixon and Springfield Public Schools superintendent Norm Ridder were both quoted in the Governor's release. Rep. Dixon said the plan would "reduce disruptions that hinder learning for all students.”

Estimates from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) indicate that 5 percent of the population of children between 4 and 17 demonstrate serious mental health problems needing specialized treatment. According to the Governor's office, research says more than one in ten children will contemplate suicide during their school years.

When You Talk Illegals . . . You Talk To Lou . .

Or Kitty Pilgrim?

From the Governor's office:
Gov. Matt Blunt will be a guest on CNN’s Lou Dobbs Tonight with Kitty Pilgrim Thursday, December 20, between 6:30 p.m. and 7 p.m. CDT.

For more on Blunt's immigration plan, click HERE.

Clinton HQ to Open in St. Louis Saturday

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign headquarters in Missouri will be located in St. Louis.

The announcement comes from St. Louis Rep. Rachel Storch in a campaign release.

The release invites you to to come to Saturday's open house at 11 a.m.

Here's the address:
Hillary Clinton for President, Missouri Office 8300 Manchester Road St. Louis, MO 63144

You can click below for more info:
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/MOopenhouse

Just 47 days until Missouri's primary . . .

While We Were Auditing

Not sure what I'm going to do with all this time now that the city of Springfield's 3 audits have been completed . . .

Oh wait . . .

Now news of another possible state audit of the City of Ozark. Claude Kinser tells KY3 News the mayor there told him that some criminal activity may have led to missing city money. The Mayor denies that.

Meanwhile . . .

• Governor Blunt announced he wants $2.5 million to expand cancer screenings for women under the new "Missouri HealthNet."
• Missouri House Democrats proposed a "Homeowners Bill of Rights." Proposed legislation would require state licensing of mortgage brokers. Another bill would cap payday lender rates at 36%.
• Mike Huckabee now has something to lose. The lead.
• The State Dems hit Rudy while he campaigned in Columbia, saying he lacks the judgement to be the next president and implying he's unethical. Then Rudy got sick, and had to stay the night at a St. Louis hospital. He'll be released Thursday afternoon to get back on the trail to try and win back his drop in recent national polls.
• Illegal Immigration seems to be the current firing ground in the race for Governor. Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer says Jay Nixon refuses to support E-Verify, which the Governor wants to mandate.

Anything else . . .?

Oh, looksy HERE . . . Tom Tancredo just endorsed Mitt Romney.

He's For Real

HUCK TIED WITH RUDY FOR TOP OF GOP PACK

New Reuters/Zogby Poll

27 Missouri Lawmakers Endorse

Sen. Scott, Rep. Wood Among Supporters

Mike Huckabee has surged into a virtual tie with front-runner Rudy Giuliani in the national 2008 Republican presidential race two weeks before the first contest, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Rudy Giuliani 23%

Mike Huckabee 22%

"Huckabee is on a roll, he has gotten an enormous amount of publicity and he is doing very well with conservatives, who at least for now appear to have found a candidate," pollster John Zogby said.

Here's the list of the 27 Missouri lawmakers who have endorsed Mike Huckabee. Rep. Dennis Wood and Senator Delbert Scott are among Huckabee's supporters.

POWER PLAY: CU Audit Raises Legal Questions

ICY AUDIT STINGS CITY UTILITIES
Tension Filled Room
Targets Include Subsidies, Spending, Salaries
Auditor Montee Calls Spending "Unconstitutional"
CU Wants Finding Removed
"City Utilities opinion is they've done nothing wrong ever."

City Utilities customers may be paying too much for some utility services as a result of subsidization of other departments and spending that may be unconstitutional, according to an audit presented by Susan Montee Tuesday night.

You can watch my KY3 News @ 10 report and read the full audit report HERE.

City Utilities vigorously defended its financial decisions and said they contribute to the quality of life in the Springfield area. The Utility also called the unconstitutional finding "serious" and requested it be removed from the public report. "To make such an allegation without substance or evidence casts unfounded doubt on legitimate business activities," reads the Auditee's Response.

The Auditor said $259,000 in spending on picnics, and donations to other entities like community groups and schools is a clear violation of the Missouri Constitution. Montee said the Attorney General may ultimately have to resolve the disagreement.

Customer Ed Marble called CU "a good utility," but called its response to the audit "pathetic." "I think the main thing I saw was CU not being open with financial disclosure," Marble said. Montee said the main difference between this audit and the audit of the city is "the willingness to work on recommendations." She said the city seemed more willing to embrace change than the utility.

Former CU Board Chair Virginia Fry said she didn't understand Montee's response. She said the utility is always looking for ways to improve. But General Manager John Twitty declined to name any specific recommendation CU would be immediately willing to adopt. Twitty will appear live on Ozarks Today Tuesday morning to talk more about the findings.