The Meaning of Iowa

Before we get to New Hampshire, watch my KY3 News @ 10 report on what victories in Iowa meant for Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, and the challenges these two unique candidates face going forward.

Thanks For The Memories, Des Moines

FUN WITH VIDEO . . . After a historic caucus night, we thought we'd cap off our Iowa coverage with a brief behind-the-scenes look at the convention center in Des Moines. This clip was edited by my tireless colleague, photojournalist Taka Yokoyama (who really does the hard work). And yes, I really was interviewed by a Southeastern Asian television station.

"Stay Tuned . . . We'll Be There"

HUCK CAMPAIGN MANAGER'S MESSAGE TO MISSOURI

The KY3 Political Notebook caught up with Mike Huckabee's national campaign manager, Chip Saltzman, moments after the networks called the 2008 Republican Iowa caucuses for his candidate.

Saltzman talked about why he believed Huckabee scored such a big win over Mitt Romney Thursday. He also told Missourians to "stay tuned," that Huckabee would be campaigning there in the weeks ahead.

My KY3 News @ 10 Report from Des Moines

. . . can be viewed HERE.

VIDEO: Huckabee's Speech

Watch a clip of Mike Huckabee's victory speech from the Embassy Suites hotel in downtown Des Moines.

Scenes From A Victory Party

In Huckabee and Obama Wins, Populism Reigns

WINNERS BUCK ESTABLISHMENT
RECORD TURNOUT ON BOTH SIDES

DES MOINES -- In surprising and substantial victories Thursday night, both Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee bucked their party's establishment and won the 2008 Iowa caucuses with populist themes.

Neither Obama and Huckabee are the establishment candidates in their respective parties. Both claimed large margins Thursday night. Both mostly ran positive campaigns that spoke of uniting the country under a broad theme of change. Immediately, Mike Huckabee becomes the most underrated, underestimated force on the Republican side and Barack Obama is the most likely next president of the United States.

DEMS
Barack Obama 38%
John Edwards 29.7%
Hillary Clinton 29.4%

GOP
Mike Huckabee 34%
Mitt Romney 25%

More than 221,000 Iowa Democrats showed up to caucus -- smashing the old record. But the G.O.P. also bucked conventional wisdom by bringing around 90,000 to the caucuses -- also a record.

5 QUESTIONS

1. Will this loss by Romney propel McCain to victory in New Hampshire, knocking Romney out of the race and setting up a McCain vs. Huckabee showdown in South Carolina?

2. Will the next poll out of New Hampshire show Barack Obama with a lead equal or greater than 5 points?

3. Is Fred Thompson's Iowa showing enough to keep him in the race?

4. How long does John Edwards plan to stay in this race?

5. Where does Huckabee need to place in New Hampshire?

IT'S HUCKABEE!

NO CONCESSION YET

BUT ROMNEY DOESN'T DENY HUCK WIN

So Say FOX News Channel.

Romney replies: "I hope you're also projecting I'm in second."

Huge cheers erupting from Huckabee camp . . .

Could it really be over that quick?

Early Numbers: Huck Looks Good

It's waaay early.

But we're now here at the Embassy Suite hotel where Mike Huckabee is scheduled to arrive within the hour.

Campaign numbers show Huckabee with an early edge. Campaign manager Chip Saltzman said: "It's early, but were very encouraged by the early numbers."

Asked if 2nd place finish was ok, Romney spokeswoman tells local Des Moines affiliate: "Yeah, it's ok."

Watch My Ky3 News @ 6 Report . . .

HERE.

Source: Richardson Supporters Will Move to Obama

DEVELOPING . . . A Missouri volunteer who is working closely with Sen. Barack Obama's campaign staff here tells the KY3 Political Notebook that Gov. Bill Richardson has instructed his supporters to line up with Obama if Richardson does not prove viable in some caucus precincts.

There are also reports circulating around the convention center in Des Moines that Sen. Joe Biden is urging his supporters to make Obama their second choice . . .

GAMETIME

THE STAGE IS SET . . . . . . HERE'S THE SPREAD

The 2008 Iowa Caucuses are underway at this hour.

Thousands of Iowans are beginning to pick a president in 1,781 different precincts.

Republican results will come in first. We could know the winner within the hour. Democrats, with their complicated "viability" formula, will take longer to decide.

The food is being served, the stage is set.

It's gametime, folks.

VIDEO: Romney Makes No Predictions

WEST DES MOINES -- Mitt Romney made his final public appearance at the Kum and Go corporate headquarters in West Des Moines Thursday afternoon, making no predictions about his 2-way fight with Mike Huckabee in the Iowa caucuses.

The contrast between the Romney and Huckabee events we've been to is stark. At this Romney event, everyone inside looked and smelled great, dressed in J. Crew wear and loafers. But I counted at least as many members of the media in attendance (at least 55) as Romney supporters (60?).

This Romney-Huckabee race is coming down to a battle between passion versus organization.

Just a few hours until gametime!

VIDEO: Watch Edwards Caucus Day Speech

Courtesy of my photographer Taka Yokoyama, here's a video clip of John Edwards' early morning campaign rally with steelworkers in eastern Des Moines.

"This Movement Will Go Forward"

EDWARDS VOWS TO FIGHT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

DES MOINES -- Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards told a gathering of local steelworkers this morning that their movement for economic fairness and against corporate greed would continue beyond Iowa.

"This movement is going to go forward," Edwards told cheering union members at U.S. Steelworkers Local 164 in eastern blue-collar Des Moines.

Crowds at the event chanted, "We love Elizabeth, We Love John. We Want To See Them On The White House Lawn!"

When Edwards entered the room from his campaign bus, his first line took a shot at his two rivals: "Two campaigns believed their money would be inevitable."

Edwards seemed to hint that no matter tonight's result, he would continue to campaign in New Hampshire and beyond. Many in the political chattering class believe Edwards needs to win Iowa to prove viable going forward.

"The energy and momentum behind this campaign can't be stopped," he said. "I'm proud to be arm and arm with you in this fight."

He then asked volunteers to travel with him to New Hampshire tomorrow after a "brief but intense victory party tonight."

Final Poll: Obama By 4, Huck By 6

REUTERS/C-SPAN/ZOGBY POLL
"There is a clear Clinton fade."

DES MOINES -- The final poll before the 2008 Iowa caucuses begins shows Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with leads over their respective rivals.

IOWA G.O.P.
Mike Huckabee 31%
Mitt Romney 25%
Fred Thompson 11%
John McCain 10%
Ron Paul 10%

(914 likely caucus goers, 3% MOE)


IOWA DEMS
Barack Obama 31% John Edwards 27% Hillary Clinton 24%

(908 likely caucus goers, 3% MOE)
"There is a clear Clinton fade," pollster John Zogby said. "None of it has been dramatic, but it has been stable."

On Huck, Zogby concluded: "Huckabee is not pulling away, but it's now a six-point lead and he has moved above 30 percent."

Twas The Night Before Caucus

DES MOINES -- After a tough night, I leave you with the view from Des Moines on caucus eve.

Coverage Note

Just a quick coverage note -- we promised we'd be live from Des Moines tonight to preview the Iowa caucuses.

A major technical problem with our satellite truck prevented us from doing that, and right now we are in a holding pattern for television coverage. I apologize for the problem. Believe me, there's no one more disappointed right now than me.

So after I seethed for a few minutes, I decided the best thing I could put my anger towards is continuing to bring you continuous updates right here.

TV is great. But often it's not pretty, and sometimes it doesn't work.

Thank God for blogs.

Now back to politics . . .

Live From Des Moines Tonight

KY3 CAUCUS COVERAGE
Tonight @ 10

DES MOINES -- We'll have our first live report from Iowa tonight on KY3 News @ 10. Be sure to tune in.

Caucus day, you can look for reports all day long beginning with KY3 News @ Noon. I'll be live from downtown Des Moines Thursday on KY3 News @ 5 & 6. We'll be inside Mike Huckabee's campaign party for KY3 News @ 10.

But enough about coverage, how about some predictions?

The Prince of Darkness has made his. Bob Novak is picking Barack Obama and Mitt Romney to pull out wins in the Hawkeye State. He also thinks Hillary will finish third.

Why Romney over Huck? "Romney is close or leading in the post-Christmas polls. This is probably good enough for him. He has a much bigger team in Iowa and much more money to spend than do Huckabee and the other Republican candidates. Romney's campaign should be better than Huckabee's at getting its supporters to their caucuses," writes Novak.

Novak joins most of the political chattering class in picking Romney.

Other nuggets of news this Caucus Eve:

• LATE NIGHT -- Most of the candidates are outside Des Moines and campaigning in rural areas or other cities today. Huckabee is flying to California to do a taping of The Tonight Show. The politicos are questioning the timing. Leave Iowa now? What's up Huck's sleeve? Is he that comfortable with his standing here, or is he just looking to bolster his national standing? Hillary is doing a "surprise" appearance on Letterman tonight as well.
• THE EXPECTATION GAME -- All types of fun musings from the trail today. Huckabee is going out of his way to praise Bush -- after hammering his administration for a "bunker mentality" on foreign policy. Huck is also calling himself "the underdog," Romney, is also playing the expectations game, saying he'll either win "the gold or silver."
• ROMNEY/CLINTON VS. OBAMA/HUCK -- In watching the candidates over the passed few days, and speaking with Iowans, journalists and other observers, it's striking the similarities people find with candidates from opposing parties. Clinton and Romney are the establishment candidates. Their events are more subdued, and offer less soaring rhetoric and overall energy. Obama and Huckabee put on a show -- their crowds want to hop on stage with the candidate. I also saw women at both Obama and Huckabee events seemingly moved to tears. Others who have been on the ground here note the same sense. Huck and Obama seem to be the insurgent rock stars. Romney and Clinton are the establishment, who you can't count out for organizational reasons. The question is: If Obama wins, does Huck come along? Same question with Hil and Mitt. Then again, John Edwards could throw a wrinkle in all of this.

McCain Aims For 3rd Ticket Out of Iowa

"Like A Horse Race . . . Win, Place, Show"

URBANDALE, IA -- Springfield resident Matt Lyons joined other volunteers from around the country to make phone calls for John McCain in Iowa, in hopes of a strong third place finish that could propel him to a primary victory in New Hampshire.

"Like a horse race, win, place and show. And third place is a good finish," Lyons said between phone calls at McCain's Urbandale office.

"With the recent events in Pakistan, it's underscored for me to have an experienced, steady hand in the White House," Lyons said.

Iowans all across the state are getting bombarded with phone calls today. Most of the calls go to committed supporters, reminding them of the caucus time (7 p.m.) and location. Making sure voters actually get to the caucus is one of the biggest challenges for campaigns here.

Anecdotally, Lyons said he hasn't gotten many people who said they would be switching away from McCain. The McCain camp believes its biggest rival for third is Fred Thompson. "I'm feeling pretty good about things," Lyons said.