Missouri Gives Its Pols End of Year Polling Boost

DECEMBER BUMP
Missourians gave their leaders early Christmas presents this weekend, delivering a batch of bolstered approval numbers to their stockings, according to the latest SurveyUSA polling.

President Obama, Gov. Jay Nixon and Sen. Kit Bond all saw their approval ratings inch up over the past month. Sen. Claire McCaskill's approval number stayed stable at 48 percent.

December Approval Ratings:
Sen. Kit Bond 49% Approve
Gov. Jay Nixon 49% Approve
Sen. Claire McCaskill 48% Approve
President Obama 45% Approve

600 adults surveyed Dec. 11-13th/MOE 4.1%
***
But overall 2009 was a tough year for all four politicians.

Since January, Bond has lost 6 points and McCaskill has lost four points. Nixon and Obama saw more dramatic drops in their first year. The governor has lost 14 points since January and the president has experienced a 20 point decline.

Senator Stability

CONSISTENT CLAIRE

Sen. Claire McCaskill's job approval rating has remained strikingly consistent over the last year, despite a raucous summer of town hall meetings and a surging national tide against Democrats and President Obama.

McCaskill's most recent approval rating, according to SurveyUSA, is 48 percent.

Throughout 2009, McCaskill's approval has never climbed higher than 54 percent and never dipped below 47 percent in polling with a 4 point margin of error.

In fact, her approval rating over the last 11 months comes in at an average of 50.6 percent.

Compared to the state's two other leading politicians, McCaskill's numbers have remained remarkably stable. The state's senior Republican, Sen. Kit Bond, peaked with a 59 percent approval rating back in February, but fell 14 points to 45 percent in September. Bond's November approval is 47 percent. Gov. Jay Nixon has seen a more consistent decline. In January, he debuted with a 63 percent approval rating. In eleven months, the first-term Democratic Governor has slid 19 points to a November rating of 44 percent approval. McCaskill's rating has swung a total of seven points all year.

Nixon's Approval Tanks To 44%

BLACK FRIDAY

Jay Nixon's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point in his Governorship, falling a total of 19 points since he was inaugurated, according to new SurveyUSA data.

Nixon's November approval rating of 44 percent is just the latest troubling sign for Democrats of all stripes -- who rallied to sweeping victories across the country just a year ago but now find themselves accountable to an electorate wearily waiting for economic progress.

It also marks the first time the poll has showed more Missourians disapproving of Nixon than approving.

The numbers show that independents are the driving factor in Nixon's declining polling position. In October, Nixon won 52 percent of independents. This month, he lost nine points among that voting block. Nixon also shed seven points among self-described moderates, who shifted their previous approval to the undecided column.

There's also a striking loss of liberals within the crosstabs. Just 58 percent of self-described liberals approve of the Governor. Nixon isn't known as a liberal firebrand and October's 71 percent number could be an outlier. But it's notable that his support among Republicans and Democrats stayed stable over the last month, while his overall number took a significant hit.

A look at Nixon's tracking line shows August to be the month where the Democratic Governor's polling support began to erode.

Nixon's support in southwest Missouri has also taken a dive, falling to just 36 percent. That's a 13-point drop in the Ozarks in just one month. Nixon still wins the St. Louis area, but by a smaller margin.

The November SurveyUSA poll lines up with a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey released last week, which showed Nixon at 42 percent approval.

But some dismissed the PPP poll as an outlier because of the high amount of respondents that registered as "undecided."

Still, two polls showing the Governor polling in the low to mid 40's just a year after a smashing electoral route should raise some alarm bells among Nixon aides and supporters.

Obama Falls To New Low in Missouri

COLD NOVEMBER RAIN

President Obama has fallen to his lowest approval rating in Missouri since taking office, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll.

APPROVE 38%
DISAPPROVE 58%
UNSURE 4%
Nov. 20-22, 600 adults, 4% MOE

The president has dropped 27 points since inauguration, 13 points since June and ten points in the last month.

***
KEY NUMBERS:

• Just 27% of young people (18-34) approve, the lowest percentage of support of all age groups
• 25% of blacks disapprove
• 56% of singles approve compared to just 31% of those married (the bulk of the sample)
• Just 12% of Republicans approve/74% of Democrats approve
• He loses independents 33%-65%
• Just 22% approve in Southwest Missouri
  

Party Affiliation Demographic:
31 percent polled were Republicans, 30 percent Democrats, 32 percent independents

Moore Riding High In Early Primary Poll

"Interesting . . . but means nothing"

"PROBABLY" in race until the end

7th District GOP Congressional candidate Darrell Moore said late Friday that a new poll showing him ahead in the primary race to replace Roy Blunt was encouraging, interesting and basically meaningless.

"This poll is interesting, but right now it means nothing," Moore said. "It's clear we have high name recognition and support to go along with it," he added.

In a poll of 301 likely primary voters, the Wilson Research Strategies survey found that Moore has a leg up on most of his competitors among "decided" voters and "all voters."

Among those decided, the Greene County prosecutor takes 26 percent, tying Joplin Sen. Gary Nodler. Among all voters, Moore and Nodler are knotted again at just 16 percent. Forty percent of all voters remain undecided.

The poll was taken Nov. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 5.6 percent.

While the horse race numbers are largely meaningless this early in a scrambled and crowded 7th District contest, the data does show Moore as a significant force, despite being outraised financially and arguably ignored by most of his opponents.

Moore has the highest favorable to unfavorable ratio -- 27 percent to 2 percent.

The poll, paid for by the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC, also oddly includes Greene County Circuit Clerk Steve Helms as a potential candidate. Helms has not yet announced a candidacy. It includes Mike Moon, but does not include college instructor Jeff Wisdom or Nixa businessman Mike Wardell.

Reached Friday night, Moore said he had not seen the poll. But when read the results, he said it was "too early" to draw any real conclusions from the numbers.

"Most people really haven't focused on it. It's encouraging. I haven't even been down to Joplin to campaign yet. And this may be the year, that grassroots and getting your people out to vote, actually makes the difference," he said.

Moore is competing in a seven-way GOP primary with auctioneer Billy Long, State Sens. Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler as well as Wisdom, Moon and Wardell.

Asked if he would stay in the race through primary day, Moore hedged just a bit, adding a slight caveat. "At this point, the answer to that is yes. I would be happier if we could raise some more money," he said.

"I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

He said no one has approached him about getting out of the race.

Moore raised about $28,845 during the last fundraising quarter, but as of September 30th, only had $11,144 left to spend.

But Moore seems convinced money won't determine the 7th District contest.

"If money won every election, Mitt Romney should've been the nominee of the Republican party last time," Moore said. It also should be noted that in his first race for prosecutor in 1998, Moore said he was outspent by double digits in both the primary and the general election.

Moore would not disclose his fundraising goal for the 4th quarter but said, "I don't think we'll have to spend $400 or $500-thousand dollars."

Occupied with two upcoming trials, Moore said his campaign will ramp up its visibility and spending in March.

"We will not be able to run as much TV as the others. But I think we'll have enough media to remind people. I don't have to build name recognition and a record of public service, like the others," he said.

"TV is great, but if people don't know you, if you don't have the soldiers working, it won't carry the day," Moore added. "I'm not out to raise the most money, but I don't think we have to."

PPP Poll: Matt Blunt Could Hurt Dad's U.S. Senate Chances

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM BLUNT SPOKESMAN RESPONDS --

"HIGHLY MISLEADING"

Matt Blunt is Missouri's least popular Governor during the past 25 years, and voters could hold that against his father in the 2010 election cycle, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

A survey of the state's Governors found that just 29 percent of respondents chose Matt Blunt as their favorite state leader.

Blunt's father, Congressman Roy Blunt will likely face another candidate with a family legacy, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, next year in nationally tracked race for U.S. Senate.

But Carnahan appears to have a leg up on genetic coattails.

Former Gov. Mel Carnahan, Robin's father, was chosen by 32 percent of respondents as their favorite. Only former Gov. John Ashcroft is more popular, according to the survey.

"Matt Blunt clearly was not a popular Governor, and that could hurt his father next year. Carnahan's father on the other hand seems to be generally well remembered. It will be interesting to see how much those things matter next year in a race that's likely to be closely contested," writes PPP in a blog entry.

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM: Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer called the data "highly misleading."

"The poll shows Governor Blunt is Missouri's third most popular governor and conservative icon John Ashcroft is the most popular governor. The fact that a Democrat poll finds John Ashcroft is the most popular governor ought to be concerning to Democrats," said Chrismer.

A poll released earlier this week showed Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Blunt in the race for U.S. Senate.

Meanwhile, 42 percent approve of the job Gov. Jay Nixon is doing, according to a separate poll taken.

"In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers. Nixon is one of only four Governors PPP has polled on all year with a disapproval rating under 30% (the others being Jack Markell of Delaware, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and Pat Quinn of Illinois," writes PPP in a blog entry.

"The 33% of voters with no opinion of him is unusually high though, an indication that he may need to do more to step up his visibility across the state," PPP writes.

Purgason "Encouraged" By Public Policy Poll

Longshot U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Purgason said he's encouraged by a new Public Policy Polling survey that shows his support in double-digits and noted that Congressman Roy Blunt's high unfavorable numbers in the Ozarks exemplify the problems of the Republican Party's frontrunner.

The poll, conducted between November 13 and 15th, shows Purgason trailing Blunt, 53% to 16%in a primary match-up. But in a potential general election match-up, as a candidate that 75 percent of the state doesn't know, Purgason only loses to Democrat Robin Carnahan by seven points.

"When you work grassroots, you start by planting seeds," Purgason said in an interview with The Notebook Wednesday night.

"WE'RE GOING TO BE ON DEFENSE"

"Polls don't have much affect on me. I have my basic core values and that's what I'm going to do no matter the poll, but I think it's encouraging," Purgason added. "I think what it tells you is that there's a strong anti-incumbency mood out there and that's what I've been seeing as I travel the state. The two parties are so blurred in their leadership."

Purgason pointed to Blunt's 38% favorable rating in the 417-Ozarks area code. "Those aren't very good numbers. We haven't even seen the negative attacks on Congressman Blunt yet. The bridge to nowhere, the TARP bailouts, the cash for clunkers. We're going to get into a fight that we don't have to have. We're going to be on defense," he said.

In the Ozarks, voters are divided over Blunt's favorability, 38%-38%. Carnahan's favorability in 417-land is 26%. Purgason's is only 10 percent.

"NOT IN THIS FOR A DEAL"

But in all of the crosstabs of the data, Purgason's biggest obstacle is name identification. Three-quarters of the state's potential voters don't seem to have enough information to render an opinion on him.

Purgason acknowledges that fundraising has been a challenge. "It's tough to do. Until filing opens and people know I'm serious, people are trying to figure out if I'm serious about this. I've had people say, what are you holding out for? But I'm not in this for a deal."

Asked about potential fundraising opportunities, Purgason said he has been in touch with the conservative Washington, D.C. based group, The Club for Growth. But he seemed hesitant about attempting to tap into money from interest groups outside Missouri.

"If a pro-second Amendment or pro-life group or conservative group wanted to give me money, I would accept it. I don't have any problems taking money from people who agree with my core values. But I really have a problem with so much money coming from Washington into Missouri races," Purgason said, adding that he knows he's "a little nieve."

"Look at all the outside money in the Blunt campaign. I would like to stay away from all that," he said.

When pressed, Purgason said he would accept the Club for Growth's backing if offered. "I would like to have their help, I'm just not thrilled about going to Washington to get it. And I can't afford the plane ticket right now," he said.

But the Caulfield State Senator realizes the only way he'll become a real threat for the GOP nomination, is if he's able to raise some cash.

At the end of the September, Purgason reported raising only around $11,000, with just $1,067 on hand to spend. He reported a total of about 20 contributors.

"I honestly think if I had half the money either of them had," he said, referring to Blunt and Carnahan, "I could win this race."

"A Lead As Thin As November Ice"

"In some ways, George Bush's lead is as thin as November ice."

--Dan Rather on Election Night 2004

Take the relentless ads by the League of Conservation Voters targeting Roy Blunt and the cadence of criticism building against Robin Carnahan for her silence on specifics . . . and toss it all out.

After ten months of early posturing and positioning, Public Policy Polling is here to report that nothing much has changed in Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race.

In January, Public Policy Polling gave Carnahan a immeasurable 1 point advantage. And in its latest survey, Carnahan maintains the same statistically insignificant lead. One point. 45-44, Robin.

At first glance, this has to be positive news for the Blunt camp. In this case, the tie goes to the battered. Blunt has had more to overcome in the first ten months and has sustained more fire from his foes.

"It is significant that the race is tied given the fact that Robin Carnahan's liberal allies have already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in false and negative TV and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt," wrote Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer in an memo sent to media outlets Wednesday.

"Since April, six attack ads have aired including one paid for by environmental extremists that was airing while this poll was taken. These false attacks have been made without paid response by the Blunt campaign, the GOP or any group. These type of results give us reason for great optimism but this represents only a snapshot in time," Chrismer added.

Conveniently enough, there are plenty of other mixed signals in this poll -- enough to give every side something favorable to point to.

Carnahan holds a 10-point lead over Blunt on her favorability rating. Forty percent see her positively, compared to just 30 percent for Blunt. Yet Blunt wins independents handily, 44%-32%. That's partly, perhaps, because 58 percent polled say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that’s made this race highly competitive."

The most glaring portion of the poll is the GOP primary race, where the unknown, underfunded, often ignored Sen. Chuck Purgason is polling 16 percent against Blunt.

Sure, Blunt holds a 53%-16% advantage, as expected. But why, after Blunt cleared the hurdles of two credible Republican threats (Sarah Steelman, Tom Schweich), is a third -- Purgason -- polling in double-digits.

It's likely his votes are coming from the populist right, the section of the party that is fed up with bailouts, cash for clunkers and deficit spending. But 16 percent is a fair chunk of the GOP primary vote for a guy that's mostly been ignored by his opponent and the media.

Even more striking, is that Purgason polls pretty well against Carnahan, being that it's 11 months from the general. PPP has Purgason trailing the Secretary of State by just seven points (42%-35%) in November.

And you could make the argument that while much less known, Purgason carries much less baggage than Blunt, who can expect a barrage of negative ads to attack everything from his lobbyist ties to his bailout votes to what he had for breakfast while George Bush was president.

Chrismer said "we believe we are in an even better position than this poll suggests. But even this Democrat firm is showing this is a very close race."

But another political consultant tells The Notebook, "This is a really bad environment for Democrats right now, but Robin is still doing well in light of that. That's a good indication of the strength of Robin as a candidate, the weakness of Blunt, or both, depending on one's viewpoint.

A very close race -- But we didn't need a poll to tell us that.

PPP surveyed 763 Missouri voters from November 13th to 15th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%.

In The Field

WHAT the CHUCK?

In the field conducting a new Missouri U.S. Senate race poll, Public Policy Polling leaks in a Tweet Saturday that Sen. Chuck Purgason may be polling in double-digits against Congressman Roy Blunt in the 2010 GOP primary.

From the Twitterboard: "Interesting finding on our Mo. poll so far- Blunt struggling to crack 50 against little known primary opponent," wrote Tom Jensen.

This would be the first public poll on the 2010 GOP U.S. Senate primary in Missouri.

Purgason, a State Senator from Caulfield, is significantly trailing Blunt in the early markers of fundraising, organization and endorsements. He's also complained that Blunt has repeatedly ignored him. But if the poll shows him in double-digits, it could help advance his argument that he's a credible candidate with a message that deserves coverage.

No word on when Public Policy Polling plans to release this poll.

In January, a PPP poll showed a statistical dead heat between Democrat Robin Carnahan and Blunt. (Carnahan 45%, Blunt 44% 3.3% MOE)

Poll: 50% Greene County Residents Believe Missouri Heading in Right Direction

A new Missouri State University poll shows Greene County residents are a bit more optimistic about their financial futures than you might think.

And a plurality believe the state is heading in the right direction.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

QUESTION: Do you think that a year from now, you and your family will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now?

BETTER OFF 38%
WORSE OFF 10%
ABOUT THE SAME 47%

QUESTION: Do you think things in Missouri are generally heading in the right direction or wrong direction?

RIGHT DIRECTION 50%
WRONG DIRECTION 32%
NOT SURE 17%

Both polls based on 591 responses from Greene County residents between Sept. 26th and Oct. 11th. The margin of error is 4%.

PLUS: MSU POLLING DIRECTOR CALFANO ON WHAT RIGHT DIRECTION NUMBER MEANS FOR GOV. NIXON:



"I also think it might be a welcome sense of relief for Governor Nixon."

*WATCH CLIPS ABOVE*

MORE from the polls:

Future Economic Thoughts:
38% Democrats believe they'll be better off; 44% of Republicans
60% 18-34 year olds believe they'll be better off; Just 21% of those 55 & Older

State of Missouri Right Direction/Wrong Direction:
REPUBLICANS: 50% Right Direction, 34% Wrong Direction
DEMOCRATS 60% Right Direction, 27% Wrong Direction
MALES 47% Right Direction, 36% Wrong Direction
FEMALES 53% Right Direction, 29% Wrong Direction

More Polling

Missouri State University's political science department releases numbers on Greene County voters perception of the economy and if they believe Missouri is heading in the right or wrong direction.

DEVELOPING . . .

FOR Ky3 News @ 10

Poll Shows Marginal Support For Pension Sales Tax

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Less than a week before Springfield's big decision on a police and fire pension tax, a new poll released exclusively to Ky3 News shows a closely divided contest.

The Missouri State University poll shows a slight, but barely measurable edge for those supportive of a pension sales tax.

"I'm not that surprised," said polling director Brian Calfano of the results. "I would've been more surprised if it looked like a blow out on either end," he said.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

MSU's First Political Poll . . .

Revealed Exclusively on Ky3 News @ 10

DEVELOPING . . .

Missouri State Students Begin Political Polling

A Missouri State University political science class has begun political polling on a variety of issues in Greene County with high hopes of delving into Congressional and U.S. Senate races next year.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

Right now, students are in the process of polling 500 residents on the police and fire pension tax that will face voters in November, as well as right direction/wrong direction numbers for the state, and economic and education questions.

The students hope to have the calling completed by this weekend, and then will break down and weigh the data. Under the supervision of professor Brian Calfano, the class hopes to be ready to release the data by the end of the month.

*WATCH COMMENTS FROM MSU SENIOR KELBY DICKENSHEET ABOVE*

Rasmussen Has Blunt & Carnahan Tied

*2010 U.S. SENATE*
BLUNT 46%
CARNAHAN 46%

A brand new Rasmussen Reports survey shows Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race knotted at 46%.

Eleven months from the election, just 5% of Missouri voters are undecided.

Blunt takes men by 17 points; Carnahan holds a 13 point lead among women. Blunt takes independents by 8 points.

SURPRISE: Carnahan's negatives are HIGHER than Blunt's.
Blunt's favorable/unfavorable is 57%-33%
Carnahan's favorable/unfavorable is 52%-42%

"Nearly all the numbers in this early survey show an uncommonly close match between two members of well-known Missouri political families," Rasmussen writes.

ALSO:
Just 44% approve of President Obama but 58% approve of Gov. Jay Nixon

Read all the details HERE.

The right-leaning Missouri Record's Patrick Tuohey breaks it down: "If I was advising either campaign—and I am not—I would suggest that Carnahan’s stealth campaign is not in her best interest. The report shows that demographic groups important to her think health care will increase costs, add to the deficit, and will result in middle class tax increases. Moreover, as she fails to tell voters about her and her policy preferences, she allows opponents to do that for her. (Unfavorable ratings are very difficult to lower.)." Read the rest HERE.

McCaskill's Town Hall Bump?

The August SurveyUSA polling shows Sen. Claire McCaskill receiving a boost, with a 52% job approval rate. That's up five points from her July numbers.

Sure, the margin of error is 4 points. But could it be that McCaskill received a slight bump from holding a flurry of open townhall meetings all across the state?

It's hard to say. But here's what we can surmise from looking at the data we have: In July, SurveyUSA counted 41% of their respondents as Democrats -- the same as in August. What did change was the amount of Republicans SurveyUSA included in its count.

The modification is likely a result of a percentage of Missouri independents fleeing into the Republican column because of fears about a government run healthcare plan.

SurveyUSA is guessing that shift equates to 3 percent. In July, 27 percent of its polling pool was made up of Republicans, compared to 30% in August. That re-calculation consequently dropped the number of independents from 26% to 23%.

In July, 24% of Republicans approved of McCaskill. That jumped to 31% in August -- a 7 point upward swing for the Missouri moderate. She also got a boost from her own party, going from 69% among Democrats in July to 77% in August. (There was just a one point shift among independents.)

So, the question may be a tad counter intuitive? Despite the yelling, the interruptions, the protests, the raw anger -- did McCaskill's run of, at times, raucous townhalls aid her politically? Did slightly more Republicans who disagree with McCaskill on the public option give her the benefit of the doubt on the way she's handling her job?

In Southwest Missouri, her approval rating soared to 52% (up 9 points from 43% in July). (With the ire out there right now on the right, I'd guess that number is a bit high.)

It's true the August polling was conducted before McCaskill stood in the lion's den at the civic center in West Plains and at the Gillioz in Springfield. It's also plausible that the polling could be a fluke.

But if her September numbers turn up solid and stable, she may just make standing in front of your foes and taking fire -- 'en vogue' -- just in time for fall.

ALSO: Sen. Bond's approval was down slightly to 51%. In Missouri, President Obama's approval rating fell to 48% (down 7 points from July.)

Drip, Drip . . . Drop: Nixon Falls In Poll

From 60 to 50

SurveyUSA polling shows Governor Jay Nixon has lost 10 points in his job approval rating over the last month, dropping to 50% -- a typical benchmarch for political trouble.

While the polling does not specifically indicate the reasons for the drop, some Democrats, speaking on the condition of anonymity to The Notebook to talk freely, said they believe the E-Coligate scandal as well as the Governor's cuts to tourism are direct causes of Nixon's polling erosion.

50% Approve; 41% Disapprove

Read the poll HERE.

From July to August:

• Nixon has lost 15 points among females
• 17 points among blacks
• 15 points among the unemployed
• 20 points among Republicans
• 6 points among Democrats
• 5 points among Independents
• 27 points among Northern Missourians
• 8 points among Southwest Missourians

Note: The party affiliation break-down changed slightly from July to August. In July, 27% polled were Republicans compared to 30% in August.

ALSO: Of the 12 other Governor's polled, Nixon marks still ranks him higher than just two of his peers -- Alabama's Bob Riley (61%) and New Mexico's Bill Richardson (55%)

One Dem e-mails, "It's a pretty scary drop."
***
AND: Karen Dillon, the woman who broke the DNR story, ushers in September . . .
Even as a Missouri Senate committee investigates the monthlong delay of the report, Joe Bindbeutel told The Kansas City Star in an exclusive interview that the decision was his.

“It was a mistake,” said Bindbeutel, a former deputy director at the Department of Natural Resources.

But Bindbeutel’s version of events continues to raise questions about the role of Gov. Jay Nixon’s office in the controversy.

Her entire MUST-READ investigative piece is HERE.

Obama Lands 55% Missouri Approval in July

55% of Missourians approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing in July, according to the latest SurveyUSA tracking poll.

That's actually UP 4 points from June.

The poll was taken July 17th-19th with a 4% margin of error. The poll samples Democrats as 41% of the electorate and Republicans just 27%.

In Southwest Missouri, just 43% approved of Obama but his approval rating was actually lower in Southeast Missouri, where it sat at 32%.

***

ALSO IN JULY:

Sen. Kit Bond: 53% job approval (DOWN 2 points from June)

Sen. Claire McCaskill 47% job approval (DOWN 5 points from June)

Bond's stability comes from splitting both Democrats and independents; McCaskill suffers the perils of being considered a moderate -- She wins 24% of Republicans, but only 69% of Democrats. She lost independents 39%-55%.

In Southwest Missouri, Bond's approval rating (46%) is just 3 points higher than McCaskill's (43%).

E.Coli Be Damned (?)

SurveyUSA polling shows Gov. Jay Nixon maintaining high approval numbers in July.

60% of Missourians approve of the job the Governor is doing, according to the poll.

Just 31% disapprove.

The poll's date is July 20th. It's not clear yet if the polling took place before July 16th. That's the date the Kansas City Star first reported that the Department of Natural Resources acknowledged it withheld a report for four weeks that showed the Lake of the Ozarks had E. coli above safe levels.

Complete crosstabs aren't available yet.

Gallup Midterms: Obama Scores 62% in Missouri

Sixty-two percent of Missourians approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing from January to June, according to a daily tracking poll released by Gallup.

Gallup tracks Obama's overall job approval ratings each day as part of Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Obama's midyear rating in Missouri falls within the "average" range of all 50 states surveyed. His 62% approval, 29% disapproval rating in Missouri was based on a sampling of 1,819 individuals reached by phone.

Obama's highest mid-year job ratings: Washington, D.C. where 92% approve & Hawaii, where 75% approve

The lowest: 46% in Wyoming and 49% in Alaska

AND: Bismarck . . . Hello . . . North Dakota gave Obama his highest approval rating of any state he did not carry in the 2008 presidential election.

Read it ALL HERE.