He's For Real

HUCK TIED WITH RUDY FOR TOP OF GOP PACK

New Reuters/Zogby Poll

27 Missouri Lawmakers Endorse

Sen. Scott, Rep. Wood Among Supporters

Mike Huckabee has surged into a virtual tie with front-runner Rudy Giuliani in the national 2008 Republican presidential race two weeks before the first contest, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

Rudy Giuliani 23%

Mike Huckabee 22%

"Huckabee is on a roll, he has gotten an enormous amount of publicity and he is doing very well with conservatives, who at least for now appear to have found a candidate," pollster John Zogby said.

Here's the list of the 27 Missouri lawmakers who have endorsed Mike Huckabee. Rep. Dennis Wood and Senator Delbert Scott are among Huckabee's supporters.

Name That Capitol

Back from a trip to one of our state Capitol's . . .

(Hint: It's in the timezone.) Guesses anyone?

Refreshed, and rarin' to go . . . So much to catch-up on . . . but here are some biggies:

*The Des Moines Register has endorsed Hillary Clinton and John McCain. The Boston Globe also gave McCain the nod. Once again, the media is McCain's base.

*Mike Huckabee continues to build leads . . . uh . . . Everywhere. But is the Baptist Minister the Howard Dean or Jimmy Carter of this cycle? Meanwhile, the hits keep coming on Huck. The latest scrutiny focuses on comments he made about a theology degree.

*Mitt Romney is not about to go down without swinging. He now is attacking Huckabee for "running from the wrong party." Romney's money does mean he has organization in Iowa, which means he still has a shot. Iowa is as much about hiring precinct captains and getting them to understand the system as it is about actual raw support. The conventional wisdom is that if Huckabee wins Iowa, it's a wide-open field . . . but if Romney is able to now come back and win it . . . he could march to the nomination.

*If I was forced to make predictions today, I'd say Huckabee would narrowly defeat Romney in Iowa and Obama would beat Clinton by 4 to 5 points. But predictions are hard. And all they do is get political reporters in trouble. Just ask weathermen. If the the polls leading up to caucus night are anything like the local winter storm forecasts for this week, we're in for some surprises. And, that's what makes it fun, right?

BTW: The answer is to the above question is . . . Austin.

Wednesday Afternoon Homework

WATCH THE G.O.P. DEBATE
Last Face-Off Before Iowa
@ 1 P.M on Cable Nets

The Des Moines Register Republican debate will be held in Johnson, Iowa today. The Register's Carolyn Washburn will moderate. You haven't heard of her. But she's got a rep of being diligent, pointed and tough. Let's hope so. FOX News, CNN, MSNBC and C-SPAN will all broadcast the festivities. It's the last throw down before the Iowa caucuses. So eat your vegetables and watch the whole thing. (Then report back here, I'll be traveling.)

Mike Huckabee will be attacked. The question is, by who? And how often?

Illegal immigration is the top issue in Iowa. Mitt Romney knows the score and he's losing. Look for him to make distinctions with Huckabee on that hot-button issue. But expect Huckabee to have a ringer in his pocket to volley back.

Will Rudy be nice to Huck? He passed on an opportunity to bash him on Meet The Press. The guess is Fred won't be. The dirty secret is that Thompson really may have more riding on this encounter than anyone else. Time to make your move, lazy fox. Or is it too late? Iran intelligence, ethics charges, AIDS and parole policy could all be fodder for rivals to Huckabee. What will they touch? Can he weather the storm?

It's game-time folks.

PS: The Dems do the same thing at the same time Thursday.

***ALSO . . . I'll be traveling the next 3 days, so blogging will be light or postponed.

Don't Buy The Polls Or The Drudge Bomb

If you've been watching the Drudge Report the last week, you know someone feeding Drudge his stuff is desperately out to derail Mike Huckabee's campaign for president.

Today, the king of the Interweb is out with a bomb that questions Huckabee's electability in the general election.

DEMS HOLD FIRE ON HUCKABEE -- SEE "EASY KILL" IN GENERAL ELECTION . . . blasts the headline. It goes on to quote a Democrat saying "He'll easily be their McGovern."

On top of all this, CNN is out with a batch of new polling that shows Huckabee losing to all three top Democratic candidates by double-digits. He loses to Hillary by 10 points, Obama by 15 points and Edwards by a whopping 25 points.

Buyin' this yet? You shouldn't be.

Just over a month ago, Huckabee was in single digits in some polls. A few months back, he was lagging well behind in Iowa, dependent on a respectable "straw poll" finish to stay viable. He now has to be considered one of the G.O.P. frontrunners.

The bottom line is: there's lots of reasons to vote for or against ALL of the candidates running for president, including Huckabee. Read his immigration plan. Take a look at the judgement decisions he made as Governor regarding parolees and gifts. What about that comment on AIDS . . . does it disturb you?

But if you're looking at national polls to gauge Huckabee's electability this far out, you haven't yet learned the lesson: A heckuva lot can change real quickly.

And if anyone believes John Edwards or anyone is going to be Huckabee or anyone else by 25 points next November . . . . well, you probably don't even have the money for the bridge I was gonna sell you.

Would Huckabee vs. Obama Be Best for America?

HUCK RISES IN 2 NATIONAL POLLS

OBAMA CLOSES IN ON HIL'

Are they for real, or are voters just flirting with a dream?

---

ROMNEY GOES NEGATIVE

CLINTON CAMP DIGS FOR DIRT

Will attacks sink "sunny" Huck, "fresh" Barack?

Mike Huckabee is showing more momentum in two national poll released Monday. The former Arkansas Governor is now second to Rudy Giuliani in the New York Times-CBS poll and the CNN poll. While he still trails nationally by double-digits, a batch of early-state polls show Barack Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

There are too many questions to ponder here. Is Mike Huckabee a rational nominee for the Republican party or will he just become an Iowa fluke? Mitt Romney seems not to be taking any chances, launching a negative television ad in the Hawkeye State that takes on Huckabee on immigration. But with polls showing Rudy Giuliani remaining the "most electable" candidate, will the G.O.P. be willing to take the risk with Huckabee -- or will they revert to establishment status -- and back a better-financed, household name?

The Oprah impact still has the punditry puzzled. Celebrity endorsements don't matter. But Oprah is no simple celebrity? And look at those crowds. 66-thousand in 3 states. They are trying to turn them into voters, but will they pick themselves off the couch to caucus? Remember these polls were before the 'O impact. And now there's more evidence the Clinton camp is nervous, and digging for dirt. Next week's polls will be more fun to watch.

Here's a thought: Remember the theory that the candidate with the sun in his face always wins in the end. On both sides, it seems that Huckabee and Obama are probably the sunniest, most optimistic and genuine candidates respectively. Hillary and Rudy are known for being tough, hard, maybe competent -- but are those the most important characteristics this year? Or will people dare to vote for HOPE . . . on both sides. No matter which side you favor, imagine the type of campaign that would be waged between Hillary and Rudy. Then, imagine a campaign between Huckabee and Obama. Which would be more positive? More uplifting? Which would be better for the country? Which one do you want?

Two O's In Iowa; Huckabee's Skeletons

THE OPRAH FACTOR
Rousing Speech Makes Case Against "Washington Experience"
---
HUCKABEE HITS KEEP COMING
Homosexuality: "Aberrant, Unnatural"
In '92, advocated "isolating" AIDS patients

Talk show superstar Oprah Winfrey rallied for Barack Obama in Des Moines, Iowa Saturday in front of an estimated crowd of more than 20-thousand people.

"These are dangerous times, you can feel it. We need a leader who shows us how to hope again in America as a force for peace," Winfrey told the enthusiastic crowd.

"I believe Barack Obama will bring statesmanship to the White House," she said. "He's a man who knows who we are and knows who we can be."

Question: Does Oprah's endorsement mean more than the typical celebrity endorsement? How does Obama turn the enthusiasm into votes?

AP UNCOVERS HUCKABEE COMMENTS ON GAYS
The Associated Press is out with a story about Mike Huckabee's comments on gays and AIDS in a 1992 survey submitted when he was running for the United States Senate.

The two bombshell quotes from Huckabee in 1992:

• "If the federal government is truly serious about doing something with the AIDS virus, we need to take steps that would isolate the carriers of this plague.”

• “I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk.”

It might be sad to ponder, but could these old quotes actually help him with Evangelical voters in Iowa and South Carolina who privately hold these beliefs?

Huckabee has responded: “In the late 80’s and early 90’s we were still learning about the virus that causes AIDS. My concern…was to deal with the virus using the same public health protocols that medical science and public health professionals would use with any infectious disease." Read Huck's full response at THE PAGE.

This Can't Be Right . . . Can It?

HUCKABEE SURGES IN IOWA, LEADS 2-to-1 OVER ROMNEY

New Newsweek Poll Confirms Huck Surge

A new Newsweek poll shows Mike Huckabee with a stunning 22 point lead over Mitt Romney in the first in the nation caucus state of Iowa. Huckabee is up 33 points from the September poll. Rudy Giuliani has seemed to have lost steam and is now vulnerable to finishing worse than third.

IOWA GOP

Huckabee 39%

Romney 17%

Thompson 10%

*Margin of error is 7 points

Huckabee: A National Force?

Seems like a new AP-Ipsos poll confirms that Huckabee is now a national contender.

Another hat tip to The Page, (my new favorite political blog/website):

G.O.P. Nationally

Rudy Giuliani 26%

Mike Huckabee 18%

John McCain 13%

Mitt Romney 12%

Fred Thompson 11%

Then, there's these new Nevada numbers that show Huck moving up in this obscure state:

NEVADA G.O.P.

Mitt Romney 29%

Mike Huckabee 23%

Rudy Giuliani 17%

Here It Comes . . .

First big attack ad against Mike Huckabee, with a hat tip to Mark Halperin at The Page.

Sponsored by the Club for Growth.

Will run in Iowa, South Carolina and on national cable . . .

Hits Huckabee hard on taxes . . .

Watch it HERE.

Huckabee's World Turned Upside Down

In a way, Mike Huckabee's first run for president has already ended.

With his second-tier status now history, comes an entire new campaign -- with full scrutiny, tougher attacks, more thorough questions and (naturally) more mistakes.

Huckabee's most glaring misstep in the last 24 hours was his inability to answer a question about the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. He didn't know about it, he said. And not knowing something on the campaign trail is probably going to happen again, he added.

The parole of a convicted rapist turned murderer during Huckabee's watch is also getting added scrutiny. The media is digging up old quotes from the Arkansas parole board. They charge Huckabee leaned on the board to parole Wayne Dumond, who later murdered a person in Missouri. Huckabee says they aren't telling the truth.

Huckabee is also taking some heat for his ambiguous answers about the Mormon faith. Is Mitt Romney a Christian? He won't judge. Is the Mormon faith a cult? Again, that's for you to decide. Some are hinting that Huckabee is hoping to ride subtle religious bigotry to a caucus win in Iowa.

There is some good news for Huck. The New Hampshire National Education Association is slated to endorse Huckabee Thursday. If it pans out, it will be the first time the state affiliate chooses a candidate in the G.O.P. primary.

Then, there are the polls, which have been Huckabee's best friend. Just pick a poll, and you'll find some good news for the former Arkansas Governor. For the first time, a New Hampshire poll shows him in double-digits (11%). In Iowa, Strategic Vision has him up 3 over Mitt Romney. (Zogby puts him down 1.)

The most wild news of all might be a Rasumussen poll, which now shows him the national Republican leader. That's right, nationwide. Huckabee 20%, Giuliani 17%.

This is not a dream. But it is far from over. The next days and weeks will only get tougher for Huck. It will be the test of his political life, at a time when it has all turned upside down, so fast.

The Case Against Mike Huckabee

So yeah, we've been touting all the news that going in Huckabee's favor . . .

Of course we're not rooting, but it's hard not to admire an underfunded underdog campaign no matter what your persuasion.

Still, to be fair, here's an AP article that highlights the case against Huckabee:

1) SOFT ON TAXES, AND CRIME? . . . He hiked millions of dollars in taxes for highways and paroled a rapist that later killed a woman right here in Missouri.
2) ROMNEY'S IOWA ORGANIZATION . . . Is Better. Huckabee has so far relied on a full-time team of 2 in Iowa. But Iowa is all about organization, and the one thing Romney's money will buy him there is people to help organize his supporters on caucus night. Huckabee still needs to catch up there or Romney will best him.
3) CAN HE GO THE DISTANCE? Like it or not, people still talk about Huckabee as a "great V.P." He'll need to WIN Iowa to change that. But in the next month, he'll probably need his poll numbers to improve nationally and at least in South Carolina to prove he's more than a one-state-wonder.

What It All Means

The Huckabee surge . . . the flurry of new polls . . . just a month to go before Iowa.

Here's a quick-take on what it all means:

1) POLL FATIGUE

Both frontrunners -- Hillary & Rudy -- have seen their national numbers fall over the last month. Of the two, Rudy's seem more troubling for his candidacy. That's because the Republican race remains much more fluid than the Democratic race, where there are 2 main contenders. The smart people remind us it's very hard to poll Iowa. Don't fall into the trap of believing Obama is the new man to beat in Iowa. If anything, it's probably still a virtual tie. The latest PEW poll has Clinton back up 31-26%. There's still more pressure on him to win than her. Oh, and Marc Ambinder reminds us that if the Iowa caucuses were held tonight, based on organization alone, John Edwards would win.

2) THE HUCKABEE SURGE

The national media is discovering this week what we knew back in April. That Huckabee is a likable, credible conservative candidate who would become a contender at some point. (Ok, so maybe I wouldn't of bet on him leading Iowa this soon but . . .) Huckabee is everywhere. Hardball. The cover of USA Today. Nightline. But now the hits will come hard and fast. Has he peaked too early? My guess is that Huckabee, with his wit and charm, will be able to weather the attacks that will come. He's already proving he's turned his Iowa candidacy into a national one. USA Today and Rasmussen both have him 2nd in national Republican polls. I can't imagine him doing that well in New Hampshire (based on the state's poor history of supporting southern candidates), so South Carolina could be the place he makes his stand. One more tidbit about Huckabee in Iowa: he's confident. How do I know? His schedule shows he'll spend less time there over the next few weeks, and more time in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

3) LOWERING EXPECTATIONS

The only candidate who doesn't HAVE to win Iowa is Hillary Clinton. But Mitt Romney is now trying to convince you otherwise. The guy has spent $7 million dollars in Iowa to Huckabee's estimated $300,000 and now he's telling The Washington Post a "top-three" finish would suit him just fine. He's the tortoise to Huckabee's hare? Wow. And a top-two finish in New Hampshire? Romney has looked at his sagging numbers and is starting to lower expectations. Don't buy that he doesn't need to win Iowa. He does, and based on organization alone, he still should. You think his upcoming speech on his faith has anything to do with hearing the footsteps?

Making Corn Into Peaches

If Mike Huckabee is able to win Iowa or come close, his next best shot may be down in South Carolina.

A new Clemson University poll shows Huck in the hunt there:

S.C. GOP
Mitt Romney 17%
Fred Thompson 15%
Mike Huckabee 13%
John McCain 11%

The latest numbers out of New Hampshire still show Huckabee in single digits there.

Rasmussen: Huckabee Passes Romney In Iowa

Hours before a critical CNN-YouTube debate between the Republican candidates for president, a new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Mike Huckabee with a slight edge over Mitt Romney in the first in the nation caucus state of Iowa.

IOWA G.O.P.
Mike Huckabee 28%
Mitt Romney 25%
Rudy Giuliani 12%
Fred Thompson 11%

This poll mirrors other polls taken over the last month showing underdog Huckabee gaining on or even passing Romney.

"Given the margin of error, the challenges of determining the relatively small number of people who will participate in a caucus, and other factors, the race is far too close to call at this point in time. However, the fact that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner in Iowa reflects a stunning change in the race," writes Rasmussen.

Key numbers:
*48% of Evangelicals support Huckabee; Romney gets 16%
*41% of likely voters say they still might change their mind
*53% of Huckabee's supporters say they are certain they'll vote for him
*46% of caucus-goers think Romney will win Iowa; that number drops to 25% for Huckabee

Also: The Associated Press is out with a stinging story on Huckabee today, which says the former Arkansas Governor has mislead the public about his record on ethics complaints, immigration and taxes.

Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Program

Time back home with the fam' and then a nasty bout with the flu have caused a blackout in postings . . . but with the small miracle of antibiotics, I hope to be back to business.

Here are some things that have piqued my interest to start the final week of November:

• This 2nd Mike Huckabee ad began running in Iowa this week. "Believe" is not Chuck Norris approved, but instead aims to highlight Huckabee's conservative credentials and the "principals" he stands for. The Prince of Darkness demurs, calling Huckabee "The False Conservative."
• The Hillary Clinton express is fighting back this week. An interview with Katie Couric revealed the Senator has never even contemplated losing. This just as a new Zogby poll shows Clinton trailing all of the major Republican candidates in general election match-ups --- including Huckabee.
• Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are ratcheting up their attacks on each other. What's worse? Appointing a judge who allowed a killer to go free and kill again -OR- recommending a homeland security chief who was later indicted?
• Still, despite -- or maybe because of -- the fluid nature of the Republican race, Marc Ambinder reports Republicans are expecting a low Iowa caucus turnout. Estimates now range between 75,000 - 95,000 G.O.P. caucus goers -- that's 30,000 less than Democrats predict.

Robertson Backs Rudy, Brownback Joins McCain

Prominent Christian and conservative leader Pat Robertson has endorsed Rudy Giuliani for President. (Think Mitt Romney is surprised?)

Conservative U.S. Senator Sam Brownback announced he's backing Sen. John McCain for President. (Think Mike Huckabee is miffed?) "While I respect all of the Republicans running for president this year, John McCain is the only candidate who can rally the Reagan coalition of conservatives, Independents, and conservative Democrats needed to defeat Hillary Clinton or any other Democrat in the general election next year," Sen. Brownback said in a statement. "John McCain has spent a lifetime standing up for human rights around the world, including a consistent 24-year pro-life record of protecting the rights of the unborn. John McCain alone has the courage, leadership and character to lead our party to victory in 2008 while keeping faith with our most cherished values -- life, faith and family."

But can Huckabee really win Iowa? Dick Morris thinks so.

Huckabee Hits Thompson on Abortion

With his standing in Iowa and national polls rising, former Arkansas Mike Huckabee took aim at Fred Thompson today for his unwillingness to support a constitutional amendment to ban abortion.

On Meet the Press Sunday, Thompson told Tim Russert he did not support the criminalization of abortion. Huckabee called Thompson's comments "disappointing and disheartening" today in an e-mail to supporters.

"Senator Thompson's comments were disappointing and disheartening for those who were expecting him to be a solid voice for conservatives. The marriage and life amendments are critical issues for those of us who have been on the front lines of these cultural battles. Sen. Thompson's philosophy seems to be more 'cut and run' when it comes to these issues, rather than stand and lead," Huckabee wrote in the e-mail.

Huckabee said, as president, he "would fight for passage of a human life amendment."

"My position on the sanctity of life has always been clear and consistent. No candidate has a stronger record on the sanctity of life than I do," Huckabee said.

Thompson responded swiftly on FoxNews. Here's video, via National Review's The Corner. "I don’t need to justify myself to the Governor. … Governor Huckabee talks about this, I suppose, because it is the only conservative position he has got. People talk about sanctuary cities, he apparently wanted a sanctuary state in Arkansas. He is very weak on immigration policy. He was one of the highest taxing governors that we had in this country... so I can understand why he might want to talk solely about this issue," Thompson said.

Huckabee's Conservative Creds Questioned in Arkansas

Mike Huckabee's hometurf of Arkansas isn't as solid for him as you might have thought, according to an article by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette.

"As his campaign continues the long slog to the state’s Feb. 5 primary, it has become clear Huckabee can’t count on rock-solid Republican support. Privately, some Republicans in central and northwestern Arkansas question his commitment to what they say are the bedrock principles of fiscal conservatism," writes Daniel Nasaw.

State of The Race '08

This morning's Meet The Press produced some news nuggets worth bantering about, on this final day of fundraising for the 3rd quarter.

Bill Clinton thinks there's 2 fundamental questions driving the Republican presidential race. 1) Can Mitt Romney hold his leads in Iowa and New Hampshire if he doesn't move up in the national polls? 2) Can Rudy Giuliani maintain his national lead if he doesn't win Iowa or New Hampshire.

Clinton also thinks Mike Huckabee is the only darkhorse candidate in the field that could make a place. "He's the best speaker. As he said, he's extremely conservative, but he's not mad at anybody about it," Clinton said.

Washington Post political reporter Dan Balz doesn't think many of the Republican voters in Iowa know which candidate they will caucus for come January. Balz thinks Romney's support is soft. He also offers some hope to Huckabee. "If Governor Huckabee can consolidate the religious social conservative vote out there, he's going to surprise one of the top four if not a couple of the top four and embarrass somebody out there," Balz said.

Conservative commentator Pat Buchanan thinks it's essentially a Mitt Romney versus Rudy Giuliani race. "If I were Rudy, I'd get a lot of money into Huckabee in Iowa so he knocks off (Romney) . . . you've got to slow down Romney from three straight victories. You can't let him go 3-0," Buchanan said.

On the Democratic side, Buchanan said, "If Obama doesn't win Iowa, this game is over." Buchanan said Hillary would rather have Edwards beat her in Iowa than Obama because he believes Edwards isn't a national candidate, while Obama is.

Rudy-Huckabee '08?

Hillary Clinton fared pretty well on the Sunday morning talk circuit.

Conservative David Brooks called her presidential. Drudge is reporting that a new book says Bush thinks she'll be the nominee. And look for more stories on the falling momentum of Barack Obama.

So what's the G.O.P. ticket to beating Hillary Clinton?

A former Clinton adviser says Rudy and Huckabee.

From Human Events:

The political consultant best known as one of the architects of Bill Clinton's political rise predicted this morning that Rudy Giuliani will most likely be the Republican nominee for president and will choose Mike Huckabee as his running mate.