7th District Power Rankings

This is the inaugural installment of a new monthly Political Notebook survey of the candidates for the 7th Congressional District and an unscientific ranking of each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
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The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

1. Billy Long - On the only two real pieces of empirical evidence we have, Long looks like the leader. He outraised the establishment during quarter one, with an impressive $145K fundraising haul. And he showcased his personal wealth by dropping 100 G's of his own. He begins with strong name identification (48%), an outsider's message, a cowboy hat and a charming southern twang. Long bolts out of the gate, propelled by anti-political likability and personal charisma. And by the looks of his finance report, he's already peeled off some of the traditional GOP donors. He's also a political novice, and promised to make it fun, which makes him the candidate in the field most likely to make a fatal mistake. Still, he's an Ozarks original. (Let's wait to see what happens when the consultants get a hold of him.) But, get some meat on those policy bones and Long may be most dangerous candidate in the field.

2. Jack Goodman - Goodman's entry into the race was no surprise. It was said he'd been being groomed for the position when Mr. Blunt decided to depart. Goodman is the anti-Long: Slim, soft-spoken, and suited up with political experience. Despite the populist environment, having the establishment still counts for something. Goodman pulled a coup when Reps. Shane Schoeller and Jay Wasson decided to step aside, but some Republicans are grumbling that he lacks the spark necessary to carry the 7th with the stature that's required in the conservative breadbasket. With Long in the race, it makes that charisma gap even starker. Goodman's been busy as a studious Senator. His real ramp up period comes mid May. That's why his second quarter, out-of-session campaign finance report will be a key barometer to measure come July.

3. Gary Nodler - He leads in the only private poll made public. But it was clearly designed to pump him up, and Nodler's been a bit cagey about his 2010 intentions. He's sending some signals he's not interested, that he'd rather travel the world with his wife than haul back and forth to Washington to be part of the Republican minority. But he's also quietly feeling out support, and keeping an eye on his rivals moves. The question is: Does a man who ran for Congress and lost, ever really lose the itch? And how do you pass up an open seat opportunity when you are the lion in the forest? Did we mention he's Appropriations Chair? If no one impresses Nodler (and it's doubtful anyone will), look for the Joplin Senator to get into the race -- but on his own terms. Of course, the minute he gets in, Long may just Steelmanize him, and call him "just another white guy in a suit."

4. John Putnam - He's not taken seriously by the political professionals, but as a Fair Tax advocate he automatically draws a small, but significant slice of support. Putnam, chairman of the Jasper County GOP, has recently been showing up at Tea Parties with fiery speeches. He's drawing crowds and winning good reviews -- simply for his tax reform message. That gives him a base of enthusiastic supporters to tap into. Putnam has yet to announce any official candidacy.

5. Jeff Wisdom - Who is Jeff Wisdom? We're still trying to figure it out. But this 39-year-old college professor was impressive at his campaign announcement, just for the sheer fact of the confidence he exuded. And he came out of nowhere. Is this the 7th's Seabiscuit? An Iraq veteran, Wisdom checks all the right conservative boxes -- but he separated himself by openly taking on Roy Blunt the day he announced. Taking on the man who could top your party's ticket in 2010 is quite the risk, but he gets credit for some political chutzpah. Now let's see him organize.

6. Kevin Elmer - The Nixa alderman has been quietly laying the groundwork for a campaign for months, but has not yet announced. That could change this May. Speaking to College Republicans at Missouri State recently, Elmer acknowledged he was nervous. But so far, he's the only person on the list who has articulated a clear set of principals and ideas he would follow in Congress. Term limits, no pay raise, work towards the Fair Tax. It's general but it's a start. Elmer will likely have to run a shoestring campaign and that will take a ton of gritty work. The Notebook would like to see him debate Wisdom for the "dark horse" crown.

7. The Unknown - Despite the list before you, there's still room for another compelling candidate with a niche or a different following. How about a candidate from Branson? Or, why not a woman? We dare not say "a moderate," but someone who strays from one of the GOP litmus tests? Sure, it's still the Ozarks. But it is almost 2010 folks.

8. B.J. Marsh - He's flirted with a candidacy, but that's B.J. for ya. The former central Springfield state representative has battled health problems, and endorsed Jay Nixon for Governor (yikes!). B.J.'s a tried and true moderate, which makes him a boffo interview, but a less than attractive candidate for primary voters. Still, his tourism business gives him hearty name I.D. But if he still has the itch, he may instead decide to rattle Bob Dixon's cage in the 2010 State Senate contest.

9. Hal Donaldson - On March 5th, Convoy of Hope president Hal Donaldson announced he had formed an exploratory committee. Almost two months later, we haven't heard a peep. The strongest signal Donaldson sent was his hire of former Matt Blunt/Sarah Steelman communications specialist Spence Jackson. Jackson is well-respected, and the hire of the likable spokesman seemed to show that Donaldson was serious. But he's gone dark since then. Lingering questions: Will he need to step down from his Convoy post if he runs -- and is it worth the risk? And is Tom Carter raising him any money?

10. Steve Helms - The Greene County Circuit Clerk said he's considering a run because none of the others in the field get him excited. The question is: Who does Helms excite? With all these other political hands to feed, Helms has to seriously consider whether he'd give up the seat he was just re-elected to, for the longest of longshots. One person that might be rooting for Helms to jump in? Gary Nodler. The more Springfield-centered candidates dive in, the more it divides up the vote, the better it is for the king of Joplin.

Got your own list? Thoughts about ours?
Start a debate on our TWITTER page.

Our next 7th District Power Ranking will be delivered on May 31st.

Tourism Complains About A Broken Funding Promise for Branson

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

*Watch additional interview clips from Sen. Jack Goodman and State Tourism Commission member Kelly Swanson above*

More than a month after the Governor promised new dollars for tourism, some in the Branson area are asking Jay Nixon to show them the money.

"To make a promise and then back out of that promise, is not very good. That's not doing a lot for the Governor as far as good will towards tourism," said Swanson, who owns the Port of Kimberling. "We're behind the 8-ball, and there's nothing we can do. We can't catch up," she said.

NIXON SPOKESMAN RESPONDS:

"The entire $1 million is being released, with the remainder to go out over the next several weeks. Since the money could not be spent all at once, there was not a need to release it all at once. Again, it's clear that the Governor is fulfilling his promise to release this money for Missouri tourism this fiscal year," said spokesman Scott Holste. "Neither the Governor nor the news release reference a majority of money going for Branson-specific promotion. The point of restoring the million dollars was to boost tourism statewide, with the Governor's expectation that attracting visitors to Branson and to the All-Star festivities in St.Louis would be the primary focus. We will continue to work with Tourism Commission toward these goals," Holste added.

ALSO In The Vid Above: Swanson said it's her understanding that Nixon requested that a portion of the funding go to the All-Star game as a condition for restoring the entire $1 million.

Bond: Military Moving Too Slowly on New Humvees

Sen. Kit Bond is worried that the military is moving too slow to get new armored Humvees to Afghanistan.

USA TODAY reports that in August, commanders in Afghanistan asked for about 370 of the new all-terrain versions of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle to deal with the country's rugged roads and terrain. That request topped 4,000 in November.

Bond, an early backer of the vehicles, said, "I'm not yet convinced that the military has learned the the tragic lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan — our enemy will continue to search for ways to kill our troops and our acquisition process must be flexible enough to respond quickly to emerging threats."

LeVota Pops Off About Rules

WELCOME TO THE CIRCUS

House Minority Leader Paul LeVota goes after the Republicans for introducing an amendment during the stimulus funding debate without accompanying it with a decreasing amendment.

Republican Budget Chair Allen Icet said the move to add funding without subtracting it was permissible, because the House was dealing with federal stimulus dollars -- NOT state general revenue.

But LeVota popped off about the entire budget process, complaining that the spending bill never went through the Budget Committee and calling the appropriations process "a circus."

"I find it objectionable that people would use the rules at their own discretion and not be consistent about it," LeVota said.

When LeVota gets gaveled by Republican Speaker Pro Tem Bryan Pratt to stay on subject, LeVota responds with biting sarcasm: "Thank you Mr. Speaker for allowing me to speak because I'm a state representative elected by 35,000 people . . ."

A plan to spend $336 million of federal stimulus money on various projects across the state was defeated in the Missouri House Thursday.

The Whip: Claire on Chrysler, Swine Flu & Immigration

KY3 News spoke to Sen. Claire McCaskill via satellite from Washington Thursday to talk about new illegal immigration efforts, Chysler's bankruptcy, the Swine Flu and health care reform.

ON NEW ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT: "The Obama administration has decided to crack down . . .This is a change that we desperately needed." Under new government guidelines issued Thursday to Immigration and Customs Enforcement field offices, agents will be instructed to take aim at employers and supervisors for prosecution "through the use of carefully planned criminal investigations."

ON THE CHRYSLER BANKRUPTCY: "It's probably good news . . . We can't throw good money after bad." The automaker said it would close its plants temporarily, beginning Monday.

ON SWINE FLU: "This is the flu . . . I don't think people should be overly alarmed."

ON HEALTH CARE REFORM: "I think you're going to see a bill on the president's desk before the end of the year."

*WATCH HER FULL ANSWERS ABOVE*

Define "Right Now"

TOURISM TUSSLE
Six weeks ago, Governor Nixon promised to restore $1 million dollars in funding that would significantly benefit Branson tourism almost immediately.

It hasn't happened.

The Nixon administration contends it never promised a majority of the funds would benefit Branson -- and says it doesn't need to release the funds all at once.

Tonight on KY3 News @ 10 -- why some in Taney County tourism feel hung out to dry.

*Watch a preview above*

House Clears Tax Cut With Stimulus Funds

UPDATED @ 5:51 PM: The House voted to reject a stimulus spending bill but passed a permanent half a percent state income tax cut as the Jefferson City budget battle rolled on Thursday.

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The House voted 82-68 to reject the stimulus spending after some members described it as pork and suggested it should be saved for next year.

The story below outlines the battle:

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

It's being billed as the largest tax cut plan in Missouri history -- but Democrats call it a gimmick.

"This is the GOP's desperation plan," said House Minority Leader Paul LeVota. "They are scrambling at the last minute of the session, they're trying to come up with an absolutely fiscally irresponsible plan," LeVota added.

Democrats want to use the plan to stabilize other state programs to prevent future cuts.

But Republicans argue a tax cut is the best way to use the stimulus money without committing to ongoing spending.

"You can always have good projects and good ideas, but at the end of the day, there's no way you can fund all of them. So I think you try to be fair to everyone and that's where the tax cut idea comes in," said Willard State Rep. Shane Schoeller.

Tourism Official Says Nixon Cost Branson Ad Blitz

The Springfield News-Leader reports that Governor Jay Nixon's incremental release of tourism dollars prevented Branson from purchasing ads just before the beginning of the summer season.
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On Tuesday, The Notebook reported on Sen. Jack Goodman's frustration that only about $250,000 of the $1 million dollars promised by the Governor had been released.

A spokesman for the Democratic governor said Tuesday that the money was being released in increments because the Division of Tourism didn't need it all at once.

But Chad Livengood reports that interim director of tourism Bob Smith said that's not true because he couldn't purchase the ads without the money on hand.

"That's a real misnomer," Smith said. "We told them I've got to have the money by April 15," he told the commission.

Shorts

Quick Hits From Wednesday:

• Congressman Roy Blunt is quoted in the conservative publication Human Events saying that Republicans accept the climate is changing, but added, "There isn’t any real science to say we are altering the climate path of the earth." He also said Republicans would not offer a substitute to the Democrats cap and trade energy bill.
• Was President Obama confused about Robin Carnahan's status as a U.S. Senate candidate. In remarks released to the media this afternoon after his stop in Arnold, Obama is quoted saying this during introductions: "An outstanding Secretary of State and somebody who I think may turn out to be pretty good in Washington if she just so decides . . . Robin Carnahan." Huh? What's she still deciding? With her announcement in February, I think it's pretty clear she wants to go to Washington. Maybe the briefing book wasn't updated. Or maybe the transcript send out is wrong.
• Sen. Kit Bond agrees with the President -- on the New York City photo-op flyover. During a portion of his remarks on the Senate floor, Bond took the Obama administration to task for "the glamour shot." But spokesman Robert Gibbs didn't spin this one, calling it "as stupid a thing to do as one could dream up."
• Congressman Roy Blunt said he voted against a hate crimes bill Wednesday, calling it "unconstitutional. "This legislation endangers our most basic rights as Americans by threatening criminal investigations based on beliefs instead of actions. Regardless of motive, a crime is a crime," Blunt said. But the bill did pass 249-175, and it has the support of the White House. The legislation will broaden such laws by classifying as "hate crimes" those attacks based on a victim's sexual orientation, gender identity or mental or physical disability. President Bush previously vetoed the bill, arguing state laws were sufficient to address those crimes. President Obama has called it "an important civil rights issue."

Nixon: First Case of Missouri Swine Flu in Platte Co.

"A CONCERN, BUT NOT ALARM"

Governor Jay Nixon said late Wednesday that Missouri's first probable case of swine flu (H1N1) has appeared in Platte County.

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Nixon said it was discovered Wednesday afternoon during lab tests on specimens sent to the state health lab. The Centers for Disease Control will now test the sample over the next two days to make a final confirmation. State officials call the case "a concern," but not a "cause for alarm." They say they are working to determine who might have been exposed before the patient showed symptoms. The patient is being asked to remain at home until 7 days after the symptoms subside.

"Since the first case was reported in the U.S., we have prepared for the possibility that the disease would reach Missouri," Nixon said. "Now that a probable case has been found here we are moving quickly to send anti-viral medications to the community and taking all appropriate steps to treat the problem and prevent its spread. The most important thing we can do is make Missourians aware of the state’s response, of the best practices for avoidance of swine flu and facts about how the disease is treated. We want everyone to know how to keep themselves healthy and that the effects of a positive test will be controlled," Nixon added.

More Tonight . . . on KY3 News @ 10

In Jefferson City Wednesday

TICK, TOCK

13 Days Left in the '09 Legislative Session

GET TWITTER UPDATES BEGINNING MIDDAY HERE

Goodman to Nixon: Show Branson The Money

PROMISES, PROMISES

State Senator Jack Goodman says Governor Jay Nixon has not kept his promise to restore tourism funding.
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More than a month ago, Governor Nixon visited Branson to announce that $1 million dollars that had been cut from tourism would be restored, so the city could promote itself with ads in other states. But Goodman said that to date, Nixon has only restored about a quarter of that money. And he said a majority of it is going to promote this summer's Major League All-Star Game in St. Louis.

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***UPDATE @ 11:03 PM***
But a spokesman for the Governor said the point was always to boost tourism statewide. "The point of restoring the million dollars was to boost tourism statewide, with the Governor's expectation that attracting visitors to Branson and to the All-Star festivities in St. Louis would be the primary focus," said Nixon spokesman Scott Holste.

"The next increment of $250,000 will be released on May 1 with the balance to go out before the end of the fiscal year," Holste explained. "The fiscal year is far from over, so it is not accurate to say the Governor is not doing what he said he would do, which is to restore the million dollars."

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Goodman is now pushing new accountability measures so the public can track these funding promises online, in the future.

"Many people in Branson anticipated that the funding Nixon promised to restore would be restored right after his announcement," Goodman said. "By making the daily department budgets—and any cuts made to them—public and searchable on the Missouri Accountability Portal, the people of Branson could easily track when and how much money was restored, rather than waiting in the dark for something that may never come," he added.

Here's the KY3 News story from Nixon's announcement in Branson.

The Missouri Senate advanced a bill that includes an amendment to the Missouri Accountability Portal. Goodman's amendment requires the Governor to submit a daily report documenting all amounts withheld from the state's operating budget for the fiscal year. It also requires the report to be posted on the portal website and be searchable by amounts withheld from each fund, and by the total amount withheld from the operating budget.

Steelman's Old Pollster Leaves Specter

Another small local hook to the Specter saga . . .

The GOP pollster Sarah Steelman used for her 2008 race for Governor announced he would no longer be working for Sen. Arlen Specter, after the senior Senator from Pennsylvania announced he would be switching parties.

Hotline got a statement from Public Opinion Strategies' Glen Bolger: "Senator Specter has been a record-setting U.S. Senator, and we have been part of his campaign team in 1992, 1998, and 2004, but because of his surprising decision to switch parties today, we will no longer be involved. As Republicans, we are disappointed by Senator Specter's decision."

McCaskill, Bond React To Specter

SPECTER THE DEFECTOR

Sen. Arlen Specter announces he'll become a Democrat, acknowledging his chances of winning the 2010 Pennsylvania Republican primary against Pat Toomey were "bleak."

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REACTION:

SEN. KIT BOND: "He chose what he clearly thinks is the easiest path to re-election this time."

SEN. CLAIRE MCCASKILL: "I don't think this will result in big changes on policy. Senator Specter was a moderate and is still a moderate. It will, however, help us get to substantive debate on important issues. It will also be harder for Republicans to block us from even talking about policy."

More from McCaskill from the Wall Street Journal: "It basically is saying moderation is a very difficult thing in the Republican Party. If you are a moderate, you are an endangered species in the Republican Party."

Chrismer: Steelman Played Gender Card

In an article in CongressDaily on gender's role in the Missouri Senate race, Roy Blunt's spokesman suggested that Sarah Steelman has already played the gender card.

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Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer said Blunt has "an excellent record for both men and women" and suggested Steelman made gender an issue in the race with her comments earlier this year that Blunt was "another white guy in a suit," reports Erin McPike of CongressDaily.

It also includes this nugget: "A Republican in Blunt's camp countered that with Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill already in office, Missouri voters might be better served balancing that with a male."

"Should the general election be woman-against-woman, Steelman cited an edge because her experiences as a mother to three children will help her relate to a large swath of voters trying to meet day-to-day parenting challenges more than Carnahan, who has no children," writes McPike.

The full piece, which is only available by subscription, was sent to The Notebook by another source.

NYT's Bai: McCaskill Tweets Sound Like Cast Away

Sen. Claire McCaskill is "tumbling" back on her blog after a New York Times writer dissed her tweets in a recent column.

The New York Times' Matt Bai cites a few of McCaskill's more personal, less-serious tweets . . . “I get old style crunchy taco, and a chicken burrito supreme & Diet Coke at Taco Bell" . . . "Miss those tostados" . . . before comparing her to Tom Hanks in the movie Cast Away, "jabbering to his battered volleyball so as not to lose touch with his own existence."

FIRING BACK . . .
"Like many in Washington – he misses the point," wrote McCaskill on her Tumblr blog. She listed 4 reasons why she Twitters . . . 1) To drive conversation 2) To stay connected 3) It's unfiltered without an editor 4) It's fun.

Catanese's Quick Twitter Take:
While I respect Bai's journalism, The Notebook is with McCaskill. How can anyone complain when we get more real-time information from our politicians? And if the Tweets are filled with personal anecdotes, all the better. What's wrong with a little levity to lift a smile during our hectic days? I can understand why it's not every pol (or journalist's) game. But this is the new frontier. It will never replace the old staples of a well-written in-depth article or a stellar 60 Minutes piece, but it's another tool. It's influence shouldn't be overemphasized -- but it's becoming harder for those in politics and the media to ignore it.

Bond: "We Do Not Torture"

Sen. Kit Bond disputed an Senate Armed Services Committee report that says interrogations of detainees at Guantanamo Bay were focused on trying to establish a link between Al Qaeda and Iraq.

Bond, the ranking member of the Intelligence Committee, said none of the interrogations he was aware of had anything to do with the sort.

"To my knowledge, none of those had anything in establishing a link. The whole purpose was to gain cooperation to find out who the leaders of Al Qaeda were and about planned attacks on the United States," Bond said appearing on Hardball with Chris Matthews.

Bond later said that the United States was not guilty of torture for using the waterboarding technique on military detainees.

"We do not torture," he said. "The thing that has hurt our country is the statements like the Senate Armed Services Committee report," he went on.

The Armed Services report quotes an army psychiatrist saying "a large part of the time we were focused on trying to establish a link between Al Qaeda and Iraq and we were not being successful in establishing a link between Al Qaeda and Iraq."

Bond promised a "thorough investigation in our committee of how these methods were used and what information they got."

But Bond already began making the case that the techniques were lawful and yielded good intelligence.

"We use that same technique on over 100,000 volunteers for the Marines, the Seals and pilots," Bond said of waterboarding. "They look very carefully at it. It is a very unpleasant tactic. I have offered legislation to ban it. But it did produce, according to what we've heard, information that kept America safe," Bond said.

"We've heard from previous directors of Central Intelligence and the current director of National Intelligence that these tactics provided valuable information and ever our 2006 work in the Intelligence Committee, unanimously approved by all members, Republican and Democrat said this is a good program, we want to know more about it, but this has been very effective," Bond said.

Nixon Preps For Swine Flu

Governor Jay Nixon announced that Missouri officials have stockpiled enough antiviral medications to treat more than 600,000 cases of swine flu.
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The worldwide outbreak over the weekend prompted the Nixon administration to request Missouri's share of federal medical supplies. The feds are in the process of providing additional doses, 3 million surgical masks and 3 million enhanced medical masks.

There are no confirmed cases of swine flu in Missouri yet. The virus is blamed for deaths in Mexico and illnesses in five U.S. states - California, Texas, New York, Ohio and Kansas. 40 cases have been confirmed by the Centers of Disease Control.

Health and Senior Services Secretary Margaret Donnelly is working with medical facilities to increase detection of any cases in the state and working to put together a pandemic preparedness plan in place.

WORST THING I'VE HEARD TODAY:
NBC Science Correspondent Robert Bazell: "There is uncertainty just how bad this is going to be. It really could be awful. It could kill millions of people like the pandemic of 1918 did or it could die out. Right now the health officials just don't know."

Weaver: Steelman Could Become "National Star"

WEAVER CONFIRMS HE'S ADVISING STEELMAN
Says Exploratory Committee Papers Were Finalized Monday

Sen. John McCain's former top aide and current close confidante John Weaver thinks former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman has the potential of becoming a national star.

In an interview with The Notebook Monday, Weaver confirmed he's advising Steelman's exploratory candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2010. He said the final paperwork for her committee was completed Monday.

Weaver isn't being paid by Steelman yet, but he was a full advocate for her cause during our wide-ranging conversation.

"If Robin Carnahan had a casting call for who she'd want her opponent to be, Roy Blunt would win the part hands down," Weaver said. "No one in Washington or Missouri can work through a scenario where he can win. It's just not there," Weaver added.

Team Blunt would obviously disagree. So having heard many of the counter arguments made by advocates for Blunt, I put those questions to Weaver:

1) How can Steelman beat Blunt if she wasn't able to beat Kenny Hulshof a half a year ago? Steelman fared best in Southwest Missouri against Hulshof, but that will be Blunt's strength. How does she make the math work?

Weaver: "It's an entirely different race in a different environment. I mean, here's a guy who helped in pursuing the intellectual and fiscal bankruptcy of the Republican party. The party has a few questions to ask itself: Are they going to put a real conservative up in the general election, and frankly, are we going to put someone who can win?"

2) But Steelman's campaign will be in part based on out of control spending and earmarks. Those are arguments she used against Hulshof. And she still lost. Some people just like earmarks, because it's money coming to their town.

Weaver: "They were not the issues that the are now. No offense to [Hulshof] but we saw what happened to him in the general election. The time for K Street Republicans, big government Republicans is gone in our party. She's clearly the fresh face for a new start for our party. Roy Blunt's yesterday's news."

3) So let's say she's able to beat Blunt. It's still a long, tough, expensive campaign. She's still battered, and walks into the general bloodied, just like Kenny Hulshof did. A walk in the park for Robin afterall . . .

Weaver: "Sure, it's a tough primary. But I can give you lots of examples of cases in the history of this country where a good candidate comes through and wins. When she defeats Roy, she will immediately command national attention. She's got the profile to become a national star. Roy doesn't fit into that. Sarah Steelman has the ability to draw totally different types of constituencies in the general election. I guarantee the Democrats want to run against Roy Blunt. They don't want to run against Sarah Steelman."

4) Doesn't Sarah Steelman need to become a better speaker if she wants to become a Senator?

Weaver: "I think she's a fine speaker. I think Sarah just has to run Sarah's campaign, not a consultant's campaign. She's a good communicator because her message is strong. The Sarah Steelman I know doesn't need coaching or training. She just doesn't need to be overhandled."

You can bet the barn that one critique you'll hear thrown back at Steelman from Republicans is that just a few years ago, Weaver left the Republican Party to work for Democratic candidates.

Weaver served as political director to McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign. After McCain's tough loss, Weaver reportedly became disillusioned with the GOP. By 2002, he was doing work for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But soon after that, he was back with his close friend McCain. Even after he left McCain's 2008 effort in the middle of a staff shake-up, he still kept in close touch with top McCain aides and the Senator himself.

Week 15: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 15 GRADE: B

Jay Nixon experienced a setback last Monday when the House dismantled the Governor's $100 million dollar fund for business incentives piece-by-piece. But it didn't seem to rattle the Governor, who went about promoting his summer jobs stimulus initiative -- another non-controversial, non-ideological plan that was widely accepted and praised. Ditto for his energy conservation plan. On the national scene, some Democrats are pushing the spectacularly controversial cap-and-trade. Nixon's asking state buildings to be more conscious about shutting the lights and computers off. Instead of blasting lawmakers, Nixon seemed to be using more carrots this week, using private meetings to lobby his Republican counterparts and expressing confidence that there's still the will and the time to push his major initiatives through the session. He even ended up on the House floor himself, praising legislators for their work on his chief economic initiative. "I wanted to make sure they knew I appreciated it," Nixon said to reporters. That was "Gentle, No Sweat" Jay on display. But Nixon knows the value of having political allies all around him. That's where the natural political animal comes out. Appointing the former chair of the Democratic Party to the state development finance board may be the right move. But it's certainly perceived as a political plum, and nothing really different than previous pols have done. The Governor was quick to personally distance himself from another "political play," when one of his appointees on the Veterans Commission attempted to oust the director. No direct fingerprints there, but too close for comfort. Nixon is part pragmatist, part pol. As Chad Livengood notes in a post from Springfield's Jackson Day event, Nixon pleaded for a Democratic Speaker of the House in 2010. Speaker Richard and Nixon have worked relatively well together this session and Richard has aggressively stumped for the Gov's jobs bill. But when it comes down to it, as much as the Nixon (or any Gov.) stresses bipartisanship, he only does that because he has to. It not only sounds nice, but it's political reality for him. A Democratic House in 2010 would change the game. Bipartisanship sounds great, but in the end, a lot of politics still comes down to what jersey you are wearing.

Early Voting, Voter ID: Too Big to Pass?

If you wanted to vote early in Missouri, you'd need to bring a photo I.D.

And that may be the reason why the entire plan dies.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

Nixon: Ameren Wouldn't Budge

Governor Jay Nixon suggested Thursday that Ameren UE's unwillingness to negotiate killed a plan that would have allowed the power company to construct a new nuclear plant.

"Adding . . . 15, 20, 30, 40 percent to businesses and individuals bills in the short run in this economy right now, I don't think is the right thing to do," Nixon said at a media availability in Columbia. "They came in with a position and that position never really shifted," he added later.

The legislative proposal -- that now appears to be dead -- would have allowed the utility to charge customers for some of the costs of the plant before it was fully operational. Nixon said he had hoped for a 2-step process, but said he didn't think Ameren has "ever absorbed that point."

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A spokesman for the Fair Electricity Rate Action Fund (FERAF), a group that fought to kill the bill, said it was unfortunate Ameren took "a my way or the highway approach."

"If and when Ameren is ever willing to enter into honest negotiations which don’t imperil Missouri’s energy consumers, we at FERAF will be happy to discuss their proposal further," said FERAF spokesman Gregg Keller.

Irl Scissors, Executive Director of Missourians for a Balanced Energy Future (MBEF), replied: "There is no question that Missouri lost today."

"We lost a $6 billion investment in our state that would have created the largest construction project in Missouri history. We lost the creation of 3,000 good-paying jobs in a time of record unemployment. We lost millions of dollars that would have gone to local governments for public safety and education. And equally important, we lost the prospect of expanding reliable nuclear power in Missouri to meet our growing future baseload energy needs," said Scissors.

McCaskill: Justice Lawyers Shouldn't Get A Pass

Senator Claire McCaskill said lawyers at the Justice Department involved in approving harsh interrogation practices may be guilty of "malpractice" and should not get a pass in the current controversy over torture techniques.

"I think giving lawyers a pass is a big problem because when you're a lawyer, your job is to show what the law is, not to give somebody the political answer they want," McCaskill said on MSNBC's Morning Joe.

Responded Scarborough: "You can't just blame the lawyers . . . The buck doesn't stop with lawyers, it stops with our elected leaders."

*WATCH FULL EXCHANGE ABOVE*

"I'm sure they'll be some form of investigation in Congress"

In a response to a question from NBC White House correspondent Chuck Todd, McCaskill said she believed Congress would conduct some sort of investigation about the interrogation techniques used under the Bush administration.

Then . . . Pleads to come back on the show to talk about waste in government contracting.

Scarborough yelps: "We love you Senator McCaskill!"

Producer promises she's "booked" for next week to talk gov't waste --- unless --- "something comes up."

Kill Bill

The push to defeat House Joint Resolution 9.

Tonight . . . on KY3 News @ 10

Turn Off The Lights

Governor Jay Nixon is directing state agencies to implement measures that will reduce energy usage at their buildings by 2 percent annually over the next decade.

The Governor estimates $1 million dollars in savings in the first year alone. His office estimates the state spent about $55 million dollars on energy costs at these buildings. Nixon's executive order applies only to buildings overseen by the Office of Administration.

That means the departments of conservation (ironic) and transportation as well as public colleges and universities.

"As one of the largest employers and energy consumers in the state, Missouri must become a leader in conservation," Gov. Nixon said. "We have a responsibility to set the example for state employees, businesses and citizens across the state. This will be good for taxpayers and the environment, and lead the way toward a brighter, cleaner energy future for all of us."

The Division of Facilities Management will work with the Department of Natural Resources to implement the measure. Weatherization measures are also included in the measure, with the replacement of energy-inefficient light fixtures and implementation of "more efficient means of heating and cooling buildings."

Less If & More About When

"I have my own timeframe"

Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman continues to tease and toy about a potential 2010 U.S. Senate candidacy without formally committing to one.

"I know everybody is in a big hurry but I have my own time frame. I’m very serious about it," Steelman told Roll Call.

She also poked at Congressman Roy Blunt for his recent fundraising total:

"He's boasted about himself being a great fundraiser so I just assumed he would be as competitive with some of the other races around the country that are similar to this one," Steelman said. "What I think it is is people saying, ‘Wait a minute, we’re not sure that he’s the right guy for the job,’" she said.

YET . . . Some Republicans are still quietly circulating the case that Steelman "could own the 7th" if she wanted it, referring to the U.S. House seat Blunt will vacate.

Defending Waterboarding & Bucking Blunt

WISDOM CARVES A DIFFERENT PATH

Republican congressional candidate Jeff Wisdom clearly separated himself from Rep. Roy Blunt on the day he launched his campaign. He candidly said he would carve a different path than Blunt in Washington and added that he doesn't think the average 7th District citizen feels like they've been represented the past 12 years.

*WATCH IT ABOVE*

"My intention is not to go there and spend the next 20 to 30 years of my life," Wisdom said, though he stopped short of taking a term limit pledge. "I believe that that limits democracy."

ON BLUNT:
"I believe Roy Blunt went to Washington D.C. and became part of the problem in Washington D.C. I think that he became beholden to a lot of special interests and I don't intend for that to happen . . . I just believe Roy Blunt became part of the establishment, and I don't want to be part of the establishment."



In the second clip, Wisdom backs waterboarding as an "effective tactic to gain information from detainees."

"I believe that we have gathered some very good information that likely prevented terrorist attacks on our soil through waterboarding," Wisdom said.

BUT critics have said there's no evidence waterboarding has ever worked:

"If there was an instance that these interrogations lead directly to the savings of lives and they could prove it, this information would be leaked by now," said former CIA officer Bob Baer on Hardball Wednesday night.

Wisdom served for a year in Iraq as part of the Navy Reserve.

He said he worries about a hasty pull-out in Iraq, but backs President Obama's policy to send more troops to Afghanistan.

*FULL CLIP ABOVE*

Talent Laments Obama Pentagon Procurement Cuts

In a wonky piece for National Review, former Senator Jim Talent urges the Obama administration to defy political pressure and seek a double-digit budget increase for the Department of Defense.

***

Talent argues that because of underfunding under the previous two administrations, much of the military's equipment is "rusted, old, unreliable or worn out."

"How can the administration possibly claim Keynesian justification for throwing money at every government agency except the military? No one could credibly argue that doubling the budget of the Department of Energy creates jobs, but buying ships or planes built by American workers in American industry does not," writes Talent.

"The failures of his predecessors have left him no choice but to seek a double-digit increase in the defense budget and use the money to modernize America’s military inventory. On this issue at least, Barack Obama must for his own sake find a way to act like Ronald Reagan. Otherwise, his foreign policy is finished," he concludes.

Overall Defense Secretary Robert Gates is proposing roughly a 4 percent hike in 2010 defense spending to about $534 billion dollars. Some analysts say Gates is just trying to "slow the rate of growth."

Nixon Energy Announcement Expected Thursday

Governor Jay Nixon is expected to announce "a major energy conservation measure" for Missouri Thursday morning.

***

Nixon is slated to speak at the Missouri Energy Summit at the University of Missouri at 8:30 a.m. He'll speak to early-bird reporters immediately following his remarks.

Nixon's Natural Resources Director Mark Templeton has a background in exploring "green markets for products and services."

During his 2008 campaign, Nixon mostly spoke in general terms about his energy policy, touting wind, solar and renewable fuels. On conservation, he said: "We have to have conservation of the energy we do have, trying to make sure we have more weatherization and more efforts for folks to be more efficient in how they use energy."

For more information on the MU Energy Summit, click HERE.

House Wants to Make Rainy Days Easier to Come By

The Missouri House voted to make it easier for lawmakers to dip into the state's Rainy Day Fund in times of fiscal crisis.

"Instead of being the emergency savings account that was intended, the Rainy Day Fund is more like a payday loan that solves one financial problem by creating another. My legislation will create more flexibility and create an accessible savings account the state can tap in times of need," said Rep. Jamilah Nasheed in a statement.

Right now, if lawmakers were to tap the fund, the constitution requires the state to begin repaying it during the next fiscal year. Nasheed's joint resolution --- which would need voter approval -- would give the state up to 3 years to begin paying back the fund.

The resolution could hit the Senate Thursday.

If it clears the upper chamber, the proposal would go to a statewide vote.

Bond: Obama Flip-Flopping on Terror Techniques

Senator Kit Bond is criticizing contradictory messages out of the Obama administration about whether intelligence officers could be subject to prosecution for using harsh interrogation tactics deemed by some as torture.

Bond said the president has found himself caught between "rhetoric and reality."

"That’s the only explanation for the President’s recent flip-flops on the treatment of our terror fighters," Bond blasted in a statement Wednesday.

***

The President came down against a 9-11 style investigation into interrogation tactics, according to the Washington Post. But Secretary of State Clinton has suggested a commission might be appropriate.

***
"The President can’t go to the CIA with reassurances one day and then the next day, turn around and leave the door open to prosecutions," said Bond. “Our terror fighters need to know whether the President has their back or will stab them in the back.”

Bond said the mixed signals have lead to a "lack of strategy" by the Obama administration on national security issues.

Spfld Reps Get Behind Lobbying Bill Aimed At Courts

A trio of Springfield lawmakers are backing largely symbolic late-session legislation squarely aimed at banning the state court system from lobbying with public money.

This late in the session, House Bill 1188 is unlikely to pass by itself, but Better Courts for Missouri Executive Director James Harris acknowledges its best hope may be getting it "added as an amendment to another bill."

Willard Rep. Shane Schoeller is the sponsor, with Springfield Reps. Eric Burlison and Charlie Denison signing on as co-sponsors.

The bill would prohibit the Supreme Court from using money to pay for lobbyists with taxpayer money. Lobbyists who violate the law would be prohibited from registering as a legislative lobbyist for up to two years.

"It is time that the supreme court stop abusing taxpayer monies and end their practice of utilizing taxpayer funded lobbyists to oppose legislation that would benefit the Missouri’s citizens," said Harris, whose Sunshine requests of the court have been rebuffed. "It is outrageous that the supreme court believes it does not have to comply with open records law, but then finds it appropriate to use taxpayer dollars to lobby against the very taxpayers who foot the bill for these lobbying efforts” added Harris.


The Court has said Harris' request for personal records of judges do not fall under the Sunshine Law's purview. The Supreme Court clerk told The Columbia Missourian: "I don't think Mr. Harris totally understands the law, or the constitution for that matter." Clerk Thomas Simon added: "He pushes an agenda, and he pushes an interpretation of the law."

Let's Make A Deal!

The Governor gladhands in the gallery -- and a key House member says a tax credit cap is being negotiated.

But what say the Senate?

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - Gov. Jay Nixon says negotiators are making progress on an economic development bill and he is optimistic it can pass in the final three weeks of the legislative session.

Nixon visited with key lawmakers Wednesday in the side gallery of the House chamber to encourage their efforts on the legislation.

The proposal to expand Missouri's business incentives has been hung up for months by some senators who want to place new restrictions on state tax credits.

In particular, some senators want to cap the amount of tax credits that can be authorized annually for the redevelopment of historic buildings.

Lead House sponsor Tim Flook, a Republican from Liberty, says lawmakers are discussing a cap on the historic preservation tax credits that could have an exception for smaller projects.

Wisdom Launches 7th District Congressional Bid

NUMERO TRES
College professor and Iraq veteran Jeff Wisdom became the third official candidate to enter the race to replace Roy Blunt in Congress.

*Watch clips from Wisdom's campaign kick-off above*

"I am a conservative, Christian, pro-life, veteran and proud of it," Wisdom said to a room of about 30 supporters in Springfield Tuesday.

But that's not what made his campaign announcement unique.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

Nixon Says Revenue Report Means "More Restraint"

Governor Jay Nixon said the gloomy revenue forecast means that the state will have to show more fiscal restraint heading into 2010.

On Monday, the Governor's budget director said Missouri will be fortunate if revenues don't fall by more than 4 percent this year. Linda Luebbering also said next year's projected 1 percent growth may be too optimistic.

"The economy has certainly not yet rebounded," Gov. Nixon said Tuesday.

Nixon also said he met with key lawmakers earlier this week about how "we've got to be very careful in our expenditures."

On the $2 billion dollars available to Missouri for "budget stabilization": "I want to make sure that we save some of those resources for next fiscal year," Nixon said. "So we don't splurge and spend all that."

ADDS: A Quality Jobs bill is still "clearly doable."

Won't back away from any of his current session initiatives

Hits House for looting his plan for more business incentives

*WATCH IT ALL ABOVE*

Bucking Conventional Wisdom

"I don't want to be part of the establishment"

Jeff Wisdom's candidacy for Congress is the latest example of an increasingly vocal conservative movement that's fed up with the leaders of its own Republican Party -- and mobilizing to do something about it.

DEVELOPING . . .

Tonight on KY3 News @ 10

VIDEO: Nixon Touts Summer Internships for Students

Thousands of Missouri students will be able to take advantage of paid internships this summer, courtesy of the federal government.

Governor Jay Nixon said the state will receive $25 million dollars from the federal stimulus package to help match up students between ages 16 and 24 with high-tech companies that could use the extra help. Springfield's Associated Electric Cooperative is one of the area employer participants. After touring the company Tuesday, the Governor said he hoped the program would help prepare students for "next generation" jobs, as well as begin to pull the state out of its economic rut.

*WATCH HIS COMMENTS & TOUR ABOVE*

"The program will provide much needed short-term employment in a difficult economy. Young people will be able to earn a little extra money this summer to help their families make ends meet," Nixon added.

So far more than a thousand students have applied for 6,000 slots. More than 200 employers have also expressed interest.

"And for employers out there, we're paying, so we're asking for more and more employers to work with us," Nixon urged.

To register for the program, click HERE.

Zweifel Opens It Up

State Treasurer Clint Zweifel has launched a new website that's meant to make it easier to track down government records.

The site includes new documents that haven't ever before been published online.

"The Open Government site provides several documents, such as the MOST 529 Annual Report, which have not previously been available online, and we are continuing to identify similar documents to post online for easier access by the public," Zweifel said.

Zweifel's site now features records of investment results, state fund balances, the Missouri Linked Deposits Review Committee, the Missouri Investment Trust and the Missouri Higher Education Savings Program Board, which oversees the MOST 529 College Savings Plan.

For Politico: Missouri GOP Concerned About Blunt

The following article was freelanced for the Washington-D.C. based publication Politico:

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. — Rep. Roy Blunt’s disappointing first-quarter fundraising performance reflects growing concern within the party that the veteran Missouri Republican may not be the ideal Senate nominee to take on likely Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan, according to Missouri Republicans.

Read the entire piece at Politico.com HERE.

Roy & Robin: Sifting Through The Early Attacks

WHO'S BLOWING MORE SMOKE?

Blunt on Energy; Carnahan on . . . Anything

A new television ad by the League of Conservation Voters includes a group of over-the-top claims against Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt.

The ad is meant to attack Blunt's record on "clean energy," but the statements made in the 30-second spot are oversimplified and pretty "clean" of specifics. "Roy Blunt says no to clean energy," booms the voiceover. "No to millions of new jobs," it continues. It goes on to claim he also "voted to hold America back."

All the statements are obviously general enough to scare -- but don't offer any help to voters seeking specifics.

For those, you can turn to Congressman Blunt's opinion piece published in the Kansas City Star Monday that contended President Obama's cap and trade plan will cost taxpayers $3,000 more every year. That claim is also untrue, according to Politifact.com, a group that spends its time tracking the authenticity of statements by politicians.

"The Republicans contend Obama's cap-and-trade policy would impose a $3,128 tax per family. But it's not a tax and it wouldn't cost that much," Politifact writes. Critics call that number overblown, and some estimate the plan would cost around $79 more each year per family. Republicans cite a 2007 MIT study that attempted to figure out the cost. But the author of that study has said the $3,000 number has been greatly exaggerated. Yet it continues to be repeated.

Still, even some Democrats acknowledge that the costs of cap-and-trade would be passed on to consumers via higher gasoline and electric bills. In Wisconsin, the State Journal praised its two Senators for opposing an effort to ram cap-and-trade through without 60 votes.

"If designed well, cap-and-trade legislation could cap carbon emissions and require those companies that exceed the cap to buy or trade credits. It would use market-based principles rather than inflexible regulations," wrote the Journal in a recent editorial.

"But if designed poorly, Wisconsin and other states that rely heavily on coal for energy to power homes, businesses and manufacturing plants could be socked with fat bills that further stall the economy," the paper added.

Blunt's spokesman stood by the $3,000 charge in a statement responding to the television ad Monday afternoon. "This false attack ad for Robin Carnahan is an attempt by a liberal group to get a vote for adding $3,000 a year to family utility bills with a 'cap and trade' energy tax, while also enriching tax-subsidy recipients like Tom Carnahan's company," said spokesman Rich Chrismer.

As noted above, that $3,000 figure is widely under fire.

But Chrismer has a stronger point when he questions Carnahan's position on cap and trade -- or a host of other current hot issues, for that matter.

"Roy and Robin Carnahan have very different positions on energy, and Robin Carnahan's refusal to answer the public's questions is the only thing preventing a series of joint media appearances this year for questions on vital national security issues such as energy," Chrismer said.

Last week, The Star reported that Carnahan dodged questions about legislation that could allow unionization without a secret ballot. "I don't know what the current form of that is," Carnahan said, before continuing to duck a series of questions, according to The Star's reporting.

Blunt has also been critical of Carnahan for her apparent support of the federal stimulus package. But in an interview with The Notebook in Hannibal, Carnahan never specifically said she would have voted for the package.

When asked for a clarification from the Carnahan campaign last week, spokesman Tony Wyche reaffirmed Carnahan's non-position. "She has said that with people hurting as much as they are that doing nothing, as some seem to be arguing was not an option. She also said that she was not there to review each and every item in the bill; that there were many items that deserved to be removed or at least should have received more scrutiny. She's also said that we need to make absolutely sure that anything we do in the name of economic stimulus is actually stimulative and creates jobs," Wyche said.

Not even Senators who have been in Congress for decades are able to read each and every item in a bill; and if Carnahan was there, it would be unlikely she would be able to either. She could make a statement, pledging to do just that. Then again, that would be taking a position.

The argument is that it's too early for specifics, that the public is drained. But the Secretary of State won't be able to get away with these open-ended answers as the calendar creeps closer to 2010.

But the early back-and-forth between Blunt and Carnahan might leave you wondering: What's worse: Exaggerating a claim to make a point or concealing a position to avoid one?

VIDEO: Ralph Manley Resigns

"I CANNOT GO ON"

In a shock to city officials and longtime residents, 10-year Springfield City Councilman Ralph Manley abruptly resigned his seat Monday night, after being unable to secure enough votes to be elected Mayor Pro Tem.

*WATCH THE RAW VIDEO OF MANLEY'S RESIGNATION ABOVE*

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

BELOW: MY INTERVIEW WITH MANLEY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING HIS RESIGNATION

"AN INSULT . . . TO MY INTEGRITY"

Ralph Manley said his decision to resign from City Council was made up before Monday night, but that the Mayor Pro Tem vote "advanced" his resignation.

"I think it was an insult to my honesty and integrity. To have a couple of people with bankruptcy running against me, was an insult to my intelligence, and I cannot put up with that part," Manley told KY3 News, in a direct slam at his former council colleagues.

During the vote to become Mayor Pro Tem, here's how the battle lines were drawn:

SUPPORTING DAN CHILES -- Mayor O'Neal, Nick Ibarra, Scott Bailes & Dan Chiles (4 votes)

SUPPORTING DOUG BURLISON -- Cindy Rushefsky, Bob Stephens & Doug Burlison (3 votes)

SUPPORTING RALPH MANLEY -- John Rush & Ralph Manley (2 votes)

5 votes are needed to become Mayor Pro Tem. After three rounds of voting, the issue was tabled, because no candidate could reach the 5 vote threshold. The council decided to put the issue off until Tuesday's council lunch.

When asked if he deserved to be Pro Tem, or was entitled to the position, Manley replied, "You can put it that way."

MAYOR O'NEAL REACTS: "I didn't know it was going to happen. I was kind of shocked and disappointed, because I think the world of Ralph, but obviously he's upset about something."

BREAKING: Ralph Manley Resigns From City Council

Springfield City Councilman Ralph Manley abruptly resigned his seat Monday night after failing to win enough votes to become Mayor Pro Tem.

Manley presented a letter to reporters during the council meeting Monday night. But the surprising move has left city officials shocked.

"I have failed to get a majority of support from this current council, so it is with regrets that after 10 years of dedicated service to Springfield city council I hereby submit my resignation," Manley's letter reads.

The handwritten letter is dated April 20, 2009.

Manley goes on to say he will move out of city limits in May.

According to City Attorney Dan Wichmer, Mayor Jim O'Neal gets to appoint Manley's replacement until the next city election.

The city council meeting continues at this hour and Manley has yet to say anything public to his colleagues.

DEVELOPING...
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

Bond Hearts Teddy; Corker Likes Claire

The Hill lists which Democrats Republican Senators find to be the "most bipartisan."

Sen. Kit Bond chose Sens. Barbara Mikulski and Sen. Murray as well as two liberals from the Northeast. "I've worked very well with Ted Kennedy and Chris Dodd on children's issues. I worked very well with many members last year with FISA, to keep it on track. We don't have to agree on a lot of things or even if we disagree on most things, we can work together on the issues where we agree," Bond told the D.C.-based publication.

***

Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee chose Sen. Claire McCaskill as one of his pals across the aisle. "I've co-sponsored a number of things with Claire McCaskill, and I'm working with Jim Webb on some things. Claire and I have some mutual interests in legislation that have worked well for us," Corker said.

Embattled Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning was the only Republican who didn't list a single Dem.

7th District Poll: Unannounced Nodler Leads

THE NODLER FACTOR

Name I.D. Favors Appropriations Chair in 7th District Race

The early frontrunner in the race to replace Congressman Roy Blunt has not decided if he's running yet.

Joplin State Sen. Gary Nodler has the edge over his Republican rivals in the scrambled 7th Congressional District race, according to a new poll released to The Notebook Monday.

A March poll taken by Wilson Research Strategies shows Nodler leading the ballot with 35 percent of the vote. The Senate Appropriations chair holds a 10 point advantage over two rivals who have already officially announced their candidacies, State Sen. Jack Goodman and auctioneer Billy Long.

7th District Poll

NODLER 35%

GOODMAN 25%

LONG 25%

PUTNAM 7%

DONALDSON 5%

ELMER 2%

The telephone poll of 300 likely GOP primary voters was taken between March 9th and 10th. Kansas City-based political consulting group Axiom Strategies was the client for the poll, but did not pay for it.

"Although the race is a long way off and voters have not yet engaged in a serious way, Senator Gary Nodler is currently in the best position among current candidates to win the Republican nomination for Missouri's 7th Congressional district," reads a memo written by Wilson Research.

"Senator Nodler, along with Billy Long, currently has the best name ID of any of the potential Republican candidates in the race," it goes on. "Senator Nodler is the only candidate who appeals to both social and fiscal conservatives."

In February, Nodler was noncommittal on the race. "Filing is 13 months away, so there's no rush to make a decision. My decision won't be based on any other candidate's timeline to make their own decision," Nodler said.

This poll finds that 40 percent of voters rate economic issues as their top concern. Among those voters, Nodler almost holds a 2-to-1 advantage over the next closest candidate.

49 percent of respondents said they have "heard of" Nodler. But Long's name identification is just as strong, with a 48% "heard of" rating.

Wilson's conclusion: "Gary Nodler is in a position to take a healthy portion of the very conservative vote while dominating the soft conservatives and moderates. Jack Goodman and John Putnam are limited to fight over the very conservative vote to win, allowing Gary Nodler to build a winning coalition across the entire primary electorate."

The New SarahSteelman.com

As The Notebook first mentioned last week, Sarah Steelman is launching a new website that went live today.

The slick new web-digs features a piece from Steelman entitled, "I am betting on the American people," a multimedia section with a video of her appearance on Glenn Beck, and a blogging forum that includes an entry from her 20-year-old son who's attending the University of Chicago.

One tab is called "Three Words," noting "3 Words That Changed The World: Freedom, Truth & Justice."

The Steelman logo has also gone to a lighter blue tint.

No official campaign plans are included on the site, but this certainly doesn't look like a site designed to run for State Auditor.

The Springfield-based design firm Team Media developed the new look.

"We were delighted to work with such a passionate advocate of the people as Steelman and are enthusiastic about the website's ability to promote a call to move our country back to the basics," said George J Lamelza III, CEO of Team Media LLC in a statement sent to The Notebook.

Add Another Candidate to the 7th

Iraq war veteran and Springfield economics professor Jeff Wisdom is expected to announce his candidacy to seek the Republican nomination for Roy Blunt's Congressional seat Tuesday.
***
In an e-mail to reporters Sunday evening, Wisdom announced four 7th District campaign kick-off rallies on Tuesday, beginning in Point Lookout and ending in Bolivar.

The release describes the 39-year-old Wisdom as a 10-year Ozarks resident who served in Iraq and now works as an economics professor at Ozarks Technical Community College. His undergraduate degrees are in economics and political science. His graduate degrees are in business/economics and education. The release also says Wisdom attends Wesley United Methodist Church in Springfield.

HERE is an article that the University of Arkansas wrote about Wisdom leaving to serve in Iraq.

His campaign kick-off schedule Tuesday is as follows:

• 1 p.m. Keeter Center, College of the Ozarks, Point Lookout, Mo.
• 2:30 p.m. Shoney's Restaurant, Ozark, Mo.
• 4 p.m. The Library Center, Springfield, Mo.
• 7 p.m. Simon B's Bolivar, Mo.

Future rallies will be held in Barry, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton and Stone counties, according to the release.

Wisdom will become the third official Republican candidate to enter the race. Auctioneer Billy Long and State Sen. Jack Goodman have already announced their candidacies. Convoy of Hope President Hal Donaldson has launched an exploratory committee. Nixa alderman Kevin Elmer is likely to jump into the race, possibly as early as next month.

Week 14: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 14 GRADE: B

In his plainest language yet, Governor Jay Nixon made the case last week that the Senate's unwillingness to approve his economic development bill is costing Missourians jobs. One company has already announced it's heading to Michigan for better incentives. There's speculation more could follow. The Republican House Speaker seems just as frustrated with the Senate stalemate. State unemployment is steadily creeping towards an alarming 9 percent. Yet at Saturday's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in St. Louis, Nixon notably refrained from skewering the Senate, instead serving up red-meat about the GOP-lead House, according to Jo Mannies' reporting in the Saint Louis Beacon. (Part of the issue is that a few Democratic Senators are part of the Quality Jobs filibuster effort.) Nixon has juggled carrots and sticks throughout his first 90 days in dealing with a legislature of the opposite party. His move to tap former foe David Steelman to help reform the state retirement system is another example of Nixon's bipartisan credibility. But with weeks winding down in the session, the Governor realizes that some of his initiatives won't survive. He'll have to pick his battles strategically. Lawmakers of both parties want more information on his plan to use stimulus money for business incentives. And Republican Senators may demand some type of cap on historic tax credits in order to pass the Governor's biggest economic development tool. Nixon continues to say he's open to compromise. It's probably fair to assume the administration has been trying to cut a deal behind the scenes. What we don't know yet is how much the Governor is willing to concede to an upper chamber that has mostly ignored his suggestions/threats thus far. "We need to get back to apples," Nixon said this week, suggesting that the Senate is ignoring the fundamentals of his plan to debate "oranges." If his chief priority is still unresolved in a few weeks, Nixon may be left to squeezing lemons.

Steelman Still Has $770,000 In Debt

While she may be ramping up for a potential U.S. Senate campaign, Sarah Steelman still has significant debt left over from her unsuccessful run for Governor.

But a Steelman adviser says that's irrelevant.

***
As first noted by RedState.com, Steelman's first quarter campaign finance report with the Missouri Ethics Commission shows that eight months after her primary loss, the former state treasurer still has a $770,000 debt.

The report also shows that Steelman reported $113,225 during the first three months of the year, including a $57,775 contribution from the "Power to the People Committee."

Steelman also paid out more than $100,000 to political consultants, including $41,691 to Jeff Roe's Axiom Strategies, almost $23,000 to a Washington-area pollster and $37,230 to a fundraiser.

RedState writes: "That is one whopping big hole to start with if/when she decides whether or not to run."

UPDATED . . . BUT An adviser notes that Steelman put $770,000 of her own money into the race, so the campaign doesn't have to pay her back.

McCaskill on Fox News Sunday

Sen. Claire McCaskill is a guest on Fox News Sunday this week to talk about President Obama's national security policy and his decision to release top secret memos that outlined CIA interrogation techniques that were used during the Bush administration.

McCaskill will appear opposite South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham. The two Senators are also expected to be asked about how to fight piracy on the seas and violence on the border.

Group Pushes For Government Healthcare

Concerned about rising costs and a growing number of uninsured, advocates pushed for passage of a government-run healthcare plan Thursday night that would guarantee coverage.
***

The growing fear expressed at the Health Care For America Now-sponsored event is that if you don't have coverage through your employer, you'll be left without an affordable option.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

***

Congressman Roy Blunt was invited to attend, but a spokesperson said he had already made other previously scheduled commitments.

But he may have not wanted to venture into hostile territory. Most attendees were Democratic Party regulars. Organizers passed out fliers that criticized Blunt's voting record on healthcare. And they left an empty chair in the front of the room designed to symbolize his absence.

Blunt has warned that a government plan could stifle competition.

Watch a video of the Congressman and take his healthcare poll HERE.

***UPDATED . . . From Congressman Blunt's office post-newscast: "Mr. Blunt has held many meetings in the district to discuss healthcare. He had previous official commitments for tonight going back to February. Our office just received an invitation for this forum two days ago," said spokesman Nick Simpson.

Connor: Blunt Will Raise The Money

"IT'S TOO EARLY TO PANIC"

A top Missouri political scientist says accounts of Roy Blunt's underwhelming fundraising quarter for his U.S. Senate race are premature and overblown.

Missouri State University political science professor George Connor told The Notebook Thursday he isn't quite sure why Blunt had such a poor showing -- but is confident of a comeback.

Money quote: "I have absolutely no doubt that Roy Blunt can fundraise circles around Robin Carnahan," Connor said. "He's too well connected."

Adds that he isn't sure Blunt will be able to ultimately win the race.

"I think he's confident in his ability and focused on the end prize," Connor said. "I have no doubt he'll have the money. Winning is another thing."

ALSO: Connor thinks Sarah Steelman would be a formidable challenge for Carnahan, but predicts Blunt will ultimately be the Republican nominee.

Asked his opinion if Blunt turns in lagging fundraising after Quarter 2, Connor responds: "Then I'll really begin to wonder why."

Bond Unhappy About Obama's Release of Terror Memos

Sen. Kit Bond criticized President Obama for releasing censored versions of legal memos detail how the CIA questioned terrorism suspects during the Bush administration.

Bloomberg reports: The four memos show that Justice Department lawyers authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to use such techniques as sleep deprivation, slapping, nudity and waterboarding that simulates drowning.

"It doesn’t take an intelligence analyst to figure out that broadcasting to al-Qaeda exactly what techniques may be used in an interrogation is a really bad idea," Bond said in a statement.

Bond also said he believes this release will "make us less safe and "heighten anger" in parts of the world "where we're trying to make friends."

***

Bond will appear at a ribbon-cutting event in Marshfield Friday at 4 p.m. for the opening of a new health clinic.

HealthCare Forum Thursday Night

Health Care for America Now (HCAN) is holding a town hall meeting in Springfield Thursday night to stress why healthcare reform should be an urgent priority for Congress when it returns from spring recess.

The Springfield event at the Teamsters Hall on 1850 East Division begins at 6:30 p.m.

It's one of 90 events taking place in 43 states nationwide.

***

GET TWITTER UPDATES HERE

The group invited Congressman Roy Blunt, but he is not scheduled to attend.

Scheduled speakers include Dr. Janie Vestal, Dewayne Long of the National Alliance on Mental Illness, Mental Health Provider Amy Chenoweth, Reverend Emily Bowen of Brentwood Christian Church and advocate Richard Green.

"I Think It Was Big of The Governor"

David Steelman acknowledged he was surprised that Governor Jay Nixon tapped him to sit on the board that governs the state retirement system and said he would never turn down an opportunity to serve because of past politics.

***

"Oh yeah, I was surprised," Steelman said in an interview with The Notebook about his appointment to the MOSERS (Missouri State Employees Retirement System) board. "I think it's an important issue and position, and I have a very strong view, that there's a time for politics and a time for governing."

When asked about what politicos should make of old rivals like Nixon and Steelman teaming up, the former Republican nominee for Attorney General laughed it off. "That was twenty years ago," Steelman said of his highly contentious contest with Nixon in 1992. "Sure, it got a little personal. But I think it was very big of the Governor to do this. I figure Governor Nixon might get some heat from the Democrats on this too. But that's what this country's got to get past. You have elections, you have the fight, and then they are done. You govern. And I don't think anybody should turn down an opportunity to serve because of politics," Steelman said.

Steelman said he will head to Jefferson City in May for a fact-finding meeting about MOSERS with Travis Morrison, a West Plains businessman also appointed to the board by Nixon. Asked about how long he'll serve on the board, Steelman replied, "I wouldn't expect to be there long. The goal is to resolve these compensation and transparency issues." Steelman outlined one question he wants answered early on: "I don't understand why MOSERS isn't part of the Missouri transparency portal. There may be a good reason for it, but I don't understand why -- and I'm gonna ask about it."

Steelman heads back to work in the public arena just when speculation is swirling about if/when his wife will leap into the 2010 U.S. Senate race.

When asked about whether this appointment by a Democratic Governor would just fuel questions about The Steelman family's commitment to the Republican Party and conservative issues, Steelman replied: "One, I don't think that people who really know us will feel that way . . . Two, those people are going to find a reason to complain no matter what."

WashPost's Cillizza: Blunt's Fundraising "A Zero"

"LOOKS LIKE ROY COULD USE A BAILOUT"

The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza lists Roy Blunt as his top "fundraising zero" a day after the first quarter fundraising reports were released.

"For a former member of the House Republican leadership who is allegedly the pick of the Missouri party establishment for the state's open seat race, Blunt's $542,000 did not impress -- especially when compared to the $1 million plus Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) collected in the same time period. If there was any doubt whether former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman would run for the GOP nod, there shouldn't be now," writes Cillizza.

Several Republicans who spoke to The Notebook following the release of Blunt reports claimed to be astonished at the number put up by the Congressman.

"It's a five-alarm fire," said a neutral GOP staffer.

"Looks like Roy could use a bailout," sniped another longtime Republican observer.

A Republican close to the Blunt campaign tells The Notebook that Blunt raised an additional $80,000 in St. Louis Wednesday.

Spokesperson Rich Chrismer added this: "For six weeks of fundraising we are right on target and particularly pleased about how things came together in the last two weeks of the quarter during which we raised well-over two-thirds of our total contributions, and how things have come together now."

VIDEO: Full Coverage of Springfield's Tea Party

IMAGES FROM THE TEA PARTY
In 60 Seconds
Springfield, Mo.
4/15/09

More Video of my Q & A with Attendees . . . Courtesy of the hardest working photographer in all of television, Taka Yokoyama.

Plus: Raw Opinions on Roy Blunt, Kit Bond, Claire McCaskill and Sarah Steelman
(Click on the final TWO clips)

*WATCH IT ALL BELOW*
THIS IS CONSERVATIVE AMERICA

In the first clip, Mark Brown voices his opinion about why President Obama should be impeached for his economic policies. "He's not doing what he promised. He's a liar," said Brown. Brown dismissed a question about Bush-era spending, saying it's "nothing like it is now."

Angela Galiana attended the rally holding a picture of her three children and said she was worried the President would saddle them with overwhelming debt. She said the main reason she attended was tax policy. But even though Galiana would benefit from Obama's tax cut this year, she said his long-term policies impacting businesses would override any gain this year. "He's taking higher class citizens who are making over $250,000 . . . It's not fair," she said.

Janice Parker said she stood on Chestnut Expressway to show her displeasure with political profiling in the Missouri Information Analysis Center (MIAC) report. "All I know is, they were trying to profile, and I didn't care for it," Parker explained.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 6 COVERAGE HERE
***
COUNTERPOINT:
Drury University Professor of Economics Steve Mullins offered a counterpoint to the protests, noting that the current debt level as a percentage of the economy is lower now than it was during President Reagan's administration. "These people weren't protesting then. These people haven't been protesting for the past eight years, where we've spent more than $500 billion dollars a year more on wars, tax cuts and a Medicare prescription drug benefit."

Mullins said that while he believes some of the Tea Day party attendees have genuine concerns, many were there for purely partisan reasons. "Why just under the current administration does borrowing and budget deficits scare you so much," Mullins asked. "When you put these numbers in perspective, they're not as scary as some of the critics could make them out to be."
***

"We're Going on A Spending Frenzy"

Karen Richmond was one of the most articulate Tea Partiers we met -- and she's a conservative who feels abandoned by GOP leaders.

So I asked her what she thought about a variety of Missouri pols -- and their fiscal conservative credentials.

On Roy Blunt: "He's been there too long . . . I really liked Jim Talent."

Richmond just offered a hearty belly-laugh when we asked if one particular Missouri Republican was a true conservative.

To see who she laughed off, CLICK ABOVE.

"They're Not Listening To The People"

DON'T WANT PORK
"I'm against Republican representatives not listening to us."

Sandy Thompson is self-described independent who feels sold out.

"I think we need to clean out the Congress and we need to clean out the Senate," Thompson said.

*WATCH HER RATE MISSOURI POLS ABOVE*

Goodman Raises $75,647, Trails Long By $160K

SOLID QUARTER STILL LEAVES HIM TRAILING
Branson Mayor, Former Greene County Sheriff Listed As Contributors

Without any fanfare, Sen. Jack Goodman quietly reported raising $75,647 during the first three months of the year for his 7th District Congressional run, posting a number that's respectable but short of rival Billy Long's fundraising haul.

Goodman and Long are the only officially announced candidates running to replace Congressman Roy Blunt. Goodman's numbers are considered solid for a Senator who is currently spending most of his time in session in Jefferson City.

But tapping his business connections, Long almost outraised Goodman by a 2-to-1 margin. Add in the auctioneer's $100,000 personal contribution, and Long has a significant cash on hand advantage that can't be easily ignored.

The good news for Goodman is that he was thrifty, spending just $785 dollars, mostly on online media.

That leaves Goodman with $74,862 dollars on hand compared to Long's $239,572, amounting to a $164,710 advantage for Long.

Most of Goodman's contributions came from within his Senate district. Jerry Hall of Jack Henry & Associates and his wife Pat, both maxed out $4800 contributions. Branson Mayor Raeanne Presley donated $300 and former Greene County Sheriff Jack Merritt gave Goodman $100. Goodman received five contributions from Springfield, most of them coming from colleagues at the law firm Lathrop & Gage.

The Tea Party

TEMPEST IN A TEA POT?

Why there were there, what they're protesting and who they see as true conservative leaders in Missouri that can steer the government back to "fiscal sanity."

PLUS: Reality Check . . . A Drury University professor of Economics weighs in on President Obama's economic policies and notes the level of debt as a percentage of the economy was actually higher in the 1980s under President Reagan.

ALL Tonight . . . On The BIG Show

. . . KY3 NEWS @ 10

Hundreds Attend Springfield Tea Party

Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

Blunt Calls Homeland Security Report "Politically Motivated"

SPRINGFIELD'S TAX DAY TEA PARTY

LIVE COVERAGE on KY3 NEWS @ 5 & 6

***
Though he isn't personally speaking to any Tea Party rallies, Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt is issuing his support for the movement and criticizing a Homeland Security report that warns about a rise in "rightwing extremist activity."

ROY BLUNT'S STATEMENT:

"I support the Tea Party movement and share its concerns for America and bad policies that endanger the present and the future. Missourians have a right to be angry. They are tired of being treated like an open ATM by President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Senator Harry Reid. Like the Missourians participating in these Tea Parties, I strongly opposed the so-called ‘stimulus.’ The liberal Democrats rammed through nearly $1 trillion in new spending in a bill that nobody even read. My opponent, Robin Carnahan, told The Associated Press she supports the Obama spending spree. The massive spending plan Robin Carnahan supported will slow recovery, slow the creation of jobs and saddle our children and grandchildren with a mountain of debt," said Congressman Roy Blunt.

BLUNT CALLS REPORT "POLITICALLY MOTIVATED"

"This report by President Obama's Department of Homeland Security is absolutely outrageous. It is wrong for the Department of Homeland Security to be playing politics, much less monitoring Americans who are exercising their First Amendment rights at tea parties across the nation. The Obama Administration should have learned a lesson from Missouri when Jay Nixon’s Administration was criticized for issuing a similar report targeting conservative candidates and conservative causes," said Congressman Roy Blunt in a statement.

The Homeland Security Secretary is standing by the report today, according to The Washington Times.

Reports: Big crowds lined up for Midday Branson Tea Party

Paging Sarah Steelman

Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman will launch a new, revamped website within the next two days.
***
A Steelman adviser offered no further details on what would appear on the site other than to say the address will continue to be www.SarahSteelman.com.

Steelman is also scheduled to speak at the Tax Day Tea Party in Camdenton tonight at 5:30 p.m.

DEVELOPING . . .

Doubled Up

BLUNT RAISES $542,034
Democrat Robin Carnahan raised twice as much money as Roy Blunt during the first three months of Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate campaign.
***
The Blunt campaign announced raising $542,034 during the six weeks since their candidate launched his campaign in February. Spokesman Rich Chrismer said Blunt would report $673,612 cash on hand.

"We are pleased to have raised $542,034 in only six weeks, or half the calendar quarter, while launching a full statewide campaign of travel and one-on-one communication. In sharp contrast, Carnahan's office is on auto-pilot and Carnahan herself is essentially invisible to the voters and inaccessible to the news media," Chrismer said in a statement.

THE TOTALS:
RAISED:
CARNAHAN: $1,048,023
BLUNT: $542,034

ON-HAND TO SPEND:
CARNAHAN: $927,785
BLUNT: $673,612

My Take: The best thing about Roy Blunt's fundraising quarter is that, while doubling him up, Carnahan didn't completely blow it out of the water.

Carnahan Raises $1 Million

$1,048,000

FiredUp Missouri has the first crack at Robin Carnahan's 1st Quarter fundraising numbers -- and says the Secretary of State has raised $1,048,000 during the first three months of the year for her 2010 U.S. Senate bid.

"In less than 60 days, we raised over one million dollars! Actually, we raised $1,048,000 (to be exact) from more than 1,400 contributions," reads the message, seemingly from Carnahan, posted on FiredUp.

CARNAHAN CAMP CONFIRMS

In an e-mail to The Notebook, the Carnahan camp confirms the $1,048,023 number.

Spokesman Tony Wyche said Carnahan will report spending $120,238 during the first three months. She has $927,785 on hand.

No word yet on Congressman Roy Blunt's 1st Quarter haul.

DEVELOPING . . .

Dixon Raises $5,407 for 2010 State Senate Bid

The 1st QUARTER

Springfield Rep. Bob Dixon raised $5,407 dollars over the past three months for his 2010 bid to win the Queen City's State Senate seat.

Dixon, who is so far the only announced candidate for Sen. Norma Champion's District #30 seat, took in $5,050 in individual contributions from January through March. He also received a $357 "in-kind" donation from Cady Online Media in Springfield. Campaign finance reports for state and federal office are due Wednesday.

Dixon is reporting $17,369 dollars on hand to spend.

Almost half of Dixon's contributions this quarter came from a single donor: Linda Jared, of Rogersville, who gave him $2,500.

Dixon also received $1,000 from Enterprise Park Lanes, $500 from Tom Fowler, $500 from Green County Auditor Cindy Stein, $500 from Penmac Personnel Services and $300 from a committee called, "Citizens for New Health Care Concepts."

District #138 State Rep. Sara Lampe, who is viewed as a potential opponent to Dixon but has not yet made an announcement about her intentions, did not report raising a single dollar during the first quarter. In her April disclosure form, Lampe reported receiving a $215 "in-kind" contribution from the Missouri AFL-CIO for registration.

Lampe's report is mostly full of expenditures for her 2008 re-election campaign to the House. She has $6,623 on hand to spend.

Wednesday Whirlwind

TEA TIME!
Several Ozarks towns will hold "Tax Day Tea Parties" to protest the stimulus package, bailouts other federal spending and President Obama's tax policies.

Here's the list:
CASSVILLE: 12:00 p.m. @ East Lawn of the Courthouse
JOPLIN: 12-1 p.m. 303 E. Third Street
BRANSON: 12-2:30 p.m. @ Branson Landing, Texas Land & Cattle
SPRINGFIELD: 4-7 p.m. @ Chestnut Expressway & Main Street, Main Post Office
CAMDENTON: 5:30 p.m. @ Camden County Courthouse

What To Watch For: The level of organization and turnout for the events, AND if they have a focus -- or if they end up being a hodgepodge of different, anti-Obama conservative interest groups voicing multiple messages.
***
ALSO: MONEYBALL!

Highly-awaited campaign finance reports are due to the Federal Election Commission Wednesday. The reports will become the first true barometer of the 2010 election campaign.

MSU Officials Worried About Conceal & Carry on Campus

A move to allow concealed weapons on college campuses is dividing administrators and their students.

The State House is on its way to clearing a provision to allow college students to carry guns on campus, with a conceal and carry permit.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

MSU STATEMENT on HOUSE VOTE:
"The consensus of experts is that allowing handguns on campus is inconsistent with campus safety," said President Michael Nietzel. "We concur with that assessment. Removing the ban on concealed weapons on campus is not wise, it is not necessary, and will not promote greater safety," Nietzel said

"It can make those campuses safer because there's a possibility that a student can help assist in taking care of the issue before more people are killed or hurt," said student Nathan Starmer, a college Republican who supports the change. Starmer said the ban ignores reality, because anyone who wants a weapon, will carry one.

Nodler Warns of "Significant Inflation"

MAKING LEMONADE

Missouri Senators are debating how to spend money from the president's economic stimulus plan. They propose spending most of the $943 million dollars on public schools, colleges and universities. But the head of the Senate Appropriations Committee worries the federal government's help now will hurt in the future.

"With the Washington printing presses running overtime, it's also virtually certain that we're going to enter into a period of significant inflation in this country . . . and that is -- make no mistake about it -- a tax . . .," said Sen. Gary Nodler.

Nodler's soundbite was played on KY3 News @ 10, in response to President Obama's statement on the economy Tuesday.

NJ: Missouri Senate Seat 4th Most Likely to Switch

McCain Win Shows Carnahan's Obstacle

D.C. Baggage A Problem For Blunt

Amy Walter of National Journal writes it up:

4. Missouri: Given Obama's victories in North Carolina and Indiana, the fact that John McCain won Missouri (albeit narrowly) shows just how tough it will be for Democrats to take the outgoing Christopher (Kit) Bond's seat. Democrats are lining up behind Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, while Republicans may have a nasty primary between Rep. Roy Blunt and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman. The Steelman camp has released a poll showing Carnahan beating Blunt, who will carry the baggage of 13 years in D.C., including a stint in leadership. Carnahan, meanwhile, will be running for the first time as a national Democrat, not just a Missouri Democrat. This will be a very close race.

Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning is listed as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent; Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd is seen as the weakest DEM officeholder

Faith Group Launches Pro-Stimulus Ad Blitz

A left-leaning Catholic organization is launching an ad on Missouri Christian radio to thank Sen. Claire McCaskill for supporting the 2010 budget.

***

The Wall Street Journal reports that Catholics United is spending $40,000 to run the ad, titled "Thank You for a Moral Budget." More than one-thousand spots will run nationwide thanking Democratic Senators in Louisiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Virginia and Missouri.

"Today, people of faith across Missouri give thanks to Senator McCaskill for supporting the economic recovery plan in next year’s budget . . . This leadership is needed today more than ever," reads the ad.

Republicans call Catholics United "a political front group that hides behind Catholicism to advance a left wing agenda."

Dixon Calls For Hearings on MIAC

Springfield State Rep. Bob Dixon is calling on the House to hold hearings on how the Missouri Information Analysis Center forms its security reports.

The call comes after a controversial security document targeting some conservative groups ignited a political firestorm in Jefferson City that lead to elimination of the report and the replacement of the MIAC director.

Dixon said the hearings, the majority which could occur this summer, would help ensure that future reports produced by MIAC are "properly and adequately supervised."

"I think we can all agree safeguards need to be in place so that no one fears or suspects profiling by political affiliation or protected speech," Dixon said in a media availability at Missouri State University Tuesday. "Frankly, what better way to clear the air and combat misinformation than public hearings."

***

DIXON SAID HE WANTS HEARINGS TO ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:

• How did the process work?
• What are the sources that were used?
• How did they arrive at the "perceived threats?"
• What level of threat did this report merit?

*WATCH A CLIP OF DIXON ABOVE*

Due to time constraints in the legislature, Dixon said the ongoing committee could use the summer to study the issue and then make recommendations. "It might be a longer term study . . . because we've got a lot going on right now," Dixon said.

***

Asked to comment on the House's move to permit college students to carry concealed weapons on campus, Dixon told a KY3 photographer he "didn't have time" to answer the question.

Dixon is a 2010 candidate for Springfield's State Senate seat.

Nixon Taps David Steelman To Help Reform MOSERS

BURYING THE HATCHET
Governor Jay Nixon taps former GOP rival David Steelman to help reform the state government's retirement system.

The announcement comes just days after The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Missouri State Employees Retirement System’s investment staff received $300,000 (MOSERS) and operations staff received $160,000 in bonuses for 2008. The assets decreased by $1.8 billion dollars over that same period.

Steelman, the husband of former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, currently practices law in Rolla. Steelman and Nixon ran against each other for Attorney General in 1992 in a remarkably memorable and nasty contest. Nixon defeated Steelman 50% to 46%.

***

In Jefferson City, Nixon appointed Steelman and businessman Travis Morrison to join the 11-member MOSERS board immediately. Nixon said both men are known for their "independence and sound judgement."

NIXON'S STATEMENT:

"The fact that MOSERS employees were awarded bonuses for a year in which the state employee retirement fund lost nearly a quarter of its value is a sure sign that drastic reforms are needed. Today I’m appointing two trustees to the MOSERS board who are committed to seeing that the compensation system is given a full review and that the practice of awarding large bonuses in difficult economic times is given the harsh scrutiny it deserves. I have the utmost confidence that Mr. Steelman and Mr. Morrison will work quickly and diligently to bring common sense reforms to the way MOSERS does business. We’ve got to make changes to that system now," said Gov. Nixon.

Appointments to the MOSERS Board are not subject to Senate confirmation.

DEVELOPING . . .

Elmer Pledges To Term Limit Himself

Nixa alderman Kevin Elmer, who has said he'll likely launch a bid for the 7th Congressional District seat in 2010, is taking a pledge to only serve five terms if elected.

Elmer spoke before College Republicans at Missouri State University Monday night.

Stressing he's still in the exploratory phase of a campaign, Elmer said he would only serve five terms if elected to Congress. He said he would work towards instituting "The Fair Tax," never vote for a pay raise for himself and keep his family in Nixa during the length of his service.

Elmer said he has not yet decided on whether he would work to bring back earmarks to the district.

*WATCH VIDEO ABOVE*

ALSO: Elmer Accuses White House of Socialism

Quotes American Socialist Norman Thomas . . . "He said, the American people will not vote for socialism, he said, but if you call it liberalism, they'll vote for every piece of it. You think about that for a second, I think that's been going on for the last few years. That's what we've got going on with the Obama White House right now."

"Our way of life is in jeopardy," Elmer went on. "Socialism is what we're talking about. And the Democrats will try to sweep it aside as if it's secondary or something . . . like it's not really happening . . ."

Elmer has said he won't make an official decision on a Congressional run until May, at the earliest.

Long Raises $145,055, Has $245,055 On Hand

LONG REEL$ IT IN

POSTS IMPRESSIVE 1st QUARTER

(AND DOES IT WITHOUT CONSULTANTS)

UPDATED: Has $239,572 Cash-on-Hand

Auctioneer Billy Long raised $145,055 in contributions over the last three months and donated $100,000 of his own money to his campaign for Roy Blunt's Congressional seat.

That puts Long's total haul at $245,055 for the first fundraising quarter of the year, which includes any contributions made from January through March.

According to Long, more than 90 percent of his donations came from Southwest Missouri residents. The $100,000 from Long and his wife is being reported as a contribution, not a loan.

Asked how much cash he has on hand to spend, Long replied, "we've spent very little. No consultants, no hired guns, we're sort of all pitching in and winging it." In a later e-mail, Long said he has $239,572 on hand to spend. The first campaign finance reports of the year are due to the Federal Elections Commission this Wednesday.

Sen. Jack Goodman, the only other candidate who's officially announced he's running for the 7th Congressional District, declined to release his fundraising numbers in advance to The Notebook.

"Barbara and I are 100% committed to this effort as we believe southwest Missouri needs conservative business owners in the U.S. Congress and not career politicians," Long said.

"Over half of our representatives have spent over half of their adult lives in one political office or another. Lifetime politicians have led this country down the wrong road, and I hope to change this by offering ideas for the future that are based on conservative principles, sound business practices and common sense," Long added.

Republican political operatives have told The Notebook that any reports of more than $100,000 would be "very impressive."

"100,000 dollars raised -- not loans or committee transfers -- is flat out the number," said one veteran GOP observer. "Anything over $150 thousand is huge."

Many observers will closely be perusing the report of Convoy of Hope President Hal Donaldson, who has announced an exploratory committee to feel out a run.

DEVELOPING . . .

Nodler: Filibuster Being Abused

Sen. Gary Nodler is worried about legislative progress in the upper chamber and said recent use of the filibuster is being abused by a couple of Senators.

"A number of Senators are moving toward the opinion that we can't allow a single Senator to consistently stop all bills," Nodler said in response to a question at a recent event in Springfield.

*WATCH FULL ANSWER ABOVE*

Filibusters have blocked a bill that will allow utilities to charge customers more for a future plant and a bill that would change the amount of state tax credits given to businesses.

Nodler also says term limits give some Senators the impression they have "the inherent right to control the entire Senate." Adds the Senate needs to re-examine its rules, but notes that sometimes it's healthy to slow down action.

Tony Messenger wrote more about Sen. Jason Crowell's role in recent filibusters HERE.

Mo. Unemployment Climbed to 8.7% in March

JEFFERSON CITY (AP) -- Missouri shed nearly 11,000 jobs last month as the state's unemployment rate also climbed.

Job figures released Monday by the state Department of Economic Development show that Missouri's jobless rate in March climbed to 8.7 percent from 8.3 percent in February.

The state lost 2,500 construction jobs and 4,800 manufacturing jobs, along with losses in several other sectors. But 1,900 retail trade jobs were added in March.

Missouri's unemployment rate has climbed in nine of the last 10 months. The March unemployment rate is the state's highest since December 1983.

Duffy: Blunt Stronger Than Steelman

The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy says Congressman Roy Blunt is a stronger Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010 than former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

***

"When you look at the bigger picture, he's the strongest candidate they have right now," Duffy said in an interview. "Obviously, Steelman would disagree. But you watched that campaign, I watched that campaign, and I'd have to beg to differ," Duffy said, referring to Steelman's 2008 unsuccessful candidacy for Governor.

"She was a better know quantity in that race against (Kenny) Hulshof, and she lost. I thought some of her arguments against him were weak," Duffy said.

Steelman is considered a likely primary challenger, this time against Blunt for U.S. Senate. Duffy said Blunt would have a significant financial advantage over Steelman in a match-up -- unless The Club for Growth got actively involved.

"They could sort of change the math for her. When The Club for Growth comes in and gets involved, it becomes a slightly more ideological battle," Duffy said. "But, they're responsible for lots of lost Congressional and Senate seats. Democrats would love for the Club to get involved, because it's always good for them."

Duffy said the Club usually aligns itself with the more fiscally conservative candidate in the primary race that ultimately loses and/or significantly damages the GOP nominee for the general election.

Duffy has been tracking U.S. Senate races for the Washington, D.C.-based The Cook Political Report for twenty years.

Week 13: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 13 GRADE: A -

If we learned one thing from the SurveyUSA polling of Governor Jay Nixon this week, it's this: His power and popularity stems from being a pragmatic, white-toast Midwest moderate. 60% of Missourians approve of the job the Governor is doing, just three months into his young term. But even more eye-popping is that 62% of self-described "independents" and 49% of Republicans are saluting his work thus far. Seems like his own party may be his weakest spot (Just 71% of Dems approve). Sure, there's grumbling on the left. "He proposes a budget that only partially restores the cuts . . . He seems to not care about us," writes a disappointed liberal from Jefferson City. But in pure political terms -- where do they have to go? A challenge from his left in Missouri? Think again. And the Senate seems to be coming along at just the right time for Nixon. Last week, he got approval of his plan to expand college scholarships to more high school students. Appropriations Chair Gary Nodler is doing media pushing the Governor's healthcare expansion after a harsh House rejection. And the Guv even took time to advocate for adorable puppies in St. Louis. We get three times the calls on abused animal stories compared to anything else. It never hurts to have your picture on televisions across the state, seen standing up for dogs.

What's Their Number?

The 1st Quarter
First Fundraising Numbers Due Next Week

The first real barometer of Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race will come this week in the color of green.

Congressman Roy Blunt and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will submit their first quarter campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and immediately lay down the first tangible benchmark in a campaign still in its infancy.

The amount of dollars raised during the first three months of the year will be poured over by political observers from Missouri to Washington, and furiously spun by backers of both candidates.

"There's no 'quote' good number. What I'm looking for is the disparity between them, if one raises substantially more than the other," said Jennifer Duffy, who has studied U.S. Senate races for the Washington-based Cook Political Report for the past twenty years.

The Blunt and Carnahan campaigns declined to release their fundraising tallies early to The Notebook for this article.

Still, the guessing game leading up to next Wednesday's filing is one of the guiltiest pleasures of the insatiable political class. And while there's no foolproof formula, there are several ways to gauge the success of Carnahan and Blunt's first quarter efforts.

Measure their totals against other candidates from "toss-up" states. In Florida, Democratic Congressman Kendrick Meek, who's in a contested primary, announced a $1.5 million dollar quarter. Illinois State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, a Democrat, took in $1.1 million in a mere 28 days. In Colorado, Democrat Michael Bennett is riding a Rocky Mountain High, setting a state record: $1.37 million in 90 days. Not as many Republican candidates have come forward with their totals. But incumbent Kentucky Sen. Jim Bunning didn't mince words. He's called his fundraising quarter "lousy."

Compare their totals to previous Missouri Senate cycles. In his leap from the House to the Senate, Jim Talent raised $1.78 million from July through December 2001. New incumbent Sen. Jean Carnahan took in $2.29 million during the first six months of 2001, after announcing she'd pursue a full term in January. (That's when you only had to report every six months as opposed to every three.) But the cycles are increasingly getting more expensive. Fast-forward to 2005, for Talent's re-election effort, and he raised $1.3 million during the first three months of the off-year.

Look at how many of their donors have maxed out. Some argue the first quarter of any candidate's fundraising is the easiest. Known as the "low-hanging fruit," these are the loyal donors that the candidate has cultivated a relationship with and can count on. But how many have thrown in the entire $4800 maximum donation ($2400 for the primary/$2400 for the general) in one shot? Another factor: How much of the total money can be used for the general, as opposed to the primary? Carnahan's not likely to have a serious primary, but Blunt may.

Examine how much money came from in-state. If it's more than 70 percent, the pol will likely brag about it. Raising dough at home means you can tout actual "voters" as well as dollars. If the majority are contributions under $200 or so (not likely this early), you can even gloat about that all-important "grass-roots" support. And make sure to watch for the 20001 zip code. That's D.C. money. Then there's New York money, which the Blunt folks will be eyeing in Carnahan's report. "While Roy has been visiting one-on-one with voters, Robin Carnahan has been raising money from pro-abortion groups in New York City," said Blunt spokesperson Rich Chrismer. But Duffy doesn't think Planned Parenthood will have a significant impact on Carnahan's first quarter report, "because they haven't yet done mailings, the big push."

Decipher their burn rate. Not only how much they are raising, but how much they've spent this early, whether it be on staffing, travel or consultant fees. That entourage trailing them around in public, and perusing poll data in private, doesn't usually come cheap. The cash on hand number is key.

Then there's the sour economy. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that political giving has suffered amid the economic slump, with contributions from company political action committees falling six percent to begin this year compared with the same period in 2007. "I still think the first quarter in an election, donors are just strained. Nobody's exactly anxious to write a check. Everybody's going to have a down quarter," said Duffy.

Despite officially announcing her candidacy on February 3rd, Carnahan had been pondering a Senate run for months. Think, ducks in a row. Blunt, on the other hand, wasn't likely even thinking about joining the world's greatest deliberative body until Sen. Kit Bond's dramatic announcement of his retirement in early January.

"I haven't seen the numbers," Blunt said in a quick phone conversation Thursday, when asked about his quarter. "We started from a flat start, but I think it went pretty well," he added.

"We are pleased about where we are in the first six weeks covered in this quarter," added spokesperson Chrismer, stressing that this initial period was not a true full quarter.

The Congressman will be able to carry over cash.

According to his last filing with the FEC, Blunt has $336,408 left over from his Congressional campaign. He'll be able to transfer that to his Senate run. Not being a federal officeholder, Carnahan will have to start from scratch.

Carnahan spokesman Tony Wyche declined to comment on his candidate's fundraising performance, only saying that staffers were still tallying their numbers on Friday.

The money raised during February and March is what observers will hone in on. And this is where the parlor game begins.

Based on the performances of other U.S. Senate candidates across the country, previous election cycles and conversations with numerous political professionals and longtime observers over the past week, $1 million dollars raised seems to be a magic number.

"Below $500,000 is bad. Over a million is huge," said one political operative.

One school of thought is that Carnahan's name and family legacy coupled with a new Democratic president's popularity should give her the early financial edge. Another is that Blunt's nationwide connections makes him a semi-incumbent who can tap into rabid anti-Obama sentiment running through the veins of the GOP.

Of course, since Blunt is likely to face the prospect of a primary from former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman, your political preference likely determines the school of thought you fall under.

"Roy should do at least $1.5 million. Under a million is bad," said one political observer skeptical of Blunt's candidacy.

"Anything around $500,000 will be respectable," said a Blunt ally. "No one will have a good quarter because of the economy. Second quarter is when things will heat up," this observer added.

"The only thing that really matters is if Carnahan does markedly better than Blunt," Duffy said.

The expectations have been set.

Drum roll please.

Mo. Poll: 60% Approve of Nixon; 57% of Obama

A clear majority of Missourians approve of the job Governor Jay Nixon and President Barack Obama are doing, according to the most recent SurveyUSA polling.

60% approve of Nixon and 57% approve of Obama according to a March 20-22 poll of 600 voters.

KEY NUMBERS:
GOP: 16% approve of Obama, 49% approve of Nixon
DEMS: 91% approve of Obama, 71% approve of Nixon
INDYS: 50% approve of Obama, 62% approve of Nixon
SWMO: 38% approve of Obama, 58% approve of Nixon

Obama's approval among Democrats in 20 points higher than Nixon's whereas the exact opposite is true among Southwest Missourians. Nixon's approval rating is actually 1 point higher in the Ozarks than St. Louis.
***
53% of Missourians approve of Sen. Kit Bond while just 49% approve of Sen. Claire McCaskill, according to the same poll.

KEY NUMBERS:
GOP: 73% approve of Bond, 23% approve of McCaskill
DEMS: 42% approve of Bond, 68% approve of McCaskill
INDYS: 40% approve of Bond, 46% approve of McCaskill
SWMO: 56% approve of Bond, 47% approve of McCaskill

While McCaskill holds the lowest approval rating of the four, her support remains the most even among all geographic areas. On the other hand, Bond enjoys much greater crossover support from the opposing party than McCaskill does.

Cattleman Complains of Senate Stalemate

ALL BULL?

With five weeks left in the legislative session, some worry a Senate stalemate is putting other important legislative work in peril.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 6 REPORT HERE

While the upper chamber has spent entire nights filibustering the Governor's proposed economic development bill, Polk County cattle farmer Mark Sconce is afraid his priority of implementing tougher penalties against cattle rustlers is stuck in the mud.

"Maybe they feel like they're doing their jobs by filibustering but they're not doing the Missouri citizens or the Missouri taxpayers any good," said Sconce, who spent a day in the capitol last week lobbying for tougher penalties for cattle rustlers.

"Each year, there are major important pieces of legislation that don't survive the legislative process and that's one of the harsh facts of life in the Missouri General Assembly," said Sen. Gary Nodler, R-Joplin, at an event in Springfield on Friday. But he said he's concerned that "one or two Senators" are abusing the filibuster process.

"I am worried about the progress because timing is always crucial," Sen. Nodler said.

Elmer to Speak To College Republicans

Nixa alderman Kevin Elmer will speak to College Republicans at Missouri State University Monday night at 6 p.m.

***

Elmer tells The Notebook he will be setting forth some of his agenda if he decides to launch a bid for Congress. "I will also be giving some details about myself and why I would run," Elmer said.

Elmer's talk will take place in Plaster Student Union, Room 315B

While Elmer has previously said he will likely run for Roy Blunt's open Congressional seat in 2010, he is not likely to make an official announcement until May.

Right now, Sen. Jack Goodman and auctioneer Billy Long are the only officially announced candidates. Convoy of Hope President Hal Donaldson has launched "an exploratory committee." Yesterday, Steve Helms told The Notebook he would consider a 7th District House campaign.

Nodler Touts Healthcare Expansion

NODLER: Senate Version Should Give House Conservatives Assurances

Senate Appropriations Chair Gary Nodler said a plan to expand health insurance coverage to 35,000 Missouri parents should give House Republicans the necessary assurances that new state money won't be needed to fund it.

Nodler spoke at a press conference with the Missouri Hospital Association Friday, to announce the Appropriations Committee's adoption of a planned aimed at reducing the uninsured.

The Senate's budget plan would extend eligibility from 20 percent of the poverty level to 50 percent of the poverty level. Hospitals would voluntarily provide the funding through an increase in the federal provider tax. It's estimated that 8,000 Southwest Missouri parents could take advantage of the program, including approximately 1,600 in Greene County.

The House did not increase eligibility in its own budget. Republicans said they were leery to approve an expansion without assurances that the funding stream would be there. Nodler explained that the Senate identified a separate funding line that would guarantee the program would not use general revenue.

"That feature, which is the coding of the funding source within the budget, that should give assurance to conservative legislators that there is not a downstream exposure or risk to a future demand on general revenue," Nodler said, when asked to explain the difference between the House and Senate plans.

*WATCH HIS FULL EXPLANATION ABOVE*

"The House's debate was exclusively on whether or not to include these eligibilities," Nodler said. "There was no discussion about . . . the funding source for this expansion."

ALSO: Dr. Larry Halverson of Cox: "For me, it seems like a no-brainer. It's a very small step. It's the lowest of the low income, the lowest of the low income who are parents, who have a job, at least 1 job, and are caring for their children, the future of Missouri."

Engler: "We're Not Near Pressure Time Yet"

UNDER PRESSURE

GOP Floor Leader Kevin Engler believes the Senate may not reach a compromise on legislation to expand tax incentives for businesses until the upper chamber faces the pressure that comes with the end of the legislative session.

"If we don't get these done in two to three weeks, we're ok. It's still possible to get them done," said Sen. Engler, referring to stimulus funding, the Ameren nuclear plant bill and the economic development legislation as three items that will take up the most time and fuel the most contentious debate during the last month of the session.

*5 weeks remain in the legislative session. It ends May 15th*

***

On Wednesday, the Senate debated Governor Jay Nixon's top economic priority for more than 10 hours without reaching a compromise. Conservative Republicans want to reign in the tax credits doled out to businesses who set up shop in Missouri by installing a cap. A group of liberal Democrats have been filibustering the bill to prevent a credit cap that they argue would inhibit development and revitalization in urban areas. The House version of the bill would eliminate the current $60 million dollar cap on tax credits.

"I've never seen the same bill being filibustered on both sides of the aisle for opposite reasons," Engler said. "Some things have to be done under pressure. We're not near pressure time yet."

Engler defined "pressure time" as the final two weeks of the session. He said that's when outside influences will begin to take hold and pressure both sides to cut a deal.

"You'll get groups to tell their side, 'you've got to give some reforms,' so we can keep our program or get our bill," Engler explained.

The earliest the Senate will take up the economic development bill again will be in two weeks. Next week's debate will be entirely focused on the 2010 budget.

Helms Considering Congressional Run

Greene County Circuit Clerk Steve Helms said he's considering a U.S. Congressional run for Roy Blunt's 7th District seat in 2010 because none of the other candidates get him excited.

"I would imagine every Republican officeholder, it's crossed their mind: What about me?," Helms said in an interview Thursday. "I'm just not really seeing, in the current field, the type of candidate I'd like to see represent Southwest Missouri. I think Southwest Missouri is very conservative," Helms said.

He said that not all of the candidates are conservative "in all areas," adding "I'm not saying I would fit the bill." "President Obama is making us a very socialistic nation, and I'm just very concerned," Helms said, citing Newt Gingrich's leadership numerous times during our conversation.

"I don't see anyone that gets me excited. I go down the list and see that it would probably be politics as usual," Helms said.

***

Helms said he has spoken with announced candidates Sen. Jack Goodman and Billy Long as well as likely candidate Kevin Elmer, who is a Nixa alderman.

"I'm interested in Hal Donaldson's candidacy, but I'm going to give it some time to see how it shakes out."

Asked when he'll decide, Helms replied: "I would think I would make a decision sooner rather than later. Time is not on my side. I'd have a lot of groundwork to do. Money is not my forte. It would take a lot of small donations."

***

Helms' decision does involve political risk. He faces re-election in 2010 in his current role as Circuit Clerk. "I've really enjoyed it and believe we're making good progress, but I never swore I'd stay forever."

Blunt: Mexican A.G. Says Violence On Its Way in the Right Direction

Fresh back from a 5-day trip to South America, Congressman Roy Blunt said the Attorney General of Mexico believes violence in the country "is on its way in the right direction."

"I'm hopeful that he's right," the Congressman said in a phone interview later.

Blunt held a morning conference call with reporters to explain his trip. Blunt visited Mexico, Panama and Colombia with Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer between Friday and Wednesday.

Blunt praised Mexican President Felipe Calderon for pushing for extradition of top drug leaders and cracking down on cartel corruption that is fueling much of the recent border violence. He also mentioned the impact of the Combat Meth Act, and how immediately afterwards, it caused "an immediate surge of Mexican meth," because of the crackdown here.

He said Mexican and U.S. meth prices have apparently doubled, because it's more difficult to make meth and harder to get it into the country. "It's dramatically limited the supply," Blunt explained.
***

Blunt also mentioned extensive meetings with the presidents of Panama and Colombia. He said both leaders are very appreciative of the Mexican government's effort to combat the drug wars. He also said they agreed on a broad consensus strategy to move forward. "It was helpful to try to figure out what has worked and didn't work in dealing with cartel corruption and the national security threats they present," Blunt said.

Asked later about Mexico's opinion of the United States putting troops on the border, he said, "I think they are highly appreciative of the cooperation."

A technical difficulty with the conference call cut off the Q & A session with reporters, but the Congressman followed up with personal phone calls to answer questions later in the day.

Bond Fighting Obama Spy Satellite Plan

Senator Kit Bond is voicing stiff opposition to an Obama administration plan to spend billions of dollars on new spy satellites.
***
According to Government Executive, under the plan, the intelligence community would buy and launch new electro-optical satellites over the next decade. Such satellites use ultraviolet, visible and infrared rays to identify objects on the Earth's surface. But Bond, the ranking member on the Senate Intelligence committee is pushing an alternative that calls for increasing the deployment of less-sophisticated satellites.

"The amount of resources this acquisition will consume is very large and the savings from selecting a cheaper but equally effective alternative could be applied to meet other critical intelligence shortfalls," Bond said.

Your Questions, McCaskill's Answers

Q & A
The Notebook asked for your questions for Sen. Claire McCaskill as she tours the state during the Congressional recess. Below is video of her full answers given during her Springfield stop to your inquiries on gay marriage, A.I.G. bonuses, a student minimum wage and Twitter.


GAY MARRIAGE
"According to the Iowa Supreme Court I was wrong."

Q: Ron Bradley asked about Iowa's gay marriage ruling, and if the Senator would be comfortable with a similar court decision in this state?

McCaskill said "they couldn't make a similar decision in Missouri because there's a constitutional amendment." When reminded that she said such an amendment wasn't needed in Missouri, she replied, "According to the Iowa Supreme Court I was wrong."

A.I.G. BONUS TAX
"I would vote for it."

Q: Dustin James asked about the A.I.G. bonuses and if she supported the Congressional move to take them away.

McCaskill said she did, although possibly in a different way than the House voted to do so. "If somebody's doing a really good job and they want to give them a bonus, that's fine, but they need to wait to collect it, after we've been paid back," McCaskill said.

Also notes the President Obama is criticized whether he intervenes in companies or he doesn't.

STUDENT MINIMUM WAGE
"I think that's a bad idea."

Q: Brian Rushing asked if Sen. McCaskill would support a special student minimum wage to help protect small family-owned businesses?

McCaskill said she would not. "We need to be giving college kids as much help as possible," she said.

Mentions she's not proud that MIZZOU leads the Big 12 in tuition.


THE AGE OF TWITTER
"I think, what would Jim Talent think?"

Q: Greg Holman wanted to know if McCaskill really thinks Twitter will help Democrats win elections?

McCaskill doesn't believe Twitter is a fad and explained how it serves as a great discipline, because it makes her think about Missouri.

She reads each Twitter three times before she clicks.
First, she makes sure what she thinks.
Then, she asks what her grandmother would think.
Finally, she thinks "what would Jim Talent think."

Fair Grove Fire Tax Passes By Just 8 Votes

A new fire tax in the Fair Grove District passed on Tuesday by just 8 votes, 342 to 334.

The fire district encompasses territory in four counties, with the largest section in Greene County, but a tiny sliver of voters in Polk County may have been the difference in putting the new tax over the top.

"One vote or a 1,000 votes, we still won. We got our tax levy passed, so we're very excited," said Fair Grove Fire Chief Mike Armstrong.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

Show-Me Institute Hosts Public Policy Discussion

The Show-Me Institute is holding a dinner and lecture by Joseph Lehman, president of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, Wednesday night at Metropolitan Grill.

***

Lehman will be speaking about "How Think Tanks Change Public Policy."

Local politicos are expected to be in attendance.

TWITTER UPDATES HERE

Blunt Spring-Breaking in South America

BOGOTA, HELLO

Congressman Roy Blunt is on a delegation trip in South America this week.

He'll hold a conference call with reporters Thursday to discuss visits to Mexico and Colombia. His visit included meetings with foreign leaders to discuss trade and address the problems of drug trafficking and border violence.

***

But some politicos wonder if it would've been wiser to use the week traveling the state for his U.S. Senate run.

UPDATED @ 10:20 PM: BLUNT CAMPAIGN RESPONDS

"What are the "politicos" saying about Robin Carnahan not holding any public campaign events or campaign news conferences since her February 3 announcement?," asked spokesperson Rich Chrismer. "In the first six weeks of his campaign Roy Blunt traveled to every region of the state, visited 18 counties and participated in nearly 30 events," Chrismer added.

Harris Calls on Court to Halt Lobbying on Proposed Judicial Changes

The House has given initial approval to a constitutional amendment that would give more power to the Governor to select state judges by amending what's known as "The Missouri Plan."
***
House Joint Resolution 10 was approved with bipartisan support, according to Better Courts for Missouri Executive Director James Harris. But he's also calling on the Supreme Court to end lobbying against the changes.

Harris said the changes would essentially do four things:

• Add "Sunshine" to the process
• Increase the amount of names presented to the Governor for approval
• Give the Governor the right to reject a panel of candidates recommended by the Judicial Commission with veto power
  
• Add a citizen to the Judicial Commission

Harris also said the Supreme Court shouldn't be involved in crafting or influencing the pending legislation.

"Over the past few weeks, state personnel and judges have engaged in lobbying and political activity," Harris said. "These judges have taken an oath to uphold the Constitution of the State of Missouri. Maybe they should be reminded that Article V. Section 25 (f) prohibits judges from being involved in political activity. Lobbying against a measure that is being heard in the Missouri Legislature and will ultimately be placed before the public for a vote violates not only the letter of the law, but very essence of the judicial system," Harris added.

He said Chief Justice Laura Stith should tell court members to "cease any and all lobbying efforts."

Senate approval for this amendment will be more difficult. Several Democratic Senators, who see nothing wrong with the current process, are expected to filibuster the changes when it hits the floor sometime next week.

Martz Hit With Oppo Flier in Final Days

COMMITTEE CALLED CANDIDATE "UNACCEPTABLE"

The Springfield Good Government Committee paid for thousands of mailers in the final days before the election that called Tom Martz an "unacceptable alternative" to candidate Robert Stephens in the race for General Council Seat A.

Stephens defeated Martz by 510 votes or 4 percentage points Tuesday night.

The opposition flier, which hit Springfield mailboxes just days before the election, is evidence that Martz' candidacy was a bigger threat to some in the business community than originally expected. Such hardball tactics are expected in legislative and statewide races, but are less common in local, non-partisan races in Springfield.

The flier takes half of the page to advocate for Stephens as the candidate "endorsed by a formal coalition of local business and community leaders." But in big bold print, the left side of the flier blares, "The Alternative Is Unacceptable."

"Opponent is NOT A LONGTIME RESIDENT OF SPRINGFIELD," reads the flier. "While he does have a history of sitting on the sidelines at meetings, he DOES NOT HAVE A PROVEN TRACK RECORD OF CIVIC INVOLVEMENT."

The flier never mentions Martz by name. But it clearly takes him to task on issues. "INSTEAD OF LISTENING TO A CITIZEN TASK FORCE forming to recommend solutions to the police and fire pension fund, OPPONENT WANTS TO TAKE AWAY YOUR OPPORTUNITY TO VOTE TO APPROVE THE CITY'S HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS PROGRAM, stopping important infrastructure projects to improve traffic flow and safety by expanding our intersections and streets," the flier blasts.

Martz, a conservative with libertarian leanings, ran an outsider candidacy, consistently pushing for less city spending and smaller government.

Finally it targets Martz on parks: "Opponent REJECTS OUR VOTER-APPROVED BALLOT INITIATIVES to improve and maintain our award winning parks system which also brings thousands of out-of-town dollars to our city hosting events and tournaments."

Springfield Homebuilders CEO Matt Morrow is listed as the Treasurer of the Springfield Good Government Committee, which paid for the flier.

According to campaign finance reports, the Good Government Committee paid $3,077.26 to Ozark Mailing Services on April 2nd. The committee also lists a $2,525,66 direct expenditure to Stephens on that same day. The group also gave $551.60 to unsuccessful incumbent Denny Whayne, who lost to Nick Ibarra Tuesday.

O'Neal Routs Springfield Mayor's Race

NO LUCK NECESSARY

Jim O'Neal handily defeated his more conservative challenger Chris Donegan Tuesday night, becoming Springfield's new mayor two decades after he first served on City Council.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 COVERAGE HERE

READ TWITTER UPDATES FROM O'NEAL's PARTY HERE

WATCH PART OF MY POST-ELECTION INTERVIEW BELOW

BUT IF YOU ONLY WATCH ONE THING . . .

ENJOY THE BAGPIPES with a special guest appearance from ever-excitable and over-the-top Zone 3 Councilman Ralph Manley

"PLUM EXCITED"

O'Neal Elected New Springfield Mayor

Jim O'Neal at his victory party at the Doubletree Hotel in north Springfield Tuesday night.

For up-to-the-minute election updates, head to my Twitter page at www.twitter.com/davecatanese.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T

Decision 2009: Get Your Results Here

POLLS CLOSED

***RESULTS . . . DEVELOPING***

GET LOCAL ELECTION RESULTS HERE

***

Springfield elects a new Mayor

Jim O'Neal is heavily favored over Chris Donegan

***

In Zone 1, will incumbent Denny Whayne survive?

Nick Ibarra is mounting a strong challenge.

Bob Stephens & Tom Martz face-off in General A

John Rush & Fred Ellison face-off in General B

***

Can conservative Eric Jensen will his way onto the school board?

It's a Best 3 of 4 Contest

ALSO: Camden County tries for 2% lodging tax hike

WATCH what they're pushing for HERE

AND: Christian County asks for a higher sales tax to pay for 911 services.

WATCH the story HERE.

Watch for Full Results on KY3 News @ 10

Blunt Requests $153 M in Earmarks for 2010

Congressman Roy Blunt has requested $153 million dollars in earmarks for the 2010 fiscal year, including $45 million dollars for a Joplin company to help develop a missile defense program.

The $45 million dollar earmark for LaBarge Inc. is the largest of Blunt's requests listed on his House website.

Under new House rules regarding the earmark process, members who ask for funding must post each request on their Web site. The deadline for posting was Saturday.

Taxpayers for Common Sense, a group that's poured through most of the House member web sites lists Blunt as one of the lawmakers who didn't meet the deadline. But Blunt's earmarks were listed on his site by Monday afternoon, and spokesperson Nick Simpson said he wasn't sure why the group listed Blunt as not complying. Simpson said he believed they were posted by Friday afternoon.

Blunt's second biggest earmark request is also for a Joplin company to help develop military technology. The $10 million dollar request for Accenture National Security Services is described as a program "to distribute services and manage them for the entire military enterprise."

The Congressman asked for about $35 million dollars for Springfield projects, including $3 million to expand wireless broadband access for city employees, $2 million for a natural gas fueling station for city vehicles, $1.3 million dollars for Wilson's Creek National Battlefield Visitor Center, $1.16 million for a foreign language training program at Missouri State University, $1 million dollars for software, video conferencing and other equipment for Greene County Emergency Operations and $600,000 for a pre-kindergarten program.

The Taxpayers for Common Sense note that lawmakers aren't using any uniform standard to disclose the spending items. "The only thing consistent among the various web sites is inconsistency," says the website. "Some lawmakers put a link to the disclosures right on the home page, while others bury their requests under an electronic rock, forcing constituents to click through several pages under legislation, district initiatives, issues or some other general category. Once you get to the disclosures themselves they take all manner of forms, from scores of actual letters to summary write-ups on the page. Some lawmakers have failed to include the requested amounts as directed. While others, like Reps. Kingston (R-GA), Driehaus (D-OH), and Rehberg (R-MT) have posted all the requests their office received rather than just what they decided to request of the Appropriations Committee, effectively obscuring the information from their constituents and contravening the spirit, if not the letter of the new rule," the site goes on.

Meanwhile, the Citizens Against Congressional Waste is out with their own 2008 Pig Book, a list of projects included in an appropriation bill that does not go through the normal budgetary process. CAGW said Blunt had 22 questionable projects, totaling around $46 million. Sen. Kit Bond had 142 projects at $309 million.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, Sen. John McCain and Sen. Russ Feingold are the only U.S. Senators not on the list, because they don't request earmarks.

Election Group Pans Voter I.D. Passage Out of Cmt.

Missourians for Fair Elections is panning a House committee vote on a voter I.D. bill Tuesday morning.

The House Elections Committee's 7 to 5 vote to approve a substitute version of the original bill was a "surprise," according to FAIR.

"In a swift move meant to circumvent public comment on the proposal, Rep. Stan Cox replaced his single page photo ID bill, HJR 9, with an 11 page committee substitute version of the bill as it came up for a vote," said Bob Quinn of FAIR in a release.

Quinn said Cox' proposal calls for "overly-restrictive photo ID and unfamiliar advance voting requirements." "Neither of the revised provisions were heard in a public forum by the committee so that concerned voters, advocates and affected organizations could share their views on the drastically overhauled measure," said Quinn.

"This legislation is so radically different from the original that the only thing that’s the same is the bill number," said state Rep. Michael Frame, D-Eureka. "We had absolutely no testimony on the ramifications of this legislation and the significant problems that could arise from writing it into the Missouri Constitution."

The Cox proposal would require ever Missouri voter to provide a government-issued photo I.D. in order to cast a ballot. Critics argue the move would disenfranchise tens of thousands of potential voters.

The Tax Man Cometh

The revelation that Congressman Roy Blunt erroneously received a tax exemption for his $1.6 million dollar Washington, D.C. home will likely be used against him in his U.S. Senate run next year.

POLITCO writes: "Even if Blunt can chalk this up to a tax mistake, it opens him up to the old Tom Daschle accusation, as Missouri Democrats will certainly use this to paint Blunt as a rich Washington insider who's lost touch with the people back in his home state. Back in 2004, Daschle was portrayed as out of touch for living in a multi-million dollar home in the exclusive Foxhall neighborhood of Washington, and Daschle wasn't able to shake that reputation, losing his Senate seat."

Sunday night, The Kansas City Star broke news that Blunt's tax records show he took advantage of Washington's homestead exemption -- even though he doesn't claim to be a resident of D.C.

Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer pointed the finger at D.C. officials, for mistakenly allowing the exemption.

Mo. Democrats couldn't wait to show their hand:

"Today’s news report in the Kansas City Star showing that Congressman Blunt is receiving undeserved tax breaks is troubling, to say the least," said Missouri Democratic Party Chair Craig Hosmer. "If he believes that he’s based in Washington, he owes the people of Missouri two explanations: why he permanently moved to Washington, and why he’s getting tax breaks that he doesn’t qualify for. Our elected officials should be above reproach, and no matter who he tries to shift the blame to, he’s ultimately responsible for his own taxes. If he’s going to run for the U.S. Senate, we expect him to come clean on this as soon as possible," added Hosmer.

Camden County to Decide on Lodging Tax

OSAGE BEACH, Mo. -- For the second time in ten months, voters in Camden County will decide Tuesday whether to tax hotel guests more to help promote the Lake of the Ozarks.

A ballot measure asks voters to raise the lodging tax from 3 to 5 percent. It's a tax that will impact tourists but be decided by residents.

Camden County's lodging tax is well below Missouri's other top tourism spots. Kansas City is at 7.5%, St. Louis is at 7.2%, Springfield is at 5.2% and Branson is at 5%.

Read the entire KY3 News @ 10 story HERE.

Senate Grants First Round Approval to Nixon's Scholarship Expansion

The Missouri Senate has voted to expand the A+ Scholarship program to allow all high schools to participate at a cost of $ 7 million dollars.

***

Right now, students must attend an A + school "designated" school to qualify. The measure would provide scholarships for a third and fourth year of college to qualified students who first complete a two-year degree and maintain a B average. But the Associated Press reports that Senators rejected an amendment that would have equalized the size of scholarships from the need-based Access Missouri program to students attending public and private colleges.

***

GOV. NIXON'S STATEMENT:

"I am very pleased that the Missouri Senate has given initial approval to the Missouri Promise, my plan to create a pathway to a debt-free, four-year degree for middle-class families. And I thank Sen. Mayer for providing bipartisan leadership on this important bill."

Labor Dept. Finds 39 Fraudulently Using Unemployment

The Missouri Department of Labor reports that audits of unemployment insurance have lead to 39 people pleading guilty to fraud charges.

***

According to Director Larry Rebman, routine audits revealed that 39 ineligible individuals received the benefits. "These individuals provided false information on weekly applications for UI benefits which caused benefits to be paid improperly," said Rebman in a release.


The individuals are charged with stealing by deceit and are court ordered to pay close to $150,000 in restitution. Those charged face a Class C felony and will be ordered to make restitution.

Rebman says HB916 would prevent those with outstanding penalties due to fraud, receiving unemployment insurance.

MIAC Director Demoted

The Missouri State Highway Patrol has named a new director of the Missouri Information Analysis Center, twelve days after the it scrapped a controversial report which inflamed conservatives.

***

Lt. David Hall will replace Van Godsey as the center's new director, the Patrol announced Monday. Van Godsey was reassigned to another division.

The report outraged conservatives for its references to anti-abortionists, anti-immigration advocates and supporters of third party candidates as potential terrorist threats.

"I am confident Lt. Hall has the experience and expertise necessary to oversee the functions of the Missouri Information Analysis Center," said Colonel James Keathley in a statement.

McCaskill: World Must Present United Front Against North Korea

Sen. Claire McCaskill said the world community must show a united front against North Korea's launch of a long-range rocket Sunday.

"I think it's important that we ramp up the pressure, all of the diplomatic tools we can use, all of the sticks and carrots we can use," McCaskill said, meeting with Springfield reporters on Saturday.

*WATCH HER FULL ANSWER ABOVE*

North Korea claims that the missile is a vehicle to launch satellites, but the U.S. and its allies regard satellite and missile technologies as interchangeable.

"I am convinced, after briefings this week, that we are prepared to look and see exactly what it is," McCaskill said.

The Notebook posed the question to the Senator before the missile launch as part of a round of questions that viewers and readers submitted via Twitter & Facebook.

Loyal reader @mattlyons wrote presciently: "Ask McCaskill if we should shoot down the N. Korean missile test slated tomorrow. If not, whats the right course to pursue?"
***

OTHER REACTION:

• President Obama said the "provocation underscores the need for action - not just this afternoon at the UN Security Council, but in our determination to prevent the spread of these weapons."
• Speaking on ABC's This Week, U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice said she would push for tougher sanctions against the North Koreans.
• Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said he would have attempted to knock down the missile.
  
• DRUDGE banner: "NO THEY DIDN'T!!"
• AP: "North Korea's defiant launch of a long-range rocket has confronted President Barack Obama with his first global security crisis and a difficult diplomatic challenge for his young administration."

Blunt Gets "Real Time" via Sam Donaldson

2 SWMO MENTIONS IN 1 SHOW

Appearing on this week's Real Time with Bill Maher on HBO, legendary ABC News correspondent Sam Donaldson dropped Roy Blunt's name while discussing healthcare.
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Donaldson said he had recently talked to Blunt about reaching a compromise on healthcare and "was encouraged." "I talked to Roy Blunt, who's the whip in the House for the Republicans, last night and I was a little surprised," Donaldson said. "He said, 'I think we can make a deal. Now the big stumbling block of course is the idea that the government should have an insurance option that people can use," he went on. "But he said that's not insurmountable."

"And I think on all the rest, if people follow a Roy Blunt model, we're going to have the deal on healthcare," Donaldson said.

Of course, Donaldson misspoke when he referred to Blunt as the current Whip. Virginia Rep. Eric Cantor now fills that role for the GOP, taking over the reins after the 2008 election.

ALSO: ANOTHER MENTION FOR BRANSON

During his "New Rules" segment, Maher took humorous aim at FOX's Glenn Beck:

"New Rule, since Glenn Beck is clearly on to us, liberals must launch our plan for socialist domination immediately. Listen closely comrades, I've received word from General Soros and our partners in the U.N: Operation Streisand is a go! . . . (applause) . . . Markos Moulitsas and your Daily Kos controlled Army of gay, Mexican, day-laborers will join forces with Michael Moore's Prius tank division, north of Branson, where you will seize the guns of everyone who doesn't blame America first, forcing them into the FEMA concentration camps. That's where ACORN and I will re-educate them as atheists and declare victory in the war on Christmas!"

Week 12: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 12 GRADE: B +

Governor Jay Nixon made considerable progress this week towards accomplishing two of his main goals of the legislative session. And he can thank the State Senate for it. After snagging the backing of Associated Industries (a group that backed Republican Kenny Hulshof for Governor), Nixon won the endorsement of the upper chamber for his health care expansion plan. Then, on Friday, the Missouri State University Board of Governors voted not to raise tuition for the next school year, a move that should firm up the Governor's higher education goal of keeping funding stable. His top priority, of producing a broader economic development package, however, remains in the Senate meat-grinder, stuck inside a debate over tax credits that may end up defining the '09 session. While passions are high and certain lawmakers have cited principle in order to draw a "tax credit cap" line in the sand, there is some hope that this upcoming week is when a compromise can finally be brokered. Sen. John Griesheimer told Missourinet: "Let's get the bill out of the Senate, stand down, don't filibuster, if you've got to vote no vote no, but let the bill go to conference and let's work on a compromise version."

McCaskill Backs Baucus Healthcare Model