Monday, July 31, 2006

Rasmussen: McCaskill Moves Ahead

In the latest seesaw that is the Missouri U.S. Senate race, Democrat Claire McCaskill has inched ahead of Senator Jim Talent in the July Rasmussen tracking poll to lead the incumbent 45% to 42%.

The candidates were tied at 42% in the survey just last month.

"While a 3 point-lead for the challenger is well within the survey's margin of sampling error, it is a concern for any incumbent to be so far below the 50% level of support at this point in the campaign," Rasmussen reports in its write-up.

Both candidates register 83% support from voters in their own party, but McCaskill leads with 62% of self-identified moderates.

In the poll, Talent's favorability rating has dropped 5 points since June to 52% -- while his unfavorable rating has climbed to 42%. McCaskill's overall favorability has also dropped one point to 56%, however those surveyed who report having a very favorable opinion of the state auditor has jumped from 19% to 24%.

This survey of 500 likely voters was taken on July 20th, the same day that Talent's new television ad launched. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

Will Talent get a bounce in the August poll because of the TV blitz?

Chatter: Springfield School Leaders Are For Denison; Dunn Aide Predicts Narrow Victory

The blog Chatter is breaking some news tonight about Rep. Charlie Denison's fundraising.

Ron Davis delivers the scoop that both the Springfield Public School Superintendent and the Board of Education President are supporting Denison's re-election bid to the #135 legislative seat with campaign contributions.

Why is it relevant? According to Chatter, "the contributions were made one day after Denison wrongly claimed the school district was hosting a fundraiser for him."

Davis goes on to note that neither of Denison's opponents have received contributions from the school leaders.

David Dunn is challenging Denison in the Aug. 8th primary. Tonight, Dunn political adviser Tim Trower told me that Dunn has closed the race "quite considerably" in the last few weeks.

"My prediction is that Dunn will win this race, probably narrowly, but we will win this one," Trower said.

Nancy Hagan will challenge whoever wins.

Democrats are already salivating at the chance to take on a Republican that doesn't have the luxury of incumbency. "Denison is vulnerable. This is a bruising primary for him, and they'll be scrambling in that district if they don't have an incumbent to protect," said Democratic strategist Nora Walcott.

Can Joe Pyles Pull An Upset in the 139th?

Can a candidate for a higher minimum wage, for the stem cell ballot initiative, supportive of restoring Medicaid cuts for the working disabled and revamping the license fee offices really win a northern Greene County G.O.P primary?

That's what Joe Pyles is trying to do in the 139th.

The Republican primary for the 139th legislative district includes three candidates, Shane Schoeller, Joe Pyles and Karen Roark. I couldn't find campaign websites for Schoeller or Roark, so Pyles gets the only web profile for now.

On his campaign website, Pyles tries to make the case that he's the only candidate in this race that is serious about representing the 139th. "I didn't move to the 139th to run for office or file on the last day. I am not part of any political machine," Pyles writes.

A Fair Grove resident, Pyles has served on the West Plains city council and fought in Operation Desert Storm. He's now a media consultant, so it's not surprising he has a website. He talks about bringing "political attention" to northern Greene County, by holding community meetings and town hall events. His list of issues include noting his "pro-life, anti-gun control" stands, but his positions on hot-button topics like Medicaid and stem cells do stand out above all. You certainly don't see those positions on the campaign websites of many Republicans running in southwest Missouri.

Still, he seems to reject the label of a "progressive or moderate." We gave him that label in a previous entry. And he's responded on his site. "The media tries to label Joe as a progressive, moderate. He just reminds you that he is just a human being that's offering his services to represent all parties, all views."

Pyles is attempting to reach out to moderate Republicans and even Democrats. He says he's chosen the Republican party because it best governs free enterprise, prevents government intervention and doesn't find ways to raise taxes. But Pyles promises he'll listen to Democratic ideas respectfully and work with the other side effectively.

Pyles also tries to take the populist approach when it comes to money, pledging that while he may be outraised and outspent, it won't matter. He says he has a "conservative budget" of $45,750 to spend on this race. On the donation part of the site, he recommends an $80 contribution for a primary victory . . . and a $110 contribution for a general election win.

I haven't seen any evidence of where this primary race stands, but insiders say Karen Roark will be the favorite just because of her name. That means if Pyles is able to pull off a win this primary night, it would be one of the big stories of election night.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

Hancock Endorses Jackson; Colonel Says He's Got a Double-Digit Lead in Auditor Primary

Republican auditor candidate and state Rep. Jack Jackson (R-Wildwood) campaigned at the Ozark Empire Fair Sunday, touting an endorsement by former U.S. Congressman Mel Hancock.

"Jack Jackson is not the kind of person who sticks his finger in the wind to test the political weather before he makes a move. When Jack Jackson says he'll get the job done, he'll do it," Hancock said, according to a release put out by the Jackson campaign.

With just nine days until the primary, Jackson said his internal campaign polls show him leading his 4 Republican competitors by almost double-digits.

"For awhile it was bunched up. What I'm seeing here is the people coming by already know me, they've seen my TV commercials, heard my radio commercials. I've been down here so much, they're beginning to know me," Jackson said.

The Vietnam veteran said he is currently leading in Greene County. "I'll tell you, it is critical I get Greene County. This is Mel Hancock area. I'm spending a lot of time here because if you don't carry this part of the state, you are probably not going to win."

Jackson said his military service combined with his management background and political experience helps him win over voters who may be undecided or uninterested in the auditor's race. "No other candidate has all these credentials," Jackson said. "They can't compete with their area of expertise. Mine is so broad."

"People always ask, what are you doing with the money we sent you with in Jefferson City. What do you need anymore,?" Jackson said.

If elected, Jackson said he would embed auditors to review financial plans at the beginning of major government programs, rather than after they have already been completed. "Let's solve it up front," Jackson said. "When they hear that, that's when people begin to get excited."

Jackson faces four Republicans in the August 8th primary . . . Springfield Rep. Mark Wright, Al Hanson, Platte County Auditor Sandra Thomas and State senator John Loudon. Here are brief profiles of each.

Does Jackson believe Claire McCaskill has been a good auditor?

"She started out good. In the first year and a half, I thought she did a good job and then she began to worry about her next promotion and things have fallen by the side," Jackson said.

Jackson's campaign manager Paul Brown said Jackson is most appealing to older voters. Brown believes Jackson's biggest competition in the crowded primary is Loudon, because he attracts younger voters and has money.

Friday, July 28, 2006

Which Senators Does McCaskill Admire?

Senator Jim Talent's campaign says if Claire McCaskill was to go to Washington she'd become a Senator in the mold of Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy.

More than particular policy points, those names are meant to ignite urgency and rally the Republican base, which despises what those two politicians embody.

But what kind of Senator would McCaskill really be when she got there? I decided to try and get an idea by asking her which Senators she admires.

"That's a really tough question," McCaskill began, noting that she admires different Senators for different reasons.

But credit McCaskill this much, she answered the question . . . maybe safely, but she didn't duck.

"I admire Senators who've been able to stay independent of their party," McCaskill said.

Good examples? Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter and South Dakota Democrat Tim Johnson.

"Arlen Specter has been able to stay independent and hold government accountable appropriately. I certainly admire Tim Johnson for his independence and how he's fighting for the family farmer," McCaskill said.

"He's a great example of someone who understands you have to take care of the independent producer and family farmer instead of just big corporate agriculture," McCaskill said of Johnson.

But her main criteria for picking her favorite Senators is "those who are willing to kind of ignore what they are being told by their party and fight for what they believe in."

Not surprisingly, McCaskill took the opportunity to note that Sen. Talent has voted with President Bush 94% of the time.

"I will never vote with a President 94% of the time," McCaskill pledged.
Not even a Democratic President? "I can't imagine," McCaskill responded. "I've never voted with a Democratic Governor 94% of the time. I think Missourians know. I ran against the Governor of my own party. That takes a lot of independence."

Rep. Blunt Predicts House Will Pass Minimum Wage Hike

Majority Whip Roy Blunt says the U.S. House of Representatives will vote to increase the minimum wage sometime before the midterm elections, according to a Boston Globe story.

It would be the first House vote in a decade on boosting the minimum wage, a contentious issue nationwide and here in Missouri. Rick Klein of the Globe writes that Blunt told a luncheon crowd this week that leaders will vote on the minimum wage "this fall or sooner."

The federal minimum wage has remained frozen at $5.15 since 1997.

"We're at the point where that vote is coming," Blunt told the Globe. "I'm not sure that it's a 'must-pass,' but it will probably be a 'will-pass.' "

Blunt said the minimum wage would be part of a package of proposals, but an aide said leaders are still working on a specific plan, and said that no specific timeline for a vote has been set.

Look Who's On TV

With just 11 days until the primary election, here's a quick check of who's got the money to run television ads.

Senator Jim Talent is up and running early with two different ads highlighting the bipartisan legislation he has worked on. One ad uses a voiceover while the other uses Talent's voice. Both convey the same themes . . . unity.

The voiceover ad: "Most people don't care if you're red or blue, Republican or Democrat. They don't use words like partisan or obstructionist . . ."

Point: It's true that most people don't use the words partisan or obstructionist. But like it or not, some people do care if the candidate they are voting for is a Republican or Democrat. From Springfield to St. Robert, I'm always asking people who they are going to vote for and why. Can't put a number on it, but many people ask "which one is the Republican?" Or say, "He's the Republican, right? My vote's for him." Like it or not, that's still how some people vote and they have that right. But I get the point of the ad.

Talent's voice ad: "You have to work together if you want to accomplish anything of real value . . . There's enough to disagree about in Washington without disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing . . . We have to have at least a measure of bipartisan support, and we've done that."

Point: This ad has the same point . . . to show that in this polarizing political environment, Talent can work with even the most liberal members of the other side to pass things like the Combat Meth Act, renewable fuel standards and small business legislation.

Critics say the ad shows Talent running from his party. They point out the ad hardly mentions that Talent is "A Senator," a sign that he doesn't want to be the incumbent. Overall, pretty solid, positive ads, presenting the Senator in a comfortable light.

Who else is on TV?

**Associate Circuit Judge candidate Dan Imhof. His ad is simple . . .

"Fighting crime as a former prosecutor . . . Representing families and small businesses in private practice for nearly a quarter of a century . . ."

Unlike Talent, Imhof embraces his Republican party, even sticking the elephant logo in his ad.
But I guess you can't hide from your party if you just got done chairing it. "A lay leader of his church . . . A former chair of his party . . . A person we can trust."

**Rolla State Senate Candidate Susie Snyders is running in the Republican primary in the Senate District 16 against Merill Townley. Sen. Frank Barnitz won this seat back for the Democrats but will surely have a tough race from the Republican that emerges victorious.

"Susie Snyders won't become part of the political good ole boys network," reads the voiceover. Then Snyders chimes in, "It's about our students getting their fair share . . . and the dollars getting to the classroom where the learning happens."

Snyders begins with education, but then hits all the token issues, but doesn't let on what party she's in. The "good ole boys" comment seems to be key.

Those are the 3 candidates I've seen up and running with ads so far. I'm sure we'll see more in the coming days. Have I missed any? What's the most effective current political advertisement (print/TV or radio) that you've seen? Let me know . . .

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Mayor Collins Calls Ethics Charges 'A Political Ploy'

Republic Mayor Jim Collins today called nepotism charges lodged against him by a Springfield attorney "a political ploy," orchestrated to distract voters' attention days before they cast their ballots in the hottest primary race in the Ozarks.

Collins, who is challenging Rep. Jim Viebrock for his 134th legislative seat, held a press conference in Republic today to clear his name of what he calls baseless allegations.

Earlier this week, Springfield attorney Richard Crites called on Collins to resign because the mayor appointed his wife to a children's committee. Crites said the appointment violated nepotism laws in Missouri's constitution and that Collins should step down.

Collins called the charge ridiculous. He said an ad-hoc committee would not fall under the nepotism clause because it has no "legal or statutory authority," and "has no power to make laws or adjust them."

"Any mayor can appoint their grandchild to one of these committees if they want," Collins said. "These citizens on these committees can brainstorm ideas and then suggest them to those who do have law-making ability."

"This is obviously political, including the timing," Collins said, adding that noone ever raised the issue for a year. "I would never violate any state or local laws. My excellent reputation has been attacked."

Collins said the people of Republic would suffer from this ethics filing, because he may have to use taxpayer money to defend himself from the charge. Collins called on Crites to reveal "who is behind this," so they could pay for the problem that they have caused.

When I asked Collins if he had any evidence Rep. Viebrock was involved, he replied, "I don't have any evidence, but I of course have my suspicions."

Collins said he didn't know why there was so much venom from his supporters and opponents about the upcoming primary vote. "I think a person's public record is fair game. I've put my record out there and referenced (Rep. Viebrock's). I'm not sure who's saying a lot of this on that blog but I think a lot of them are getting twisted up."

Collins reinterated his call for a debate with Viebrock. "I think a debate draws attention to the issues, not to conflict. And if you are up to date on the issues, why not defend your position? If you can't, why do you have the position?"

Collins said he hasn't done any polling on his chances.

So how close does Collins think this race is? "I think it's too close to tell. I really think it's going to be right down to the wire."

Mayor Collins To Respond

KY3 News has learned that Republic Mayor Jim Collins, who is running for the 134th legislative district seat, will hold a press conference today at 2 p.m. to discuss the recent ethics charges lobbed against him.

Collins is challenging Rep. Jim Viebrock for the Republican nomination Aug. 8th. Longtime educator Bob Bilyeu is also running for the seat.

This story is developing . . .

See Steve Helms On A Segway

Steve Helms, one of two Republican candidates running in the #138 legislative district, is focusing on family values, local control in education and lower taxes as part of his campaign.

Those are some standard tenants in the Republican party right now. But on his campaign website . . . http://www.stevehelms.net/ . . . Helms also some ideas on big issues.

He is most detailed on the immigration issue, calling the illegal flow into our country "unacceptable." He writes that he wants to bring illegal immigration back to a "manageable level." How? He talks about new laws that "encourage" law abiding people to come and discourage lawlessness. That seems vague. But Helms does call for the state to adopt a verification program that many employers use to screen for illegals before hiring them. He says a similar verification system could be used to screen immigrants before they get a driver's license, bank account or enroll in a public school.

On healthcare, Helms admits he "doesn't have all the answers." In his announcement speech, he talks about having a "Medicaid program to help the neediest." But Helms steers clear of his specific thoughts about how to reform Medicaid on his website. Helms says individuals should be able to have tax deductible health insurance. He also says he wants to reduce "needless coverage" that drives up costs. He also advocates health courts, which would provide a venue for unnecessary litigation.

Overall, Helms takes a stab at a few issues with some real ideas, rather than just offering up rhetoric. His website gives you the sense he is organized. A calendar invites you to meet Helms Monday at the Brentwood Library from 6-9 p.m. for a meet and greet.

And Helms is already trying to prove he's fiscally responsible, by riding a Segway while campaigning to save gas.

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

State auditor candidates debate

From the Press Release Inbox Wednesday afternoon:

Springfield, MO – The upcoming August 8th primary election is important for the Republican Party. Because the Auditor race is so important the Springfield Metropolitan Republicans will host a debate with the republican candidates for State Auditor on Thursday August 3rd 7:00 p.m., at the Library Center Auditorium. Republican candidates for Auditor include Jack Jackson, Al Hansen, Mark Wright, Sandra Thomas, and John Loudon. In addition to the debate all State and County candidates are invited to the meeting and will be given two minutes to rally volunteers for the 72-hour push before the primary. This event is open to the public.

We hope to see all of you and all of your favorite candidates there.

Fourth party makes pitch for ballot spot

If Republicans, Democrats or Libertarians aren't doing it for you, the Progressive Party a.k.a the Green Party is making its pitch to get on the November ballot.

According to a Wednesday press release, the party has filed petitions with 14,932 signatures with Robin Carnahan. The party has six candidates for statewide and congressional offices. They say they eclipsed the minimum number of signatures by 49%.

Carnahan has until August 22 to accept or reject the petitions.

What are they about? Among the hilights:
- Single payer universal health care
- Ban logging in Missouri's old-growth forests
- Reverse the corporate takeover of our media which have become agencies for business interests and mouthpieces for our imperial government

Let's hope they've been practicing their penmanship.

Tim Barnhart, the coordinator of the petition drive, said the party isn't ready to release names of the candidates until they know for sure if they'll actually be on the ballot. He did say they have folks ready to run for U.S. Senate, auditor and a challenger to Rep. Ike Skelton in the 4th Congressional District.

I asked about the name change. He said there is a Green Party still on the ballot in St. Louis city, unaffiliated with the national Green Party.

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

49% Approve of Talent . . . Senator Gets A 10 Point Boost In the Ozarks

They say an incumbent is vulnerable if he or she falls under the 50% mark in support.
If what they say is true . . . man oh man, do we have a race is Missouri!

SurveyUSA's monthly tracking poll has Senator Jim Talent pegged at a 49% approval rating this July. The good news for Talent is that he is trending in the right direction.

In May, Talent's approval rating was 43%.
In June, Talent's approval rating was 48%.
He is getting closer to that magic 50 mark. Can he break through?

Going inside the numbers . . .

Talent is slightly stronger with males, polls best with seniors and worst with young people. He only has the approval of 70% of Republicans, which seems soft, yet only 62% of Democrats disapprove of him. That helps make Talent's case that he's bipartisan, works across the aisle, etc . . .

More good news . . . 52% of independents approve of Talent's work.

Among pro-lifers . . . 59% approve of Talent.
Among pro-choicers . . . 41% approve of Talent.
So his support looks soft, but so does his opposition there. I'm scratching my head here.

But Talent scores a 57% approval rating in the Ozarks this July. That's up 10 points in one month! A big jump! Was it the conservative base rallying to his vote against stem cells? Are they energized behind his opposition?

All in all, with where Republicans stand and the swirling national climate, not bad numbers for the Senator in July. Can he make them stick and continue to climb?

Will Sara Lampe Have A Race?

In reviewing Rep. Sara Lampe's campaign site, much of it is leftover from the 2004 campaign, with radio ads talking about "unifying the community," and her goals for education.

Lampe still has the link up to the election night results. It was a 53% to 47% win over Republican Larry Morris. She won by 1,037 votes.

Her legislative journals are detailed and talk much about the struggle of being in the minority. From her opposition to the voter I.D. bill to her fight for an amendment to help retired teachers, much of what Lampe wants just can't be done because of pure numbers. Lampe is a Democrat in the minority, but throughout her site she stresses unity and things that can be accomplished by working with the other side.

As a 37-year resident of the 138th district and a mother of three, the theme of unity and bipartisanship was the key to much of Lampe's success last time.

She has no primary opponent, but we expect the website will be updated once the general race begins. She will face with winner of the Republican primary between Steve Helms and Michael Goodart Jr.

One Republican told me privately, "Lampe's not a priority to beat because she's helped us on stuff and isn't an agitator. Sure, we'd love a Republican, but it's not a big deal if she remains there."

But another G.O.P. insider says Steve Helms will emerge to face Lampe and will give her a run for her money. "Steve Helms is no Larry Morris and that makes a big difference. Lampe is tough, but vulnerable."

How Richard Napieralski Would Live His Life As A Frog

A military man who has lived in the 137th legislative district for more than 10 years, Richard Napieralski is one of three Democrats vying for a chance to win back Rep. Mark Wright's old seat on Aug. 8th.

Napieralski's campaign site is a blog, with posts railing against City Utilities' John Twitty's influence as well as touting an endorsement from the National Education Association.

Napieralski's interests include photography, gardening, fishing and of course blogging. But why he's running for the Missouri House comes at the bottom of a page, from two posts made all the way back in April.

With a son suffering from diabetes, Napieralski favors the stem cell initiative as well as expanding health care access. He calls Governor Blunt's Medicaid cuts "a death sentence for thousands." That's a bit over the top, but Napieralski doesn't stop there.

Napieralski also supports raising the minimum wage and claims that many families in the 137th district with 2 working parents -- are still struggling.

Some of Napieralski's rhetoric may be harsh, but he's clearly engaged on issues impacting the district, from the coal power plant vote to voting precinct locations to statewide ballot initiatives.
Under his profile, Napieralski has a quirky question that I really don't get, but maybe I'm missing something. "The squish of mud between your toes; how would you live life as a frog?"

The answer: "As I do now, with a Princess."

But what does that mean? I don't always pick up on crafty symbolism, so I'm asking for help.

The more I hear from Democrats, the more I find they are divided on who would really be the best candidate to send on to November. Napieralski faces fellow donkeys Robert Brantley and Charlie Norr on Aug. 8th.

Ethics Charges Filed Against Mayor Collins

A Springfield attorney is filing ethics charges against Mayor Jim Collins, who is currently locked in a heated campaign for the 134th legislative district seat.

Attorney Richard Crites appeared at the city of Republic's meeting Monday to announce he is filing nepotism charges against Collins. Collins has submitted the complaint to Attorney General Jay Nixon. Crites says Collins' wife Linda should not be allowed to serve on the "Mayor's Commission for Children and the Republic Fine Arts Council in Republic."

Crites charges that the mayor's appointment of his wife to those jobs violates the nepotism prohibition in the Missouri Constitution. That clause reads:

"Any public officer or employee in this state who by virtue of his office or employment names or appoints to public office or employment any relative within the fourth degree, by consanguinity or affinity, shall thereby forfeit his office or employment."

When I asked Crites why he was moving forward with this charge, he said several residents had approached him about the topic and that the move was not politically motivated.


The Chattering Class on Stem Cells and Missouri

The talking heads in Washington are beginning to smell a hot race in Missouri and they are talking about it on national political talk shows.

The topic most appetizing - Stem cells and the Bush veto of federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

On The Chris Matthews Show, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius said the stem cell issue seems to be helping Claire McCaskill. "McCaskill seems to be making a lot of progress. This seems to be like the Terri Schiavo issue we saw earlier where the average voter looks at this and says this is about my health, this is about my parents, diseases that could be cured . . . that's the danger."

Still Ignatius pointed out, "It animates the base." Ignatius was referring to President Bush's base. But here, Bush's base is Talent's base.

NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell hinted it could help turnout among conservatives who believe the research destroys human life. "It has an impact. It's a way to energize Bush's base," Mitchell said of the veto. "That's the only conceivable reason to do this is to get people excited, the people that come out and vote about his position on this."

On PBS Washington Week, longtime political columnist David Broder, known as "The Dean" of politico writers, also talked about the stem cell issue in Missouri.

"Missouri is wide open already," Broder said. "The Republican Senator there has sort of flip-flopped and then finally come out against an initiative in the state. His Democratic challenger is saying, 'I'm all for it.' So this issue is clearly drawn in Missouri."

But Democrats tried to raise the stem cell issue in 2004 and in the end, it didn't seem to drive the concerns of voters. Will 2006 be the year of a stem cell signal or just more chatter about a supposed "wedge issue" . . . from the Chattering Class?

WSJ: Talent Up By 4 Points

More good news for Sen. Jim Talent from the Wall Street Journal . . .

The latest Zogby poll gives the junior Senator a 4-point edge over Democrat Claire McCaskill.

Talent 49%
McCaskill 45%

Despite violence in the Middle East, an ongoing war in Iraq, rising gas prices and a controversial position on stem cells, Talent has been able to maintain his lead in the Zogby poll.

The analysis: Just one percentage point separated the candidates in the initial months of Zogby polling, but Talent has maintained a lead of at least 3 points in each poll since January.
Still, his lead is within the margin of error.


Joe Pyles -- Can A Progressive Republican Win the 139th?

Joe Pyles, one of the three Republican candidates running in the 139th district, recently sent me an e-mail outlining some of his positions on some big issues facing Missouri.

Pyles says he'll vote for the stem cell initiative. Pyles says he favors increasing the minimum wage. Pyles also says he supports reforming the way license fee offices are being managed.

He says he's running "as the new face of the Republican Party" in the 139th. But will that new, more "progressive" or "moderate" face sell with G.O.P. primary voters?

Pyles on stem cells: "It does not increase spending, condone cloning or conflict with my pro-life beliefs. I know many people who suffer from seemingly incurable diseases. I cannot say no to these people."

Pyles on license bureaus: "We should not give out jobs in license bureaus as political rewards. License offices should be run at the lowest cost to Missourians. I do not think political appointed managers reach that goal."

Pyles on the minimum wage: "We have to protect wage earners from having the higher cost of gasoline passed on to them by reducing their wages and benefits. It is time to increase the minimum wage."

Pyles also points out that he did not move to the 139th district to run for the office and that he is not a "family legacy candidate."

Those are direct shots at his two G.O.P. opponents, Shane Schoeller and Karen Roark.

But when speaking to Republicans about this primary, the most common answer I get is . . . "I was afraid you'd ask me about that" or "don't ask me about the 139th."

One G.O.P. insider says Roark will win the seat. "Karen's a good organizer and is well-known. Shane could be pinned with the carpetbagger label," says the Republican.

This Republican says when Karen Roark announced she was running "it lifted some eyebrows," among party regulars, because Schoeller had expected to take over this seat because of his previous work for the G.O.P.

"He kind of had the rug pulled out from underneath him," says the strategist. "But because of the name and the organization, Karen will be tough to beat."

But Pyles - who some believe is running third in this field - wants us to believe he is in this race.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Meet the Candidates/Election Basics

The National Alliance on Mental Illness has 21 candidates showing up at a breakfast this Thursday July 27 at 8:00 am at the NAMI office at 1701 S. Campbell in Springfield.

The League of Women Voters is providing the usual resources for voters. Its Voters Guide includes bios and pictures of many candidates.

They also recently sat down with Greene County Clerk Richard Struckhoff, himself a candidate, to talk about the upcoming election.

Neatness counts in petition collection

From the A.P. Monday

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - A group backing ballot measures on eminent domain and govenment spending goes oh-for-two in court. A judge today ruled Secretary of State Robin Carnahan was right to reject the initiatives because some of their petition pages were not properly organized under state law.

State law requires petitions to be number sequentially by county.

Cole County Judge Richard Callahan also upheld Carnahan's additional reason for rejecting the eminent domain petition because it contained an old financial summary.

Both amendments were proposed for the November ballot by a called Missourians in Charge. It had asked Callahan to reverse Carnahan's decision.

Saturday, July 22, 2006

Loan Lenders: Talent vs. McCaskill

It's a debate about giving more financial freedom to the soldiers charged with defending our freedom . . . Missouri's two main U.S. Senate candidates are locked in a battle over how to best protect military families from predatory loans.

Senator Jim Talent is working on legislation that would limit interest rates charged to soldiers and their spouses for a loan. But his Democratic opponent Claire McCaskill says the plan doesn't go far enough.

This has a lot to do with those payday loan centers you see with flashing lights everywhere. Credit counselors say they've seen *some* charge interest rates ranging from 500 to 800 percent. Senator Talent wants to limit the rate to 36 percent for military personnel. Claire McCaskill says that's still too high.

Payday lending offices surround the military town of St. Robert, Mo. so that's where Senator Talent held a news conference today touting his proposed rate cap. While we made the trip, we unfortunately never got to catch up with the Senator because of an accident in a construction site on Interstate 44 that delayed us an hour and a half. No joke. We sat in traffic for 90 minutes. Such is life.

Fortunately, Consumer Credit Counseling's Landy Dixon, who supports Senator Talent's legislation, waited for us to explain the proposal. Understandably, the junior senator had to move on to tour storm damage in St. Louis.

Dixon says she has seen the payday shops charge rates in the triple-digits regularly. She says Talent's proposal of a flat federal rate of 36% is a good first step.

"I think Senator Talent wanting to do that is a good idea. I just think 36% interest is obscene," McCaskill told me in Louisburg Friday.

McCaskill says she opposes Talent's plan because the 36% rate is still too high. She says she supports restricting the ability of payday shops to offer long-term loans, but questions Talent's motivations.

"Senator Talent is looking after a specific company that has been a Republican contributor," McCaskill told me.

The company she is referring to is the Kansas City-based Pioneer Services, which specializes in military lending. According to the McCaskill camp, Pioneer is also a significant Republican campaign donor. Talent took $2000 from from a top level Pioneer executive, according to a McCaskill release.

McCaskill claims that Talent's legislation would stifle competition and drive soldiers to use the Pioneer group for loans. "This amendment was slipped into a bill and not debated," McCaskill spokeswoman Adrianne Marsh said. "This Pioneer company is the only company in the market to do loans for the military and a very hearty contributor to Sam Graves, the other sponsor. This is one way to protect their contributors," Marsh added.

The Talent camp calls those accusations pure politics.

"It's unfortunate Claire McCaskill is not supportive of Senator Talent's plan to stop predatory lending," campaign spokesman Rich Chrismer said. "Claire McCaskill isn't arguing against Jim Talent on this. She's arguing against every major consumer group that is supporting it. This bill has Democratic, bipartisan support. It's unfortunate she's trying to play politics."

"The payday lenders have also tried to discredit the legislation by suggesting it would help other financial institutions. And, like Claire McCaskill, they have tried to discredit lawmakers who are trying to stop these unscrupulous practices," Chrismer said.

Dixon credits Talent for taking an important first step in protecting military families who are financially vulnerable.

"When service members get in trouble financially, it moves their focus off the mission, now they have to worry about financial problems," Dixon said. "This is just legislation supporting not charging such high interest rates."

McCaskill says she supports a different House bill, which she says has more consumer protections.

"We're not against restricting payday lenders. We just want to make it fair. This bill allows one group to take advantage of the consumer, and eliminates competition," said Marsh.

Marsh also takes issue with the triple digit rates. "Those payday loans aren't intended to go the entire year, they are intended to be paid in the short term. Those short-term rates are averaged out, that's where they are getting those big numbers like 500 and 800 percent," Marsh said.

To which Chrismer responds, "The predatory lenders say there is no such thing as 800 percent APR. What they don't tell you is that they charge a fee for cashing paychecks that can be rolled over from paycheck to paycheck."

Senator Talent's campaign says most consumer groups support his bill and argue that this bill doesn't help any particular lender, but will stop payday lenders trying to take advantage of soldiers. They say McCaskill is just opposing it because he's her opponent.

By the way, Talent's bill has passed the Senate, but not the House yet.

Want more? Here's some links McCaskill's camp have included in their release:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=2207597
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/12/07/business/07military.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5088&en=6ce307a53f463076&ex=1260075600&partner=rssnyt
http://www.publicinterestwatch.org/press_6_30_05.htm

Here's more from Talent's side:
http://www.moaa.org/controller.asp?pagename=lac_update_060714
http://www.paydayloaninfo.org/state_detail.cfm?id=MO
http://talent.senate.gov/News/singleNews.cfm?NewsID=1715

Rep. Viebrock Declines Debate

Rep. Jim Viebrock has declined an invitation to participate in a primary debate to be conducted by KY3 News and broadcast exclusively on the web.

"To keep my integrity, I think I would decline," Viebrock told me.

Viebrock is in the middle of a heated primary battle in the #134 legislative district, which represents parts of western Springfield and Republic.

Viebrock's two Republican primary challengers, Mayor Jim Collins and longtime educator Bob Bilyeu both accepted invitations to a debate at our KY3 studio sometime before the Aug. 8 primary.

Viebrock said he didn't believe a debate would be a good thing for him to do. "All it's going to be is a slam fest for Jim Collins. All he is going to do is bash me. All it's going to be is a shout-fest," Viebrock said. "And Bob Bilyeu and I basically have the same the same platform, so that wouldn't be much to watch."

Viebrock said he would rather spend his time knocking on doors talking to real people than debating his opponents. "In that time I could hit 70 households," Viebrock said.

Another reason Viebrock gave for not wanting to debate is Bilyeu's experience. "Bob Bilyeu is a professional debater. That doesn't make it a level playing field." Viebrock added, "It wouldn't be wise to get in a debate with Bilyeu."

But when I pressed him about accepting our invitation, Viebrock said his main reason for declining was Collins. "I don't want to get drug into a fight about hearsay and accusations. It'll just get my blood pressure going."

Because we could not get all 3 candidates to agree to a debate, we will now try to offer them one-on-one interview forums that will be posted exclusively online.

The Sizzling #134 Primary . . . Viebrock vs. Collins vs. Bilyeu

With 50 comments and still growing, I felt it necessary to bring the sizzling debate over the #134 G.O.P. primary to the top of the page.

No blog entry has gotten more attention or sparked more emotion. It's democracy in action and I'm enjoying it and learning a lot.

It's Rep. Jim Viebrock vs. Mayor Jim Collins vs. Bob Bilyeu. Who will emerge?

Tonight, we asked each candidate if they would participate in a debate that would be taped in the KY3 studio and then broadcast only on our KY3 website.

We'll post their responses soon . . . Stay tuned!

Till then . . . have at it.

Friday, July 21, 2006

38% Approve of Governor Blunt

Governor Matt Blunt has lost a bit of ground in the July SurveyUSA tracking poll, which pegs his mid-summer approval rating at 38%.

The Governor lost 4 points in the last month. His 42% approval rating in June 2006 was his best mark since the 14-month tracking poll began measuring Blunt.

51 percent still approve of Blunt here in Southwest Missouri. In the July numbers, Blunt loses moderate respondents 57%-37%, a 6-point drop within the last month.

The most striking change comes in Central Missouri. Last month, 54% of respondents in central Missouri approved of Blunt. Now . . . that number has taken a sky dive, to just 39%.

A 15 point drop in Central Missouri in one month. That seems a bit much. What gives? A bad sample . . . or something more?

Thursday, July 20, 2006

Charlie Norr: "Champion of the Northside," and . . . Santa?

Charlie Norr appears to be the Democratic party's establishment candidate running in the 137th legislative district. Politicos on both sides have said Norr seems to have the backing of the party regulars.

Norr's campaign website is http://www.charlienorr.com/ . . . and after viewing Robert Brantley's page, you can see a difference in tone and presentation. It gives the Democratic primary voter an idea of the choice at hand on Aug. 8th.

Norr calls himself "The Champion of the Northside," although he didn't get there until 1995. Born in Baltimore, Norr moved to Missouri in 1990 and Springfield in 1995. He pledges to fight for more equity in education funding as well as be a voice for healthcare alternatives. A letter from supporters David and Vicky Trippe says they are supporting Norr partly because he believes the "Medicaid cuts were far too harsh."

The Trippe letter also says 2004 candidate Bill Sczepanski supports Norr. Compared to Brantley's site, Norr's is lighter and tamer.

But that seems to be the 62-year-old's style. I mean, Norr has pictures in his photo gallery which appear to be shots of him playing Santa. How do you campaign against Santa?

Norr faces Brantley and Richard Napieralski in the 3-way Democratic primary for a chance to win back Rep. Mark Wright's seat.

Bush's Missouri Approval Rating Stuck At 36%

SurveyUSA is out with its new July monthly tracking poll on President Bush.
But there isn't much new in the numbers.

The President's approval rating remains at 36%, the exact same number Bush scored in June.

The regional breakdown shows movement, possibly within the bases on both the left and right. Bush scores with 54% of respondents in the Ozarks, and just 27% of those polled in St. Louis. That means in one month, Bush gained 6 points in southwest Missouri but lost 5 points in St. Louis.

Good news for W in central Missouri . . . there, he is up 9 points.

For you Razorback fans, the President's Arkansas approval rating is 37%.

Robert Brantley: Not Taking It Anymore

Democrat Robert Brantley says he's running in the 137th district because "nobody who is currently elected represents me, my family, my friends or my neighbors."

So he's decided to try to do the job himself. When you click onto Brantley's campaign website, you are bombarded with information. He tops his page with 4 big issues - healthcare, the minimum wage, education and democracy.

He then makes the case that he can't trust government anymore on a host of issues. Robert Brantley is clearly fired up. In other words, he's mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore.

The middle of the page changes pictures every few seconds. It's a montage of Brantley with his kids, Brantley with his family, even Brantley shirtless. Now how many political candidates would post a picture of themselves shirtless?

Brantley says his race will be the "one of the most highly contested races in Southwest Missouri." He lists tons of different links on his page, from progressive sites, to recent stories about the war in Iraq, to other Democratic candidate websites. He's attempting to start a dialogue.

It's clear Brantley is liberal and proud of it. He has a detailed breakdown of past vote totals in the 137th, making the case that a Democrat can take back Rep. Mark Wright's seat.

In the most candid part of the site, he provides a link about his personal struggle to hold his family together. "My oldest son Derek Brantley is currently housed in a Juvenile Lock-Down Facility somewhere in Missouri. I am charged with Abuse," writes Brantley. His story is long and complicated, but he lays it out for you to decide.

Brantley clearly wants everything out in the open. He posts a lengthy resume, noting everything from his landscaping job in junior high to his overseas training for Operation Desert Storm.

Under "From the wires of Public Concern," and "Brantley in the news," the candidate has many different entries on subjects like his Memorial Day speech to veterans issues. Brantley is clearly passionate about the war and foreign policy.

But just by scanning this site, you can tell Brantley is passionate and emotional about most everything he talks about.

Brantley will face Charlie Norr and Richard Napieralski for the Democratic nomination on August 8th.

Talent's No Vote on Stem Cells

Senator Jim Talent voted against legislation that would expand federal funding of human embryonic stem cell research. Talent was in the minority, as the bill cleared both the House and Senate. But President Bush vetoed the bill today, making the case that destroying human embryos to extract the stem cells for scientific research purposes is morally wrong. It's the first veto of Bush's presidency and analysts say an override of the veto is unlikely.

Talent sided with Bush in a battle that some politicos feel could become a wedge issue for Democrats. The national press is already swirling with speculation . . . how will this mid-July vote impact Missouri's sizzling U.S. Senate race?

The Christian Science Monitor says "it could play big."
McClatchy Newspapers . . ."McCaskill bashes him on the issue at every stop . . ."
Capitol Hill Blue . . . "Talent could lose his seat over the issue . . ."
Salon.com . . . Trial attorney abandons Talent over the issue
Newsweek . . . A political test for Talent (Ok, I partially chose this one because I made the picture . . . look to the left of the shot)

Of the dozen or more different write-ups I read on the stem cell battle this week, Senator Talent, his position and his race against Claire McCaskill was mentioned in every one. But will the stem cell issue really drive votes away from Talent? Or will it invigorate the conservative base in the Ozarks and drive votes to him?

Monday, July 17, 2006

Following the Money: Links

Other entities are on the money trail:

Turner Report on Matt Blunt's fundraising

Chatter's been looking at the 7th Congressional Committee

Turner is also watching Sen. Gary Nodler

AP's got Talent v. McCaskill numbers

Following the Money: Springfield Democrats

Here's what Springfield Democrats (many of them uncontested in the August primary) did in the third quarter:

Christopher Brown (134th in southwest Greene County): raised $325, $225 of his own money and $100 from those who gave less than that. He's spent $270 at Republic Printing for voter cards.

Nancy Hagan (135th in south Springfield): raised $5,400 this quarter from generous donors who gave $200 or more as well as PACs like the Missouri NEA and some trade unions. She's dropped some serious coin too: $3,646.75 from April-June on door hangers, t-shirts, "design and logos," and postage.

James Owen (136th in central Springfield): He'll be challenging the winner of the B.J. Marsh/Bob Vanaman primary. He raised $4,743 April-June. Most of his contributions were $100 or more. He's raised $13,069 for the election so far. But spent half of it in the last three months: $7,142 including a computer, brochures, a campaign manager, and catering expenses.

Robert Brantley, Charlie Norr and Rich Napieralski (137th for Mark Wright's seat): Napieralski has nothing on record with the Ethics Commission. Norr's filings were not yet scanned as of this writing. Brantley reports he didn't do anthing to collect or spend more than $500.

Sara Lampe (138th): Ethics commission has not yet scanned her filings as of this writing.

Jamie Daniel Schoolcraft and Arthur Hodge Sr. (139th): Hodge reports little or no activity. Schoolcraft tells me his report has yet to be posted by the Ethics commission.

Tonya Cunningham (140th): She'll face Bob Dixon in November. She started the quarter with nothing. As of July 1, she has $460.82 on hand, but that doesn't reflect a busy quarter of fundraising. She collected $4,922.41 including $1,000 from the state party. She spent $3,179.18, mostly on signs.

ACLU sues over Voted ID law

From the AP Monday:

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - The American Civil Liberties Union says it is challenging the state law requiring people to show a certain photo ID to vote.
Governor Blunt signed the law about a month ago. The measure requires voters to show a photo I-D issued by Missouri or the federal government -- such as a driver's license -- to cast a
regular ballot. The requirement takes effect for the November election.
Those lacking such an ID this fall can cast a provisional ballot. It will count if election officials can verify their identity and they're in the right polling place.
The lawsuit is expected to be filed today in Cole County Circuit Court, the seat of state government. It claims the law violates a constitutional provision against imposing costs on local
governments without providing state funding.

Republicans quickly followed with a release. Here are the hilights from Paula Sloca, former AP newsman turned Republican Party spokesman:

“This lawsuit is an affront to the voters of Missouri who deserve to know that their vote won’t be cancelled out by a fraudulent vote on Election Day. This disgraceful abuse of the legal system is an insult to Missourians and a threat to free and fair elections,” said Paul Sloca, communications director for the Missouri Republican Party. “This orchestrated effort led by Democrat political bosses like Claire McCaskill, Jay Nixon and Robin Carnahan is an obvious attempt to protect the voter fraud their ilk has perpetuated for years.”

“Democrats are attacking our election system and Missouri voters are the ones bearing the burden of this frivolous and dangerous lawsuit that seeks to tear down our election system,” Sloca said.

The need for stronger anti-fraud legislation in Missouri is a necessity. Even McCaskill in 2004 had to report more than 24,000 questionable registrations in St. Louis City while in 2000 at least 1,500 fraudulent ballots were cast in the St. Louis area including 14 dead people and a dog. Last year, the Department of Justice sued Missouri for having some of the worst voter registration rolls in the nation and Carnahan acknowledged that the number of people on the voter registration rolls exceeded the voting age population in 29 Missouri jurisdictions.

FWIW, there's no mention here about who the state's top election official was from 2001-2005 or the fact that Republicans have controlled both chambers of the legislature since January 2003.

Following the Money: 136th Republican Primary

Incumbent B.J. Marsh (who got a gripe from GO magazine recently for his not-so-subtle signage at his home at National & Sunshine) kept his fundraising low-key in the last quarter: just $1,275 from April-June, none of whom live in his district. He already had $8,377.35 in the bank on April 1. He spent $5,024.19 on "marketing" and a repayment to the Missouri House Revolving Fund.

His challenger in the primary is former Springfield city councilman Bob Vanaman. He's also kept his fundraising low-key: $1,888.46 in the quarter from a handful of individuals. He spent $2,025 on at least one billboard on Kansas Expressway and $953.36 on postcards.

Following the Money: 139th Republican Primary

Quarterly reports are into the Missouri Ethics Commission. Here's the breakdown from the 139th Republican Primary in northern Greene County:

Karen Roark started with nothing on April 1st. She's loaned her campaign $15,000 and has raised $3,480 with lots of small contributions of $25 or $50. She still has most of this money in the bank, spending just $1,231.57 in the last three months, mainly on postage, office supplies and signage.

Joe Pyles also started the quarter with nothing. He's raised $6,575, with checks of at least $100 or more. His donor list includes former state senators John Russell and Morris Westfall and former congressman Wendell Bailey. He's spent $2,057.83 on mailings, postage to mail them, and a list of voters to send them to.

Finally, Shane Schoeller started with $2,764,69. He raised $7,560 in contributions and got a $4,000 loan from a relative. His donors are also generous, most checks are at least $200. A barbecue fundraiser in Willard in May with 50 people netted him $1,250. He's spent a lot of that too ($11,444.33 in the last three months). Thompson Communications, the Payroll compnay and the usual postage/flyers took up the bulk of his expenditures.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Hillary Clinton Stumps in Arkansas, Calls on Democrats To Seize The Middle, Says Claire's Running A Great Race

New York Senator Hillary Clinton visited northwest Arkansas Saturday, rallying Democrats to seize the moderate middle this election year.

"We have wonderful differences in America which is one of the reasons why we are such a unique place, but we also have a lot of common ground nobody is talking about," Clinton told the Arkansas Democratic Women's Convention. "We should seize that common ground as Democrats."

Click here to watch our KY3 News coverage on Clinton's visit.

Clinton was greeted with red signs reading "Madam President, January 20, 2009." Clinton peppered her speech in Rogers, Arkansas with lots of old history. She first visited Benton County 32 years ago when she came to Arkansas to help Bill Clinton campaign for Congress.

Arkansas Dems paid $100-a-plate for the luncheon and some spent $500 a pop for a special meet and greet session with the Senator. Democrats estimate they pulled in about $100,000.

After reminiscing about the good old days, Clinton served up some red meat for the eager crowd. The former First Lady said that while the economy is working for some folks, many middle class folks are not seeing it in their wages.

"Profits have gone up, productivity has gone up but where's the income raise for the average working American who's working 40 hours a week, 52 weeks a year," Clinton said to a rousing ovation.

Clinton spoke at length about her efforts to raise the federal minimum wage. "This is a values issue. We hear lots about values issues, well what about the value of hard work, rewarding hard work, giving people who work taking care of our children, taking care of our elderly, taking the hard jobs in society, what about them?" Clinton said she introduced legislation that "says no more pay raises for Congress until we raise the minimum wage." That line got a huge standing ovation . . . probably her biggest applause line of the day.

Trying to sound like a populist on economic policy, Clinton also targeted last year's energy bill. We've heard a lot about the energy bill in Missouri's Senate race. Sen. Talent voted for it because he says it created incentives for renewable fuels. Claire McCaskill said she would've voted against it because of tax breaks for oil companies. Clinton is with Claire, also against it.

"You know with oil $76, $77 dollars a barrel, the oil companies do not need a subsidy to go out an explore," Clinton said. "We need to take those subsidies away from the oil companies and we need to tax their excess profits and put them in a strategic energy fund."

If Democrats win back the Congress in the fall, Clinton also promised a return to the issue of health care. She admitted she made mistakes in the past, but wants to pass legislation that would create electronic medical records. She contends e-records would increase the quality of care and lower costs by $100 to $200 billion dollars a year.

On education, Clinton lambasted the Bush administration for cuts to Head Start and other pre-school programs, called No Child Left Behind an unfunded mandate and said more students aren't finishing college now than ever before because it costs too much to earn a degree.

She then turned to foreign policy, a touchy area for Clinton. In fact, there were protestors outside her speech in Rogers -- but they were protestors from the LEFT. They held signs criticizing Clinton for her support of the Iraq war and called her "a closet Republican."

Inside, her only words on Iraq were these: "No matter how one thinks about the beginning of it, there is no doubt it has been horribly mishandled." Clinton, instead, focused on building international alliances. "We need to use military power as a last resort, not a first resort," Clinton said in her delicate balancing act between supporting the war, while criticizing the strategy being used to fight it.

Throughout her speech, Clinton sprinkled in many references to "the middle ground" and "bipartisan efforts." She said fair-minded Republicans are ready for a change and are willing to vote for Democrats this year.

Why? Clinton lists 4 items that she says are turning away Republican voters from the G.O.P.

1) The deficit
2) Effort to privatize Social Security
3) War in Iraq weariness
4) Response to Hurricane Katrina

After her speech, Clinton signed tons of autographs and took many pictures. We then followed her to Fayetteville where she toured the public library and met with children. She ended her day at the Clinton museum in Fayetteville, the home she married Bill Clinton in years ago. There, she watched old campaign videos and commercials at what's now a museum of Bill Clinton's political career.

Clinton's press people run a tight ship. They didn't promise us anything but did get a us a few moments (they were quick moments) with the Senator.

When we asked her about Claire McCaskill she said "I think she's running a great race."
Why? "I'll let her run her own campaign, she's doing a fine job at it," Clinton replied.
When I went in for a third question, Clinton's press secretary cut me off and gave another reporter a shot. Fair enough.

Other questions were mostly from local reporters about what it was like to be back in Northwest Arkansas. I find it pointless, almost a waste of time to ask her about the presidency. She ain't gonna tell some local reporter in July 2006. She's only asked that question 3 times an hour. On policy, Clinton was asked about Israel's military response in Lebanon, where her hawkish wings showed once again. "I think Israel has the right to defend itself, and I fully support them," Clinton said.

As "her people" took her away, I tried one more time. "Will you come to Missouri to campaign for Claire McCaskill?," I asked. "I've got my own campaign to worry about," Clinton replied, hurrying over to sign more autographs and take more pictures.

Whether you love or hate her -- or are indifferent (that's impossible!) -- it was fun and exciting covering Hillary Clinton. She's controversial, polarizing, fascinating and thought-provoking all at the same time. I mean, friends of mine who have no interest in politics at all, were asking me about her. Everyone's curious. "Is she nice?" "Does she look mean?" "How does she look in person?"

Even to the simple-minded, she's a political rockstar.

And well, she could be our next president. Or maybe just a really powerful Senator for a long, long time.

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Rep. Lampe's Mixed Feelings on a Special Session

Southwest Missouri's lone Democratic Rep. Sara Lampe has mixed feelings about returning for a possible special session this fall to address Medicaid issues and you can hear it in her voice.

"This reminds me of a student that didn't get his project in on time. He doesn't do the work during class all year and now comes the end of the semester and he wants extra credit." That's how Lampe is describing Governor Blunt's proposal to call a special session.

Lampe supports restoring cuts to a program for the working disabled, but she says the Governor should have taken care of Medicaid fraud within a regular legislative session.

"Didn't he tell us he was going to do the waste, fraud and abuse 2 years ago," Lampe asked. "Why didn't he do it last year?"

When I pointed out to Lampe that legislators had failed to reach an agreement on a Medicaid fraud bill, she said the Governor had the power to make substantial changes it if he wanted to. "That seems like more of a thing that involves the Governor's agencies than anything we can pass legislatively anyway," Lampe said.

"I'm ticked off that we're rushing around trying to do this now and the Democrats are being the adults in the situation and trying to do what he didn't do," Lampe said. "Democrats are having to be the parents." Democrats are circulating a petition to force a special session without the Governor's permission. Lampe said she supports it, but questions the Governor's own special session motives.

A school teacher, Lampe used another education analogy. "Now that the grades are due, everybody's in a panic to get something done, so it's going to cost the state more money. If it wasn't an election year, would we have to wait 4 years to undo what we did and help the disabled?"

Friday, July 14, 2006

Cardetti Says Revenue Official Lied About Harpool

The communication's director for the state Democratic party says a Department of Revenue official was just dead wrong when she stated that State Senate candidate Doug Harpool was a lawmaker in 1994.

"Doug Harpool served in the legislature from 1983 to 1992. He was out of office when Governor Carnahan came into office," said Jack Cardetti, the spokesman for the Missouri Democratic party.

The official was taking aim at Harpool for coming out for a fee license office reform plan now that a Republican controls the appointments. The official was trying to make the point that Harpool didn't push for the change when a Democratic Governor had power.

"Mr. Harpool was a state representative from 1984 to 1994, a time when the Governorship of Missouri was switched from Republican to Democratic hands. To Harpool's statement . . . Is that what you said in 1993 when Governor Carnahan was turning the contract offices over to his Democratic friends," asked the official. "At that time, how did you advocate awarding these contracts to school districts?"

But in fact, Harpool wasn't a lawmaker at the time the official alleged.

"It's hard to believe the Blunt administration would be spreading lies in an attempt to stall much needed reforms to fee offices," Cardetti said. "Doug Harpool show us he's not afraid to reform a corrupt system that doesn't work for the benefit of Missouri citizens."

"Whether they were misstating it on purpose or it was by accident, it doesn't take away the need for reform. And Doug Harpool is the only candidate in the Senate race willing to stand up to the Governor," Cardetti said.

Cardetti also said the party considers Harpools challenge to Springfield Senator Norma Champion "a top tier race." "We believe she's vulnerable. She hasn't done a lot to distinguish herself," Cardetti said. "It would really change the political landscape in Southwest Missouri. Overtaking the state senate seat in Greene County would be groundbreaking."

The Architect: Dan Scott

In my ongoing effort to profile the campaign websites of all local legislative candidates, I turn my attention to the #137 legislative district, where 5 candidates are running for Rep. Mark Wright's open seat.

Dan Scott is considered the favorite to win the G.O.P. nomination . . .http://electdanscott.com/

Scott wastes no time in letting you know he was raised in the district, educated in the district, works in the district, has roots in the district . . . You get the point?

Scott is an architect and businessman that takes credit for helping revitalize downtown. The campaign site is filled with lots of history about his family ties and old photos. Did you know Dan graduated in the top 5% of his Central High School class?

On one page labeled "What Others Are Saying," he lists a bunch of comments that aren't necessarily endorsements. Rep. Wright calls him "a viable candidate" on the site. But Wright has told me the Democrats have a legitimate shot at picking this seat up. Springfield city council member Gary Deaver says, "Typically I have supported Democratic candidates, but not exclusively." Hmmm, what does that mean?

Scott won some recent media attention from an effort he helped organize to raise money for pool passes for kids who can't afford it. It's a noble cause, and there's more information on his site.

Nonetheless, there's no mention of issues here . . . the meat and potato stuff.

But one Republican strategist predicts Scott will emerge from the primary victorious and ultimately face Democrat Richard Napieralski in November.

"It's a Democratic district," says the G.O.P. worker. "But if Dan Scott can win, it will be one of the big stories election night for the G.O.P. in Greene County."

Hillary Clinton In Arkansas Saturday, KY3 Plans Coverage

New York Senator and potential presidential candidate Hillary Clinton will speak in Rogers, Arkansas tomorrow at 12:30 p.m. and we plan to be there to cover it.

Senator Clinton will be the featured speaker at the 71st State Convention of the Arkansas Federation of Democratic Women at the Embassy Suites in Rogers.

Here are some local write-ups previewing her visit:

http://www.todaysthv.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=31300
http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2006/06/27/News/336709.html
http://nwanews.com/bcdr/News/37251/

We've requested some time with the Senator through her office, but it's unclear whether we'll get it or if she's even doing a press conference after her speech.

Tune in to KY3 News Saturday for my full report.

Champion, Dixon Support Special Session But Disagree on Medicaid Fraud Bill; Wright Says Blunt Now In A Box

Senator Norma Champion said today she would support a special legislative session for Medicaid if lawmakers can agree on a comprehensive bill that includes both fraud prevention and a revival of the MAWD program for the working disabled.

"If we don't have to get into a lengthy debate to waste taxpayers money, I think we should do it," Champion told me today.

Champion basically put the burden on the House leadership. "The Senate passed a fraud bill. I think if we can come up with something fast that they can agree on, it might be a good idea," Champion said.

"The Governor won't call it unless he feels it will be done very efficiently. We don't want to waste time up there, but it's his decision," Champion added.

Rep. Bob Dixon put out a press release earlier this week supporting the Governor's call for a special session. "I was an early advocate for restoring effective and sustainable Ticket to Work Program so the working disabled may receive help with the cost of their medical care. We should continue reasonable efforts to eliminate Medicaid fraud," said Dixon in his statement.

The devil is in the details. Even Dixon admits his statement was specifically crafted language. He says the deal will come down to the details in the fraud portion of the bill.

Dixon called the provider fraud bill, which Champion voted for, "Draconian." He said the bill that passed the Senate could end up hurting access to healthcare by running providers out of business.

"The problem with the Senate bill is, you cannot say a mistake in paperwork is always fraud, and then have a provider lose their license or throw them in jail for that," Dixon told me. "There's cases I'm sure where that's appropriate, but I think it opens up litigation, and is the undoing of our reform bill on junk lawsuits."

"I do not support putting a doctor or a nurse in jail if they make a mistake on a Medicaid form," Dixon added.

Rep. Mark Wright agrees that the Senate version of the fraud bill is too tough on providers. "The initial version is so extreme, so punitive toward providers, a lot of health care providers were upset with it," Wright said. Wright said the Senate wasn't willing to compromise on its version.

"Some of the penalties on providers were tougher than those we have against sex offenders and predators," Wright said. "Obviously the Governor supports the Senate version, I just don't think that version will pass."

While Rep. Dixon wouldn't predict the chances of an agreement on the fraud portion to trigger a session, Rep. Wright said the "Governor has now put himself in a box."

"I think the special session is going to have to happen now. People won't let him get away with it. He's getting a lot of heat to do it, and now with what he said, I don't see how he gets out of it," Wright said.

Special Session Reaction: What Your Lawmakers Think

Governor Blunt's set conditions for a special legislative session for Medicaid isn't only a smart political tactic, it's a surprising move in an election year. So where do your local lawmakers stand? I attempted to contact each one of them for their reaction. This is what I found.

Rep. B.J. Marsh (#136)
Marsh points out he was against the Medicaid cuts to start with and isn't sure about a special session. "I haven't heard his plan," Marsh told me. "So I really don't have a position yet." Marsh says he questions why the Governor is changing his position now. "Why didn't we do anything during the regular session,?" Marsh says. "I'm the only one who didn't vote for all the cuts on the Republican side. I said all along, these went too far." But Marsh says he's got a lot of paraplegic people in his district and he's hearing from them. "I know people are not happy about it and that's telling," Marsh says. Marsh also says he's not surprised he didn't know much about the special session debate. "I don't seem to be able to get the Governor's attention on things. He certainly doesn't come to me for advice. He's not always on the same page I'm on."

Rep. Charlie Denison (#135)
Denison said he hadn't seen what the Governor said about the special session. "I hadn't seen that, so I'm not ready to take a position," Denison told me. "It's kind of a surprise so I'd want to take a look at it first."

Rep. Jim Viebrock (#134)
Viebrock also said he hadn't seen the Governor's statement yet, but noted his general feeling was to be against special sessions unless they contain an "emergency clause" or deal with an issue of "great consequence." "You're talking about close to a million dollars of taxpayers money, for something that could be done in January when we get back," Viebrock said. Viebrock says he's spent a lot of times looking at services impacted by the cuts. "You hear horror stories, but sometimes I question all the details." Viebrock says many people he's spoken to that were afraid they were going to be affected by the changes, turned out now to be. "Most people I've talked to have been pretty pleased after it all shook out. People were definitely nervous about it at first, but one man even confessed to me that his net income was more after the changes. But there's a lot of politics in it all."

Rep. Mark Wright (#137)
SEE ABOVE ENTRY

Rep. Brad Roark (#139)
Hasn't yet responded to my call.

Rep. Sara Lampe (#138)
Hasn't yet responded to my call.

Rep. Bob Dixon (#140)
SEE ABOVE ENTRY

Sen. Norma Champion
SEE ABOVE ENTRY



Republic Official Says #134 Is Between Viebrock and Bilyeu

A Republic city official says the G.O.P. primary race for state legislature in the #134 district will come down to Rep. Jim Viebrock and longtime educator Bob Bilyeu.

The government official says the other Republican contender, Mayor Jim Collins has acted like "a dictator," as leader of the city. "He downgrades fellow aldermen because they ask questions," says the official. "Collins is not a moderate," he says. "The mayor keeps shooting himself in the foot."

Yet the official, who has knowledge of the inner workings of the city government, says the Republican primary race will be close because Bilyeu is a good candidate. "He is a great man, even though I won't vote for him," says the official who is a Viebrock supporter.

"The thing about Jim is, people don't always agree with him, but he's always honest with you," says the official.

"Everyone's talking about who's going to fill Mark Wright's seat, but it's going to be nothing like this race. It's going to be highly contested, right until the end between Viebrock and Bilyeu. It's going to be very close," says the official.

New Momentum For Special Session

There's new momentum for a special legislative session this week to reinstate some Medicaid cuts. In a reversal of opinion, Governor Matt Blunt now says he will call a special session this fall to address some cuts if lawmakers also agree to pass a bill to crackdown on fraud in the system.

Watch the full story that aired on KY3 Thursday night.

A full month after Governor Blunt said he had no plans of calling a special session for anything, he's now changed his mind. But there's a catch. He says he'll support reviving a program for the working disabled, if he also gets a comprehensive bill that helps eliminate waste, fraud and abuse.

Last session, the state House passed a bill restoring some cuts and the state Senate passed a bill cracking down on fraud by Medicaid providers. But a standoff between the two chambers over details created a stalemate.

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Governor Blunt Opposes Wright's Plan

Governor Matt Blunt today said he is opposed to Rep. Mark Wright's plan to reform the way fee license offices are run.

Blunt was, well . . . blunt. When I asked the Governor if he supported Wright's plan, he gave me a flat-out "No." Like I said, he was blunt.

Blunt said he may consider different components of it, but not the package as a whole. "How long you wait in line shouldn't impact if you pay a fee or not," Blunt said. Wright has proposed to eliminate fees for people that wait more than 30 minutes in line. Publicly and privately, members of both parties have downplayed the chances of that part ever becoming law.

Blunt said he has real issues with mandating non-for-profits running the offices. Right now, he said about a quarter of the offices are already run by non-profits. "Many do good jobs, some don't do as good a job," Blunt said. The Governor also said the awarding of contracts should be based on who will provide the best service. "Sometimes that's the non-for-profit, sometimes not."

Blunt also said he has already taken steps to reform the system, by increasing the accessibility and hours of service, right here in Greene County.

Dept of Revenue: Wright Uninformed, Where Was Harpool Before?

The director of the State department of Revenue says Rep. Mark Wright's license office reform plan is "incomplete and uninformed."

Director Trish Vincent says Governor Blunt has already enacted several measures to improve the way the system is run. "For the first time in history, agents submit business plans, pay for all postage, and lose their processing fee if they accept a bad check," Vincent says. "We are also competitively bidding a contract office for the first time in history."

Vincent takes Rep. Wright's plan to task, saying his ideas would hamper efficiency and customer service. "We want the agent who can best provide it," Vincent says. "In some cases that may be a non-profit, in others, business people with proven customer experience." Vincent says mandating non-profits to run the offices isn't practical. Choice is best, so says the director.

She also says the proposal calls for the state to take on massive obligation from counties with no plan to pay for it.

One part of Wright's plan would eliminate a fee if a customer waits for more than 30 minutes in line at an office. Democratic state senate candidate Doug Harpool, who supports much of Wright's plan, calls that a gimmick. The Department of Revenue says "eliminating taxes and fees that go to build roads and provide other services is not the answer."

An official with the Department of Revenue also takes aim at Harpool. Harpool had told KY3 that if he'd been a Senator, he would have stood up and demanded that the Governor award this contract to the local school system.

"Mr. Harpool was a state representative from 1984 to 1994, a time when the Governorship of Missouri was switched from Republican to Democratic hands. To Harpool's statement . . . Is that what you said in 1993 when Governor Carnahan was turning the contract offices over to his Democratic friends," asked the official. "At that time, how did you advocate awarding these contracts to school districts?"

The Dessert: Wright Gets Miffed, Then Apologizes

Rep. Mark Wright wasn't happy that Democratic state Senate candidate Doug Harpool attended his press conference on license office reform Monday. And as soon as Wright walked in the room, you could tell.

"Did you bring Mr. Harpool with you?," Wright playfully asked me as he walked by. I thought that was that. After the press conference and after our interview with Harpool, Wright came up to me and asked why I was interviewing Harpool for the story. Wright cited comments on this blog to say that this writer obviously has a "perception problem," and favors Harpool and his policies. Wright noted that while "other stations" chose to interview an elected Democrat for their last story on the license fee proposal, I interviewed Harpool.

He was accusing me of bias. I was defending my integrity.

As I vigorously defended my dedication to being honest and fair in every story I pursue, Wright and I jousted for awhile about how to put together this story. "You could've interviewed Sara Lampe. She's elected. She's got more credibility than him," Wright said, referring to Harpool. I explained that I try to interview a variety of people from both parties on most stories. With limited time, it's impossible to include every possible side. For this story, I had interviewed Wright, a Republican, Harpool, a Democrat, a contractor who runs a fee office and a spokeswoman for the Department of Revenue. I was attempting to demonstrate my fairness. I also said it is important to interview candidates running for these offices to inform the public what their stances are. I feel it is just as important to hold challengers of both parties accountable for positions as it is to hold incumbents responsible for past votes.

The intense, but mostly friendly confrontation ended with a handshake, saying we'd agree to disagree on the content of my stories.

A few hours later, I received something that is very rare from any politician of either side: An apology. Rep. Wright called to tell me he was sorry for questioning my judgment. "I got a little testy and my nerves were rattled from a long day," Wright said.

He said he was concerned that Harpool would be "a major part of my story," and that he was more upset at Harpool than me. "I would personally never ever show up to a press conference I hadn't been invited to beforehand," Wright said. "I wouldn't do it if I was a Republican or Democrat. I wouldn't even think of it."

Wright said it was wrong for Harpool to attend out of simple respect. "If he wants to advocate for his position, fine. I'd appreciate if he not advance his plan or impose his views on our issue. But I understand, politics is politics," Wright said.

The Meat & Potatoes: Rep. Wright Unveils Fee Office Reforms

Rep. Mark Wright unveiled a plan to change the way driver's license fee offices are awarded and where the profits go at a press conference in Springfield Monday. It came two weeks after the original announcement was postponed at the request of the Governor.

Under Wright's plan, non-profits would have to run the state's 183 license offices, with the profits going to an entity that benefits the entire community, no employee could make more than $100,000 a year and the state auditor would have more oversight of all the money being made.

"I think that's very important that we know how much these offices are generating and where the money is going to," Wright said.

Wright said his plan would end a tainted system that rewards political favors. Governor Blunt has given the offices to some of his political friends and campaign contributors. Democratic Governors of the past have done the same thing. Wright said it's wrong on both sides.

The key to Wright's plan: Local schools, health clinics, veteran groups or other organizations would receive the profits from these offices -- and not private contractors.

"That money comes back to Missouri citizens and to the community and we erase that public perception problem of this political cronyism and political patronage," Wright said. Currently, 37 offices statewide are run by non-profit groups, according to Wright.

But one contractor who runs a Neosho fee office said he attended the press conference to defend the job the current contractors are doing. David Jerome said he received the office to run because he did good work for the Republican party, but also because he runs a good office.

"I want to represent the Republican party in a very positive way by running the best office that I can in my community," Jerome told me. Jerome also said that many of these offices are not as lucrative as they are being portrayed.

"There's more expenses under this administration than previous, so contract agents have to pay more of their own expenses than they did before," Jerome said. "Oh, by the way, fees haven't increased since 1998, but we're being asked to assume more of the cost in operating the offices."

Jerome said he didn't have a position on Wright's reforms. He said he would leave it up to the Governor.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Revenue said contract agents are under attack and being "portrayed negatively" for no good reason. "I think that contract agents here today got a bad rap," said Maura Browning. "They do a good job."

Browning also said Wright's plan may not work because it's not practical. "I think that in some parts of the state you might have a problem in finding a non-profit. I think you'll run into problems. You're assuming that non-profits will want to run these offices and if they don't, that local government will," Browning said.

Springfield Democratic State Senate candidate Doug Harpool also attended the press conference because he said he wanted to hear Wright's ideas on the plan. Harpool had previously come out with his own fee office reform plan. Harpool doesn't go as far as mandating the offices be given to non-profits, but he agreed that they should get preference.

Harpool agreed with most of Wright's plan and said giving the state auditor more power to delve into profit margins would be an important step. "Right not the people oughta know what type of profit margin these offices are garnering," Harpool said.

The Department of Revenue said the contractors do not have to publicly disclose their profits. Harpool said the state has an interest in knowing the margin because if the offices are making an 80% profit margin, lawmakers may want to reduce fees so they only have a 40% or 30% margin.

"The only reason the Department of Revenue doesn't know the margins, is because they haven't asked," Harpool said.

While embracing most of Wright's plan, Harpool questioned the timing of the plan and said Democrats unveiled similar reforms in the past two years. "The idea and concept of the Democratic bills that have not even received a hearing or serious consideration by Republican leadership are almost identical to what now in an election year these Republican legislators have decided would be a good idea," Harpool said.

Wright said he wants to hear ideas from constituents on his proposal. He said he has not yet spoken directly with the Governor on the plan, but hopes to schedule a meeting soon.

(Sorry for the posting delay, I've been off and my Internet at home has been down . . . More on Fee Offices to come . . .)

Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Dems to pay for 2002 campaign violations

From the AP Tuesday:

For the second time in less than one year, the Missouri Democratic Party has agreed to pay a fine to settle charges that it violated federal campaign finance laws.

The party agreed to pay $20,000 for violations that occurred during the 2002 election. Last year, the party paid a separate $110,000 fine to resolve similar charges from the 2000 election.

The Federal Election Commission says the party received more than $188,000 dollars in excessive contributions.

The party also accepted anonymous cash donations that exceeded the federal limit and failed to keep proper records of its disbursements.

Party spokesman Jack Cardetti admits the problem was shoddy record keeping. He says the party now has a full time accountant and a compliance consultant.

Sunday, July 09, 2006

Inside That $14 Billion

Was the 2005 energy bill really a big giveaway to big oil?

Senator Jim Talent's campaign says Claire McCaskill continues to falsely charge that the energy bill contained "a 14 billion dollar handout to big oil."

"Let me tell you, I'm not ashamed of being against the energy bill," McCaskill said Friday in Willard. "I'm proud to say I would've voted against the bill," she added, citing a $14 billion dollar tax break for oil companies.

"McCaskill's assertion is just not true," says Rich Chrismer, Talent's campaign spokesman. Chrismer sent me a pie chart from the House Ways and Means Committee outlining the tax incentives included in the energy bill.

The tax package includes $14.5 billion dollars to improve energy production, transportation and efficiency, according to the chart. Here's the breakdown:

*$3.1 billion for electricity reliability
*$2.9 billion for clean coal
*$2.9 billion for renewable and clean energy incentives
*$2.7 billion for energy efficiency and conservation measures
*$2.6 billion for oil and gas production and enhanced refining

"The energy bill contained tax incentives for energy production of all kinds," Chrismer says. "Incentives for oil production represented the smallest portion of a larger tax package in the energy bill."

Chrismer points out that just $2.6 billion dollars of the tax breaks go to oil and gas production. "If she wants to say the 2 point 6 billion dollar number, that's fine, but it's not 14 billion," Chrismer says.

Chrismer also says that Talent fought the oil companies to get the renewable fuels standard included. "The oil companies strongly opposed his legislation and they lost," Chrismer says.

The Talent campaign's point is that yes, the tax breaks total $14 billion - but most of it goes to clean and renewable efforts that McCaskill shouldn't be against.

An Emerging Gender Gap?

Is there a gender gap in Missouri's U.S. Senate race?

Senator Talent was in Springfield Saturday to tout his Women for Talent coalition. His campaign said they have about 1,000 female volunteers signed up across the state to rally troops for the election. About 150 people, mostly women, attended Springfield's event at Bass Pro. Springfield state senator Norma Champion and Talent's wife Brenda, introduced the junior senator for his speech.

"It's important to outreach to them," Talent told me. "After all, they are half the voters."

The June 2006 St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll done by Research 2000 shows Talent trailing Democrat Claire McCaskill among women voters.

The survey of 800 likely voters shows that while Talent and McCaskill basically split the men's vote . . . McCaskill holds a 13-point lead among women, 52% to 39%.

But the June SurveyUSA tracking poll found that Talent actually had a slightly better approval rating among women (49%) than men (46%).

Talent said he couldn't remember whether he won women against Jean Carnahan, but said he probably didn't. "If I had, we would've probably won by more," Talent said.

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Harpool Calls For Special Session

Greene County's Democratic State Senate candidate is calling for a special legislative session this fall to reinstate a Medicaid program for the working disabled.

Doug Harpool calls the elimination of MAWD (Medical Assistance for the Working Disabled) a mistake, and lambastes Republican Senator Norma Champion for refusing to take a position on the issue.

"It's pitiful that the Senator can't speak - or think - until she receives her orders from her party's leaders," Harpool said in the release.

Champion has said she is not sure whether a special session is necessary.

Harpool said some lawmakers are circulating a petition to call a special session in September without the approval of the Governor. It is unclear how many lawmakers have signed the petition or have even been asked to sign it. Harpool says if he was Senator, he would sign it, because the nearly 18,000 disabled Missourians cannot "wait until next year for this error to be corrected."

License Office Reform Tour Back On

Almost two weeks after a group of Republicans lawmakers postponed a statewide tour to unveil a plan to reform the way license fee offices are awarded, Rep. Ryan Silvey announced the tour was back on.

The plan is expected to be unveiled Monday in Missouri's three largest cities, beginning in Kansas City and ending in Springfield at 2:30 p.m. at the Library Station on Kansas Expressway.
The release, sent out by Rep. Silvey's office Friday afternoon, blares: "Postponed Press Conferences Rescheduled . . . Members of the Missouri House of Representatives will hold press conferences announcing a major fee office reform plan."

No further details were revealed.

P-D Poll Makes McCaskill Nervous

Because you asked . . .

One of our readers recently requested me to ask Claire McCaskill what she thought of the recent Zogby poll (published by the Wall Street Journal) that has her trailing Sen. Jim Talent by 5 points, 49%-44%.

That poll conflicts with a recent Research 2000 poll published by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, which puts McCaskill up by 6 points, 49%-43%.

So we asked Claire, which one is right?

"I have no idea and frankly, this St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll made me nervous," McCaskill replied. "I'm used to being the underdog. I'm not really comfortable being that far ahead, this far out."

One thing McCaskill does predict: "I know . . . the election will be close."

McCaskill told me last fall she'd win by 2 points.

What will settle this polling standoff? Johncombest.com is reporting that a Rasmussen poll to be released Monday will show the race deadlocked at 42%.

So much for settling it.

You Were Against Ethanol . . . Before You Were For It

First it was Illegal Immigration.
Then Iraq.
The latest . . . Ethanol.

Claire McCaskill said those are three issues that Senator Talent's campaign and the Missouri Republican Party are trying to mislead voters on. "I've never seen this before," McCaskill said in Willard Friday. "I'm not used to making up what my opponent's stand is. That's occurring in this campaign."

On this blog, we've outlined the alleged distortions over the illegal immigration debate.

On Friday, the Missouri G.O.P sent out a press release blaring that McCaskill was calling for immediate withdrawal from Iraq. "McCaskill's campaign told the Associated Press yesterday that McCaskill believes it's 'time to allow the Iraqi people to govern themselves and to redeploy troops for other security interests in the region,'" the release claimed. McCaskill's camp was quick to say there was no change in her position.

"I never said I was for immediate redeployment," McCaskill said in Willard. "They just made it up . . . just made it up."

As McCaskill toured the state with her farm plan, the Missouri G.O.P. slammed her with this headline: "McCaskill Fails Missouri Farmers, Ranchers By Opposing Energy Bill and Renewable Fuels"

Republican communication director Paul Sloca included a 2004 interview with Missourinet, which he says proves McCaskill was opposed to ethanol standards.

"I am uncomfortable at this point mandating an ethanol additive for all Missouri fuel because I think in the long run it's not going to help the farmers as much as the big corporate groups that are the middlemen in these deals," McCaskill said in transcripts of the interview, according to Sloca.

McCaskill has always said she would have voted against last year's energy bill because she says it gave away $14 billion dollars in tax cuts to oil companies at a time corporate profits were setting records and gas was approaching 3-bucks a gallon. "Let me tell you, I'm not ashamed of being against the energy bill," McCaskill said. "I'm proud to say I would've voted against the bill. Did I support the ethanol provisions in the bill? Of course I did."

McCaskill put the 2005 energy bill this way: "The bill gave the oil companies a steak dinner and the ethanol companies the saltine crackers.

And by Friday afternoon, the Missouri Democratic Party had dug up its own dirt on ethanol, blasting this release out to reporters: "Talent Opposed Key Ethanol Measures as St. Louis Representative, Now Belatedly Jumps on Ethanol Bandwagon"

The release targets two specific votes by Talent in 1988 and 1990. Democrats claim that in 1988, as a state lawmaker, Talent voted against a reduction in taxes on gas containing ethanol. Then-representative McCaskill voted for the measure.

Two years later, McCaskill said Talent helped Governor John Ashcroft sustain a veto of Democratic legislation that would have devoted about $126,000 to jump start one of Missouri's first ethanol programs.

You can see the ad-making now . . . My opponent was against ethanol before he/she was for it, before she/he was against it!