Notable Filings

Again, no real surprises on the first day of filing, but here are some notable items and other things to keep your eye on:

• A Springfieldian has entered the Lieutenant Governor's race. Libertarian Teddy Fleck has filed in a race that features incumbent Peter Kinder and Democratic challenger Sam Page. Looks like this is Fleck's website. In 2000, Fleck ran for State House in the #138th district. Fleck opposes abortion, toll roads and new taxes. He supports school choice and medical marijuana.
• None of the candidates for State Treasurer (so far) are from anywhere near the Ozarks. Didn't anyone see a regional opening down here? It's likely that regular voters won't know much about any of candidates running, and it could be hard for an unknown Treasurer candidate from any party to get much attention down here in this overloaded political year.
• Rep. Roy Blunt already has four opponents lined up against him. Three Democrats have filed for the 7th District Congressional Seat. Richard Monroe is the eyebrow raiser here, because he's a former Assistant U.S. Attorney. That probably means he's serious, and not just doing this because he's got free time. Tharon Chandler has a website up and running, and he's apparently looking for a lovely lady to lay on the beach with him. But seriously, where's Midge Potts this time? The 7th would be an uphill battle for any Democrat. But Rep. Blunt hasn't filed yet. I'm not saying anything, but remember, this has been a strange year.
• Joe Allen of Forsyth is the sole Democrat to file for Missouri's 8th District seat, currently held by Rep. Jo Ann Emerson. He's got a website up, but no platform.
• 62nd District Representative Dennis Wood officially has a primary opponent in Jeff Justus. Also earning primary opponents were, Rep. Don Ruzicka in Mount Vernon. Former Pierce City Mayor Mark Peters is challenging Ruzicka on the Republican side. In the 134th legislative district, Rep. Jim Viebrock has another primary challenger. Not the Mayor of Republic this time, but Brookline Station's Mark Stuppy. If it's the one I found in the Yellow Pages, he's a Doctor. In Springfield's #135th, Jim Palmisano is challenging Rep. Charlie Denison in the G.O.P. primary. Palmisano was/is a major Ron Paul backer. Democrat Nancy Hagan didn't waste anytime at a second crack at Denison. Eric Burlison is the lone G.O.P. filer for Rep. B.J. Marsh's seat so far. I hear the Dems have a Missouri State University professor as their #136th candidate, but he hasn't filed yet. Republican Ron Day is taking a crack at Rep. Charlie Norr. But party heavyweights Sara Lampe and Bob Dixon have no opponents, at least on the first day.

Again, that full list can be found HERE.

And if anyone knows anything more about the new filers, please do share . . .

Could Ohio Turn Out Like Missouri?

Joe Klein writes about Hillary Clinton's chances in Ohio and compares the state's demographics to Missouri in his Time magazine column:

"The demographics are also not nearly so friendly as the Clinton staff thinks, especially in Ohio -- a state that seems to be the mirror image of Missouri, which Obama won. Ohio's population is 84% white (the exact same as in Missouri), 11.8% black (11.3% in Missouri) and 2.3% Hispanic (2.8% in Missouri). The percentages of college graduates and the household-income distribution are nearly identical as well."

The Dem Delegate Breakdown

CLINTON WINS 36, OBAMA WINS 36

The Missouri Democratic Party today preliminarily awarded both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton 36 delegates a piece following Tuesday's presidential primary.

With a 10,479-vote victory statewide, Senator Obama won Missouri’s statewide delegates by a 13-12 margin, while Senator Clinton won Missouri’s congressional district delegates by a 24-23 margin.

In Missouri's 7th Congressional district, Clinton won 60% of the vote to Obama's 40%. -- giving them each 2 delegates. By raw votes, Clinton beat Obama in the 7th, 41,853 to 27,473. Obama was strongest in the 1st Congressional district, winning more than 91,000 or 73% of the vote. Clinton was strongest in the 8th Congressional district, taking 46,847 or 70% of the vote.

10 Things We Learned From Super Tuesday

1) After a botched projection, Barack Obama has apparently defeated Hillary Clinton in Missouri, 49%-48%.

2) John McCain has defeated Mike Huckabee in Missouri, 33%-32%.

3) Both results could trigger a recount request, because the margin is less than 1 percent.

4) A recount is probably unlikely because Obama and Clinton will split the state's delegates.

5) John McCain will be the likely 2008 Republican nominee for president.

6) Clinton won traditionally big, strong Democratic states. Obama won smaller states that vote more Republican in general elections. This nomination fight will go on.

7) The delegate picture on the Democratic side remains muddled and unclear, but it looks and feels close.

8) Obama is strongest in the caucus format and those contests are next, with caucus contests in Nebraska and Washington on Saturday.

9) With wins in several southern states, Mike Huckabee made a strong case for himself as McCain's vice-presidential candidate.

10) No race in Missouri should ever be called without all of St. Louis City and County counted.

***So what else did we learn? Or not learn? Suggestions . . . How is February 6th different than February 5th?

NBC: OBAMA WINS MISSOURI

BARACK OBAMA . . . 394,621 . . . 48.9%
HILLARY CLINTON . . . 389,170 . . . 48.3%

ORIGINAL AP PROJECTION WAS WRONG . . . OBAMA TAKES BELLWEATHER STATE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT!

LATE RETURNS FROM ST. LOUIS PROVE THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN . . .

THEY DID IT AGAIN!

BREAKING . . .

The Associated Press is uncalling the Democratic presidential race in Missouri.

The vote now suggests the race is too close to call for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama has taken the lead. About 68 precincts are still outstanding.

Early Greene County Numbers

GREENE COUNTY

HUCKABEE 1,700
MCCAIN 966
ROMNEY 810

CLINTON 2,367
OBAMA 1,872

With 291 precincts in, Huckabee leads McCain 37%-30%. Clinton leads Obama 56%-38%.

Christian County Returns

HUCKABEE LEADS REPUBLICANS, MCCAIN SECOND, ROMNEY THIRD

HILLARY BEATING OBAMA 2-1 IN CHRISTIAN COUNTY.

MCCAIN AND CLINTON BOTH HOLD LARGE LEADS IN JACKSON COUNTY, THE KANSAS CITY AREA.

Missouri Returns . . .

EARLY, EARLY RETURNS . . .

LACLEDE AND TEXAS COUNTIES COMING IN HEAVY FOR HILLARY CLINTON OVER BARACK OBAMA . . . ALMOST 3-TO-1.

HUCKABEE BEATING MCCAIN AND ROMNEY 2-1 in LACLEDE COUNTY. ALSO HUCKABEE HOLDS BIG LEAD IN TEXAS COUNTY.

DEVELOPING . . .

Missouri Too Close To Call

NBC NEWS PROJECTS . . .

JOHN MCCAIN WINS ILLINOIS, CONNECTICUT AND NEW JERSEY.
MITT ROMNEY WINS MASSACHUSETTS.

BARACK OBAMA WINS GEORGIA AND ILLINOIS.
HILLARY CLINTON WINS OKLAHOMA.

MISSOURI TOO CLOSE TO CALL ON BOTH SIDES . . .
Just 6 precincts of 3371 in . . . @ 7:09 PM

FINAL MISSOURI POLLS

REUTERS/CSPAN/ZOGBY

DEMOCRATS

Barack Obama 45%

Hillary Clinton 42%

860 likely voters/Feb. 2-4/Margin of Error 3.4%

REPUBLICANS

John McCain 34%

Mike Huckabee 27%

Mitt Romney 25%

860 likely voters/Feb. 2-4/Margin of Error 3.4%

Tornado Warnings on Election Day

ONLY IN THE OZARKS

WILL WEATHER HAMPER TURNOUT?
WARNINGS IN:

SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
TANEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 415 PM CST.

The View From Your Polling Place

It Is Time

***SUPER DUPER TUESDAY***
Polls Close @ 7 p.m. in Missouri
FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE HERE
Weather: Scattered Storms, High 40s

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THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WATCH
Who's Supposed to Win Where

24 TOTAL STATES IN PLAY

(Listed In Order of Poll Closings)

WEST VIRGINIA ROMNEY (GOP ONLY)

OBAMA GEORGIA TOSS UP

TOSS UP ALABAMA MCCAIN

TOSS UP CONNECTICUT MCCAIN
CLINTON DELAWARE MCCAIN

OBAMA ILLINOIS MCCAIN
CLINTON MASSACHUSETTS ROMNEY

TOSS UP MISSOURI TOSS UP

CLINTON NEW JERSEY MCCAIN

CLINTON OKLAHOMA TOSS UP
CLINTON TENNESSEE TOSS UP

CLINTON ARKANSAS HUCKABEE

OBAMA (DEMS ONLY) KANSAS

TOSS UP ARIZONA MCCAIN

TOSS UP COLORADO ROMNEY

TOSS UP MINNESOTA MCCAIN

CLINTON (DEMS ONLY) NEW MEXICO

CLINTON NEW YORK MCCAIN

OBAMA (DEMS ONLY) IDAHO

MONTANA ROMNEY (GOP ONLY)
OBAMA NORTH DAKOTA TOSS UP
TOSS UP UTAH ROMNEY

TOSS UP CALIFORNIA TOSS UP
TOSS UP ALASKA ROMNEY

Stay with KY3 News @ 5,6 throughout primetime and at 10 -- as well as the KY3 Political Notebook all day long for full coverage, anecdotes and analysis.

SurveyUSA: Clinton 54%, Obama 43%

HUCKABEE STRONG IN THE OZARKS ---

IS IT ENOUGH FOR AN UPSET?

The latest SurveyUSA poll in Missouri shows Hillary Clinton with a wide lead over Barack Obama.

So I guess somebody's wrong. As a previous post mentions, Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby gives Obama the edge.

SURVEYUSA
Hillary Clinton 54%
Barack Obama 43%

Clinton holds her largest lead in Southwest Missouri, 62%-31%.

The RealClearPolitics average puts Clinton up by 4.

On the Republican side SURVEYUSA shows a tightening race between John McCain, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.

SURVEYUSA
John McCain 33%
Mike Huckabee 31%
Mitt Romney 28%

In the Ozarks, Huckabee is the clear favorite, taking 50% of the vote to Romney's 25% and McCain's 20%.

McCain Scraps Springfield for Delegate Rich Cali.

"Don't call him a liberal . . .

It makes it look like you're losing."

Republican presidential frontrunner John McCain scrapped a scheduled satellite interview with KY3 News this afternoon in favor of interviews with cities in delegate-rich California.

The most interesting part of the satellite interviews actually came in between the interviews, when advisers whispered advice to McCain.

At one point an adviser named Steve (could be adviser Steve Schmidt?) instructed McCain not to call rival Mitt Romney a liberal, to McCain's chagrin. "Don't call him a liberal," the adviser told McCain with his microphone on. "It makes it look like you're losing," he added.

After McCain asked why, the adviser replied, "Trust me on this." The adviser then muttered something about "Bush voters," but that comment was unclear.

At another point between interview breaks, McCain told his adviser that he would stress the "troop withdrawal message" with local reporters around the country. "I think that's what made the difference in Florida," McCain said between interviews, referring to his criticism of Mitt Romney for setting a timetable for withdrawal. McCain hammered that message repeatedly in interviews.

McCain also made it clear he wanted news organizations to focus on a letter written today by former Senator Bob Dole to Rush Limbaugh, touting McCain's conservative credentials.

"We got to get that out there before the evening news," McCain instructed an aide. "Does CNN have it," he later asked.

During the actual taping of interviews, McCain stayed on message. "We expect to do extremely well throughout the country Tuesday, and come out with a very, very big lead in delegates."

Blunt Votes Absentee in Springfield

SLAMS HUCKABEE FOR PUSH POLLS

Gov. Matt Blunt voted absentee in the Republican Party presidential primary at the Greene County courthouse. The governor favors former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for president, and says he cast his ballot accordingly on Monday morning.

Romney campaigned on Sunday in Maryland Heights, a St. Louis suburb, and predicted he will win in Missouri on Super Tuesday. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Blunt, Missouri House Speaker Rod Jetton, and former U.S. Senator Jim Talent joined Romney at the rally.


Blunt also took his aim at Gov. Mike Huckabee today, accusing his supporers of distorting Romney's record.

"A secret 527 Group supporting Governor Mike Huckabee - called Common Sense Issues - is distorting Governor Romney's record with push polls in Missouri and across the country. I know that Missouri voters will not respond to these deplorable and desperate tactics," Blunt said in a statement.

"We want an issues based campaign, a campaign about the future of our country, and we will not take kindly to out-of-state special interest groups calling us up and saying things that are not true about a candidate's record. Governor Romney is the real conservative candidate who will cut taxes, fight illegal immigration, and strengthen our military. It is time for Governor Huckabee to put an end to these push polls and begin running a campaign on the issues," Blunt added.

Fresh Poll: Obama Leapfrogs Ahead In Missouri

MCCAIN BENEFITS FROM CONSERVATIVE SPLIT

Senator Barack Obama has slipped ahead of Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary race in Missouri, according to the latest Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby tracking poll.

Barack Obama 47%
Hillary Clinton 42%
851 likely voters/Feb. 1-3/Margin of Error 3.4%

Obama leapfrogged over Clinton in Missouri, gaining four points while she dropped two points to end the tracking period with 47% support to her 42%. Clinton continued to lead among white voters with 48% of their support to Obama’s 40%, while Obama had a four-to-one margin over Clinton with African American voters.

On the Republican side, Senator John McCain seems to be holding a steady lead over rivals Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

John McCain 35%
Mike Huckabee 27%
Mitt Romney 24%
852 likely voters/Feb. 1-3/Margin of Error 3.4%

McCain is clearly benefiting from the conservative split between Huckabee and Romney. Much of Huckabee’s support came from the conservative southwestern part of the state, where he got 41% support, compared to McCain’s 28% and Romney’s 19% support. McCain dominated in St. Louis, where he had 40% support to Huckabee’s 10% and Romney’s 25% support.

Top Ozarks Republicans Still Undecided

NEITHER ROMNEY NOR MCCAIN HAVE SEALED DEAL

Many Republican leaders around the Ozarks remain undecided about which candidate to vote for just hours before Tuesday's Missouri primary, according to a KY3 Political Notebook survey.

A series of interviews with party activists and G.O.P. county chairs around the Ozarks found a significant amount of Republican leaders still shifting between the remaining three viable candidates to nominate.

"Obviously it's down to a 2-man race," said Barry County chair David Cole, referring to Mitt Romney and John McCain. "But I haven't decided yet."

While some are still sorting through candidate characteristics and sifting through issues, others are searching for a new candidate to support after their favorite pick dropped out.

Springfield Committeewoman Leigh Anne Garren was a Rudy Giuliani supporter. Now she said she is "going back and forth" between Romney and McCain. "I just don't know," she said. "I was so thrown off when Rudy got out," she added. As for Giuliani's endorsement of McCain, Garren said it won't have an impact on her ultimate decision.

Lawrence County Chair Sherri George is also trying to decide between Romney and McCain. She said she's finding many Lawrence County Republicans are still undecided. "I'm still just as confused as the first day," George said, with a laugh.

"I want a businessman, which Mitt Romney brings. But I like the good characteristics of John McCain, and his history," she said.

"I'm not 100% even now," said Christian County chair Ed Merritt. Merritt said he likes McCain on defense, Romney on fiscal issues and Mike Huckabee on social issues, but is still "trying to find the one who has more than one thing."

Cedar County Chair Barbara Bobbett said she leaned towards Mitt Romney months ago, but no longer. "I like him when he started out," said Bobbett about Romney. "The more I see him, the less I like him," she added.

So now, Bobbett has narrowed it down between McCain and Huckabee. "There's a lot of apathy out there," Bobbett said of Republicans she has talked with. "I just don't look for us to have a huge turnout Tuesday."

Stone County Chair Thomas Martin, who also pins himself as undecided, said his Republican committee is split. "I think this has been a very unique year for Republicans," Martin said. "None of them have stepped out and taken a commanding lead."

The survey revealed that the electability argument may be hurting Huckabee late in the game. Several party people ruled out voting for Huckabee just because they don't think he can win.

"I don't know if Huckabee is electable. He is probably not going to be one of the ones I vote for. The other two, I think can win the presidency." Merritt said.

Don't tell that to Dallas County Chair Charles Matthews. "Huckabee has the good conservative values this country needs. He's my man," Matthews said. But even he admits his man is a longshot. "He's got a shot, it's not a good shot," he added. When asked if he bought into the argument that a vote for Huckabee is a wasted vote or a vote for McCain, Matthews replied, "It might be, but I'm sticking with Huck."

So with no clear favorite, some are turning to strategy to help make up their minds. "I'm trying to decide who the Democratic candidate is going to be -- and then decide who can beat that," George said.

Merritt said the best thing to happen to Republicans is if the Democrats nominate Senator Hillary Clinton. "If Hillary wins, she will be the uniter for the Republican party," Merritt said.

The Barack Obama Interview

CALLS "SPECIAL INTERESTS" KEY DIFFERENCE WITH CLINTON

KY3 News interviewed Senator Barack Obama exclusively via satellite on Friday. Here are excerpts from our exchange:

Catanese - Senator Obama, you've been to St. Louis and Kansas City, but decided against a visit to conservative Springfield. If you are the unifying candidate, why not come to the conservative part of the state?
Obama - I would love to come to Springfield, but we've got 22 other states, so we're doing our best. Obviously, you got Senator Clinton and President Clinton. It gives them a little bit of an advantage in terms of travel. You know that Missouri is important to me. I practically feel like I'm a Missourian, given that I'm from a neighboring state and we share a lot of the same issues. Downstate, I think is a predominantly rural area, agricultural area. And I know what is happening in downstate Illinois, is happening in portions of Missouri as well. People are losing jobs, young people are moving away. We've got to figure out how to reinvigorate the economy.

Catanese - Most people understand that you were opposed to the War in Iraq by now. We know that there are small differences between your healthcare plan and Senator Clinton's. Other than that, what's the biggest policy difference between the two of you?
Obama - What I actually think the biggest difference is, is not just a policy issue, but how we change this country. I believe we have to reduce the influence of special interests and lobbyists in Washington. That's why I don't take PAC money. That's why I don't take money from federal registered lobbyists. Senator Clinton, I think, has a very different view. She thinks that's part of the game as its played in Washington and feels comfortable with that. I don't think we're going to get healthcare passed. I don't think we're going to get a tax code that provides tax relief to working families as opposed to CEOs, unless we got a change in who's in the room when these laws are being drafted. I have a track record of reducing that influence. Last year, I passed the toughest ethics reform since Watergate. That's the kind of leadership I want to show as President of the United States.

Catanese - Will you win John Edwards' endorsement?
Obama - I will actively seek John's endorsement. I think he ran a great campaign. I think he is an outstanding candidate. I'm hopeful that he recognizes that he was a candidate of change as am I. I think there's a lot of overlap in our agenda and I look forward to his support.