Tuesday, October 31, 2006

The Frist-Talent Stem Cell Split

While Majority Leader Bill Frist spent the day campaigning for Sen. Jim Talent, the two have different views on federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.

Frist supports federal funding for research; Talent does not. Frist has called embryonic stem cells "uniquely necessary for treating diseases." He has said "limitations would slow ability to bring cures for diseases."

Talent has said adult stem cells have showed the most promise for cures. When asked about the stem cell split with Frist, Talent said, "I didn't think a whole lot about it."

Talent repeated his opposition to Amendment 2, a ballot initiative designed to protect multiple forms of stem cell research in the state constitution. "It creates a constitutional right to clone, which I don't support, but there are alternatives out there. I think on that issue Senator Frist and I would be in agreement."

He said he has supported $2 billion dollars for stem cell research, not including embryonic.

But Talent said he agreed with President Bush, that federally funding embryonic research "would be wrong." "I don't want to cross the line and for the first time find research that would involve the destruction of a human embryo," Talent said. "It's a separate issue as whether you support cloning as opposed to the federal issue. It's just a different issue," Talent said, hinting that Frist would oppose Missouri's amendment as well.

"I'm not going to get involved in the legislature agenda on the ballot," responded Frist when I asked him his position on Missouri's Amendment 2. "I am someone who does support stem cell research but I don't think you should be able to create living embryos and destroy them. I support adult and embryonic stem cell research but the embryonic research that stops short of creating living embryos and then killing those embryos to get stem cells."

Frist is referring to doing research on existing embryos, which would still have to be destroyed to extract stem cells.

Talent said he was more in line with Frist on being against creating embryos to kill them, but differed with Frist on the federal funding issue. Overall, Talent takes the harder line.

"On the federal issue, he (Frist) has supported funding for that," Talent said. "I don't want to cross the line and get into something that requires the destruction of a human embryo."

Frist kept coming back to where he agreed with Talent. "I believe that the embryo is living tissue. It's biologically human. You were an embryo and I don't believe we should be destroying them for research purposes," Frist said.

It's a thin stem cell line for the Republicans to walk on a complicated issue for voters to comprehend.

Bond Tacitly Endorses Frist for President

Sen. Kit Bond tacitly endorsed Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee for President in 2008 in Springfield Tuesday.

During comments introducing Frist at a rally for Senator Jim Talent today, Bond poked fun at Frist for his early experience at retail politics.

"When he started, he was the awfulist Republican candidate I'd ever seen," Bond joked. "I went back six months later, and he was a quick learner," Bond said, recalling his experience campaigning for Frist back in 1994.

"He's retiring from the Senate this year, but as far as I'm concerned, I hope he doesn't retire from statesmanship and higher office," Bond said. "But I'm going to be supporting him."

In an interview with Sen. Bond afterwards, I asked him if he had just endorsed Frist for President in 2008.

"I want to support him if he moves up because I think he's one of the finest leaders we've got," Bond replied.

So what other office would Frist be moving up to?

"There's one obvious to me," Bond replied.

So is that an endorsement?

"I want to see him move up the ladder. He hasn't decided so I haven't declared," Bond replied.

But if he does declare?

"I'm a strong Frist supporter," Bond said, keeping it at that.

A tacit endorsement for President? At the least!

Frist: Dems Surrender White Flag, Cut & Run; Warns of Pelosi's Culture of Hollywood

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist rallied the Republican faithful in Springfield Tuesday to re-elect Sen. Jim Talent to his first full-term.

Missouri's Senior Senator Kit Bond accompanied Talent and Frist on the campaign trail around the Ozarks as well.

"Jim's a man of calm demeanor," Bond said. "Something I've never been accused of."

Bond lauded Talent's leadership on the cornerstones of his campaign: ethanol and anti-meth bills, as well as his support for lower taxes and tough terrorism policies.

"The Senate is a lot like Hollywood, with lots of showhorses. He's a workhorse," Bond said of Talent.

Bond also took a dig at Talent's Democratic opponent, Claire McCaskill on the issue of taxes. "Missouri families support lower taxes, unless you happen to have assets in an off-shore tax shelter, where you don't pay any taxes," Bond said to laughs from the crowd. "But for those of us who don't, we know we need to keep the tax rates low."

Majority Leader Frist called the Democrats the "party of obstructionism." Frist lead the crowd in cheers of Republicans being "right" and Democrats being "wrong" on a host of issues.

"When I say the Republicans are right, we are basically saying we're going to defeat the terrorists," Frist said. "The Democrats are wrong when they say surrender that white flag and let's cut and run."

"Americans and Republicans are right when they say we're out there fighting for the sanctity of life and marriage being between a man and a woman and Democrats are wrong when we have Nancy Pelosi and those leftist ideas and that culture of Hollywood coming forward," Frist said.

Looking well-rested and fashioning a new haircut, Talent said he was positioned "well" going into the last week. While Bond and Frist served up the red meat, Talent kept mostly to meat and potatoes, the issues he has touted all along. He gave his laundry list of accomplishments and tied them into reasons why to vote for him:

*Ethanol bill, with renewable fuels standard
*Combat Meth Act
*Tax Cuts which sparked 19 straight economic quarters of growth
*Support for federal marriage amendment
*Support for "life" at all stages
*Support for border fence; opposed to amnesty
*Support for warrantless wiretapping of terrorists

During his speech, he also touched on social issues that resonate with conservatives.

"I'm the only one in this race who believes in common sense conservative values. Senator Frist mentioned marriage. I think marriage is a relationship between a man and a woman," he said to big applause.

"I'm a strong believer in the dignity and value of life at all stages. I stood up for the partial birth abortion ban," Talent added, being interrupted by applause again.

Talent said he has visited 50 counties in the last month, but urged supporters to get involved in the G.O.P's 72-hour get-out-the vote program.

"We will do our part. Please do your part, let's get out the vote," Talent said. "Let's win on November 7th."

Claire McCaskill will hold a rally in Springfield Wednesday at 4:15 at Parkview High School. Barring breaking news or unforeseen circumstances, KY3 News plans equal opportunity coverage.

Minimum Wage Opponents Post Podcast

The Save Our States Jobs group, a coalition of business associations opposing Proposition B - the initiative to raise the state's minimum wage - has posted a podcast about why to vote "No."

Below is the link,

http://commercials.learfield.com/Learfield%20Data/SOSJobs_Final.mp3

Here's the website of the group pushing for the wage hike.

Champion Campaign: We're Up By Double Digits

Sen. Norma Champion's campaign spokesman says Champion leads Democrat Doug Harpool by double-digits in the race for State Senate, according to a Republican poll done just this week.

Spokesman Mike Barnett called to notify me of the poll Tuesday afternoon after reading our Insiders Poll that reported a Democratic survey showing Harpool within single digits of Champion.

Barnett questioned the Democratic survey's accuracy, and said their internal polling indicates that Champion in good shape. He said their campaign numbers show Champion with "over a 10-point lead," in a poll of 300 Springfield voters. He said the poll was taken over the last few days and had a margin of error of 5%.

SurveyUSA: McCaskill 49% Talent 46%; McCaskill Gaining Slight Edge

So about that momentum thing. Yeah.
I guess it's still up for grabs. Round n' Round it goes, says SurveyUSA.

Ain't this fun!?

Just when a slew of polls last week began trending toward Sen. Jim Talent's narrow re-election, brand new polls out in the final week are giving Claire McCaskill a slight edge.

SurveyUSA gives McCaskill a 3-point edge with less than a week to go.

Claire McCaskill 49%
Sen. Jim Talent 46%

Here's what SurveyUSA believes . . . slight trend towards McCaskill?

The Missouri Senate race remains a jump ball 7 days to the election, according to the latest . Three weeks ago, Democrat challenger Claire McCaskill led. Last week, Republican incumbent Jim Talent led. Today, McCaskill is back on top, this time by 3 points, within the margin of sampling error, true, but now with just enough of an advantage at this precise hour to allow one to say the odds are with her again. There is a complex, symbiotic relationship in Missouri between the U.S. Senate race and Amendment 2, on stem-cell research. It is difficult to separate cause and effect. If you examine SurveyUSA's tracking graphs on the Senate contest, you will see little movement among Democrats and little movement among Republicans. But among Independents, the lead has changed hands 4 times in 5 polls. Today, McCaskill leads by 6 among the 21% of Missouri Likely Voters who describe themselves as Independent, up 6 from 1 week ago. Among middle-income voters, the lead has also changed hands 4 times. Last week, Talent was up 9; today, McCaskill is up 10. Rural MO continues to support Talent. Urban MO continues to support McCaskill. The suburbs are now tied. Of those voting 'Yes' on Amendment 2, 76% back McCaskill. Of those voting 'No' on 2, 82% back Talent.

It's Official: Here Comes the President!

The White House made official today what KY3 News told you last week: President Bush is coming to Springfield Friday to campaign for Senator Jim Talent.

The White House said Tuesday that President Bush will travel to Missouri on Friday to campaign for Republican Senator Jim Talent. It will be the first time the two appear together at a public campaign event in the state this year.

Two of the places that Bush likely will visit are Joplin and Springfield. The White House likely will release other details about the trip on Tuesday afternoon. The Republican Party, law officers and the Springfield Expo Center have been preparing for the visit since at least last week, although some of Talent's campaign staff said the trip has been in the works for several weeks.

Bush's trip is an effort to help Talent and other Republicans motivate conservative voters just four days before the election on Nov. 7. Recent polls continue to show Talent and Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill running even in a race that could determine whether Democrats regain a majority in the Senate.

Talent has largely avoided mentioning the president in his campaign speeches and TV ads. Bush campaigned in Springfield for Talent and other Republicans at Hammons Student Center at Southwest Missouri State University in 2002.

Some Republicans say the media's focus on Talent's supposed distance from the President is hogwash. "It's just not true. Senator Talent has always opened his arms to the President. He's been here before for events and fundraisers. The media has just gotten it wrong," complains one Republican.

CNN: Talent 49% McCaskill 49%; McCaskill Opens 8-Point Lead Among Registered Voters

A new CNN poll shows a dead heat between Sen. Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill.

Likely Voters
Sen. Jim Talent 49%
Claire McCaskill 49%

The poll taken of 565 likely voters shows Talent and McCaskill deadlocked.

Among registered voters, McCaskill leads Talent by 8 points.

Registered Voters
Claire McCaskill 51%
Sen. Jim Talent 43%

The sampling error for likely voters was plus or minus 4 percentage points; for registered voters, plus or minus 3 percentage points. The polls were taken by Opinion Research between Oct. 26th to Oct. 29th.

The CNN poll indicates that while more voters favor McCaskill, Republican/Talent supporters seem more energized to get out and actually cast a ballot.

Another source tells the KY3 Political Blog that a new Rasmussen poll will show Claire McCaskill with a slight lead 48%-47%.

Frist By Day; Nixon By Night

Sen. Bill Frist is expected to be in Springfield within the next half hour to stump for Sen. Jim Talent's re-election campaign. We'll be there.

Tonight, the Democrats are bringing in Attorney General Jay Nixon to boost some of their legislative candidates. According to a release, Nixon will stump for Rep. Charlie Dake of the 132nd District in Lawrence County. Nixon will campaign for Dake from 5-7 p.m. at the Aurora Community Center in Aurora. The public is invited to attend. Republican Don Ruzicka is challenging Dake for his seat in one week.

I'm told Nixon will then head to Willard for an event with #139th district Democratic candidate Jamie Schoolcraft. Schoolcraft is battling Republican Shane Schoeller for Rep. Brad Roark's open seat.

Happy Halloween!

WSJ/Zogby: Talent 49% McCaskill 47%; Slight Talent Momentum Into Final Week?

With one week to go before the election, Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill narrowly, according to a new Wall Street Journal-Zogby poll.

Sen. Jim Talent 49%
Claire McCaskill 47%

While Talent leads narrowly, this poll is consistent with a slew of recent polls giving Talent an ever-so-slight edge over McCaskill.

"It's really odd because we felt she had the momentum after the debates, and then somehow lost it," according to one Springfield Democratic strategist. "Talent's not breaking 50%, but she's not up in any poll," noted another Democrat.

In this poll, Talent leads among men; McCaskill wins women. McCaskill leads 48%-45% with independents. Zogby notes that McCaskill leads 71%-28% among self-declared moderates.

Zogby notes that both Talent and McCaskill have gained traction in this poll since September, and cautions that Talent's lead, while consistent, remains within the margin of error.

Oddly enough, two new polls give Virginia Democratic challenger Jim Webb an edge over incumbent Sen. George Allen. In fact, one political site now lists Allen as a more vulnerable Republican than Talent.

One Springfield Democrat offers this anecdotal of McCaskill's problem: "I met two women Democrats the other day that said they seem wary of voting for Claire, and these are hard-core Democrats! This kind of concerns me. The problem is that there is a slither of voters out there that don't think Claire is warm, and they tried to address that by having her in the kitchen with pots and pans and her mom in those ads. But it's a warmth factor that's creeping in," said this Democratic strategist.

"I always say once people meet her one-on-one, she wins them over. She's smart, articulate, passionate and engaging. But I'm not sure TV is the best medium for her," the strategist added.

"And the negatives may be taking a toll. One Democratic woman said the other day, 'what's going on with Claire and these nursing homes and her husband,?' I told her it was baloney. But she said the Talent ads seemed convincing. That worries me," the strategist said.

Monday, October 30, 2006

One Week Away: The INSIDERS Poll

One week from election day, I bring to you the Decision 2006 Insiders Poll.

This is a compilation of insight from interviews with local Republican and Democratic leaders, strategists and campaign operatives about what will happen on Election Day before it actually does. These are NOT endorsements. This is a political playbook. The focus is on the local Springfield legislative races. I spoke with around a dozen of some of the most plugged in politicos and granted them anonymity to give them the freedom to talk candid about the true chances and fortunes of candidates in their own party. The ratings are based on their insights, anecdotes, polling information and historic trends.

So now, without further ado, here's the KY3 Decision 2006 Insiders Poll.

State Senate District #30
(R) Sen. Norma Champion
(D) Doug Harpool
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
Doug Harpool has an uphill battle at unseating Aunt Norma, but there is some indication that he's gaining traction with one week to go. One Democrat tells me that Harpool has narrowed the polling deficit with Champion "to single digits, just outside the margin of error." It may be one of the reasons the Champion campaign decided to go on the attack this week, with ads targeting Harpool on a vote to fund a St. Louis stadium. "Someone in her camp sees this race tightening," offers a loyal Republican. "But I just can't believe Champion won't win this thing." One Republican has questions about Champion's age and health. "I know her eyesight is very, very bad. A few people have said she just does what people tell her to do, but I don't know if I believe that." The same Republican says she likes the stadium ad targeting Harpool, but admits it seems ill-timed with the Cardinals winning the World Series. Another Republican says Champion is in "good shape" when loyal Democrats like attorney Tom Strong hold fundraisers for her. "The name change has helped her in support and fundraising," notes a Republican. A Democrat predicts the race will be within a few thousand votes either way. "It's a longshot for us, but if we get a wave turnout, we've got an outside shot," he says. Another politico observes: "You'll see more spent on this race this weekend, than the job pays."

State House District #134
(R) Rep. Jim Viebrock
(D) Christopher Brown
Rating: Safe Republican Retention
"The only question here is if Viebrock wins with 60% or 70%," jokes one Democrat. "He's not the most dynamic legislator, but he's better than the alternative," says a Republican operative. "This district is Republican territory. The only battle was in the primary."

State House District #135
(R) Rep. Charlie Denison
(D) Nancy Hagan
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
Demographically, this is one of the most Republican districts in the entire state. It's expected to be a win for Rep. Denison, but some are questioning how easy a win it will be. "We've got an outside chance at this race just because Nancy is known and working hard, and there was some rift in the G.O.P. primary with Denison and Dunn," says one longtime Springfield Democrat. "Hagan has lots of signs up and being a teacher helps," offers one north Springfield Republican. "But that would be the stunner of the night if we lost." One Democrat campaign operative predicts Denison will hold on, but barely, "just because she was not impressive." Another Dem calls it closer than expected, but admits, "if she wins, it's a big night for us."

State House District #136
(R) Rep. B.J. Marsh
(D) James Owen
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
One Democratic operative says the party's latest internal poll has Marsh leading Owen by 7 to 10 points. But he also sees momentum towards Owen, just because of his energy. "This should be safe, but B.J.'s been snuck up on and beaten before, like in 1992. I can see that shaping up this year," the Democrat says. "Owen has walked the district almost twice, B.J. hasn't done much." Another Democratic strategist disagrees. He believes Owen blew this race early when he failed to exploit Marsh's poor attendance record. "Owen spent too much money too early, and he missed hitting B.J. on not being there. But B.J's a moderate. The Democrats could do a lot worse than B.J. Marsh," he says. A Republican predicts B.J. will win handily. "B.J. always just does his own thing and it's worked for him in the past."

State House District #137 - OPEN SEAT
(R) Dan Scott
(D) Charlie Norr
Rating: Leans Democratic Pick-Up
"We are well-positioned to win this seat, if our people come out," says a Democratic official close to the campaign. This is a battle for Rep. Mark Wright, an open seat in a district that is one of the poorest in the state, and leans Democratic. "The problem is our voters haven't come out in the past. But with the Medicaid cuts and the minimum wage, we believe they are coming out this time. According to internal Democratic surveys, Norr is ahead and polling over 50% in the district. "Dan Scott is a nice guy, but he's probably a little to slick for this district. He'd fit better in the #135th. This is a working class, blue collar neighborhood," says one Democrat. "I think the Democrats have a great shot at a pick-up in the #137th," says a Republican. "This district trends Democrat and with no incumbent, it will be tough. It's definitely Democratic leaning. I'm not going to be surprised if Norr wins at all."

State House District #138
(D) Rep. Sara Lampe
(R) Steve Helms
Rating: Safe Democratic Retention
Some Republicans still hold out hope that Segway-riding Steve Helms has a chance at ousting Sara Lampe. "I think it is nip and tuck," says one Republican. "Steve Helms has been working hard, hitting doors on his scooter," says another. But another Republican says he would be surprised if Lampe lost. "She's got notable Republican supporters because of her years in education. That makes her distinct, and plus it's a mixed district," says the G.O.P. official. Another indication Lampe is in good shape? Endorsements from the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association. "The Chamber has no need to give an endorsement to a Democrat that doesn't agree with them on a lot. The bottom line is that the numbers show she is safe, and they want to go with a winner," says a Democratic strategist. "They've spent money to beat her before, and they aren't doing it this time. That tells you something."

State House District #139 - OPEN SEAT
(R) Shane Schoeller
(D) Jamie Schoolcraft
Rating: TOSS-UP
It could turn out to be the closest race of the night, according to politicos from both sides. It's a race for Rep. Brad Roark's old seat in a reliably Republican district. But the hometown roots of Schoolcraft are making this contest competitive. Internal Democratic polling shows Schoolcraft above 50% and with a small lead, but one that could be wiped out easily if Republicans turn out in force. "I think it will probably be close, from everything I see and hear," says one Republican who has lived in the district for most of her life. "I'm proud of Shane for keeping it clean on his part. He should win. His opponent has worked pretty hard, but he's been a little dirty about it and that could backfire," says this Republican. "If you would've asked me a few weeks ago, I'd say it was surely Republican, but apparently this Schoolcraft is making a big push," says another Republican with knowledge of the district. "Still I give Shane a slight edge because a certain amount of the district is rural and can't be walked," says the Republican. "I think it's getting close," says yet another female Republican with ties to the party in the district. "Schoolcraft has a good background, I think it will be close." But a moderate Republican believes knocking on doors doesn't necessarily mean votes and thinks Schoeller will win with 60%. "I just feel Schoeller's connection with the Blunt's and conservatives will help. Jamie is very sincere and he is working very hard, but I think people are going to turn out to vote down this stem cell thing and that helps conservatives," he says. Want another indication that Dems are salivating over the race? The House Democratic campaign committee just poured tens of thousands of dollars into Schoolcraft's race for a final week of radio ads. I'm betting this will be one to watch either way.

State House District #140
(R) Rep. Bob Dixon
(D) Tonya Cunningham
Rating: Safe Republican Retention
"If Dixon doesn't pull at least 60% of the vote, he's a loser," jokes one Democratic strategist. Dixon is the most polished Republican lawmaker in the area, and politicos on all sides say he'll waltz to victory next week. But insiders on both sides say Dixon is already positioning himself for a future State Senate run. "Dixon's already preparing for the Senate race. That's why his signs are all over town. He's investing in the future," says a Democrat. Another Republican says "of course he is." "Why not, he's a talented legislator with a bright future." Some say as soon as this campaign is over, a subtle State Senate campaign between Rep. Dixon and Rep. Lampe will commence. Let's try to get through 2006 first:)

So, for Democrats, the party out of power, here is the list of their best chances of winning, in order from best to worst, according to the politicos interviewed over the past 2 days.

Best Shots At Dem Pick-Ups
1. Charlie Norr (#137)
2. Jamie Schoolcraft (#139)
3. Doug Harpool (Senate #30)
4. Nancy Hagan (#135)
5. James Owen (#136)
6. - (TIED) Chris Brown (#134) & Tonya Cunninham (#140)

The Race for Prosecutor: Brown Questions Moore's Priorities; Moore Calls Brown Unqualified

Republic attorney Andrew Brown is challenging Greene County Prosecutor Darrell Moore for his job because he says Moore has the wrong priorities.

Facing his first challenge in eight years, Moore says Brown isn't qualified for his job, and says he's offended by some of the charges Brown has leveled against his office.

"Many attorneys and judges are frustrated the way the Prosecutor's office is heading in recent years," Brown said in an interview Monday. "Darrell and I have different philosophies and priorities. He spends the majority of the time harping on the bar ban and sending letters to parents about getting their kids to school. I mean, my God, we have much bigger problems," Brown said.

"He doesn't have a clue about what he's talking about," Moore blasted back in a telephone interview from New York. "For a man to talk about my record like that, with his experience, it just goes to question if he even bothers to study the issues," Moore said.

Brown decided to jump into the race for Prosecutor back in March, when local Democratic honcho and attorney Craig Hosmer decided to pass on a run, and instead help Attorney General Jay Nixon with his bid for Governor.

Brown charges that Moore has not devoted enough time and resources to the county's number one problem: child abuse. Brown is pledging to devote one full-time prosecutor to child abuse cases, as well as several assistants.

Moore said he is aggressively pursuing the child abuse problem. "When you are prosecutor, you have to look at the big picture, and learn to multi-task on a bunch of issues. We've put more resources into child abuse than any other county in the state, and we've been recognized for it," Moore said.

He said he just got done doing an interview with National Public Radio on Greene County's child abuse program. "We're getting nationally recognized for it," Moore said.

Brown criticizes Moore for his reluctance to embrace special courts like the DWI court and mental health court. "These courts are designed for nonviolent offenders, and my opponent has historically opposed these programs," Brown said.

Moore said that criticism is another example of Brown's inability to understand the issues. "The only fight about the drug court was about how it was being run. We debated the acceptable models, got to a solution and got through it. My opponent needs to go study up," Moore said.

Moore took aim at Brown's experience. "This is the 3rd largest office in the state, and he lacks trial experience. He had to call my office the other day to ask one of my assistant's how to try a simple misdemeanor case. I don't think he's qualified to try a murder case. His experience is sadly lacking," Moore said.

Brown can't win the battle of experience with Moore, but said he is hearing from judges who are overwhelmed and prosecutors who are handcuffed. "Eight of nine judges I spoke to say they are so saturated with low-level, non-violent crimes, and prosecutors are handcuffed by Moore to go through with them and not plead out," Brown said.

Brown lists as an example the recent case of a 19-year-old caught drinking on his porch. "They work this minor case through the system. It gets reset a dozen times and takes time and resources. I'm not talking about dismissing charges. But a suspended sentence with community service isn't exactly getting off. It's not easy," Brown said.

"Darrell Moore spends a lot of energy on molehills, when we have mountains to climb," Brown said.

"Those molehills that he talks about feed into future activities. They are all tied together. The system is backed up. We do not have adequate public defenders, and we're working on that. But you cannot be one-dimensional as a prosecutor. The things that he would call molehills are the things that will prevent kids from becoming the victim of child abuse. Crimes of violence are tied in with substance abuse, which ties into youth violence, which ties into child abuse and domestic violence," Moore said.

Moore points to his main accomplishments as reorganizing the office to make it more efficient, his persistent lobbying for a Springfield crime lab and his work with the community on problems like child abuse and gang activity.

Brown said one of Moore's biggest flaws is his inability to get a death penalty conviction as lead prosecutor. He points to the 2003 Delong murder case involving the killing of 3 children, a girlfriend and her unborn baby. "Regardless of how you feel about it, this was a textbook death penalty case. He didn't get it," Brown said.

"We tried that case and got a locked jury. We pursued the death penalty, even when a lot of anti-death penalty people came after us," Moore said. "I obtained the death penalty in a 1994 case, but some of you haven't been around long enough to know this stuff. I don't need anyone to lecture me about how to try a case," Moore added. "My opponent has less experience than some of my assistants just out of law school."

If re-elected, Moore said his priorities will be stream-lining many of the office's duties electronically. "I want our assistant prosecutors to be able to go into court with a laptop, instead of chasing down papers and files," he said.

Brown knows his candidacy is a longshot, but said his top priority would be to focus big. "We don't have unlimited resources. My priorities would be bigger than keeping 18-year-old kids from dancing downtown."

"Darrell Moore is the only Republican Greene County Prosecutor in the last 30 years. Maybe George Bush will help me on the ballot," Brown said. "He's an incumbent, got name recognition. He can't hiccup without getting in the news, but voters should ask themselves, is it ok having the highest child abuse rate? Do they really feel safer than they did 8 years ago?"

Here Come The Big Guns!

Majority leader U.S. Senator Bill Frist will be in Springfield Tuesday morning to rally for Sen. Jim Talent's re-election bid. The event will be held at the Lamplighter Inn on South Glenstone at 11 a.m.

According to the release, Sen. Talent will address key differences between himself and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill. Talent is also set to discuss his plan to lower the cost of healthcare and keep taxes low for Missourians.

The Springfield stop is just one of several by Frist for Talent. Frist will also attend rallies in Joplin, Bolivar, Lebanon and Rolla.

The visit by Frist just comes 3 days before President Bush's visit to the Ozarks, first reported exclusively by KY3 News. Logistics of the President's visit are still being worked out. But sources say the President will speak in Springfield on early Friday morning, possibly somewhere within the 9 a.m. hour. KY3 News is planning to televise the President's speech live. A Republican source also tells the KY3 Blog that Bush will also rally for Sen. Talent in Joplin. An official announcement by the White House about the Bush visit could come as early as Tuesday.

Post-Dispatch: 42% Approve of Bush

42% of Missouri voters approve of President Bush, according to a new poll published by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

In Missouri, only 37 percent of those polled supported the Iraq war, while 57 percent said it was no longer worth it.

The Research 2000 Missouri Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, MD from October 23 through October 26, 2006. A total of 800 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. The margin of error is +/- 3.5%.

Meanwhile, will dissatisfaction with Missouri's Medicaid cuts impact U.S. Senate voters?

Saturday, October 28, 2006

Post-Dispatch: Voters Support All 3 Initiatives

According to polling by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Missouri voters could approve all three statewide ballot initiatives in just 9 days.

STEM CELL AMENDMENT 2
Support 51%
Oppose 35%
Undecided 14%

In Southwest Missouri, voters oppose the measure 54% to 35%.

MINIMUM WAGE HIKE
Support 63%
Oppose 29%
Undecided 8%

In Southwest Missouri, voters support the measure 52% to 39%.

TOBACCO TAX HIKE
Support 53%
Oppose 34%
Undecided 13%

In Southwest Missouri, voters oppose the measure 50% to 42%.

The minimum wage hike looks like it has the best shot at passing. If the wage hike was a politician, and it's opponent was at 29% at this point in the race, politicos would call it a done deal. By looking at this polling, it would take an election night stunner to shoot down the minimum wage hike.

The other two remain dicey. Undecideds are in the double-digits and stem cells seems very fluid and apt to turn on turnout.

So, bring your predictions henceforth. Which will pass, which will fail?

Post-Dispatch: Auditor's Race Remains Close

The race to replace Claire McCaskill as state Auditor is also coming down to the wire, according to a new St. Louis Post-Dispatch poll.

Susan Montee 45%
Sandra Thomas 40%

Democrat Susan Montee has a slight lead over Republican Sandra Thomas. But 12% remain undecided in this race. In Southwest Missouri, Thomas leads Montee 47% to 34%, but 18% remain undecided.

This race could ultimately be determined by other races and political factors beyond their control, according to political reporter Jo Mannies:

"But other numbers signal that the contest could be affected by the higher-profile Senate race and Amendment 2.Among those polled, more than a third said they had no opinion of Thomas — and almost as many said the same about Montee.The two did not engage in any televised debates, and their ad buys are far below those for or against the Senate candidates or Amendment 2. As a result, Ali said, "the overall mood of the state voters'' could well determine whether Montee or Thomas wins," write Mannies.

Post-Dispatch: Talent, McCaskill Deadlocked

Sen. Jim Talent and Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill are deadlocked in the race for U.S. Senate with just 9 days to go, according to the latest public poll published by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

Sen. Jim Talent 47%
Claire McCaskill 47%

"The latest Research 2000 poll conducted for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV (Channel 4) found voters evenly split over whether to re-elect Talent or replace him with McCaskill. That's little different from earlier polls. Of the 800 voters polled last week, 47 percent favored Talent and 47 percent preferred McCaskill. Two percent supported Libertarian Frank Gilmour, and 4 percent were undecided," writes political reporter Jo Mannies.

Here's a breakdown of the numbers:

*Both Talent and McCaskill hit the magic 50% mark in favorability ratings. McCaskill hits 51%. Talent is at 50%

*Talent wins men by 6 points; McCaskill wins women by 8 points.

*The battle remains for independent voters. They are split in this poll: McCaskill 46%, Talent 45%.

*McCaskill wins the youngest and oldest voters. Talent takes ages 30 through 59.

*McCaskill wins the St. Louis suburbs; Talent takes north and southeast parts of the state, as well as Southwest Missouri. Talent wins the Ozarks 58%-36%. These numbers are not where Democrats believe McCaskill needs to be in order to win. Winning 36% here would be an underperformance from her Governor's race.

*The top issue determining people's votes is Iraq (29%). That is followed by terrorism (20%). Avoiding tax increases and healthcare are tied at 11%.




The #135th: Denison Predicts Close Race; Hagan Runs As Dark Horse

With 10 days to go, both candidates for the #135th legislative district seat were pounding the pavement and knocking on doors, in a race that Rep. Charlie Denison says will probably be the closest of his career.

Democrat Nancy Hagan is challenging Denison for a district seat that represents a good portion of south Springfield.

"I'm so charged by this, so pumped up by this," Hagan said, as she walked door-to-door near Plainview Road Saturday afternoon. "I'm hearing what people are saying and they want change. How can you vote for your constituents if you don't hear them?"

Meanwhile, at the same time, Rep. Charlie Denison was campaigning on the eastern side of the district, near Greenwood Road.

"I think Ms. Hagan has worked very hard, so I think this will be the closest general I've ever had," Denison said.

Restoring MAWD

But Denison said the strength of Missouri's economy would help push him through to victory come election day. "People will realize that the state's economy been better than it's ever been, and that Southwest Missouri has been the driving force for new jobs," he said.

As Hagan hits the doors - she estimates close to 10,000 - she said she is hearing a different story. "People can't tell you who their state representative is. They are asking for change. They want to know about education and healthcare. I just knocked on a door, where a single mom was almost in tears because she can't afford health insurance for her little boy. She was a former student of mine. I just took her in my arms and hugged her," Hagan said.

When I revisited the Medicaid cuts with Denison, he acknowledged some went to far and promised changes next legislative session. "What we were trying to do is cut out the fraud, and things got cut out that shouldn't have been cut out," he said.

Denison promised that MAWD, a medical program for the working disabled, would be reinstated quickly. "I can assure you that we will take care of that within the first few months," Dension said.

Like most Democrats, Hagan called the cuts a mistake, and took aim at Denison for comments he made to KY3 News about the changes. "Anytime a legislator casts a vote and then says later, I wish I would've studied it more, like he did to KY3, he's not representing the people. I just stood there watching that and my jaw dropped. I'm going to do my research before I vote on any bill, I can promise you that," Hagan said.

Smaller Classes, Higher Salaries

A longtime educator in the district, Hagan's passion is education. She supports legislation to mandate class sizes, with younger grades having smaller sizes. She also proposes more funding for higher teacher salaries in order to stay competitive.

"We're 45th in teacher salaries. We have got to look at bringing that up statewide to continue to attract the best and brightest. I just don't know how people can go to small towns and teach," Hagan said.

She said she cringes when she hears politicians say they are fully funding education, when it won't be fully funded until 7 years from now. "I have a grandson in the fourth grade, that means he won't be getting the full dollars spent on him until he's a sophomore or junior in high school," Hagan said.

She vehemently opposes any type of private voucher proposal. She said it's one of the reasons she is running. "There are so many laws, rules and regulations public education has to follow that private schools do not have to. If we are going to give them money, they should have to comply to things like addressing special needs students. Because they don't right now. They send them to the R-12 schools to deal with," Hagan explained.

Denison said that while he was wary about the new school funding formula, it is working out well for schools. "The fact is that money was held over by Governor Holden. Our new school funding formula has put us in really good shape. We're in better shape than we were when we passed it. As you know, I had some problems with it, but it has worked well," Dension said.

Denison said he supports smaller class sizes, but opposes Hagan's plan to mandate them at the state level. "I don't think I can come in and mandate local schools do this. Let the local school districts decide. That's what I've been trying to do my full 2 years in the House, let local control decide," Denison said.

Eliminate Taxes, Deport Illegals

Completely eliminating the state tax on the social security earnings of seniors. That would be the top priority for Denison this next legislative session. "I hear a lot from seniors about the burden of taxes. We should get rid of this tax on earnings," he said.

Denison said he is also being flooded with e-mails about immigration. "A lot of people want us to crackdown. They don't want state money going to illegal foreigners in any way," Dension said.

When I asked him what could be done on the state level to address the issue, he said assisting in deportation would be a start. "If they aren't here legally, we need to get them out of here. Send them back where they came from," Denison said.

He said he would do that by passing a law allowing local law enforcement to take a greater role in combating illegals. "I just don't see there's any other way we can do it," Denison said.

Ballot Initiatives

Hagan said she supports the stem cell research ballot initiative and minimum wage hike, but remains undecided on the tobacco tax. "If I knew for sure where the money was going to go, I'd vote for it, but I remember the lottery money," she said.

Denison said he will vote "no" on all three major ballot initiatives. "I could never support cloning and that stem cell ballot initiative has 3,000 words in it amending the constitution. The legislature could never do anything with it," he explained.

In talking to businesses, he said he sees no advantage in raising the minimum wage. "It would hurt business and a lot of the ones I've been talking to, even McDonald's and Arby's, they start their people out at $8 to $10 dollars an hour," Denison said.

Denison said he also opposes the tobacco tax.

The Party Doesn't See It

For Hagan, this race has been uphill from the start. It's not just about being a challenger. It's about having financial backing from the party.

"It's been really tough for me that the party doesn't see it," Hagan said, referring to her chances at knocking of a Republican incumbent in a reliably G.O.P. district.

"They see Charlie Norr, Jamie Schoolcraft and of course Sara (Lampe) at 50%, and that's where the money goes," she said. "And we're talking money. You put it where you have the best chance to win, and I'm the long shot," Hagan said, as she laughs.

That's why Hagan has turned to such an aggressive door-to-door campaign. When I asked Hagan why voters should throw out a incumbent Republican for a new Democrat, she said it's all about planning.

"They will know I'm representing them. I will pledge weekly updates while we are in session, monthly updates when we are not in session, calls to constituents," Hagan said.

Seems like boilerplate stuff any legislator should be doing anyway.

But Hagan said she'd be more aggressive than Denison on constituent services, and present a vision for the district and state. "I think a lot of people go to Jefferson City, and they think about bills to be passed for this year, but they don't make it about 5 or 10 years down the road. I want to be that long-term person. I'd be a planner," Hagan said.

Despite the money and the odds, Hagan still thinks she has a shot at pulling off an upset in the #135th.

"I've been at 3 schools in this district, my husband has been at 5. It helps. They remember me and I remember their names, and they are voting for me. And some of these people are strong Republicans," Hagan said.

She said the 22% undecided vote will determine this race. In the final week of the campaign, she plans to hit those voters with mailings and phone calls.

A lifetime educator, Hagan is optimistic, but realistic.

"Oh, if I win, it'd be a huge upset. I know I'm a long shot," she said. "I'm the dark horse."

How Reliable Are Polls?

The Wall Street Journal has a great piece on the reliability of polls just 10 days from an election.

The conventional wisdom is that Nov. 7th will be a win for Democrats. But remember 2004 when President Bush was buried by the punditry? It's a valuable lesson for politicos. This story is a great read, and should be a sobering one for Democrats before they pop their champagne corks.

Keep these bullet points in mind:

*Up to a quarter of voters don't decide whom they'll vote for until the week before an election, according to Republican pollster Bill McInturff. As many as 8% don't decide until Election Day.

*Most polls depend on land-line phones, but one in 10 adults now has only a cellular telephone. That poses a potential sampling problem.

*What might change in the final days? A lot. A key factor is voter turnout, which is hard to predict.

Sunday NYT: It's All About Turnout in Missouri, But Some Say Stop Calling

The New York Times reports in its Sunday edition that both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the battle to control Congress will come down to 20 House and 3 Senate races.

The story, obtained via The Drudge Report, has a byline of Vinita Park, Mo. It notes that Democrats are working hard to match the legendary Republican get-out-the-vote machine, in places like Missouri.

To prove that we all make errors, the article mistakenly reports that Talent was elected in 2000. But hey, it happens.

But it also includes a quote from a volunteer making calls for Democrat Claire McCaskill, that shows some voters may be experiencing campaign overload.

The following are the graphs pertaining to Missouri:

"These other groups are calling: stem cell research, labor unions,” said Charlene Zeni Connolly, 57, a retired teacher who was making calls near here the other night on behalf of Claire McCaskill, the Democratic Senate candidate. “People are getting really irritated. They are saying if you call again, I won’t vote for her.”

For all that, evidence of new-found Democratic attention to getting out the vote, an area of politics where the party once dominated, was on display here and in other parts of the country this week as turnout operations, many in the making for nearly two years, began to unfold their final 10-day plans.

For two cold and rainy hours the other night, Brendan Fahey, 27, a two-time Iraq war veteran, led a team of three Democratic workers on a door-knocking mission through a trim, middle-class neighborhood of two-family brick homes in this city northwest of St. Louis. They careened from house to house — holding street maps and a computer-generated list of likely supporters gleaned from two years of market research, telephone calls and earlier visits — as they executed the final stages of a plan began when Democratic Party strategists opened offices here 15 months ago.


Through it all, Republicans have shown no sign of backing off, matching Democrats door for door and telephone for telephone. “Do you want a lawn sign?” Tom Applewhite, 20, a St. Louis University student working for Mr. Talent, asked a woman who answered a door near here after she promised that she would indeed vote for Mr. Talent.

Mr. Applewhite, who had guided a squad of Republican volunteers for a relatively early afternoon tour to avoid the misstep of upsetting St. Louis Cardinals fans by banging on the door in the middle of the World Series games, went to his red Chevrolet pickup and returned with a “Talent for Senate” sign.

Democrats, who have dutifully studied Republican successes in 2002 and 2004, have used consumer, demographic and polling data to predict the political leanings of infrequent voters. Here in Missouri, for example, canvassers are more likely to talk to single women about health care.

Because of Mr. Talent’s narrow victory last time, Republicans and Democrats landed here hard and early this campaign, and both sides think that is what will make the difference in a race that could well determine which party controls the Senate next year.

“They are proud of their turnout operation,” Ms. McCaskill said. “They think they have a machine-like operation in the Republican Party. They are just pouring money into it.”


Rasmussen: Talent Still Leads

Sen. Jim Talent is holding a small lead over Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill, as this hotly contested battleground race enters the final week and a half.

Sen. Jim Talent 48%
Claire McCaskill 46%

Talent leads by just 2 percentage points, according to a new Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters on October 25th. It still remains a toss-up for Rasmussen, but with "leaners," Talent hits the 50% mark.

"When leaners are added into the equation, Talent still leads McCaskill by two (50% to 48%). This is the first time that either candidate has reached the magic 50% level of voter support," reports Rasmussen.

"In an election where every vote will count, 44% say they're "certain" to vote for Talent, 4% probably will but aren't certain and 2% are leaning his way. Forty percent (40%) are sure they'll vote for McCaskill, 6% say they're likely to vote for her and 1% are leading in her direction."

Friday, October 27, 2006

McCaskill's Last Stand in the Ozarks

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Claire McCaskill will visit Springfield one more time before the election, in a final attempt to woo rural voters that could be key to her chances in 11 days.

According to a Democratic source, McCaskill will hold a rally in Springfield on Wednesday, Nov. 1st. The rally will take place at 4 p.m. in the Parkview High School auditorium.

McCaskill's final visit is scheduled just two days before President Bush's expected visit to Springfield, which was first reported right here on the KY3 Political Blog.

Champion: Harpool Tries to Distract Voters

Sen. Norma Champion says Doug Harpool is attempting to distract Springfield voters from his extensive voting record supporting higher taxes and bigger government.

The Champion campaign sent out an e-mail release titled: Harpool Tries to Distract Voters Friday evening.

The release calls Harpool's criticism of a Champion ad "desperate and hypocritical."

"His criticism of Senator Champion is a desperate reaction to an ad that exposes his irresponsible vote to send millions of tax dollars from hard-working Springfield families to St. Louis to fund their dome stadium," said Champion spokesman Mike Barnett.

"The ad is accurate and Harpool is trying to hide the truth that his liberal voting record is inconsistent with the values and interests of Springfield families," Barnett added.

The release says Harpool's record speaks for itself. "Harpool voted 51 times to raise taxes and fees totaling $600 million dollars. His liberal tax votes include raising gas taxes, personal property taxes without a vote from the people and sending hundreds of millions of dollars to St. Louis to build the dome," reads the release.

Meanwhile, the Harpool campaign is out with its latest DougTV ad, targeting Champion on legislation she has opposed. It's called, "She's Against It."

Mo. Senate Race: Cleaner Than Most

Yes, it's gotten tough, and at times negative.

But with 11 days before decision time, Missouri's U.S. Senate race has been cleaner and more issue-focused than most of the other hot contests around the country.

Yes, Claire McCaskill called Jim Talent "a false patriot." But she later apologized.
Yes, in a Talent radio ad, a veteran called McCaskill "a liar . . . and a cheat." But Talent said he didn't believe she was those things, and wouldn't use those words.

Talent's been accused of running some misleading ads about McCaskill's record on nursing homes. And the recent strategy of the G.O.P. has been to zone in on the finances of the auditor's husband. On the other side, many conservatives are crying foul over McCaskill's Michael J. Fox ad, which gained national attention for playing on raw emotion.

Still, these charges aren't dirty. They are mostly hardball politics, which play on themes like "character," and "emotion." Is any ad completely fair? Are they ever?

But the real question is are they over the line? Many politicos I've read and watched, have agreed they are not.

In a year when Tennessee's Senate race has gotten into a back and forth about race-baiting and Playboy parties, New Jersey's Senate race features an ad about corruption at the level of "The Sopranos" and Virginia's race is now focused on fictional sex scenes in a book between a son and his father . . . the Show-Me state isn't looking so down-n'dirty after all.

Then again, it's all relative.

Noonan: Some in G.O.P. Hope For a Loss

The eloquent conservative writer Peggy Noonan is out with an intriguing piece about whether a G.O.P. loss this November would bolster the party politically and philosophically in the future.

"Is There Progress Through A Loss,?" is the title.

She recalls her conversation with a Republican staffer, last year:

"I said I thought the Republicans would take it on the chin in 2006, and that would force the beginning of wisdom. She surprised me. She was after all a significant staffer giving all her energy to helping advance conservative ideas within the Congress. "Yes," she said, in a quiet, deadly way. As in: I can't wait. As in: We'll get progress only through loss," writes Noonan.

"This is two weeks ago, from a Bush appointee: "I hope they lose the House." And one week ago, from a veteran of two GOP White Houses: "I hope they lose Congress." Republicans this year don't say "we" so much. What is behind this? A lot of things, but here's a central one: They want to fire Congress because they can't fire President Bush."

KC Star: Urban Vote Could Tip Balance

The Ozarks has felt pretty special this election cycle, with both U.S. Senate candidates spending considerable time here. Sen. Jim Talent has made consistent stops to shore up his conservative base. Claire McCaskill has been here often because she admits she wasn't down here enough last time around.

"It's not that Claire didn't want to be in Springfield for the Governor's race, it's that she couldn't financially afford it. All the money is in St. Louis and Kansas City. It's the same way this time," one Democratic operative recently told me.

But the Kansas City Star now reports that the urban black vote could be the demographic that tips the balance in the Senate race.

"In the hard-fought Missouri Senate race, much of the publicity focuses on the candidates’ outstate outreach efforts. But the urban core also is important. Experts say that to win, McCaskill needs to roll up big margins — buttressed by big turnout — among black voters in Kansas City and St. Louis," writes Matt Stearns.

"McCaskill is expected to get by far the largest share of votes by African-Americans in Kansas City and St. Louis. But in Kansas City, inner-city turnout in midterm elections has always been problematic for Democrats. It typically runs several percentage points below the St. Louis turnout."

Video: Champion vs. Harpool on Healthcare

My KY3 News @ 10 report on the debate between Sen. Norma Champion and Democratic challenger Doug Harpool focused on the issue of the rising cost of healthcare.

You can watch it HERE.

Who is Mike Holzknecht?

He's apparently running for the District 28 State Senate seat against Sen. Delbert Scott.

He's an independent. But he's got enough money to be running television ads on KY3, (which I'm told ain't cheap.) And yes, that's what caught my eye. Somebody else who has seen his ads then asked me who he was. I couldn't tell them. But now I can tell you.

The 49-year-old Holzknecht is from Stockton and was appointed Hickory County Prosecutor by Governor John Ashcroft in 1988.

Holzknecht is now apparently a disillusioned conservative, eager to take on his party.

This is the message on his website . . .

"I am running against a 20-year incumbent Republican state senator who has loyally followed the Republican party line during the last ten years while a "corporate takeover" has engulfed our former party of principle. (There is no Democrat on the ballot for this Senate seat). Now big business calls the shots. Tobacco, pharmaceutical, insurance, big oil, and even the multi-billion dollar gambling industries wield the power in Jefferson City and within our Republican Party. Because I cannot follow the current party leadership in this regard, I am running as the Independent Candidate for State Senator."

Now I understand why I've been seeing so many Delbert Scott TV ads as well.

Wolf Blitzer Interviews Claire on Ads

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Claire McCaskill appeared with Wolf Blitzer on CNN today. The topic . . . negative ads. Here's what went down:

BLITZER: As you look at this, the reaction from Jim Talent, your opponent, was basically that you know what? He supports stem cell research, but not necessarily the way you do it. He says, "Claire McCaskill's attacks are false. Senator Talent supports medical research, including stem cell research, that doesn't involve cloning or destroying human embryos."
First of all, do you support cloning as part of your stem cell program?
MCCASKILL: No, of course not. The measure the Missourians are going to vote on that I support and that Senator Talent opposes strictly prohibits human cloning and the commercialization of the marketing of women's eggs for purposes of research.
What it does say is that we are not going to criminalize research that can save lives. And I support it. And Senator Talent opposes it. And that's why Mr. Fox has been -- has reached out to our campaign and said that he wanted to help.
BLITZER: He also said you support destroying human embryos.
MCCASKILL: Well human embryos are thrown away every day, Wolf, thousands of them. And if we are throwing them away, and that is not criminal, why wouldn't we use them to save lives, especially under a strict ethical framework that this measure will provide?
And this is not about public money. This is just making sure that the scientists that are working with private endowments in Missouri will never be made criminals such as the legislation that Senator Talent supported in the Senate, he sponsored in the Senate, to, in fact, make certain forms of this research criminal.
BLITZER: The actress Patricia Heaton from "Everyone Loves Raymond," she has got a commercial that is being put out by a group calls Missourians against Human Cloning. It's called the "Clone Me State," this commercial. I want to play a little clip of what she charges.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PATRICIA HEATON, "EVERYBODY LOVES RAYMOND: Amendment two actually makes it a constitutional right for fertility clinics to pay women for eggs. Low-income women will be seduced by big checks. And extracting donor eggs is an extremely complicated, dangerous and painful procedure.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right. Do you want to respond? Because you support amendment two and she says it's going to lead to all of these horrible things.
MCCASKILL: Well, it's just not true. It strictly prohibits that. Right now, women could sell their eggs. They can't if this measure passes. And I think, frankly, what she said is, frankly, insulting to low-income women.
BLITZER: The race is very, very close right now. And as it gets closer and closer, and certainly only 12 days away, some of the ads are getting very nasty. I'm going to play this ad that goes after you. It's put out by the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Claire McCaskill needs help. She's misplaced some of her income in Bermuda. Claire McCaskill and her husband have misplaced their income so they don't have to play taxes, yet she wants to raise yours.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right. Do you want to respond to that? Because it suggests that you put money in Bermuda in tax shelters and that you want to go ahead, instead of lowering taxes for people in Missouri, you want to raise their taxes.
MCCASKILL: Well, certainly, this is the same ad company that's making the ads in Tennessee that are so out of bounds, making the ads other places. The Republicans have decided this year since the issues are not on their side to try to make this personal. There's no income that's being sheltered anywhere. Senator Talent knows that.
My husband owns a very small percentage of a re-insurance company that insures 43,000 units a year and has paid $32 million in claims. It has nothing to do -- and our disclosure shows that we are not getting income off of it.
But that's not the point. For them, it's about a personal character attack. We are not doing that. We are just talking about changing Washington, changing the mess in Iraq, changing healthcare. But they are trying to make this race intensely personal. And I think the voters are figuring it out, and I trust Missourians to definitely figure it out.

The Fox Ad Fallout Impact on Talent

Will the national controversy over Michael J. Fox's ad for Claire McCaskill and the comments made by Rush Limbaugh hurt Sen. Jim Talent's chances at retaining his seat?

Conservative Joe Scarborough on MSNBC took up the issue on his show tonight.

"Tonight, Michael J. Fox, which we showed you, went on Katie Couric, "The CBS Evening News With Katie Couric." This has been on our show. It`s been on every show. It was on the "Today" show, reaching seven, eight, nine million people. All of a sudden, you have a single ad and a controversy which Rush Limbaugh -- he`s defending himself every day, but every day he does, he gins up the controversy more and more, and that`s bad news. That means Republican candidate Jim Talent is having to answer this on the campaign trail. Quite likely, he`s going to lose Missouri because of it, and many political analysts have long said Missouri could be the tipping point to make Harry Reid the next leader of the U.S. Senate. What do Republicans do, if anything, to turn this terrible controversy around?," Joe Scarborough asked on his MSNBC program.

PAT BUCHANAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, look, I`m not sure. I think Michael J. Fox is now making a mistake cussing out Rush and getting into a battle with them because then it descends to a case of politics, left wing and right wing. Secondly, I do not know, Joe, how Talent has handled this, but what he ought to do is cut himself loose from the Michael J. Fox-Rush battle, the way the fellow in Tennessee, Corker, has effectively said, I wish they`d pull down the ad, it`s got nothing to do with me...

SCARBOROUGH: So are you saying Talent needs to attack Rush Limbaugh?
BUCHANAN: That who needs to?
SCARBOROUGH: Does Rush Limbaugh -- does Jim Talent...
BUCHANAN: No, no, no!
SCARBOROUGH: ... the Missouri candidate, need to attack Rush Limbaugh?
BUCHANAN: No. He just says, Look, I don`t think he should have said that about Michael J. Fox. Let`s move on. Get out of the argument and let Rush and Fox get in the argument. This is what Corker is doing in Tennessee.

A Debate Afterall, Champion vs. Harpool

After all the back and forth, a debate did occur between Sen. Norma Champion and Democratic challenger Doug Harpool at Glendale High School Thursday.

It was a civil discussion between the candidates about clear differences on issues for over an hour. It was also a balancing act for Harpool, as the underdog challenger, of how far to go to crystallize those differences, and how tough to be in doing so.

The candidates were at first supposed to stand at podiums. But after some last minute maneuvering, including a request by the Champion campaign to not stand, the candidates agreed to sit down at a table on stage.

I would've enjoyed follow-ups. But for a debate that noone could land, and that the Champion campaign apparently never specifically agreed to . . . I'll take it :)

Many of these issues in the debate have been addressed in previous posts, others have not. Either way, here's a roundup of the ground covered: (Answers are paraphrased and edited for clarity and brevity.)

STEM CELL AMENDMENT
Champion - NO, "It's too soon to put it in the Constitution. There's no oversight. It takes the legislature out of the process. We need to move slowly."
Harpool - YES, "I believe in the hope for cures to diseases. I don't think it is appropriate for government to tell science they can't pursue research when other states will."

TOP ISSUE FACING TEENS
Champion - Education. "It gives families a chance at success. Under Gov. Holden, the government was withholding education dollars. Not anymore." Also favors counseling, mentoring programs so students can transition to jobs. Supports virtual schools.
Harpool - The cost of going to college. "It's up 56% in the past 5 years. It's unfair and inappropriate to put that kind of burden on our students." Addiction to meth and safety are also top issues.

TOBACCO TAX
Champion - NO, "It's a tax increase. It's not earmarked for any specific use. The tobacco settlement wasn't used correctly. A tax increase is not the solution."
Harpool - YES, "I support the measure. I was not there when the tobacco settlement funding was used appropriately. Senator Champion was. It can be part of the solution to the healthcare problem. Our tobacco tax is much lower than other states. Years ago, Greene County voters supported something similar. If I was a Senator, I would not impose it, but I am personally in favor of it."

MINIMUM WAGE INCREASE
Champion - NO, "I'd prefer a minimum wage hike at the federal level, so it impacts surrounding states the same way. I have a problem with the consumer price index connected to it. Imagine it going up 3.1% to 3.5% every year. It's too sweeping."
Harpool - YES, "A person on minimum wage right now has to work 52 weeks to pay the average premium of $11,000. That leaves that person no money for anything else. It's shocking that we even have to submit this to the people and that the legislature couldn't even come to agreement on a modest increase."

PUBLIC EDUCATION FUNDING
Champion - "We need to fund it. Funding has been withheld before. This Governor promised not to do that. We have a good formula for Springfield. It's based on per pupil. It gives $2.2 million dollars more to the area. It's fully funded over 7 years."
Harpool - "It doesn't matter what formula we use for education if we don't put enough money in to fund it. We are hundreds of millions of dollars behind. Our teachers are the 45th lowest paid in the nation. We need to reallocate money from other programs, not 7 years from now, but tomorrow. We also have to protect our public money from private school vouchers. That would create a 2-tier system."

PRIVATE SCHOOL VOUCHERS
Champion - "I do not support school vouchers that take a penny of money out of education funding. I think first we need to strengthen our public schools."
Harpool - "With all due respect Senator Champion, in front of the League of Women voters two nights ago, you said you supported tax credits for private schools. Tax credits do take tax money away from our public schools."

BAN ON MINORS IN BARS
Champion- "This is a city issue. I have a philosophy that I don't take positions on city issues or federal issues. But I do think the city council should pursue an alternative."
Harpool - "I'm a dad with 3 kids. I can't go to sleep until they pull into the driveway and are at home and safe. I know there has to be alternatives for minors that do not include a drinking scene. It's unfortunate we haven't done that. But I will cast a vote in favor of the ban, even though it's politically unpopular and not what you want to hear."

STRAIGHT-TICKET VOTING ELIMINATED
Champion - "I hadn't really thought about the impact of it. I think it does improve the system. I like so it so you have to vote for each individual candidate.
Harpool - "Why did we abolish straight ticket voting in the first place? If someone wants to vote straight ticket, why should some politicians tell them they can't? This is just like the voter I.D. bill and abolishing the limits on campaign contributions. This is about a party using the state house for politics. Because of this, it will take a long longer to cast a vote. That may cause longer lines at the polls and that may cause some not to wait to cast a ballot. I'm for a more open process. I'd let anyone vote on a Saturday before the election if they wanted."

ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
Champion - "I believe we need to support as little government as we need to get by with. The number one priority should be education."
Harpool - "Government should empower people. The problem is the lobbyists in Jefferson City are giving people lots of money. Government should be a parachute, a safety net. It should not give one business a tax break over another."

HEALTHCARE/MEDICAID
Champion - "I stand firmly on we need Medicaid reforms and we need them immediately. As soon as the session resumes, that's one of the things we're going to be working on. We could raise taxes a billion dollars or we could reform the system, but we had to get money for our top priority, which was education. We still spend more money on social services than we do education. We still have over 900,000 people in the state on Medicaid. I want to push individual responsibility and sharing in the cost."
Harpool - "The Medicaid cuts were a mistake. They did the wrong thing, at the wrong time. If there was a problem with Medicaid, they should've fixed Medicaid. Those people are not still getting healthcare and those of us who have health insurance are paying for them. And we're paying more than we would've paid if we'd used our tax dollars to take care of them. There's been a lot of talk about withholdings. I want you to know that this Senator and other Senators were overspending their budget on personnel on the very day Governor Holden withheld money from our schools and caused teachers to laid off at Glendale, Parkview and Kickapoo. The Medicaid cuts were a mistake and should've been reversed. There's been a 61% increase in healthcare premiums. We've got to take care of healthcare costs, not merely ignore the fact people need to be able to get healthcare."

GAY MARRIAGE
Champion - "The voters supported a constitutional change to same sex marriage. I support their decision."
Harpool - "I would vote no on allowing gay marriage, and I'd base that on the vote 2 years ago. The people spoke. It would be wrong to overrule the people."

ENERGY
Champion - "I support the 10% ethanol bill passed in the legislature."
Harpool - "I voted for ethanol back in 1986. We had oil lobbyists telling us in the halls to vote no. A lot of other people weren't looking forward back then. But I don't believe ethanol is the only solution to our problem. We are going to need better fuel standards for some cars ultimately."

VOTER I.D. REQUIREMENT
Champion - "It's good and reasonable to require voters to have photographs. It helps with fair and open elections."
Harpool - "I was opposed to the bill in Missouri. It was much more restrictive than other measures around the country. Other states delayed it, we put it into effect this election. The right to vote was impaired for about 300,000 Missourians. Since a fraud allegation in 2000, I know of no other voter fraud allegations. It's no secret that this was meant to disenfranchise voters."

ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Champion - "I want to empower law enforcement to be able to enforce federal laws. I don't think the federal government is taking the right steps. There is nothing we can do if we arrest somebody. We also need to work to crack down on businesses who hire illegals. I heard of a contractor using state tax credits while hiring illegals. That needs to stop."
Harpool - "I'm not in favor of diverting the Highway Patrol to crackdown on illegals. I'd rather have them pursuing other crimes. If the Highway Patrol finds them now, they can turn them over, and they can be detained and deported. We need to keep the focus on our state. If we give more money to this, it has to come from education and healthcare. We need to keep our focus on the big picture."

MAKING COLLEGE MORE AFFORDABLE
Champion - "We have been working to get more equitable funding for our schools. We got more money for SMS, but it isn't enough. The MOHELA plan will help with capital improvements. It won't hurt loans. We have got to have equipment and buildings. This will help. I also want to help strengthen the Coordinating Board."
Harpool - "We can reduce duplications in a lot of these programs. Our colleges are underfunded. We need to cut Senator's salaries and Senator's staff in order to better fund our schools. We have to support low-cost student loans. We have to make sure this MOHELA deal doesn't dry up the money for students."

DEATH PENALTY
Champion - "I support it."
Harpool - "The death penalty by lethal injection has been ruled unconstitutional. I support that. I support the death penalty, but not for juveniles or people with mental disabilities."

THE METH EPIDEMIC
Champion - "It's a bigger problem in Southwest Missouri than anywhere else and it is connected to child abuse. The anti-meth bill I passed helped reduce meth labs by 52%. We also want to look at an electronic system between pharmacies. The Children in Crisis legislation I sponsored also helped me get funding and services in special areas. Now we have to deal with the problem that the meth is coming from Mexico."
Harpool - "We have to help law enforcement deal with this. I'd like to establish some type of Tips network, a hotline for people to call about potential meth houses. Too often, people dealing with meth are violent and people are afraid to cooperate and report it. Also, monitoring children is key. Children of meth frequently show signs of abuse and neglect."

After closing statements, Champion and Harpool received brief applause.
There was no handshake between the two. Just a quick comment from Champion to Harpool about whether he will get to keep the toy donkey positioned in front of him on the table. Then, Sen. Champion whisked passed Harpool across the stage.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

The Source: Spfld Schools Step Over Line

The conservative blog, "The Source," is criticizing the Springfield Public Schools for asking local legislative candidates to fill out surveys.

"Why would they send out a legislative survey to all candidates running for re-election?
The fact that they did so is not even the most disturbing part; rather, the content of the survey and the questions that were asked fill that role. There is such an obvious liberal slant to the questions that it paints conservative candidates of any breed into an impossible situation," writes The Source.


The answers of the candidates who returned the surveys to the district were published in this previous blog post.

The post says school administrators will use the surveys to attack conservative candidates in an "off-the-record fashion," because of the content of the questions.

"It’s nothing more than a ridiculous abuse of power, and should be treated as such. The Springfield Public School District’s leadership needs to learn how to get its’ nose out of elections and back in the education of our children," writes The Source.



Weekly Standard: Fox Ad Isn't Telling Whole Truth

The Weekly Standard is now taking Michael J. Fox to task for his World Series ad on support for a stem cell research ballot initiative.

Writer Ryan Anderson notes that Sen. Jim Talent has supported increased funding for scientific stem cell research that doesn't involve the destruction of a human embryo.

"And it is worth mention that Missouri has a bill on the State ballot that would allow the cloning of human beings and then require their destruction prior to gestation," writes Anderson.

"These ads are repulsive. They play on the hopes and fears of million of Americans who are suffering from debilitating diseases, are caring for loved ones, and yearn for something, anything, to hold onto. They manipulate the public's emotions in the worst imaginable ways, promising them cures that are, in fact, quite uncertain, and pressuring them to forgo their own ethical convictions," Anderson writes.

Arkansas Democrats Poised to Sweep

Yes, Arkansas is in our viewing area too.

And while most of our attention is locked on Missouri, our friends down in Arkansas look to be on the verge of electing a Democratic Governor.

Arkansas Democrats are getting poised for a statewide sweep come election day, according to a new set of polls out by SurveyUSA.

In an election in Arkansas today, Democrats would win in contests for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Attorney General, according to SurveyUSA.

Governor
(D)Mike Beebe 58%
(R) Asa Hutchinson 38%

Beebe's lead has grown from 15 to 20 points in the last four weeks.

This poll was taken between Oct. 22-Oct. 24 of 572 likely Arkansas voters. It has a margin of error of +/-4%.

The Hotline: Talent 5th Most Vulnerable Incumbent

The Democrats need 6 seats to regain control of the United States Senate. The Hotline's Chuck Todd ranks the most vulnerable U.S. Senate contests. It lists Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana and Rhode Island as the top four most vulnerable incumbent seats. Democrats believe realistically they can win all four.

Then, things get schticky.

#5
MISSOURI
Jim Talent (R)
Last Ranking: 5
McCaskill has survived a heck of an onslaught. There's more to come, but one wonders if she's developed some Teflon. As for Talent, he's doing everything he can to win and probably has made the fewest mistakes of any embattled Senate Republican. The fact that this is still a dead heat has to worry the GOP. Tip Sheet

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Stem Cell Ad War: Fox vs. Suppan

Dueling political ads on the stem cell ballot initiative are using star power to evoke emotion and gain national attention.

Watch my KY3 News @ 10 report HERE.

Glendale: It's A Debate, Harpool: It's a Debate, Champion: It's Not a Debate

The debate over the debate continues.

David Woodruff, a Democratic campaign adviser for State Senate candidate Doug Harpool, says he believes Thursday's meeting between Sen. Norma Champion and Harpool "is a debate."

"The high school students believe it's a debate. Doug Harpool believes it's a debate. Norma Champion's the only one who thinks it's not a debate," Woodruff said.

In a wide-ranging interview Monday, Sen. Champion said she didn't agree to any debates with Harpool because "they are a waste of time."

But a Glendale High School debate team that organized the Champion-Harpool face-off says they are considering their event a debate.

When I asked Champion why she would not agree to a debate with Harpool, she said voters "are sick of them." "You can talk to anyone about the Talent-McCaskill debates, they said they didn't learn anything. They are not very useful. They set up a platform for one candidate to distract attention to another candidate. They get to be name-calling kinds of things," Champion said.

Harpool promised he would not call Champion any kinds of names. "I'm an issue-oriented person," Harpool said. "I'm not going to call her a liar and a cheat the way Sen. Talent did to Claire McCaskill. I'm not going to do that. I'm going to ask her why she voted the way she did,"
he said.

Champion said she believes candidate forums are more informative. "I think the debates, the way they've been handled, I think they are a waste of time. I don't see any advantage for me to have a debate."

Maia Tagami, the vice-president of the Glendale student political debate club organizing the event, said five student panelists will ask both candidates 14 questions. "It has the foundation of a debate. We'll ask questions and give each candidate 2 minutes to respond and then have follow-ups," Tagami said.

Tagami said the questions will focus on the November ballot issues, a proposed city ban on minors in bars, Medicaid, rising tuition costs and same sex marriage. "It's set up to be more of a discussion, but both will be on a stage facing student panelists," Tagami said.

When I asked Tagami whether the questions were given to the candidates in advance, she said they were, at the request of Sen. Champion. "I know she was reluctant to agree to it in the first place, but we're really excited about it," Tagami said.

Tagami said because they are expecting such a large crowd the venue for the face-off has been changed to the Glendale High School Auditorium. "It's really exciting because it's a big race," Tagami said. "We're expecting a large crowd and it's great because we want to show that teenagers do care about politics and issues."

So here's the rundown one more time:
Champion vs. Harpool
Thursday, Oct. 26th
Glendale High School Auditorium
3:15-4:30 p.m.

Good for these kids.

Apparently, the Glendale students were able to pull off organizing a State Senate debate, when noone else -- including us here at KY3 -- could.

Major kudos to the students at Glendale and the teachers and staff supporting them in this effort.

EXCLUSIVE: Bush to Stump for Talent in Springfield, Planning at Expo Center Underway

I just got done reporting on KY3 News @ 5 that plans are underway for President Bush to rally in Springfield for Sen. Jim Talent on Friday, Nov. 3rd.

***WATCH OUR EXCLUSIVE REPORT HERE***

A worker from the Springfield Expo Center confirmed to me that they are "planning for a presidential visit." She could offer no further details.

Two Republican sources tell me that the President plans to fly in Thursday evening and stump for Sen. Talent at a rally on Friday, Nov. 3rd, just four days before election day.

Champion Campaign: It's Not a Debate

Sen. Norma Champion's campaign says a scheduled meeting at Glendale High School tomorrow between Champion and Democrat Doug Harpool is not a debate.

"We want to be clear this is not a debate," said Champion spokesman Mike Barnett.

The Springfield Public Schools had announced that Glendale High School was hosting a debate between Champion and Harpool in the school library between 3:15 and 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

A release billed it a "debate," being held by a student political debate club.

But Barnett said it will not be a debate.

"Sen. Champion will meet with students in a forum format, but this will not be a debate. They didn't ask for a debate. We have it in writing that they asked for a forum," said Barnett.

What's the difference?

"It won't be a back and forth with rebuttals. I'm not exactly sure the confusion, but the word debate may mean something different to you and me than it does for them," Barnett said.

"Sen. Champion will express her views, but not get into a back and forth. This will be a candidate forum, much like the 15 other we have done during this campaign cycle," Barnett added.

Champion has repeatedly denied requests to debate on KY3.

Hmm, we knew something was fishy when we heard "debate."

Developing . . .

BREAKING: President Bush to Visit Springfield Nov. 3rd

***BREAKING***

President Bush will visit Springfield, Mo. just four days before the election to hold a rally for Sen. Jim Talent, according to a Republican source and a local law enforcement official.

A G.O.P source says he has heard directly about the visit from the Missouri Republican Party, the Republican National Committee and the Talent campaign.

The President is expected speak at the Expo Center in Springfield Friday, Nov. 3rd, according to a G.O.P. source. Local law enforcement has been told to prepare for a Presidential visit and a Republican source tells me that Secret Service agents have been in Springfield over the last four days preparing for a visit.

Details about the time of the President's speech will be ironed out in a conference call with Talent campaign officials tomorrow.

This story is fluid and still developing . . .

Champion Denies Voucher Support; Harpool Says She's "Lost" In Senate

Sen. Norma Champion says her ability to help get Missouri State's name change passed as well as a bill for children in crisis exemplifies her willingness to stand up to power and use her leverage in the State Senate.

Democratic State Senate challenger Doug Harpool's most biting charge against Champion is that she lacks independence and is "lost in the Senate."

"On the last day of the session, we only passed 3 bills," Champion told me in an interview. "When the voter I.D. bill was passed, the Democrats were very unhappy about that and they started doing a slowdown, a filibuster, if you will. They stepped back so I could get my bill passed on children in crisis. That doesn't happen unless you work cooperatively with all in the legislature," she added.

Harpool lists education as just one issue where Champion has failed to deliver, because she lacks the stature and clout the third most populated city should have. "The education funding for Springfield is far from an accomplishment, and nearly a disaster for the people of Springfield," he said. "We are hundreds of millions of dollars behind where we should be on education funding."

Harpool charges that she voted against fully funding education, and instead voted in favor of maintaining "several special interest projects in lieu of that."

"We're moving into more funding every year," Champion responded. "It takes awhile to catch up. You can't over night fund everything you need. We have made it a top priority. We are not withholding funds from education."

A current Champion ad notes she helped bring $3.9 million dollars in new money to Springfield Public Schools. But in our interview, Champion said she believed the number was actually $2.9 million.

Harpool also takes aim at Champion for supporting a plan that would divert public money to private schools. "That does more damage than anything she could've possibly done for education," she said.

In our interview, Champion said she does not support private vouchers for public school students. But according to a Missouri Catholic survey, she indicated she supports tax deductions for private school families.

When I asked Harpool why the Democratic solution to education always seems to be more money, he said that wasn't true.

"More money is not always the solution in education," he said. "But if Norma Champion is going to brag about the money she's brought to Springfield, she's failed."

He notes that with a $1.3 billion dollar budget increase, just $170 million more dollars were devoted to education.

"The real issue is not the funding. It's the voucher she supports," he said.

"I'm finding that what Senator Champion tells people of Springfield is very different than how she votes in Jefferson City and very different from what she tells the lobbyists in Jefferson City," he added.

CHATTER Links Video of Champion at Forum

Ron Davis of Chatter, an enthusiastic supporter of Democratic State Senate candidate Doug Harpool, has linked some YouTube video of Sen. Norma Champion at last night's League of Women Voter's Forum.

Sen. Champion was asked why she voted to lift campaign finance limits. She said she didn't, but she voted for the bill. She was also asked why she voted against a bill strengthening the child kidnapping law. Champion said she couldn't remember.

I was planning on covering the forum and was disappointed I couldn't make it because of another assignment. But that's what happens when murder charges drop in the Ozarks.

So, supposedly, there is some sort of debate between Champion and Harpool tomorrow at Glendale High School. I thought they couldn't agree to a debate? Champion told us Monday that she didn't agree to any debates because she doesn't think they are useful. She said she only would participate in candidate forums.

Confused?

I am.

SurveyUSA: Stem Cell Support Erodes

Support for a constitutional amendment to protect various forms of stem cell research is eroding less than two weeks before election day, according to a new SurveyUSA poll.

AMENDMENT 2
45% 'Certain' Yes
36% 'Certain' No
18% Not Certain


Amendment 2 still has more support than opposition but some demographic groups are shifting their position on the measure and a significant 18% remain undecided. SurveyUSA calls the measure "too volatile and too unpredictable" to forecast.

Twelve days ago, in an identical SurveyUSA poll, Amendment 2 passed, 57% 'Certain' to vote Yes, 27% 'Certain' to vote No. Since then, 'Certain Yes' is down to 45%, 'Certain No' is up to 36%; a 30-point cushion on 10/12 is today a 9-point cushion. Among males, the Amendment had passed by 49 points on 10/12. Today, it passes by 6, a 43-point swing. Among voters age 35 to 49, opposition to the Amendment has doubled from a SurveyUSA poll on 9/14. Among affluent voters, the Amendment passed by 35 points on 10/12, passes by 2 points today, a 33-point swing. In Central MO, the Amendment had passed by 32 points, now is defeated by 6, a 38-point swing.

Complete crosstab numbers on the Senate race and the stem cell amendment can be found HERE.

SurveyUSA: Talent Takes Back Lead

3 is the magic number.

Sen. Jim Talent has retaken the lead over Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill by three points, due in part, to a newly energized conservative base, according to a poll taken by SurveyUSA.

Sen. Jim Talent 48%
Claire McCaskill 45%
Undecided 5%

The poll was taken between October 21-23 of 630 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.

It is a dramatic swing from a SurveyUSA poll taken two weeks ago that showed McCaskill ahead by 9 points. This is a significant 12-point swing towards Talent.

Here is the explanation:

Two things are simultaneously at work: In the 10/12 poll, 32% of Likely Voters identified themselves as Republican. Today, 38% do. Republicans appear newly energized in this contest, in part driven by the forces at work on Amendment 2, separate analysis to follow. Second, in the 10/12 poll, McCaskill led by 13 points among Independent voters. Today, Independents are tied at 41%. The number of "undecided" Independents has doubled since the 10/12 poll, and the number of Independents voting for Libertarian Frank Gilmour has doubled since the 10/12 poll. In the Ozark Region, Talent led by 6 on 10/12. Today Talent leads by 36, a 30-point swing to the Republican. In rural Central Missouri, McCaskill led by 16 on 10/12. Today, Talent leads by 8, a 24-point swing to the Republican. The St. Louis and Kansas City regions continue to favor McCaskill. There is other movement: Talent had trailed among whites, now leads. Talent had trailed among the youngest voters, now leads.

A 30-point swing in the Ozarks? That seems like a hell of a swing in just a couple of weeks. Is it possible one of these polls was poorly sampled?

The poll also shows the relationship between the U.S. Senate race and the constitutional amendment to protect stem cell research:

On 10/12, McCaskill led by 44 points among voters who were certain to vote "Yes" on Amendment 2. Today, McCaskill leads by 38 points among the "Certain Yes" voters. But: the size of the "Certain Yes" group has shrunk from 57% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 45%. On 10/12, Talent led by 68 points among voters who were certain to vote "No" on Amendment 2. Today, Talent leads by 56 points among the "Certain No" voters. But: the size of the "Certain No" group has grown from 27% of Likely Voters on 10/12 to today 36% of Likely Voters

Finally, there is this:

Last, an imponderable: On 10/21/06, the first day of the field period for this survey, McCaskill began airing a TV commercial that featured the actor Michael J Fox, who suffers from Parkinson's disease. There is no way to estimate, or even guess at, whether this advertisement had an impact on the numbers that SurveyUSA reports today. SurveyUSA will make note, however, that the interviews for a competing poll released today by Mason-Dixon, which show McCaskill ahead by 3 points, were completed on 10/19, before the Michael J Fox advertisement aired. It is unclear if the airing of the Fox ad is entirely coincidental to the movement observed here by SurveyUSA, or if there is some relationship. Many other factors were simultaneously at work in Missouri, including a tougher, more aggressive stance taken by Talent in his debate appearances with McCaskill, and advertisements taken out by Talent attacking McCaskill. Those factors acknowledged, Talent did better day-by-day in this survey, from Minus 1 on Saturday 10/21, to Plus 5 on Sunday 10/22, to Plus 7 on Monday 10/23. When the 3 days of interviewing are averaged, Talent is up 3 points, which are the results SurveyUSA presents here.