One Week Away: The INSIDERS Poll

One week from election day, I bring to you the Decision 2006 Insiders Poll.

This is a compilation of insight from interviews with local Republican and Democratic leaders, strategists and campaign operatives about what will happen on Election Day before it actually does. These are NOT endorsements. This is a political playbook. The focus is on the local Springfield legislative races. I spoke with around a dozen of some of the most plugged in politicos and granted them anonymity to give them the freedom to talk candid about the true chances and fortunes of candidates in their own party. The ratings are based on their insights, anecdotes, polling information and historic trends.

So now, without further ado, here's the KY3 Decision 2006 Insiders Poll.

State Senate District #30
(R) Sen. Norma Champion
(D) Doug Harpool
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
Doug Harpool has an uphill battle at unseating Aunt Norma, but there is some indication that he's gaining traction with one week to go. One Democrat tells me that Harpool has narrowed the polling deficit with Champion "to single digits, just outside the margin of error." It may be one of the reasons the Champion campaign decided to go on the attack this week, with ads targeting Harpool on a vote to fund a St. Louis stadium. "Someone in her camp sees this race tightening," offers a loyal Republican. "But I just can't believe Champion won't win this thing." One Republican has questions about Champion's age and health. "I know her eyesight is very, very bad. A few people have said she just does what people tell her to do, but I don't know if I believe that." The same Republican says she likes the stadium ad targeting Harpool, but admits it seems ill-timed with the Cardinals winning the World Series. Another Republican says Champion is in "good shape" when loyal Democrats like attorney Tom Strong hold fundraisers for her. "The name change has helped her in support and fundraising," notes a Republican. A Democrat predicts the race will be within a few thousand votes either way. "It's a longshot for us, but if we get a wave turnout, we've got an outside shot," he says. Another politico observes: "You'll see more spent on this race this weekend, than the job pays."

State House District #134
(R) Rep. Jim Viebrock
(D) Christopher Brown
Rating: Safe Republican Retention
"The only question here is if Viebrock wins with 60% or 70%," jokes one Democrat. "He's not the most dynamic legislator, but he's better than the alternative," says a Republican operative. "This district is Republican territory. The only battle was in the primary."

State House District #135
(R) Rep. Charlie Denison
(D) Nancy Hagan
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
Demographically, this is one of the most Republican districts in the entire state. It's expected to be a win for Rep. Denison, but some are questioning how easy a win it will be. "We've got an outside chance at this race just because Nancy is known and working hard, and there was some rift in the G.O.P. primary with Denison and Dunn," says one longtime Springfield Democrat. "Hagan has lots of signs up and being a teacher helps," offers one north Springfield Republican. "But that would be the stunner of the night if we lost." One Democrat campaign operative predicts Denison will hold on, but barely, "just because she was not impressive." Another Dem calls it closer than expected, but admits, "if she wins, it's a big night for us."

State House District #136
(R) Rep. B.J. Marsh
(D) James Owen
Rating: Leans Republican Retention
One Democratic operative says the party's latest internal poll has Marsh leading Owen by 7 to 10 points. But he also sees momentum towards Owen, just because of his energy. "This should be safe, but B.J.'s been snuck up on and beaten before, like in 1992. I can see that shaping up this year," the Democrat says. "Owen has walked the district almost twice, B.J. hasn't done much." Another Democratic strategist disagrees. He believes Owen blew this race early when he failed to exploit Marsh's poor attendance record. "Owen spent too much money too early, and he missed hitting B.J. on not being there. But B.J's a moderate. The Democrats could do a lot worse than B.J. Marsh," he says. A Republican predicts B.J. will win handily. "B.J. always just does his own thing and it's worked for him in the past."

State House District #137 - OPEN SEAT
(R) Dan Scott
(D) Charlie Norr
Rating: Leans Democratic Pick-Up
"We are well-positioned to win this seat, if our people come out," says a Democratic official close to the campaign. This is a battle for Rep. Mark Wright, an open seat in a district that is one of the poorest in the state, and leans Democratic. "The problem is our voters haven't come out in the past. But with the Medicaid cuts and the minimum wage, we believe they are coming out this time. According to internal Democratic surveys, Norr is ahead and polling over 50% in the district. "Dan Scott is a nice guy, but he's probably a little to slick for this district. He'd fit better in the #135th. This is a working class, blue collar neighborhood," says one Democrat. "I think the Democrats have a great shot at a pick-up in the #137th," says a Republican. "This district trends Democrat and with no incumbent, it will be tough. It's definitely Democratic leaning. I'm not going to be surprised if Norr wins at all."

State House District #138
(D) Rep. Sara Lampe
(R) Steve Helms
Rating: Safe Democratic Retention
Some Republicans still hold out hope that Segway-riding Steve Helms has a chance at ousting Sara Lampe. "I think it is nip and tuck," says one Republican. "Steve Helms has been working hard, hitting doors on his scooter," says another. But another Republican says he would be surprised if Lampe lost. "She's got notable Republican supporters because of her years in education. That makes her distinct, and plus it's a mixed district," says the G.O.P. official. Another indication Lampe is in good shape? Endorsements from the Missouri Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association. "The Chamber has no need to give an endorsement to a Democrat that doesn't agree with them on a lot. The bottom line is that the numbers show she is safe, and they want to go with a winner," says a Democratic strategist. "They've spent money to beat her before, and they aren't doing it this time. That tells you something."

State House District #139 - OPEN SEAT
(R) Shane Schoeller
(D) Jamie Schoolcraft
Rating: TOSS-UP
It could turn out to be the closest race of the night, according to politicos from both sides. It's a race for Rep. Brad Roark's old seat in a reliably Republican district. But the hometown roots of Schoolcraft are making this contest competitive. Internal Democratic polling shows Schoolcraft above 50% and with a small lead, but one that could be wiped out easily if Republicans turn out in force. "I think it will probably be close, from everything I see and hear," says one Republican who has lived in the district for most of her life. "I'm proud of Shane for keeping it clean on his part. He should win. His opponent has worked pretty hard, but he's been a little dirty about it and that could backfire," says this Republican. "If you would've asked me a few weeks ago, I'd say it was surely Republican, but apparently this Schoolcraft is making a big push," says another Republican with knowledge of the district. "Still I give Shane a slight edge because a certain amount of the district is rural and can't be walked," says the Republican. "I think it's getting close," says yet another female Republican with ties to the party in the district. "Schoolcraft has a good background, I think it will be close." But a moderate Republican believes knocking on doors doesn't necessarily mean votes and thinks Schoeller will win with 60%. "I just feel Schoeller's connection with the Blunt's and conservatives will help. Jamie is very sincere and he is working very hard, but I think people are going to turn out to vote down this stem cell thing and that helps conservatives," he says. Want another indication that Dems are salivating over the race? The House Democratic campaign committee just poured tens of thousands of dollars into Schoolcraft's race for a final week of radio ads. I'm betting this will be one to watch either way.

State House District #140
(R) Rep. Bob Dixon
(D) Tonya Cunningham
Rating: Safe Republican Retention
"If Dixon doesn't pull at least 60% of the vote, he's a loser," jokes one Democratic strategist. Dixon is the most polished Republican lawmaker in the area, and politicos on all sides say he'll waltz to victory next week. But insiders on both sides say Dixon is already positioning himself for a future State Senate run. "Dixon's already preparing for the Senate race. That's why his signs are all over town. He's investing in the future," says a Democrat. Another Republican says "of course he is." "Why not, he's a talented legislator with a bright future." Some say as soon as this campaign is over, a subtle State Senate campaign between Rep. Dixon and Rep. Lampe will commence. Let's try to get through 2006 first:)

So, for Democrats, the party out of power, here is the list of their best chances of winning, in order from best to worst, according to the politicos interviewed over the past 2 days.

Best Shots At Dem Pick-Ups
1. Charlie Norr (#137)
2. Jamie Schoolcraft (#139)
3. Doug Harpool (Senate #30)
4. Nancy Hagan (#135)
5. James Owen (#136)
6. - (TIED) Chris Brown (#134) & Tonya Cunninham (#140)