With one week to go before the election, Sen. Jim Talent leads Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill narrowly, according to a new Wall Street Journal-Zogby poll.
Sen. Jim Talent 49%
Claire McCaskill 47%
While Talent leads narrowly, this poll is consistent with a slew of recent polls giving Talent an ever-so-slight edge over McCaskill.
"It's really odd because we felt she had the momentum after the debates, and then somehow lost it," according to one Springfield Democratic strategist. "Talent's not breaking 50%, but she's not up in any poll," noted another Democrat.
In this poll, Talent leads among men; McCaskill wins women. McCaskill leads 48%-45% with independents. Zogby notes that McCaskill leads 71%-28% among self-declared moderates.
Zogby notes that both Talent and McCaskill have gained traction in this poll since September, and cautions that Talent's lead, while consistent, remains within the margin of error.
Oddly enough, two new polls give Virginia Democratic challenger Jim Webb an edge over incumbent Sen. George Allen. In fact, one political site now lists Allen as a more vulnerable Republican than Talent.
One Springfield Democrat offers this anecdotal of McCaskill's problem: "I met two women Democrats the other day that said they seem wary of voting for Claire, and these are hard-core Democrats! This kind of concerns me. The problem is that there is a slither of voters out there that don't think Claire is warm, and they tried to address that by having her in the kitchen with pots and pans and her mom in those ads. But it's a warmth factor that's creeping in," said this Democratic strategist.
"I always say once people meet her one-on-one, she wins them over. She's smart, articulate, passionate and engaging. But I'm not sure TV is the best medium for her," the strategist added.
"And the negatives may be taking a toll. One Democratic woman said the other day, 'what's going on with Claire and these nursing homes and her husband,?' I told her it was baloney. But she said the Talent ads seemed convincing. That worries me," the strategist said.
1 comment:
I think the national exposure and party management has hurt both of these candidates. It's hard to believe either of their positions on some issues when you consider the sources of the large amount of money from out of state groups.
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