Tuesday, October 31, 2006

SurveyUSA: McCaskill 49% Talent 46%; McCaskill Gaining Slight Edge

So about that momentum thing. Yeah.
I guess it's still up for grabs. Round n' Round it goes, says SurveyUSA.

Ain't this fun!?

Just when a slew of polls last week began trending toward Sen. Jim Talent's narrow re-election, brand new polls out in the final week are giving Claire McCaskill a slight edge.

SurveyUSA gives McCaskill a 3-point edge with less than a week to go.

Claire McCaskill 49%
Sen. Jim Talent 46%

Here's what SurveyUSA believes . . . slight trend towards McCaskill?

The Missouri Senate race remains a jump ball 7 days to the election, according to the latest . Three weeks ago, Democrat challenger Claire McCaskill led. Last week, Republican incumbent Jim Talent led. Today, McCaskill is back on top, this time by 3 points, within the margin of sampling error, true, but now with just enough of an advantage at this precise hour to allow one to say the odds are with her again. There is a complex, symbiotic relationship in Missouri between the U.S. Senate race and Amendment 2, on stem-cell research. It is difficult to separate cause and effect. If you examine SurveyUSA's tracking graphs on the Senate contest, you will see little movement among Democrats and little movement among Republicans. But among Independents, the lead has changed hands 4 times in 5 polls. Today, McCaskill leads by 6 among the 21% of Missouri Likely Voters who describe themselves as Independent, up 6 from 1 week ago. Among middle-income voters, the lead has also changed hands 4 times. Last week, Talent was up 9; today, McCaskill is up 10. Rural MO continues to support Talent. Urban MO continues to support McCaskill. The suburbs are now tied. Of those voting 'Yes' on Amendment 2, 76% back McCaskill. Of those voting 'No' on 2, 82% back Talent.

No comments: