Friday, October 27, 2006

KC Star: Urban Vote Could Tip Balance

The Ozarks has felt pretty special this election cycle, with both U.S. Senate candidates spending considerable time here. Sen. Jim Talent has made consistent stops to shore up his conservative base. Claire McCaskill has been here often because she admits she wasn't down here enough last time around.

"It's not that Claire didn't want to be in Springfield for the Governor's race, it's that she couldn't financially afford it. All the money is in St. Louis and Kansas City. It's the same way this time," one Democratic operative recently told me.

But the Kansas City Star now reports that the urban black vote could be the demographic that tips the balance in the Senate race.

"In the hard-fought Missouri Senate race, much of the publicity focuses on the candidates’ outstate outreach efforts. But the urban core also is important. Experts say that to win, McCaskill needs to roll up big margins — buttressed by big turnout — among black voters in Kansas City and St. Louis," writes Matt Stearns.

"McCaskill is expected to get by far the largest share of votes by African-Americans in Kansas City and St. Louis. But in Kansas City, inner-city turnout in midterm elections has always been problematic for Democrats. It typically runs several percentage points below the St. Louis turnout."

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