Wednesday, August 29, 2007

In Missouri, Hillary Beats 'Em All

You already know that the presidential candidate who wins Missouri, in most cases, wins the White House.

In a new series of polls testing Sen. Hillary Clinton's electability in the Show-Me state, Rasmussen Reports reveals the former First Lady passes with flying colors.

Clinton defeats all four of her major G.O.P. rivals head-to-head 14 months before the election.

Rudy Giuliani 43%
Hillary Clinton 46%

John McCain 40%
Hillary Clinton 46%

Fred Thompson 42%
Hillary Clinton 48%

Mitt Romney 39%
Hillary Clinton 48%

(500 likely voters, +/- 4.5%)

As you can see, Giuliani matches up best against Hillary for the G.O.P. Clinton beats Romney by the biggest margin.

You can get all the juicy details by clicking HERE.

Of course, a vigorous and nasty campaign will surely alter these numbers along the way. But it is notable that the polarizing Clinton (she's viewed favorably by half of Missourians; unfavorably by the other half) wins all four contests.


Paul Seale said...

Just a note, Dave.

Similar numbers were given to Talent before the U.S. Senate campaign started.

You noted then that Talent was under 50% and in danger.

I find it quite interesting that Hillary is "passing with flying colors" when the lead she has with Giuliani is within the MOE and in all cases is clearly under 50%.

You are right that there is a lot of campaigning left to do - and that includes what the media will be throwing into the fight as well.

David Catanese said...


There's a difference between Talent's numbers and Clinton's.

Talent was a Missouri incumbent under 50%. Clinton is not an incumbent or from Missouri.

As I point out in the post, there's no question she remains polarizing, and that these numbers will change.

But as the debate over Clinton's electability continues, I believe these polls do show that it's possible she can win Missouri in 2008.

That's the only point I make.

Paul Seale said...

I think any semi-intellegent person knows Hillary can win Missouri. If that is your point, then fine.

However, the way you worded the post makes it sound like she is rolling through the state and there is no way to stop her when the opposite is true.

What you failed to mention in your blog post is that Hillary has the most negatives of anyone and the slimmest ability to move. Only two percent are unsure when it comes to her.

On the other hand all the other candidates have a large portion of their polling numbers which would be marked as fluid.

To my suprise, 13% are unsure what to think of Thompson while he only has 14% of highly negative numbers.

On the flip side Hillary has 37% very unfavorable rating. That is almost double of ANY of the other candidates mentioned.

Similarly, while she does have a 50-50% split (26% to 24%) on favorable ratings - that means a large chunk can be moved into the unfavorable rating.

This is true will all the candadites - McCain and Giuliani are the most succeptable.

The other thing to note, though, is the negatives for the Republican candidates are mostly in the somewhat unfavorable category. This means there is more room to play and bring up a few points.

What is Clinton's percentage of somewhat unfavorable? 12%.

Bottom line is that while Hillary is certainly electable - she is most certainly NOT just rolling along and passing with flying colors.

For me, though, the post is quite telling in how you cover Rs and Ds.


David Catanese said...


Intelligent is spelled with an "i."

Paul Seale said...


You failed to mention Giulani's favorable rating is more than Hillary's - and his unfavorables are lower.

Your point being about my mispelling being?