Carnahan: Legislation Takes "Important Steps"

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Robin Carnahan continued to carefully craft her public position on federal healthcare legislation Thursday, saying the Senate bill "takes important steps" without wholeheartedly backing the entirety of the complex measure.

The Senate approved the measure early Thursday, 60-39, free of Republican votes. It sets the stage for a complicated conference committee negotiation, where House and Senate Democrats will attempt to push for final passage before President Obama's State of the Union address on February 2nd.

"While more needs to be done to get tough on insurance companies by creating more competition to drive down costs for all consumers, this legislation takes important steps to stop insurance companies from denying people insurance due to preexisting conditions, and to insure nearly 800,000 more Missourians," Carnahan said in a statement.

While Democrats from the president on down billed the vote as "historic," Republicans, like Congressman Roy Blunt framed it as a catastrophic mistake clouded by "political payoffs."

"It takes huge cuts out of Medicare for seniors, to spend on new programs that don't help seniors. Families will pay higher premiums for a new system that will move inevitably into rationing and ever deeper control by a huge new government bureaucracy. State budgets in Missouri and across the nation will be slammed with unfunded mandates from Washington, threatening funding for schools, public safety, and other vital purposes," Blunt said in a statement.

Blunt also made clear that Carnahan would have been among the Democrats voting "yes" if she held Sen. Kit Bond's seat.

The Missouri Republican Party used the season to land their charge: "On Christmas Eve, Robin Carnahan delivered a lump of coal to Missouri's families, businesses, and seniors when she declared what we already knew to be true: that she would have voted for the Democrats' reckless and expensive government-takeover of health care," said MoGOP executive director Lloyd Smith.

While conventional wisdom might permit the assumption that Carnahan would have been a "yes" vote, the Secretary of State has steered clear of taking a unequivocal position on the ever-changing legislation.

In early November, Carnahan said she was both "excited and concerned" about the legislation. What's unclear is where Carnahan stands on some of the most contentious differences between the House and Senate bills -- like the necessity of a public option, the level of abortion restrictions and who to tax to pay for the massive expansion of coverage.

A recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed Missouri voters opposed to Congressional healthcare legislation by a 57% to 40% margin. Carnahan lead Blunt overwhelmingly among those who favor the plan and held a surprising edge among those "somewhat opposed."

In her statement, for the first time, Carnahan also directly took a shot at Blunt's alternative plan, which focused on reigning in frivolous lawsuits and associated health plans through larger "risk pools."

"The alternative offered by Congressman Blunt, not only would increase premiums and push more Missourians onto the rolls of the uninsured but it also would let insurance companies continue their worst abuses like denying Missourians the care they need for the sake of profits. That is completely unacceptable," Carnahan said.

Meanwhile, one of the candidates aiming to replace Blunt mirrored some of the same language of the 7th District Congressman to lambaste passage.

"States like Missouri will see their budgets wrecked with more unfunded mandates from Washington, taking away from other essential services like education," said Mt. Vernon State Sen. Jack Goodman.

Goodman also pledged to work to overturn the legislation if elected, something former House Speaker Newt Gingrich already predicted would become a major campaign theme for Republicans in 2010.

The early-morning Christmas Eve vote allowed lawmakers to get home for the holiday. CNN showed video of Sen. Claire McCaskill, who voted yes, bolting through the parking lot as soon as the job was done.

Washington's WJLA reported that Sen. Bond, who voted no, also raced to the airport for a flight back to Kansas City.

"There's a blizzard due at 6 p.m. We're due to land at 3:30 p.m. Close counts in horseshoes, but I'm not sure about landing airplanes," Bond said.

Goodman's Cooks

The Cook family will hold a fundraiser for Sen. Jack Goodman's 7th District Congressional campaign next week as the final quarter of year winds to a close.

Chip, Loren and Jerry Cook are headlining an event for Goodman at the Doubletree Hotel on North Glenstone on Tuesday evening.

Rep. Charlie Denison, Rep. Shane Schoeller, Rep. Ray Weter and Rep. Jay Wasson as well as GOP fundraiser Neal Ethridge are also listed on the fundraising invitation.

Goodman trails both Sen. Gary Nodler and auctioneer Billy Long in fundraising.

PLUS: Nodler backer Gregg Hartley TWEETS of shifting alliances:

"MO-7 Congressional race: watch year end reports to see donors who are shifting allegiance;2 candidates have shifting sands," proclaimed Hartley in a Friday Tweet.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the eighth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Stable) Stability reigned over the last month, so Long stays a top the heap. He continues to raise money and land high profile backers. The auctioneer is also clearly the most visible candidate in the field, in part due to his prolific Tweeting of his whereabouts. (He's the @clairecmc of the GOP). Branson's Peter Herschend was a nice recent coup for Long, who doesn't want to be the frontrunner. But in 2010 he'll know he is pretty quickly.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) The Joplin State Senator relinquished his Appropriations Chairmanship and recently had what an ally calls "a very successful D.C. swing", including a big event that former Roy Blunt chief of staff and D.C. power-hitter Gregg Hartley put together. Is Nodler making inroads on Long's cash advantage during a tough 4th quarter? It's certainly on his holiday wish list.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) After dropping to his lowest ranking since April last month, things have been relatively quiet in Goodman-land. His hired gun, David Barklage isn't as keen on dishing on his candidate as some of the other advisers in the race. It's no secret that returning calls isn't the strength of the GOP's leading State Senate consultant. But it leaves his status with the campaign somewhat in doubt.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is struggling to raise money, but a mid-November poll shows the power of name identification. The Wilson Research Strategies survey of 301 likely primary voters is mostly meaningless in a scattered race 10 months away. But it also showed Moore tied with Nodler among those who've made up their mind. He also boasted the highest favorable rating ratio. As much as his rivals want the field narrowed, the prosecutor remains plugging along. And why would he not? "I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The tea party-toting populist conservative didn't even earn enough respect to be included in the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC's November poll. The outsider has a base of support, but there's no evidence it's growing.

6. Michael Wardell -- (Stable) Say this: The guy knows how to put together a press release. Always available for comment, Wardell wants to opine on every latest issue: Afghanistan, healthcare, Billy Long. He definitely wields intellectual power. The question now is, what's next?

7. Mike Moon -- (Stable) The other Mike, curiously, did make it into the SWMO Leadership PAC poll. Moon registered 2 percent, in poll with a 5.6 percent margin of error. Not bad, but not enough to rock our rankings.

Most 7th District Candidates Won't Be Attending Palinmania

Most of the Republican candidates running for Congress in the 7th District won't be attending Sarah Palin's events in the Ozarks Wednesday.

But auctioneer Billy Long will attend the speech and a special private V.I.P. meet and greet after her appearance at College of the Ozarks.

Palin will do a book signing at BORDERS from 10 a.m. to noon, then make a speech closed to the media at College of the Ozarks at 7 p.m.

The Notebook sent inquiries to all seven GOP contenders to see who would be attending Palin's Borders book signing or the college speech.

Here's what we found:

Sen. Jack Goodman: Not able to make either event due to previously scheduled obligations. Spokesman Miles Ross said he wasn't sure if Goodman had purchased the book. "He is currently reading a book by Senator Tom Coburn," said Ross.

Billy Long: Going to the speech, but probably not the book signing. The auctioneer said he also plans on attending a special dinner prior to the speech at the Keeter Center and a special V.I.P. meet and greet photo opportunity after her speech. The V.I.P ticket did require a donation to a student activity program, according to College of the Ozarks spokeswoman Elizabeth Andrews.

Sen. Gary Nodler: The Senator is currently out of the state in Washington. Spokesman Charles Poplstein said that trip prohibits him from attending either event.

Michael Wardell: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I would have if the tickets were not snapped up so fast," Wardell e-mailed. Said he plans on purchasing the book.

Mike Moon: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I wish I could but I'm not able to," Moon said. "There weren't tickets available and I'm working during the book signing." He said he has not purchased "Going Rogue" but is interested in reading it.

Jeff Wisdom: Does plan on attending the book signing, but not the speech. "I teach a Wednesday evening class at OTC," said Wisdom. The instructor said he does plan on purchasing more than one copy of Palin's book. "One for myself and the others for Christmas gifts. I will give one copy of the book to my dad," Wisdom said.

Darrell Moore: Plans on attending speech, but not the Borders book signing. Said he has no plans on purchasing Palin's book.

Missouri Republicans & Skelton Lament House Healthcare Vote

"This is history"
Democratic Congressman Ike Skelton joined Missouri Republicans in opposition to a massive healthcare overhaul that narrowly cleared the U.S. House late Saturday.

Excerpts of each statement in order of reception:

7th District Congressional candidate Jack Goodman: "Very disappointing" "This legislation is loaded with job-killing taxes, mandates that create over 100 new bureaucracies, slashes Medicare funding and will further strain state budgets around the country. This is not fixing the problem, but legislating new problems in search of a solution."

4th District Congressman Ike Skelton: "Not the right balance" "I am concerned about the impact the legislation could have on rural hospitals and doctors. The proposed reductions to Medicare reimbursement could further squeeze the budgets of rural health care providers. One solution might be for Congress to ensure that rural Missourians understand how any new legislation will affect them and their families."

7th District Congressman Roy Blunt: "Budget-busting" "It's families and patients who will suffer most under this government takeover of health care. This bill costs more than $1 trillion, increases premium costs, puts a bureaucrat between you and your doctor, and pays for most of it with Medicare cuts and job-killing tax hikes."

7th District Congressional candidate Billy Long: "Playing politics" "If you ask career politicians to come up with a solution to health care you shouldn't be surprised when their solution is simply more government, more taxes and more bureaucracy. This bill is at best bad policy and at worst unconstitutional. I would have voted against it."

4th District Congressional candidate Bill Stouffer: "People have had enough" "This bill is the wrong answer to the wrong question. Instead of growing government, we should have focused on common sense solutions like medical malpractice reform, Association Health Plans and getting rid of the state lines to create real competition."

7th District Congressional candidate Gary Nodler: "Dangerous bill" "The bill passed last night in the House by Pelosi and the liberal Democrats is a step towards single payer, government run health care. If passed by the Senate, the bill will mortgage our childrens' financial future via exploding deficits and ruin Americans' health care."

7th District Congressional candidate Michael Wardell: "Ridiculous . . . egregious" "Our current health care system is certainly not perfect, but it is far better than this socialist-inspired prescription. If this bill becomes law, it will be the greatest government debacle ever visited upon the American people, who in retribution will once again consign the Democratic Party to the minority in Congress."

7th District Power Rankings

This is the seventh installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Up 1) For the first time in five months, The Notebook has a new candidate atop the Power Rankings. Auctioneer Billy Long returns to the number one ranking for the first time since the list debuted back on April 30th. Long has been a tour de force at raising cash, building up just under a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over his next closest opponent. He's mixing an outsider, non-politician image with GOP insider money. And he's raising eyebrows from Washington, D.C. to Jefferson City. Long has charm, money, no voting record and the ability to run a populist campaign in a year that people are yearning for an outsider. Long doesn't want to lead the rankings. It's easier, after all, to thrive at the outsider. But being on top also guarantees a bulls eye on his back. Long's biggest strength might also be his biggest vulnerability: to shoot straight from the hip. But if he maintains a large resource advantage, he'll be able to answer any attack that comes his way. With a wink, nod and funny one-liner. The Billy Long way.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Up 1) Nodler returns to the second slot for the first time since August. His 3rd quarter fundraising failed below expectations and he's expected to relinquish his Senate Appropriations chairmanship soon, possibly even before Thanksgiving. But Nodler's pick-up of Roy Blunt's former chief of staff Gregg Hartley gave him some positive news to cap off the month. Hartley's D.C. connections will inevitably help Nodler raise cash in the beltway. But his blessing raises a larger question about where Blunt's allegiance lies in the 7th. "Hartley doesn't do anything without talking to Roy first," said one 7th District politico. Is Hartley's support a sign that Team Blunt is switching their allegiance to Nodler? Is Nodler now seen as the establishment's best chance at stopping Long? Now Nodler needs to show he can keep pace with Long's fundraising to earn that slot in the championship bout.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Down 2) Goodman falls to his lowest ranking since the Power Rankings began back in April. Some of his drop is self-inflicted, but part of it is a vicious whisper campaign that generated bad buzz for a candidate already reeling from a bad fundraising quarter. His burn rate is much too high, much too soon, so campaign consultant David Barklage has/will be taken off the list of expenses. Now Goodman has to figure out how not only to keep pace financially, but to boost his Mojo and convince skeptics he still and will be in the game. It's too early to write off Goodman, who was the leader of the Power Rankings for the last five straight months. He has the strongest grassroots team in place and still exerts loyalty in those outlying counties of Taney, Lawrence and Barry. No one around has a bad word to say about Jack. But the sentences involving him are now ending with, "Is he tough enough? Can he fight back?"

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is now being talked about a more of a spoiler than a viable contender to with the 7th. His name identification is still tops in Greene County. So who does that hurt most? We know Moore's presence is good for Nodler. But who does he siphon more votes away from? Goodman or Long. A smart politico outside the 7th says Moore hurts Long the most, because he takes right out of Billy's base of Greene County. It's too early to begin talking deals, but Moore could play kingmaker in a tight dicey race. And remember, no smart kingmaker cuts a deal without getting something in return.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The Notebook caught up with Wisdom at Tuesday night's anti-pension sales tax gathering downtown. After doing some radio with Vincent David Jericho, Wisdom worked the tables, quietly introducing himself to mostly college students, sipping on lattes. Did election night 2009 prove that the tea party movement isn't as potent and organized in southwest Missouri as suggested? If so, that's a setback for Wisdom's populist campaign.

6. Michael Wardell -- (----) The Nixa business owner and former Marine is articulate and thoughtful. And at his announcement, in one sitting, he unveiled more specifics than any of his rivals. Wardell said he got in the race because he was sick of hearing the red meat and empty rhetoric. He's furiously sending out releases in an attempt to break through the fray. But his promise to visit the district's twenty-some counties over the next few weeks (even though there's only 10) shows he has some outreach and catching up to do.

7. Mike Moon -- (Down 1) We haven't heard much out of Moon since he entered the race. But he does have a cool website that pops up a moon over the Capitol. And on his Facebook page, he's sitting on the trunk of an elephant. But if he held an official announcement kick-off, we could at least get him on Ky3 for 30 seconds.

Missouri Pols Play Unemployment Blame Game

Missouri Republicans hopped all over the new unemployment rate Friday, which hit double-digits for the first time in 26 years.

GOPers said the 10.2 percent jobless number proved that the Obama administration's massive economic stimulus package failed to accomplish its intended goals, eight months after its passage.

"While President Obama told us that the failed stimulus would keep unemployment below 8 percent, more than 10 percent of Americans are unemployed," Congressman Roy Blunt said in a statement.

The country lost 190,000 jobs in October, continuing a downward trend that began last spring.

The Obama administration noted that employment in temporary jobs increased by 33,700. Christina Romer, chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisors, said that number represented a sign of hope amid "painful evidence of continued labor market weakness."

"The motor vehicle industry also posted employment gains. These are hopeful signs that the unprecedented policy actions are working to stabilize the economy and put us on a path toward recovery," said Romer. Read her full statement HERE.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to tie Missouri's Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate to the climb in unemployment.

"Robin Carnahan was among those Democrats who said that she would have voted in favor of the failed stimulus debacle," said NRSC press secretary Amber Wilkerson Marchand.

In an interview with The Notebook back in March, Carnahan did not specifically commit support to the $787 billion dollar stimulus package, but said "we've got to do something."

On the specific legislation, Carnahan said, "I didn't read the 18-hundred page bill and wasn't asked to vote on that. There's no reason for me to kind of talk about something I didn't have any input on. (You can watch the full clips from that interview HERE.)

Meanwhile, Missouri Democrats tried to reach back to the Bush administration to pin blame for the country's continuing economic problems. Missouri Democratic Party executive director Brian Zuzenak said that Blunt's 93 percent voting record with President Bush makes him responsible for one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression.

In the 7th Congressional District, Sen. Jack Goodman said the 10.2% unemployment rate "is another sure sign that the Pelosi-Obama stimulus has failed."

Goodman, who voted against a large state spending bill that included stimulus money, has tried to carve himself out as the most fiscally conservative Republican in the race to replace Roy Blunt.

"Stimulus bills, bailouts, and government takeovers have done little more than increase the national deficit by trillions of dollars that future generations of Americans will struggle to pay off," Goodman said.

Hartley Sends E-mail to GOPers Touting Nodler, Dinging Long

"You can't be partly pregnant . . ."

Gregg Hartley, who endorsed Sen. Gary Nodler for Congress Tuesday night, has sent an e-mail to 7th District Republicans, urging them to sign on to the campaign.

In the note, Congressman Roy Blunt's former longtime chief of staff also suggests a potential weakness of auctioneer Billy Long's campaign.

"The pundits would tell you Billy Long is in the lead and he sure has had some momentum," Hartley wrote in the e-mail forwarded to The Notebook.

"He is playing the outsider role but his campaign structure sends a different signal," Hartley goes on.

Hartley, who used to live in Missouri but now works as a lobbyist with Cassidy & Associates in Washington, D.C. said he did not intend to get involved in the 7th District primary, but that this campaign is personal to him.

"This is an important campaign. The candidate who wins the primary wins the seat. Congressmen Gene Taylor, Mel Hancock and Roy Blunt have built the seventh into one powerful seat. It is more than just one of 435. There are expectations of the one who holds the seat to live up its history. In Missouri, the 7th is the fulcrum which has leveraged tremendous growth statewide in GOP power. It is the traditional cradle of conservative Republic belief in Missouri and votes," Hartley wrote.

"I think it really matters who follows Roy," he added.

Nodler said he met with Hartley this past weekend and said he appreciates his support and welcomes it. Hartley said that while he and Nodler have not always been on the same team in the past, the Joplin Senator is best prepared to fill Blunt's shoes.

"I have known him for 30 years. Gary and I have not always agreed on campaigns or issues, and we won’t in the future. But he will do a strong job as the Congressman for the Seventh. I am going to support his efforts and endorse his campaign. Not as lobbyist or a vested interested here in DC, but as a Missourian, a former chief of staff to the Congressman from Southwest Missouri and as someone who cares deeply about the difference he can make in the Republican House Conference. I hope you will consider doing the same," Hartley wrote.

Hartley won't have a formal role with Nodler's campaign, but is expected to provide advice.

NODLER ON LOBBYIST TIES

"No one in the nation's capitol -- outside Congressman Blunt -- knows the district better than Gregg Hartley," Nodler said.

"Gregg is very close to Congressman Blunt. He managed many of his campaigns, so he understands the district and the demands of the office. He's a lobbyist in Washington D.C. and knows a lot of folks both inside and outside of government," Nodler said.

Asked whether he was worried about the perception of receiving an endorsement from a Washington, D.C. based lobbyist, Nodler said every major candidate in the 7th District race has some ties to lobbyists.

"You're not going to find any significant contributor base that isn't tied to a lobbyist base. Any candidate who's raised any substantial money, has accepted money from lobbyists, people who have been lobbyists, paid lobbyists or employed lobbyists," Nodler said.

When suggested that Sen. Jack Goodman's campaign donations have been smaller, Nodler replied, "For a time, he had a relationship with David Barklage. He's a registered lobbyist." Barklage is running Sen. Goodman's campaign.

"You can't be partly pregnant. I know some people would like to be hypocritical about it. I'm not criticizing it. I'm just saying people throw allegations out there without looking in the mirror."

Nodler: Goodman Voted Against Jobs on EaglePicher

EXPLAINS EAGLEPICHER FUNDING & HITS GOODMAN

"That line is Goodman propaganda . . ."

Joplin State Senator Gary Nodler said there was never a specific appropriation for EaglePicher this past legislative session and accused his 7th District opponent Sen. Jack Goodman of opposing job creation when he voted against the bill containing funds for the company.

"There was no appropriation for EaglePicher. There's nothing in the bill that specified that. There was a $50 million dollar allocation to the Department of Economic Development. And to date, no one has gotten it," Nodler said, in response to a story published by The Notebook Tuesday night.

"That line is the Goodman propaganda line, a Goodman campaign theme. But it's untrue," Nodler added.

On Tuesday night, former Roy Blunt chief of staff Gregg Hartley endorsed Nodler for Congress. The Notebook reported that Hartley, a lobbyist, has represented EaglePicher and that Nodler helped land $25 million dollars for the company during this past legislative session.

But Nodler, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, said the language in the specific legislation of House Bill 22 did not single out EaglePicher, and that it was state officials in the Department of Economic Development who recommended the money be loaned to two high-tech battery plants, one of them being EaglePicher.

The actual wording in the bill, never mentions EaglePicher, but is clearly targeted for "for not more than two new manufacturing company locations or existing manufacturing company expansions that use existing battery technologies."

Nodler said he never had a conversation with Hartley or any EaglePicher employee about the $25 million dollar appropriation. He said the first he knew Hartley had a relationship with Eagle Picher was this past weekend when the two met for dinner. "I don't monitor Cassidy's reporting or clients. I didn't know he had a relationship with EaglePicher until the other night," Nodler said.

Between 2007 and 2008, campaign finance documents show that EaglePicher donated $1,200 to Nodler.

During the interview Wednesday, Nodler said he doubted EaglePicher could even qualify for the money if it was released.

"Last time I checked Eagle Picher has not met the job creation target necessary to qualify for the loan," Nodler said.

But in his May 11th Capitol report, Nodler touted the $25 million dollar appropriation for "an exciting project" that could create hundreds of new jobs.

"EaglePicher Inc., a battery manufacturer, has a research and development facility in Joplin and is expected to receive a $25 million loan, which will essentially become a grant when the company meets certain commitments such as creating at least 500 jobs in the area and spending $150 million on the project. This expansion is an opportunity to expand high-tech jobs and strengthen the economy in our area," Nodler wrote.

Gov. Jay Nixon's administration said the money has not been released because EaglePicher has not yet met all the qualifiers to attain the forgivable loan.
Several capitol reporters have compared the EaglePicher funding to the federal earmarking process, where oversight and transparency is often lacking. On Wednesday, Nodler defended his vote for the legislation and stressed the $25 million dollars was a just a loan. "It was not a grant. It was not a gift. It was not corporate welfare. The state would recover the full amount," Nodler said.

He also took aim at his rival Goodman for voting against the legislation. "One Senator from our district did vote against 400 to 600 jobs. He was the one opposed to job creation in Southwest Missouri," Nodler said, referring to Goodman. "There's absolutely no justification for opposing it."

In a statement provided to The Notebook, Goodman said he stood by his vote against the spending bill that tapped into federal stimulus dollars. "It had tens of millions in pork barrel spending that we cannot afford with the current state shortfall and federal deficit. I will consistently fight to stop such bills in Congress," said Goodman.

"I believe lower taxes create jobs, not greater government spending. That is why I opposed President Obama’s so-called stimulus bill and will oppose any additional stimulus packages," Goodman added.

Nodler and Goodman are battling five other Republicans for the 7th District Congressional GOP nomination.

Long Nets Another 'Get'

Tom Carter, a key Republican player in the 7th Congressional district and a prolific fundraiser for Congressman Roy Blunt, has signed on to help Billy Long's U.S. House campaign, The Notebook has learned.

Carter, who was said to be deciding between Long and Sen. Jack Goodman's campaign, notified the Goodman camp of his decision late last week.

Long said he was thrilled to have Carter's endorsement.

"No one knows the 7th District like Tom," said Long. "I know Tom was close to Hal Donaldson so I didn't bug him until Hal decided not to run. I called Tom the day Hal announced his decision and have been trying to get his endorsement ever since," Long added.

Goodman's campaign declined to comment.

The pick-up for Long continues a series of good news bits for a campaign that appears to be gaining momentum less than ten months from the August 2010 primary. Long's fundraising numbers have turned heads among political insiders from Branson to Jefferson City.

Long's campaign operation is also more willing to play up its positive developments in the media than his two other main rivals.

Carter will not hold an official role on Long's campaign team, but rather assist with fundraising and grass roots efforts. Carter did not immediately return a call for comment Monday evening.

Carter's alliance with Long also sets up an intriguing inner-party dynamic. Carter, who used to manage license fee offices along with his wife Leslie during Gov. Matt Blunt's administration, is also helping 4th District GOP candidate Vicky Hartzler.

Hartzler's main rival for the nomination is Sen. Bill Stouffer, whose campaign is being run by Kansas City-based GOP consultant Jeff Roe. Roe has also gotten behind Long's effort and is expected to be ramping up his engagement in the 7th District in the coming months.

Goodman has a familiar GOP name leading his fundraising efforts. Heather Grote,was the chief fundraiser for Sen. Kit Bond's political action committee, KITPAC, and has also signed onto Blunt's U.S. Senate campaign.

But Goodman's third quarter fundraising effort was widely seen as a disappointment, putting more pressure on Grote and the rest of the campaign to keep up with Long in the remaining months of the year.

Multiple sources also say that Goodman's camp is angling to get Greene County prosecutor Darrell Moore out of the race.

One consultant, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said Goodman is worried about Moore peeling away potential support.

But former Blunt chief of staff and GOP player Gregg Hartley also signaled Monday that Long may want Moore out of the race.

"Caller tells me both Goodman and Long trying to get Darrell Moore out of primary in MO-7th congressional; good reasons for him to resist," Hartley wrote in a Twitter post.

Inside the 7th District Numbers

While auctioneer Billy Long is the undisputed 7th District Republican Congressional fundraising leader, Sen. Jack Goodman boasted the most donors who gave over $100 and Sen. Gary Nodler raised the most money outside the district.

A quick 3rd Quarter breakdown -- based on reportable contributions of $100 or more:
Statistics are based on money raised between July and September by each candidate in Springfield, Joplin and outside the Congressional district. The burn rate is the percentage of money raised that's already been spent.

BILLY LONG
Springfield $49,450 (1)
Joplin $2,400 (2)
Outside the 7th $14,850 (2)
Total Itemized Contributors 105 (2)
Key contributors: Postitronics President John Gentry, David O'Reilly of O'Reilly Auto Parts, Investor Stephen Plaster and SRC CEO John Stack.
Burn Rate 10%

GARY NODLER
Springfield $4,450 (3)
Joplin $16,450 (1)
Outside the 7th $29,350 (1)
Total Itemized Contributors 93 (3)
Key contributors: Springfield Attorney Tad Morlan, former Sen. John Danforth, Killian Construction CEO William Killian
Burn Rate 20%

JACK GOODMAN
Springfield $12,215 (2)
Joplin $730 (3)
Outside the 7th $3,275 (3)
Total Itemized Contributors 225 (1)
Key contributors: Attorney Dee Wampler, Tourism Commission Kelly Swanson, Greene County Commission candidate Conrad Griggs, Greene County Prosecutor candidate Steve Fenner
Burn Rate 40%

Goodman Spent More Than He Raised 3rd Quarter

Sen. Jack Goodman spent more money that he raised during the third fundraising quarter, leaving him with $137,544 dollars to spend for his 7th District Congressional campaign.

Goodman reported raising $46,090 between July and September, spent $51,306 and refunded $5,500.

An ally from a rival 7th District camp e-mailed: "Horrible. I have never seen a candidate spend more than he raised this far out."

VIEW Goodman's REPORT HERE.

With reports from the four top candidates now filed, it's clear that Auctioneer Billy Long is the undisputed fundraising frontrunner on all accounts.

Billy Long now has more cash on hand than his three top challengers COMBINED.

7th District Cash on Hand

Nodler $144,042

Goodman $137,544

Moore $11,144

=

$292,730

****

Long Cash On Hand = $405,162

7th District Power Rankings

This is the sixth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Scroll down to the bottom of the 7th District GOP committee website and you'll find a banner graphic for Sen. Jack Goodman. Notice there's not one for Sen. Gary Nodler. This may be an innocent meaningless symbol, but nonetheless one that adds to the perception of Goodman opponents that Mt. Vernon's man is the chosen one. To the faithful, Goodman is visible, working hard and holding firm. No real spark yet, but that's not yet necessary when your organization is in ship shape and gliding above the others. Look for another solid fundraising quarter for Goodman. (Slow and steady wins the race). And if he's somehow able to edge Gary Nodler in money bags, it would be a tremendous coup.

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Based on his Tweets, Billy Long is everywhere. At the Ducks Unlimited dinner in Joplin. At the Tea Party rally on a Saturday afternoon. At the Polk County GOP meeting in Bolivar. "If there's a Republican event that's attractive, he's there," notes a supporter. "He's trying to get out and meet people. You'd be surprised that some people don't think you're serious if you're not an elected official," that supporter went on. Billy has made clear he'll have the money. (Last month, he netted Sarah Steelman fundraiser/ally Jeff Layman). Now he's trying to prove he's got the mojo. For the past few months, that's meant less dialing for dollars and more pounding the pavement. He has solidified himself as the happy outsider, happy to march to Washington just to personally tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "No." The auctioneer stays slotted second, and as the underdog, wouldn't mind being lower.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) As far as fundraising goes, Nodler should own the third quarter. This will be his first full three-month run at the money pot as an official candidate. This summer and early fall, he hasn't had to balance campaigning with Senatorial duties any longer. And it could be his last full quarter as Senate Appropriations Chair. If Nodler doesn't win the third quarter, look for rival camps to seize on it as a significant letdown. Then again, aides from several camps have already warned The Notebook that it's fundraising predictions are too high. "It's brutal out there," said one of the economic environment. Still, if this stays a 3-man ran race like it's shaping up to be, Nodler will have the money, clout and campaign experience to fight the good fight.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) After a solid speech in August, Moore's lack of visibility has perplexed some insiders. He was the only major candidate not in attendance at the Missouri Republican Assembly dinner featuring Joe Wilson. And while it may be unfair to judge the frequency of ones Twitter posts, Moore did have a month long gap between between Sept. 9th and Oct. 4th with no activity. Hopefully for his sake, he was raising money. (But word is he hates asking for it.) Still, if he's to break into the top tier, he'll need to put up a respectable number this quarter. Even some of Moore's supporters will acknowledge the Greene County prosecutor isn't very comfortable shaking hands and kissing babies. But that's a requirement to win this type of hands-on race. Going through the '09-'10 budget line-by-line is impressive, but pure name identification can only carry a candidate so far.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) Tanned and back from Bahrain, you might have thought Wisdom would have capitalized on his service overseas with some type of creative welcome home event that would've caught media attention. Wisdom is an impressive individual, goes the buzz . . . And he would make a terrific candidate for state representative. Still, Wisdom has no real reason to get out of this race and still attracts a loyal slice of the Fair Tax/anti-big government conservatives that others like Long would love to snatch up. Sure, it's ripe for an outsider to win this year. But Wisdom is like the 15 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. He's got backers, but needs a lot to go right to knock off each of the big dogs. His biggest problem, observes one young Republican? "He is surrounded by people telling him he can win."

6. Mike Moon (----) Stalking horse or real deal? It's a mystery to some. The 50-year-old Moon is the most recent entry into the 7th District fray. We do know he works at St. John's Fitness Center but resides in Lawrence County. Does that mean he siphons votes from Goodman? Too soon to tell. But he could do some creative bumper sticker slogans with that catchy name.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fifth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) For those of you volatility hounds, this is a snoozer. Goodman remains numero uno, because after a fair amount of reportage, The Notebook found there wasn't enough compelling evidence to drop the Mount Vernon Senator, despite increasing talk about his mediocre performances in public settings. "The guy is weak in social settings," writes one Republican. But he does have a ground game in place that's shoring up establishment support in counties across the district. Predictably, they love him in the counties he represents: "He's a gentleman for the people. He's for all types of people, the rich, the poor and the in between," gushes Barry County GOP vice-chair Barbara White. "Jack's the only one paying attention to us," says Stone County GOP vice-chair Connie Johnson. "I'm not hearing anybody talk about anyone else," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George. "But if they're not for Jack, I probably don't hang out with them," she chuckles. Goodman's been griping he hasn't been getting a fair shake with the press -- but see the pattern here? Women love him. I bet he polls better with them. His looks, his lighter touch. But for the men out there -- and the angry and tired -- he'll still have to answer that essential question: What real reason do I have to get excited and vote for you. Or as Sarah Steelman would say, "another white guy in a suit."

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Long was one of the big winners at the Patriots in the Park rally, and his Tweets give an impression of an active, aggressive campaign with growing momentum. His biggest compliment in August came when Goodman took a shot at him in public, suggesting 7th District voters need more than just a jokester who's dependent on advisers. GOPers say tension is building between the Long and Goodman camps and that the two men are noticeably not shaking hands at events together. Goodman has heard the footsteps as Long has toned his political muscle this summer -- his repertoire, his fundraising, his retail politics. But the fast-talking and tweeting auctioneer still seems a bit foreign to some. When The Notebook asked Lawrence County GOP chair James Young what he thought of Long's candidacy, he replied, "From what I hear, I don't know people feel he has the political expertise to accomplish a lot." But others notice he's becoming a threat. "I've been impressed by the amount of money he's raised," said Taney County GOP Chair Buddy Roberts. "For a no-name in the political arena, somebody out there is listening to him." Ironically enough, I think the Long camp is content to hear both of those statements. The most important thing Long has to do over the next several months is build a district-wide grassroots organization to rival Goodman's.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) Nodler rounds out the big three, and his allies think it's absurd the Power Rankings place him behind BOTH Goodman and Long. The Joplin Senator has been spending a good chunk of time in Greene County, and his team seems confident that Jasper will safely fall in line. He also has some high-dollar fundraisers lined up, which should make his next quarterly finance report stand out. But the main arguments for Nodler's success continue to be fundraising and geography and not personal likability. "I have never felt Gary was that big of a threat because of his lack of popularity," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George, an open Goodman supporter. "Sometimes I wonder how Gary continues to be re-elected. You never hear anybody say positive things about him," adds George. Ouch. (Calls to Jasper & Newton County chairs were not returned.) "I'm not sure how many people know of him," says Christian County GOP chair Ed Merritt. "I'd say Jack and Billy are probably the two frontrunners," Merritt said. To be sure, Nodler has his slice of the establishment pie. But over the entire district, it doesn't appear to be larger than Goodman's.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor has already shown signs of improvement in his stump speech, as he was able to rally the conservative Patriot Day crowd. But in a Notebook survey of county chairs and other insiders, Moore's name came up more often in counties west of Greene than Long's did. Chalk that up to Moore's powerful name ID. Wonder when the other candidates start complaining about Moore's free TV time as prosecutor? Either way, Moore's largest obstacle remains constant: how to break into the top three.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Up 1) Despite his close ties to Vincent David Jericho, it's tough to be overseas and compete with the big dogs. Still, Wisdom's eloquence helps him every time he's able to get in front of an audience. "I'm impressed by by a young individual who wants to make a change," says Taney County GOP chair Buddy Roberts. Wisdom has been telling his supporters that he can beat the others in a debate. But he's got to be here to debate. His campaign tells the Notebook that Wisdom will return to Springfield next week and be ready to go.

6. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 1) I'm thinking 2012. You?

7. The 'Other' Candidate -- (----)There's all this chatter that a new candidate is about to jump in the race. Does anyone out there believe another candidate -- besides Steelman -- could jump in this late and make a credible case for victory?

"Patriot Primary": Long Wins Crowd, Moore Most Improved

Answers to the 12 questions The Notebook had about the 7th District Congressional candidates "Patriot Day" primary:

Q1: How many jokes Billy Long will deliver -- and if he's got any new ones.
A: Counting Billy Long jokes in a speech is like counting stars in a clear summer night sky: After awhile, you're doing to lose track. Long pretty much delivered the same stump speech he gave at his announcement. "I'm not from the government, but I'm here to help," will surely show up in Long's television ads next year. This time, the hulking Long opened with: "Can you all see me behind this mic stand?" And when KSFG staff instructed him to move the microphone to the right to avoid interference with the speaker, Long quickly delivered, "I knew you wouldn't want to move it to the left." It took just 20 seconds for Long to win the crowd over.

Q2. What gets bashed more -- the stimulus OR government healthcare.
A: I thought it'd be closer, but since healthcare is dominating the news right now -- it received the majority of the criticism.

Q3. The kind of reception "the base" gives Darrell Moore.
A: Moore's first line was meant to establish his cred: "My name is Darrell Moore and I'm a conservative and not in a bad mood about it." It received mild applause, but it was a good attempt at injecting some levity into his prosecutorial tone. Moore's speech was much improved from his announcement. His theme was a return to fiscal stewardship, which sold well. The meat Moore threw at the conservative crowd was more pink than red, which suits his style. But his call for a federal spending freeze seemed to resonate. If Long won the day, Moore gets most improved.

Q4. Since Jericho is for Wisdom, how much of the crowd will be pro-Wisdom.

A: Despite showing up at his announcement (and no other candidate's) Vincent David Jericho wrote in The Notebook's comment section that he's endorsed no one in the primary. Still, because he was overseas Jeff Wisdom got the luxury of speaking first via phone. And he got steady applause throughout his speech. The KSGF crowd is not the TARGET BBQ GOP crowd. They're less buttoned-down and more populist; less candidate-focused and more issue-focused; less establishment and more blue-collar middle class; less likely to write a check and more likely to bring a homemade sign. Wisdom got a better reception there than he'd get at a local party-sponsored event.

Q5. If any of them publicly praise Roy Blunt with the knowledge of Jericho's feud with the Congressman.
A: Nobody mentioned Blunt, not even Sen. Chuck Purgason, who's running against him. But Jericho did once at the beginning, saying the Congressman won't return his calls.

Q6. Who wins the sticker/sign ground war.
A: There wasn't really a war. Signs weren't permitted; except for Wisdom, since he couldn't appear in person. In an unscientific parking lot survey, I saw one bumper sticker for Billy Long and one for Jack Goodman. Long had several people handing out business cards with his issue list and phone number; Goodman also had staff in attendance but Nodler did not.

Q7. Who gets more applause Goodman or Long.
A: Long by a longshot. Of all the Republicans, Goodman spoke last. So in his defense, the crowd was probably getting a bit tired. But the Mount Vernon Senator didn't get one round of applause during his speech. Only independent Dean Moore spoke after Goodman, and he won more applause. Goodman paid his dues, but this wasn't his crowd. It's probably too early to surmise if that's going to be a significant problem for him.

Q8. Who gets more applause Goodman or Nodler.
A: Nodler. Nodler, who spoke third to last, kept it short and focused on his upbringing and background. He didn't seem to want to bore the crowd going over the same checklists, so he thanked the veterans and predicted the defeat of Democrats in 2010. Both are always safe bets for applause at conservative events.

Q9. Which candidate delivers the most red meat for the right.
A: This one again goes to Billy Long. He bashed Obamacare, skewered earmarks and out-of-control spending and lambasted career politicians. He also was the only candidate to mention his pro-life and N.R.A. credentials. Oh, and he's for tax cuts too. Wisdom hit a lot of the right notes as well, advocating for the federal government to have no role in education and warning of a creep towards socialism. Interestingly, Goodman also used the socialism charge; Darrell Moore did not.

Q10. If any of the 7th District candidates clap for anything Purgason says.
A: Yes. Sen. Purgason kept his speech focused on issues, and didn't attack Blunt. So on broad issues of a agreement among the GOP, he got applause.

Q11. Dean Moore's relevancy.
A: Sad to say, but it's likely little. A little-known independent sold well with this crowd, but doesn't likely have the traction or finances to take on the two-party structure. Speaking in a shirt and tie on a hot summer day, Moore said he doesn't trust the two-party system. A lot of people sympathize with the sentiment, but in the end they stick with the options on the menu.

Q12. Which candidate has grown/sharpened his message the most since entering the race.
A: Darrell Moore. Still a bit too long, but his speech was tighter. His message was clearer than opening day, when he shoveled in too many historical references. He also infused some humor, personality and personal anecdotes. It all helps to humanize the speech.

CATANESE'S OVERALL TAKE:
Long won the day based on pure speechifying. It'll be hard for any of the candidate's to top Billy in this department. But throughout his humorous and off-the-cuff repertoire, Long has a tendency to make some statements that could come back to haunt him. He mocked the plight of the uninsured ("Get out the crying towel") and claimed that 26 million people under 35 probably don't want health insurance anyway. Claiming that President Obama's healthcare plan might have taken his mother's life back in March of 2008 is also quite a strong charge. It's all done in the loving-aw-shucks Long way, but in a competitive race where a sliver of moderate Republicans could matter, those statements may rub some the wrong way.

On the other hand, Long is obviously attracting the attention of his opponents. Goodman's indirect but clear jab at Long's joke-making and his lack of experience is the first evidence he views Long as a threat. Goodman also identified himself as a "citizen-legislator" who ran his own business. The goal is to push back at Long's broader assertion that the rest of the field is just a bunch of pols. That'll be a tough argument for Goodman to sell. My guess is that his stronger argument is that he's a politician who's stood up to power (i.e. The Village Law). With cynicism in the air, Goodman probably needs to lay out more reasons why he won't just be a GOP establishment rubber stamp. Darrell Moore also had his own take on Long's "I'm not from the government theme". In fact, in touting his work as prosecutor he said, "No, I'm not from the government and here to help, I'm saying I have made your government work for you . . ." One year before the primary and Long has set the debate: I'm not the pol, they are. You're angry, and you know me, so it seems like a good time to try something new. His rivals see that this has selling potential, and they're gauging how to best respond. The more Long freelances, the more potential ammunition his opponents will have to pick apart later -- to try to show he's inexperienced, lacks substance or doesn't have the proper gravitas. But attacking Billy will be difficult task, because humor is a powerful defense.

The 7th District "Patriot" Primary: Long, Nodler & Goodman

LONG: MOM WOULDN'T BE SAVED UNDER 'OBAMACARE'

Auctioneer Billy Long repeated his charge Saturday that the government would deem his ailing mother not worth saving if President Obama's healthcare plan was in place today.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 13

Biggest Applause Line: Taking the pledge to limit his service to 12 years, or 6-terms

Red Meat Ranking (1 to 10 scale): 9

Standout Soundbite: "Twenty-six and a half million are under 35. They're never going to die. They're going to live to be 112. They don't want health insurance."

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All of the announced candidates for the 7th Congressional District spoke at KSGF's Patriot Day event in Springfield Saturday.

NODLER: DEMS HAVE OVERREACHED

State Sen. Gary Nodler predicted that Republicans would win the 2010 midterm elections because the Democratic Party has overreached and "frightened Americans" with an attempt to expand federal power and reduce personal freedoms.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 7

Biggest Applause Line: Asking veterans to stand to honor their courage and service

Red Meat Ranking: 3

Standout Soundbite: "That lesson is missing in far too many inner cities, where people are lead to believe that only the government can provide opportunity or a handout can provide security. That isn't true."

GOODMAN SWIPES LONG

State Sen. Jack Goodman took a veiled but intentional swipe at rival Billy Long, saying that the 7th District needs a Congressman willing to do more than "crack jokes" on the sidelines and "say no."

To drive his subtle point that Long doesn't have the experience necessary, Goodman also said he wouldn't need a staffer's help to interpret what certain bills mean.

To which Long (@auctnr1) wittily responded via TWITTER: "What did he mean by that? I'll ask a staffer."

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*
The swipe was not caught on the FlipCam due to storage capacity.

Applause Breaks During Speech: 0

Biggest Applause Line: Didn't receive applause during speech

Red Meat Ranking: 4

Standout Soundbite: "For most of the years I've been a citizen legislator, I too have been working to make a payroll every month at a small business that I own.

Saturday Showdown: Another 7th District Test

KISS THE RING

All of the announced candidates for the 7th Congressional District will face-off at KSFG's "Patriots in the Park" event in Springfield Saturday.

GOP contenders Sen. Jack Goodman, Auctioneer Billy Long, Prosecutor Darrell Moore, Sen. Gary Nodler and College Instructor Jeff Wisdom are all scheduled to speak in Fassnight Park from 12-2 p.m.

Wisdom, who is currently overseas, will address the crowd by phone, according to his campaign.

Independent candidate U.S. House candidate Dean Moore and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Purgason are also expected to speak.

Each candidate will get about 10 minutes to address the crowd, and it will be moderated by the flamboyant KSGF host Vincent David Jericho.

The event is another public test for the 7th District contenders who are vying for early enthusiasm and support. Insiders will be closely watching which candidate captures the mostly conservative crowd.

*PLACE YOUR BETS HERE*

12 OPEN QUESTIONS:

1. How many jokes Billy Long will deliver -- and if he's got any new ones.

2. What gets bashed more -- the stimulus OR government healthcare.

3. The kind of reception "the base" gives Darrell Moore.

4. Since Jericho is for Wisdom, how much of the crowd will be pro-Wisdom.

5. If any of them publicly praise Roy Blunt with the knowledge of Jericho's feud with the Congressman.

6. Who wins the sticker/sign ground war.

7. Who gets more applause Goodman or Long.

8. Who gets more applause Goodman or Nodler.

9. Which candidate delivers the most red meat for the right.

10. If any of the 7th District candidates clap for anything Purgason says.

11. Dean Moore's relevancy.

12. Which candidate has grown/sharpened his message the most since entering the race.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fourth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings CLICK HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) He remains at the top of the pack due to his establishment support, his solid fundraising and his gradual organizational growth. As one politico put it, Goodman is the insta-pol: Just add water. They won't be bragging about it or putting it on a banner, but Goodman is the clear, purified establishment candidate. The most impressive part about Goodman's 2nd quarter fundraising report was it was fueled by small donors, according to a Notebook analysis. That's proof he is running a grass-roots campaign. It also shows many of his donors probably haven't maxed out yet. Goodman will need the money for defense, because next year, he'll have a large target on his back.

2. Billy Long -- (Up 2) Boosted by an announcement speech that showcased his broad support, Long seems to be surging. The usual GOP establishment types weren't the faces at Long's announcement -- and that's the auctioneer's stealth strength. A TARGET BBQ observer writes, "I saw more than a few people at TARGET who no one seemed to know. They came in, wrote checks, and put Billy Long stickers on." The establishment types aren't laughing at the knee-slappers Billy is serving up. They think he's "all hat, no cattle." And the loyalists call him "Billy come lately," for never having been active in local GOP politics until he was running himself. But the anti-Billy buzz is starting to simmer only because he's a real and growing threat -- and those around long enough know it. To peg Long as a Springfield-centric candidate might also be a mistake. He's done 200 auctions a year from Poplar Bluff to Joplin, which means his rolodex is to be reckoned with. Right now, his entire candidacy is based on the fact that "he ain't one of them guys." How that wears with voters -- and whether Long can build a message of credible leadership around it -- will determine whether he rises or falls.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Down 1) Quick: What's longer? Gary Nodler's fundraising contacts or his enemies list? The Notebook thinks the wrap against Nodler may be a little unfair (he's been nothing but gracious, honest and fair with me.) But the stories about Nodler continue to circulate -- because he's got some enemies. A bigger question for Nodler is early organization. Some Republicans at Greene County's TARGET barbeque were wondering why Nodler didn't have a bigger staff presence, handing out stickers, pamphlets and signs. A source says he was also flying solo at the Watermelon Feed in Neosho. Maybe he's just being fiscally conservative with his campaign account in the off-year. The conventional wisdom among politicos is that Nodler doesn't need to WIN the district's largest county, he just needs to place second and rack it up in Joplin. But when mere geography is your strongest asset, it just invites your opponents to fight on your turf. Nodler's fundraising will be impressive, and he'll be in this until the end. But will the citizens of Springfield really cede their U.S. House seat to its red-headed stepchild of Joplin?

4. Darrell Moore -- (Up 1) In his most recent Tweet, Darrell Moore said the three top issues he's hearing about at the Ozarks Empire Fair are healthcare, cap and trade and earmarks. And if you were to sit down and talk to Greene County's prosecutor on any of these topics, you'd get an earful of wonkish-policy points filled with data. Go no further than Moore's campaign site and you realize Moore is a well-read candidate who's actually thought about the issues. But that only goes so far in retail politics. His speeches are a bit too professorial and prosecutorial. Loosening up and injecting some humor would go a long way. But that takes time. The buzz is that a recent poll showed Moore beating the rest of the field. But that's just based on name identification. Moore's problem isn't being known, it's being loved. Can the GOP really fall for the most moderate candidate in the field? You'll know Moore matters when somebody hits him.

5. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 2) Since early June, The Sarah Steelman show has gone dark. Speculation about her 2010 intentions have slowed. In the spring, she dominated stories about the U.S. Senate race. Now coverage of Steelman has been compressed into a one-liner: "Steelman is now seen as less likely to run for U.S. Senate." Yet, she's still the elephant in the room in the 7th District. Despite her Rolla residence, no candidate will feel better until Steelman unambiguously makes her plans clear. Steelman would seem to be swimming upstream at this point, against the clock. Most candidates are laps ahead on organization, fundraising and staffing. But the Steelmanites scoff at that notion. Why pay a consultant this early when you've got David Steelman? The family is said to be vacationing overseas right now, and if there is still a decision to be made, early fall would be a likely date to watch for.

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) It's tough to campaign when you are overseas serving our country. As a Naval Reserve, Wisdom is currently fulfilling his obligation in Bahrain, but is expected to be home by Labor Day. "It seems the congressional race in SW MO is all figured out, let me offer this caveat in the words of Ronald Reagan...you ain't seen nothin' yet!!," Wisdom writes on his FACEBOOK page. Wisdom isn't likely to win this race (He dissed Roy Blunt the day he announced), but his presence and loyal following among some in the Tea Party movement could force some of his opponents to answer uncomfortable questions. Here's to safe service overseas for Wisdom so he can stir it up when he returns home.

7. Dean Moore -- (----) How difficult is it for the Democratic Party to field a credible candidate in the ruby red 7th District? An independent announced his candidacy before someone in the oldest political party in operation. Chad Livengood reports that Highlandville businessman Dean Moore is running for the 7th District U.S. House seat. Moore's got a booth at the Empire Fair, where he's been listening to people frustrated with the two-party system. Problem for him is, the 7th Congressional District is primarily a one-party system, dominated by Republicans.

CQ: Long 2nd Nationally in Money Raised for Open Seats

CQ Politics ranks auctioneer Billy Long second in the amount of money raised among candidates for Congress seeking open seats.

Only 6th District Pennsylvania Democrat Doug Pike has raised more money than Long, according to CQ.

During the first quarter, Long donated $100,000 of his own money for a total of around $347,000.

"Most of these districts are so politically one-sided that the meaningful balloting will happen in primary elections, so for open-seat candidates, it’s essential to be well-funded for that stage of the campaigns," writes CQ's Greg Giroux.

CQ ranked the Top 10 -- State Sen. Jack Goodman, who is also running for the 7th District seat to replace Roy Blunt, is ranked 10th. His total: $184,000. Goodman raised all of his campaign money from individual donors, except for $6,500 that he received from PACs.

4 Congressional Hopefuls Make Their Pitch to Party Faithful

GOODMAN READIES FOR FIGHT

"I know I'm in for frustration, but if I don't face that frustration, I'm surrendering to it. And that, in Southwest Missouri, we never do."

LONG CHECKS THE BOXES

"I'm very much Right to Life . . . When they told me what an abortion was and what they did, it was jaw-dropping."

MOORE TOUTS FAMILIARITY

"The time for talk has come and gone. We must act. And I'm prepared to go and do in Washington what I've done for years here in Greene County."

NODLER CHANNELS HISTORY

"I would say that no Congressional district in the United States has a tradition of better solid conservative leadership than the 7th Congressional district."

***
Sen. Jack Goodman, auctioneer Billy Long, Prosecutor Darrell Moore and Sen. Gary Nodler spoke -- in that order -- to the Greene County TARGET Barbeque Saturday evening. Above is a snippet of the differing approaches each took to stand out before the crowd of Republican loyalists.