7th District Power Rankings

This is the eighth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

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The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Stable) Stability reigned over the last month, so Long stays a top the heap. He continues to raise money and land high profile backers. The auctioneer is also clearly the most visible candidate in the field, in part due to his prolific Tweeting of his whereabouts. (He's the @clairecmc of the GOP). Branson's Peter Herschend was a nice recent coup for Long, who doesn't want to be the frontrunner. But in 2010 he'll know he is pretty quickly.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) The Joplin State Senator relinquished his Appropriations Chairmanship and recently had what an ally calls "a very successful D.C. swing", including a big event that former Roy Blunt chief of staff and D.C. power-hitter Gregg Hartley put together. Is Nodler making inroads on Long's cash advantage during a tough 4th quarter? It's certainly on his holiday wish list.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) After dropping to his lowest ranking since April last month, things have been relatively quiet in Goodman-land. His hired gun, David Barklage isn't as keen on dishing on his candidate as some of the other advisers in the race. It's no secret that returning calls isn't the strength of the GOP's leading State Senate consultant. But it leaves his status with the campaign somewhat in doubt.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is struggling to raise money, but a mid-November poll shows the power of name identification. The Wilson Research Strategies survey of 301 likely primary voters is mostly meaningless in a scattered race 10 months away. But it also showed Moore tied with Nodler among those who've made up their mind. He also boasted the highest favorable rating ratio. As much as his rivals want the field narrowed, the prosecutor remains plugging along. And why would he not? "I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The tea party-toting populist conservative didn't even earn enough respect to be included in the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC's November poll. The outsider has a base of support, but there's no evidence it's growing.

6. Michael Wardell -- (Stable) Say this: The guy knows how to put together a press release. Always available for comment, Wardell wants to opine on every latest issue: Afghanistan, healthcare, Billy Long. He definitely wields intellectual power. The question now is, what's next?

7. Mike Moon -- (Stable) The other Mike, curiously, did make it into the SWMO Leadership PAC poll. Moon registered 2 percent, in poll with a 5.6 percent margin of error. Not bad, but not enough to rock our rankings.

Most 7th District Candidates Won't Be Attending Palinmania

Most of the Republican candidates running for Congress in the 7th District won't be attending Sarah Palin's events in the Ozarks Wednesday.

But auctioneer Billy Long will attend the speech and a special private V.I.P. meet and greet after her appearance at College of the Ozarks.

Palin will do a book signing at BORDERS from 10 a.m. to noon, then make a speech closed to the media at College of the Ozarks at 7 p.m.

The Notebook sent inquiries to all seven GOP contenders to see who would be attending Palin's Borders book signing or the college speech.

Here's what we found:

Sen. Jack Goodman: Not able to make either event due to previously scheduled obligations. Spokesman Miles Ross said he wasn't sure if Goodman had purchased the book. "He is currently reading a book by Senator Tom Coburn," said Ross.

Billy Long: Going to the speech, but probably not the book signing. The auctioneer said he also plans on attending a special dinner prior to the speech at the Keeter Center and a special V.I.P. meet and greet photo opportunity after her speech. The V.I.P ticket did require a donation to a student activity program, according to College of the Ozarks spokeswoman Elizabeth Andrews.

Sen. Gary Nodler: The Senator is currently out of the state in Washington. Spokesman Charles Poplstein said that trip prohibits him from attending either event.

Michael Wardell: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I would have if the tickets were not snapped up so fast," Wardell e-mailed. Said he plans on purchasing the book.

Mike Moon: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I wish I could but I'm not able to," Moon said. "There weren't tickets available and I'm working during the book signing." He said he has not purchased "Going Rogue" but is interested in reading it.

Jeff Wisdom: Does plan on attending the book signing, but not the speech. "I teach a Wednesday evening class at OTC," said Wisdom. The instructor said he does plan on purchasing more than one copy of Palin's book. "One for myself and the others for Christmas gifts. I will give one copy of the book to my dad," Wisdom said.

Darrell Moore: Plans on attending speech, but not the Borders book signing. Said he has no plans on purchasing Palin's book.

Icet & Schweich Trade Fire

TEMPERATURE RISING AFTER KY3 INTERVIEW

Rep. Allen Icet pledged to serve a full-term as State Auditor if elected next year and took a shot at his Republican rival for issuing "threats" during the primary contest.

Icet's comments come a day after his GOP opponent Tom Schweich told The Ky3 Political Notebook that he would serve a full-term, with the condition that the party unites around him in 2010 as the "consensus candidate." Watch the interview clip HERE.

"After we win next year, I will work hard to reach out to all Republicans to build a consensus effort to take back the Auditor's office," Icet said in a statement. "I will not hold any grudges. My opponent seems to think the best way to unite our party is through threats. That type of short-sighted selfish thinking does not strengthen parties, it destroys them," Icet went on.

A few hours later, Schweich sent out a statement, seemingly designed to change the storyline, commending Sen. Gary Nodler for relinquishing his Appropriations Committee chairmanship Friday.

The Notebook reported Thursday night that after months of speculation Nodler would step down, in order to avoid any potential conflicts while running for Congress.

"I commend Sen. Nodler for his decision to step down as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee while he seeks higher office. He has proven himself to be a man of ethics and integrity. There is no way an appropriations or budget chair running for higher office can avoid the appearance of impropriety while accepting contributions from lobbyists and special interests who have business in the budget process," Schweich said in a statement.

"The state auditor is required to be independent of all outside influences. Unfortunately, Rep. Icet. has chosen a different course. I encourage him to do the right thing and step down as budget chair while he pursues the office of state auditor," Schweich went on.

In an interview Thurday, Icet reaffirmed his decision to stay on as House Budget Chair and said GOP leadership have encouraged him to remain in the post in 2010 as lawmakers navigate an extremely difficult budgetary year.

Schweich has pledged to recuse himself from any audit involving a contributor to his campaign.

But Icet's campaign said that Schweich's comments signal that he views the Auditor office as a potential stepping-stone. "Though my opponent might view the job as a mere stepping-stone to get back inside the D.C. Beltway, I believe it's one of the most important jobs in Missouri - and a job worthy of my full attention," Icet said.

Republicans will choose between Icet and Schweich as their nominee next August. The winner will take on Democratic incumbent Susan Montee.

Nodler to Relinquish Budget Chairmanship Friday

Sen. Gary Nodler will relinquish his Appropriations Committee chairmanship Friday, according to a source with ties to State Senate staffing.

The decision has been expected for months, but Nodler has not given many hints on when he'd step down. He's been the Senate budget chair since 2007, and has touted that experience in his campaign for the 7th Congressional District.

In September, Nodler told The Notebook he was uncertain of his decision, but leaning "a certain direction."

On Thursday, Nodler said, "There's nothing I'm prepared to announce tonight."

"I'll be making a statement on some subject tomorrow," he added.

Pressed on his decision, Nodler replied, "I'm going to do what I'm going to do, when I'm going to do it."

Nodler is running against Sen. Jack Goodman, auctioneer Billy Long, Greene County prosecutor Darrell Moore and a host of other candidates for the 7th Congressional District's GOP nomination.

Missouri Republicans & Skelton Lament House Healthcare Vote

"This is history"
Democratic Congressman Ike Skelton joined Missouri Republicans in opposition to a massive healthcare overhaul that narrowly cleared the U.S. House late Saturday.

Excerpts of each statement in order of reception:

7th District Congressional candidate Jack Goodman: "Very disappointing" "This legislation is loaded with job-killing taxes, mandates that create over 100 new bureaucracies, slashes Medicare funding and will further strain state budgets around the country. This is not fixing the problem, but legislating new problems in search of a solution."

4th District Congressman Ike Skelton: "Not the right balance" "I am concerned about the impact the legislation could have on rural hospitals and doctors. The proposed reductions to Medicare reimbursement could further squeeze the budgets of rural health care providers. One solution might be for Congress to ensure that rural Missourians understand how any new legislation will affect them and their families."

7th District Congressman Roy Blunt: "Budget-busting" "It's families and patients who will suffer most under this government takeover of health care. This bill costs more than $1 trillion, increases premium costs, puts a bureaucrat between you and your doctor, and pays for most of it with Medicare cuts and job-killing tax hikes."

7th District Congressional candidate Billy Long: "Playing politics" "If you ask career politicians to come up with a solution to health care you shouldn't be surprised when their solution is simply more government, more taxes and more bureaucracy. This bill is at best bad policy and at worst unconstitutional. I would have voted against it."

4th District Congressional candidate Bill Stouffer: "People have had enough" "This bill is the wrong answer to the wrong question. Instead of growing government, we should have focused on common sense solutions like medical malpractice reform, Association Health Plans and getting rid of the state lines to create real competition."

7th District Congressional candidate Gary Nodler: "Dangerous bill" "The bill passed last night in the House by Pelosi and the liberal Democrats is a step towards single payer, government run health care. If passed by the Senate, the bill will mortgage our childrens' financial future via exploding deficits and ruin Americans' health care."

7th District Congressional candidate Michael Wardell: "Ridiculous . . . egregious" "Our current health care system is certainly not perfect, but it is far better than this socialist-inspired prescription. If this bill becomes law, it will be the greatest government debacle ever visited upon the American people, who in retribution will once again consign the Democratic Party to the minority in Congress."

7th District Power Rankings

This is the seventh installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Up 1) For the first time in five months, The Notebook has a new candidate atop the Power Rankings. Auctioneer Billy Long returns to the number one ranking for the first time since the list debuted back on April 30th. Long has been a tour de force at raising cash, building up just under a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over his next closest opponent. He's mixing an outsider, non-politician image with GOP insider money. And he's raising eyebrows from Washington, D.C. to Jefferson City. Long has charm, money, no voting record and the ability to run a populist campaign in a year that people are yearning for an outsider. Long doesn't want to lead the rankings. It's easier, after all, to thrive at the outsider. But being on top also guarantees a bulls eye on his back. Long's biggest strength might also be his biggest vulnerability: to shoot straight from the hip. But if he maintains a large resource advantage, he'll be able to answer any attack that comes his way. With a wink, nod and funny one-liner. The Billy Long way.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Up 1) Nodler returns to the second slot for the first time since August. His 3rd quarter fundraising failed below expectations and he's expected to relinquish his Senate Appropriations chairmanship soon, possibly even before Thanksgiving. But Nodler's pick-up of Roy Blunt's former chief of staff Gregg Hartley gave him some positive news to cap off the month. Hartley's D.C. connections will inevitably help Nodler raise cash in the beltway. But his blessing raises a larger question about where Blunt's allegiance lies in the 7th. "Hartley doesn't do anything without talking to Roy first," said one 7th District politico. Is Hartley's support a sign that Team Blunt is switching their allegiance to Nodler? Is Nodler now seen as the establishment's best chance at stopping Long? Now Nodler needs to show he can keep pace with Long's fundraising to earn that slot in the championship bout.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Down 2) Goodman falls to his lowest ranking since the Power Rankings began back in April. Some of his drop is self-inflicted, but part of it is a vicious whisper campaign that generated bad buzz for a candidate already reeling from a bad fundraising quarter. His burn rate is much too high, much too soon, so campaign consultant David Barklage has/will be taken off the list of expenses. Now Goodman has to figure out how not only to keep pace financially, but to boost his Mojo and convince skeptics he still and will be in the game. It's too early to write off Goodman, who was the leader of the Power Rankings for the last five straight months. He has the strongest grassroots team in place and still exerts loyalty in those outlying counties of Taney, Lawrence and Barry. No one around has a bad word to say about Jack. But the sentences involving him are now ending with, "Is he tough enough? Can he fight back?"

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is now being talked about a more of a spoiler than a viable contender to with the 7th. His name identification is still tops in Greene County. So who does that hurt most? We know Moore's presence is good for Nodler. But who does he siphon more votes away from? Goodman or Long. A smart politico outside the 7th says Moore hurts Long the most, because he takes right out of Billy's base of Greene County. It's too early to begin talking deals, but Moore could play kingmaker in a tight dicey race. And remember, no smart kingmaker cuts a deal without getting something in return.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The Notebook caught up with Wisdom at Tuesday night's anti-pension sales tax gathering downtown. After doing some radio with Vincent David Jericho, Wisdom worked the tables, quietly introducing himself to mostly college students, sipping on lattes. Did election night 2009 prove that the tea party movement isn't as potent and organized in southwest Missouri as suggested? If so, that's a setback for Wisdom's populist campaign.

6. Michael Wardell -- (----) The Nixa business owner and former Marine is articulate and thoughtful. And at his announcement, in one sitting, he unveiled more specifics than any of his rivals. Wardell said he got in the race because he was sick of hearing the red meat and empty rhetoric. He's furiously sending out releases in an attempt to break through the fray. But his promise to visit the district's twenty-some counties over the next few weeks (even though there's only 10) shows he has some outreach and catching up to do.

7. Mike Moon -- (Down 1) We haven't heard much out of Moon since he entered the race. But he does have a cool website that pops up a moon over the Capitol. And on his Facebook page, he's sitting on the trunk of an elephant. But if he held an official announcement kick-off, we could at least get him on Ky3 for 30 seconds.

Wardell Rips Nodler For Comments on Lobbyists

7th District Republican Congressional candidate Michael Wardell called Sen. Gary Nodler's comments about the influence of lobbyists on campaigns "astounding" and said it exemplifies "so many of our problems."

On Thursday, while explaining his endorsement from Washington, D.C. lobbyist Gregg Hartley, Nodler told The Notebook that lobbyists ties to candidates and campaign contributors are a normal part of the political system.

"You're not going to find any significant contributor base that isn't tied to a lobbyist base. Any candidate who's raised any substantial money, has accepted money from lobbyists, people who have been lobbyists, paid lobbyists or employed lobbyists," Nodler said. You can read his entire remarks HERE.

Wardell called that remark "astounding." "Based on what he said, one would think 'lobbying up' is a qualification for holding congressional office," Wardell said Friday.

"Nodler implies lobbyists go with the territory, that their support is an indication of your strength as a candidate or office-holder; nothing could be further from the truth. What you need to get elected and get things done in Washington, DC is the support of the people you represent," Wardell continued.

"The grip lobbyists have on Congress is the source of so many of our problems. At worst, Senator Nodler is representing the wrong people at the expense of his constituents. At best, he has a political tin ear.

Wardell did not make any specific pledges about who he would not take money from. He only said he would put his constituents against "special interests." Nodler said he wasn't being critical of how people went about raising money, but just pointed out that most campaigns have some type of ties to lobbyists.

Wardell and Nodler are two of seven announced Republican candidates running to replace Congressman Roy Blunt in the 7th Congressional District.

Hartley Sends E-mail to GOPers Touting Nodler, Dinging Long

"You can't be partly pregnant . . ."

Gregg Hartley, who endorsed Sen. Gary Nodler for Congress Tuesday night, has sent an e-mail to 7th District Republicans, urging them to sign on to the campaign.

In the note, Congressman Roy Blunt's former longtime chief of staff also suggests a potential weakness of auctioneer Billy Long's campaign.

"The pundits would tell you Billy Long is in the lead and he sure has had some momentum," Hartley wrote in the e-mail forwarded to The Notebook.

"He is playing the outsider role but his campaign structure sends a different signal," Hartley goes on.

Hartley, who used to live in Missouri but now works as a lobbyist with Cassidy & Associates in Washington, D.C. said he did not intend to get involved in the 7th District primary, but that this campaign is personal to him.

"This is an important campaign. The candidate who wins the primary wins the seat. Congressmen Gene Taylor, Mel Hancock and Roy Blunt have built the seventh into one powerful seat. It is more than just one of 435. There are expectations of the one who holds the seat to live up its history. In Missouri, the 7th is the fulcrum which has leveraged tremendous growth statewide in GOP power. It is the traditional cradle of conservative Republic belief in Missouri and votes," Hartley wrote.

"I think it really matters who follows Roy," he added.

Nodler said he met with Hartley this past weekend and said he appreciates his support and welcomes it. Hartley said that while he and Nodler have not always been on the same team in the past, the Joplin Senator is best prepared to fill Blunt's shoes.

"I have known him for 30 years. Gary and I have not always agreed on campaigns or issues, and we won’t in the future. But he will do a strong job as the Congressman for the Seventh. I am going to support his efforts and endorse his campaign. Not as lobbyist or a vested interested here in DC, but as a Missourian, a former chief of staff to the Congressman from Southwest Missouri and as someone who cares deeply about the difference he can make in the Republican House Conference. I hope you will consider doing the same," Hartley wrote.

Hartley won't have a formal role with Nodler's campaign, but is expected to provide advice.

NODLER ON LOBBYIST TIES

"No one in the nation's capitol -- outside Congressman Blunt -- knows the district better than Gregg Hartley," Nodler said.

"Gregg is very close to Congressman Blunt. He managed many of his campaigns, so he understands the district and the demands of the office. He's a lobbyist in Washington D.C. and knows a lot of folks both inside and outside of government," Nodler said.

Asked whether he was worried about the perception of receiving an endorsement from a Washington, D.C. based lobbyist, Nodler said every major candidate in the 7th District race has some ties to lobbyists.

"You're not going to find any significant contributor base that isn't tied to a lobbyist base. Any candidate who's raised any substantial money, has accepted money from lobbyists, people who have been lobbyists, paid lobbyists or employed lobbyists," Nodler said.

When suggested that Sen. Jack Goodman's campaign donations have been smaller, Nodler replied, "For a time, he had a relationship with David Barklage. He's a registered lobbyist." Barklage is running Sen. Goodman's campaign.

"You can't be partly pregnant. I know some people would like to be hypocritical about it. I'm not criticizing it. I'm just saying people throw allegations out there without looking in the mirror."

Nodler: Goodman Voted Against Jobs on EaglePicher

EXPLAINS EAGLEPICHER FUNDING & HITS GOODMAN

"That line is Goodman propaganda . . ."

Joplin State Senator Gary Nodler said there was never a specific appropriation for EaglePicher this past legislative session and accused his 7th District opponent Sen. Jack Goodman of opposing job creation when he voted against the bill containing funds for the company.

"There was no appropriation for EaglePicher. There's nothing in the bill that specified that. There was a $50 million dollar allocation to the Department of Economic Development. And to date, no one has gotten it," Nodler said, in response to a story published by The Notebook Tuesday night.

"That line is the Goodman propaganda line, a Goodman campaign theme. But it's untrue," Nodler added.

On Tuesday night, former Roy Blunt chief of staff Gregg Hartley endorsed Nodler for Congress. The Notebook reported that Hartley, a lobbyist, has represented EaglePicher and that Nodler helped land $25 million dollars for the company during this past legislative session.

But Nodler, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, said the language in the specific legislation of House Bill 22 did not single out EaglePicher, and that it was state officials in the Department of Economic Development who recommended the money be loaned to two high-tech battery plants, one of them being EaglePicher.

The actual wording in the bill, never mentions EaglePicher, but is clearly targeted for "for not more than two new manufacturing company locations or existing manufacturing company expansions that use existing battery technologies."

Nodler said he never had a conversation with Hartley or any EaglePicher employee about the $25 million dollar appropriation. He said the first he knew Hartley had a relationship with Eagle Picher was this past weekend when the two met for dinner. "I don't monitor Cassidy's reporting or clients. I didn't know he had a relationship with EaglePicher until the other night," Nodler said.

Between 2007 and 2008, campaign finance documents show that EaglePicher donated $1,200 to Nodler.

During the interview Wednesday, Nodler said he doubted EaglePicher could even qualify for the money if it was released.

"Last time I checked Eagle Picher has not met the job creation target necessary to qualify for the loan," Nodler said.

But in his May 11th Capitol report, Nodler touted the $25 million dollar appropriation for "an exciting project" that could create hundreds of new jobs.

"EaglePicher Inc., a battery manufacturer, has a research and development facility in Joplin and is expected to receive a $25 million loan, which will essentially become a grant when the company meets certain commitments such as creating at least 500 jobs in the area and spending $150 million on the project. This expansion is an opportunity to expand high-tech jobs and strengthen the economy in our area," Nodler wrote.

Gov. Jay Nixon's administration said the money has not been released because EaglePicher has not yet met all the qualifiers to attain the forgivable loan.
Several capitol reporters have compared the EaglePicher funding to the federal earmarking process, where oversight and transparency is often lacking. On Wednesday, Nodler defended his vote for the legislation and stressed the $25 million dollars was a just a loan. "It was not a grant. It was not a gift. It was not corporate welfare. The state would recover the full amount," Nodler said.

He also took aim at his rival Goodman for voting against the legislation. "One Senator from our district did vote against 400 to 600 jobs. He was the one opposed to job creation in Southwest Missouri," Nodler said, referring to Goodman. "There's absolutely no justification for opposing it."

In a statement provided to The Notebook, Goodman said he stood by his vote against the spending bill that tapped into federal stimulus dollars. "It had tens of millions in pork barrel spending that we cannot afford with the current state shortfall and federal deficit. I will consistently fight to stop such bills in Congress," said Goodman.

"I believe lower taxes create jobs, not greater government spending. That is why I opposed President Obama’s so-called stimulus bill and will oppose any additional stimulus packages," Goodman added.

Nodler and Goodman are battling five other Republicans for the 7th District Congressional GOP nomination.

Hartley Endorses Nodler for Congress

HARTLEY ALSO REPRESENTS JOPLIN BUSINESS

Congressman Roy Blunt's former chief of staff Gregg Hartley endorsed State Sen. Gary Nodler for Congress via Twitter late Tuesday night.

The backing from the politically connected Hartley comes at a time when some Republicans were privately speculating about the long-term future of Nodler's campaign. To some it's an unusual move from a Washington, D.C. lobbyist who has maintained a relatively low-profile in Missouri politics and not lived in the district for years.

"I endorse Gary Nodler and will actively work with folks in SW Missouri to ensure his election; I urge others to join this important campaign," Hartley wrote on his Twitter page. "I believe the best candidate in primary has the experience as a former congressional aide, business advocate & current legislative leader," he wrote.

Hartley is the vice chairman and chief operating officer of Cassidy & Associates, a high-powered lobbyist group in Washington that currently employs former Gov. Matt Blunt and former Democratic operative Roy Temple. Hartley was Roy Blunt's closest advisor in Congress for 18 years.

In his posts, Hartley suggested that Nodler, the Senate Appropriations Chair, would be the best Republican able to preserve the "unique influence of the 7th."

But Hartley also has his own influence and interests to protect. Hartley's Cassidy & Associates has represented Eagle-Picher Technologies in Joplin between 2004 and 2009. Federal lobbyist disclosure reports show that Eagle-Picher has paid Cassidy between $70,000 and $120,000 a quarter for work during that time period.

During this past legislative session, Nodler landed $25 million dollars for the company. He disputed that the money was an "earmark," but critics labeled it "corporate welfare."

Notably, Sen. Jack Goodman, a rival of Nodler's in the 7th District primary, voted against the $25 million dollar provision for Eagle-Picher.

According to Hartley's Twitter page, he was visiting Southwest Missouri to meet with clients to discuss "batteries, education and manufacturing." He also said he met with Sen. Nodler during his trip.

Inside the 7th District Numbers

While auctioneer Billy Long is the undisputed 7th District Republican Congressional fundraising leader, Sen. Jack Goodman boasted the most donors who gave over $100 and Sen. Gary Nodler raised the most money outside the district.

A quick 3rd Quarter breakdown -- based on reportable contributions of $100 or more:
Statistics are based on money raised between July and September by each candidate in Springfield, Joplin and outside the Congressional district. The burn rate is the percentage of money raised that's already been spent.

BILLY LONG
Springfield $49,450 (1)
Joplin $2,400 (2)
Outside the 7th $14,850 (2)
Total Itemized Contributors 105 (2)
Key contributors: Postitronics President John Gentry, David O'Reilly of O'Reilly Auto Parts, Investor Stephen Plaster and SRC CEO John Stack.
Burn Rate 10%

GARY NODLER
Springfield $4,450 (3)
Joplin $16,450 (1)
Outside the 7th $29,350 (1)
Total Itemized Contributors 93 (3)
Key contributors: Springfield Attorney Tad Morlan, former Sen. John Danforth, Killian Construction CEO William Killian
Burn Rate 20%

JACK GOODMAN
Springfield $12,215 (2)
Joplin $730 (3)
Outside the 7th $3,275 (3)
Total Itemized Contributors 225 (1)
Key contributors: Attorney Dee Wampler, Tourism Commission Kelly Swanson, Greene County Commission candidate Conrad Griggs, Greene County Prosecutor candidate Steve Fenner
Burn Rate 40%

Nodler Raises $77K

Sen. Gary Nodler reported raising $77,276 during the third fundraising quarter -- a total that rival camps view as surprisingly low for the Senate Appropriations Chair.

Nodler has $144,042 on hand to spend -- which lags behind Billy Long's spending money by $261,119.

Nodler's campaign reported having 229 donors in the 3rd quarter with an average donation size of $337. But Long supporters view Nodler's total as a huge win for their campaign, which did not hold a single organized fundraiser during the third quarter. In May, before announcing his candidacy, Nodler told Roll Call that he would be able to raise "more money in more parts of this Congressional district than any other candidate."

"I will have a less regional fundraising report in the sense that I think you'll see contributions from every part of the Congressional district," Sen. Gary Nodler said at the time.

Sen. Jack Goodman's fundraising numbers have not yet been released.

Nodler: Firing Not Neccessarily A Resolution to DNR Problems

Gov. Jay Nixon has extended the suspension of Department of Natural Resources Director Mark Templeton until an internal investigation surrounding E.Coli-gate is complete -- something Republican Sen. Gary Nodler called for last week.

While Nodler said the entire controversy could "reach the level of a firing offense," the Joplin Republican said he does not want to see a "scapegoating process."

*WATCH GIVE & TAKE ABOVE*

"We don't need to be in the business of looking for some kind of satisfaction of our anger by chopping off someone's head," Nodler said last week. "I won't accept a firing as a resolution to the problem."

MEANWHILE: The Missouri Senator leading a review of the delayed E.Coli results is using stronger language. Sen. Brad Lager said Wednesday there's been an "organized cover-up" by the Department of Natural Resources and and outside investigation may be warranted.

Nodler: Stimulus Likely Necessary to Fund Career Ladders

State Senate Appropriations Chair Gary Nodler said that Governor Nixon will likely need to use federal stimulus money next year in order to fund an education program that pays teachers for extracurricular duties.

He also criticized the way state lawmakers have funded the Career Ladders program for the last two decades and took shots at the Democratic House Minority leader for not understanding the appropriation process.

*WATCH CLIPS ABOVE*

Nodler's main points from his Springfield presser:

• A call to end the retroactive payment process that funds Career Ladders AFTER the fiscal year appropriation process is compete: "This is a broken part of the state appropriations process," Nodler said.
• Teachers should know by January -- after the consenus general revenue estimate is revealed -- if this year's program will be funded.
• Governor Nixon should consider tapping federal stimulus dollars to pay for this year's program through a supplemental budget appropriation.
• His argument that fully funding this year's program is LESS critical than fixing the overall funding mechanism.

BELOW: SO IS NODLER NOW PRO-STIMULUS?

"We could make lemonade out of a lemon"

AND: LAMBASTING LEVOTA

"I would've been happy to explain the budget process to Representative LeVota if he had actually had an appetite to learn something about it."

GOVERNOR NIXON'S OFFICE STATEMENT:
"Gov. Nixon supports career ladder, which is why he funded it last year, and will put money in his budget for it next year," said Nixon spokesman Jack Cardetti.

LEVOTA FIRES BACK -- TAGS NODLER AS FLIP-FLOPPER:

"House Democrats are pleased Senator Gary Nodler no longer wants to impose pay cuts on Missouri teachers. In fact, Senator Nodler’s reversal is all the more stunning due to his switch from wanting no funding at all for the Career Ladder teacher pay program to wanting to double fund it in the current state budget," said Rep. Paul LeVota in a statement. "Senator Nodler’s attempt at political damage control notwithstanding, House Democrats remain committed to the fiscally responsible policy of funding Career Ladder every year -- but only once a year."

FULL STORY Tonight on Ky3 News @ 10

7th District Power Rankings

This is the sixth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Scroll down to the bottom of the 7th District GOP committee website and you'll find a banner graphic for Sen. Jack Goodman. Notice there's not one for Sen. Gary Nodler. This may be an innocent meaningless symbol, but nonetheless one that adds to the perception of Goodman opponents that Mt. Vernon's man is the chosen one. To the faithful, Goodman is visible, working hard and holding firm. No real spark yet, but that's not yet necessary when your organization is in ship shape and gliding above the others. Look for another solid fundraising quarter for Goodman. (Slow and steady wins the race). And if he's somehow able to edge Gary Nodler in money bags, it would be a tremendous coup.

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Based on his Tweets, Billy Long is everywhere. At the Ducks Unlimited dinner in Joplin. At the Tea Party rally on a Saturday afternoon. At the Polk County GOP meeting in Bolivar. "If there's a Republican event that's attractive, he's there," notes a supporter. "He's trying to get out and meet people. You'd be surprised that some people don't think you're serious if you're not an elected official," that supporter went on. Billy has made clear he'll have the money. (Last month, he netted Sarah Steelman fundraiser/ally Jeff Layman). Now he's trying to prove he's got the mojo. For the past few months, that's meant less dialing for dollars and more pounding the pavement. He has solidified himself as the happy outsider, happy to march to Washington just to personally tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "No." The auctioneer stays slotted second, and as the underdog, wouldn't mind being lower.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) As far as fundraising goes, Nodler should own the third quarter. This will be his first full three-month run at the money pot as an official candidate. This summer and early fall, he hasn't had to balance campaigning with Senatorial duties any longer. And it could be his last full quarter as Senate Appropriations Chair. If Nodler doesn't win the third quarter, look for rival camps to seize on it as a significant letdown. Then again, aides from several camps have already warned The Notebook that it's fundraising predictions are too high. "It's brutal out there," said one of the economic environment. Still, if this stays a 3-man ran race like it's shaping up to be, Nodler will have the money, clout and campaign experience to fight the good fight.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) After a solid speech in August, Moore's lack of visibility has perplexed some insiders. He was the only major candidate not in attendance at the Missouri Republican Assembly dinner featuring Joe Wilson. And while it may be unfair to judge the frequency of ones Twitter posts, Moore did have a month long gap between between Sept. 9th and Oct. 4th with no activity. Hopefully for his sake, he was raising money. (But word is he hates asking for it.) Still, if he's to break into the top tier, he'll need to put up a respectable number this quarter. Even some of Moore's supporters will acknowledge the Greene County prosecutor isn't very comfortable shaking hands and kissing babies. But that's a requirement to win this type of hands-on race. Going through the '09-'10 budget line-by-line is impressive, but pure name identification can only carry a candidate so far.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) Tanned and back from Bahrain, you might have thought Wisdom would have capitalized on his service overseas with some type of creative welcome home event that would've caught media attention. Wisdom is an impressive individual, goes the buzz . . . And he would make a terrific candidate for state representative. Still, Wisdom has no real reason to get out of this race and still attracts a loyal slice of the Fair Tax/anti-big government conservatives that others like Long would love to snatch up. Sure, it's ripe for an outsider to win this year. But Wisdom is like the 15 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. He's got backers, but needs a lot to go right to knock off each of the big dogs. His biggest problem, observes one young Republican? "He is surrounded by people telling him he can win."

6. Mike Moon (----) Stalking horse or real deal? It's a mystery to some. The 50-year-old Moon is the most recent entry into the 7th District fray. We do know he works at St. John's Fitness Center but resides in Lawrence County. Does that mean he siphons votes from Goodman? Too soon to tell. But he could do some creative bumper sticker slogans with that catchy name.

Nodler Not Yet "Certain" Whether He'll Give Up Budget Chair

CAPITOL OBSERVERS BELIEVE HE'LL LIKELY RELINQUISH ROLE

State Senator and Congressional candidate Gary Nodler said he's not yet settled on a decision over whether to give up his Budget chairmanship next year, but is leaning "a certain direction."

Nodler, who was appointed Appropriations Chair in 2007, has touted his experience in crafting a budget in his campaign for the 7th Congressional District.

But allies of Nodler's opponents believe the Jasper County Senator should and will ultimately step down from the powerful chairmanship in order to avoid any potential conflicts as he ramps up his U.S. House campaign.

"I'll decide well before the session starts," Nodler said in an interview. "It wouldn't be appropriate for me to make a public statement now before I meet with members of my caucus."

Nodler said his final decision could come by November. "I've not made a certain decision yet. I'm leaning in a certain direction," he said.

Sen. Rob Mayer, vice-chair of Appropriations, said he's spoken to Nodler about the chairmanship on a few occasions over the past year.

"He has indicated that at some point later this year, he'd look at whether or not to return to the position or step down," Sen. Mayer said. "He said he'd make a decision later in the year."

Mayer, of Dexter, said that Senate GOP leader Charlie Shields is well aware of his desire to become chairman if Nodler chooses to step down.

Some of Nodler's opponents have privately suggested that the Senator is hanging onto the chairmanship for as long as possible for fundraising purposes.

House Budget Chair Allen Icet seems determined to hang on to his powerful position in the lower chamber as he runs for State Auditor next year. But supporters of Icet's primary opponent, Tom Schweich, have cried fowl. "It brings into question the concept of pay to play," GOP donor Neal Etheridge told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently.

Nodler said he's received no pressure from Senate leadership to step aside. But multiple sources say that Nodler will likely relinquish the chairmanship before the year is out.

"I've got a pretty good idea of how it's going to play out," Nodler said. "It's just a bit premature to talk about it right now."

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fifth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) For those of you volatility hounds, this is a snoozer. Goodman remains numero uno, because after a fair amount of reportage, The Notebook found there wasn't enough compelling evidence to drop the Mount Vernon Senator, despite increasing talk about his mediocre performances in public settings. "The guy is weak in social settings," writes one Republican. But he does have a ground game in place that's shoring up establishment support in counties across the district. Predictably, they love him in the counties he represents: "He's a gentleman for the people. He's for all types of people, the rich, the poor and the in between," gushes Barry County GOP vice-chair Barbara White. "Jack's the only one paying attention to us," says Stone County GOP vice-chair Connie Johnson. "I'm not hearing anybody talk about anyone else," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George. "But if they're not for Jack, I probably don't hang out with them," she chuckles. Goodman's been griping he hasn't been getting a fair shake with the press -- but see the pattern here? Women love him. I bet he polls better with them. His looks, his lighter touch. But for the men out there -- and the angry and tired -- he'll still have to answer that essential question: What real reason do I have to get excited and vote for you. Or as Sarah Steelman would say, "another white guy in a suit."

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Long was one of the big winners at the Patriots in the Park rally, and his Tweets give an impression of an active, aggressive campaign with growing momentum. His biggest compliment in August came when Goodman took a shot at him in public, suggesting 7th District voters need more than just a jokester who's dependent on advisers. GOPers say tension is building between the Long and Goodman camps and that the two men are noticeably not shaking hands at events together. Goodman has heard the footsteps as Long has toned his political muscle this summer -- his repertoire, his fundraising, his retail politics. But the fast-talking and tweeting auctioneer still seems a bit foreign to some. When The Notebook asked Lawrence County GOP chair James Young what he thought of Long's candidacy, he replied, "From what I hear, I don't know people feel he has the political expertise to accomplish a lot." But others notice he's becoming a threat. "I've been impressed by the amount of money he's raised," said Taney County GOP Chair Buddy Roberts. "For a no-name in the political arena, somebody out there is listening to him." Ironically enough, I think the Long camp is content to hear both of those statements. The most important thing Long has to do over the next several months is build a district-wide grassroots organization to rival Goodman's.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) Nodler rounds out the big three, and his allies think it's absurd the Power Rankings place him behind BOTH Goodman and Long. The Joplin Senator has been spending a good chunk of time in Greene County, and his team seems confident that Jasper will safely fall in line. He also has some high-dollar fundraisers lined up, which should make his next quarterly finance report stand out. But the main arguments for Nodler's success continue to be fundraising and geography and not personal likability. "I have never felt Gary was that big of a threat because of his lack of popularity," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George, an open Goodman supporter. "Sometimes I wonder how Gary continues to be re-elected. You never hear anybody say positive things about him," adds George. Ouch. (Calls to Jasper & Newton County chairs were not returned.) "I'm not sure how many people know of him," says Christian County GOP chair Ed Merritt. "I'd say Jack and Billy are probably the two frontrunners," Merritt said. To be sure, Nodler has his slice of the establishment pie. But over the entire district, it doesn't appear to be larger than Goodman's.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor has already shown signs of improvement in his stump speech, as he was able to rally the conservative Patriot Day crowd. But in a Notebook survey of county chairs and other insiders, Moore's name came up more often in counties west of Greene than Long's did. Chalk that up to Moore's powerful name ID. Wonder when the other candidates start complaining about Moore's free TV time as prosecutor? Either way, Moore's largest obstacle remains constant: how to break into the top three.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Up 1) Despite his close ties to Vincent David Jericho, it's tough to be overseas and compete with the big dogs. Still, Wisdom's eloquence helps him every time he's able to get in front of an audience. "I'm impressed by by a young individual who wants to make a change," says Taney County GOP chair Buddy Roberts. Wisdom has been telling his supporters that he can beat the others in a debate. But he's got to be here to debate. His campaign tells the Notebook that Wisdom will return to Springfield next week and be ready to go.

6. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 1) I'm thinking 2012. You?

7. The 'Other' Candidate -- (----)There's all this chatter that a new candidate is about to jump in the race. Does anyone out there believe another candidate -- besides Steelman -- could jump in this late and make a credible case for victory?

Steele Stumble Exposes Far Right Rift With GOP Establishment

INCIDENT OVERBLOWN?
BUSIEK: STEELE SHOULD'VE 'PUT A STOP TO IT'
CANDIDATES STRADDLE JERICHO TIGHTROPE
THE RNC'S 'TACTICAL MISTAKE'

The fracas over Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele's appearance on Vincent David Jericho's radio program illustrates the power of political exaggeration as well as a more instructive rift between some grass-root, populist conservatives and establishment Republicans in Southwest Missouri.

And Jericho's repeated inflammatory statements about Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt also presents a tricky tightrope for the GOP candidates running to replace him.

Steele is still dealing with national political fallout from his reaction to Jericho's laundry list of accusations against the GOP's likely U.S. Senate nominee.

On Friday morning, the conservative KSFG talk show host accused Blunt of "committing adultery multiple times" and amending homeland security legislation to benefit his second wife, a Washington lobbyist. "Guys like Papa Blunt make us sick to our stomachs," Jericho said, in what was a fairly typical riff for his program.

Lost in much of the coverage though, is that Jericho concluded his thought speaking about the page scandal involving former Florida Congressman Mark Foley. "You had the page boy scandal, you had all of that crap, and nobody stands up to it, and says, 'this is crap,'"Jericho went on, before making a reference to men acting like boys "who can't behave themselves."

Steele's initial response -- "I mean, I agree with you" -- is earning himself political fire from Democrats and scorn from some Missouri Republicans. "When stuff gets in the crapper, you got to clean it out," said Steele, leaving the impression to many that he was referring directly to Blunt.

"I'm very disappointed," said 7th Congressional District executive director Mavis Busiek. "I do not think Mr. Steele had a handle on the situation. A journalist never has the right to attack a person's character on something he knows nothing about. Mr. Steele should've put a stop to it right then and there and ended the interview abruptly," Busiek added.

Former Blunt chief of staff Gregg Hartley wrote on Twitter that Steele should apologize to Blunt and resign over the remarks.

Another Republican operative muttered that Steele helped cut "an automatic commercial," for Blunt's 2010 Democratic rival, Robin Carnahan.

But other Republicans think the transcript looks worse than hearing the entire interview and that the left cynically and successfully elevated a minor gaafe into a larger controversy for the GOP.

"When I first saw the transcript of the interview on a liberal blog site, I figured Steele was just sticking his foot in his mouth," said Patrick Tuohey, who runs the conservative website, The Missouri Record. "But now that I listen to the audio, I don't think there is much here. The specific talk that Steele was reacting to involved Rep. Foley and the leadership that let it pass. Steele was probably just happy to have a chance to squeeze some words in," Tuohey said.

"This particular episode is silliness that won't have legs and we'll be on to something else in a week," he added.

Conservative Kyle Dowden, a Jericho fan, also said that Steele's comments were being "made out as bigger than they really were." "Michael showed some integrity and gave himself credibility by not just defending the members of his party. He could've easily given the typical D.C. sound byte and avoided the question. He didn't," Dowden said.

But Dowden represents a slice of the conservative movement in Southwest Missouri that remains largely Republican, but anti-establishment and in some cases, anti-Blunt. It is the group that Jericho has both cultivated and depended on to fuel his following on his morning radio show.

"I have voted for Roy and Matt (Blunt) in every election they have been on the ballot," explained Dowden. But, I've been losing faith in Roy, especially since he ditched his wife in favor of the lobbyist that Jericho referenced. I remember attending the press conference when Matt announced his candidacy for governor. There was a coolness in the air as it related to Roy and Matt's mother. Everyone was aware that Roy was baggage for Matt's campaign," Dowden said.

"I think we voters have to ask the question, 'Is it possible for a man who sells out his family for pleasure also able to sell out his beliefs and constituents for a kickback?' I think it's possible. That's why character and integrity matter," Dowden went on.

The personal remarks about Blunt's private life are part of an undercurrent that Jericho has used to tap into, to make his case that the Congressman isn't "one of us."

But Jericho is also in a long-running feud with Busiek, who he views as a dictatorial gatekeeper who won't embrace newer and younger conservatives who want to be part of the local GOP structure.

"If you don't kiss Mavis Busiek's ring, and if you aren't 800 years old, they don't let you in," Jericho said on his program during the Steele interview.

"What I make of it, is he must be fairly desperate. No one has to kiss anyone's ring to get in the party. He says these things to get attention. He seems to want to draw a divide with young conservatives and the following I have. But he doesn't seek the truth," Busiek said.

"I'm not 19 years-old, but for 743, I'm pretty well preserved," she added, hitting back at the age crack.

Jericho's viewpoint and following by no means represents a majority of 7th District Republicans. But some political observers say growing discontent with the Republican Party combined with Ron Paul's fringe candidacy and the election of President Obama has created the perfect storm for Jericho's bombastic style.

"Like any good demagogue, Jericho sought to make Blunt an emblem for a party that lost its way, and made demands upon the congressman to show fealty to Jericho's very narrow brand of conservatism. By doing this, Jericho became the leader of the "conservative underground," said Springfield Republican Matt Lyons.

Despite his harsh attacks on Republicans, most area candidates and officials agree to appear on Jericho's show. All five of the announced Republicans running to replace Blunt in the U.S. House appeared at Jericho's cattle call two weeks ago.

State Sen. Gary Nodler said he couldn't make a judgment on Jericho's interaction with Steele because he didn't hear the broadcast. He said he views Jericho as just another media outlet to convey his views through and added that a diverse Republican Party in Southwest Missouri shouldn't surprise anyone.

"The Republican Party in Southwest Missouri is too big to be monolithic. Tensions are bound to exist," said Nodler. The Joplin lawmaker wouldn't render an opinion on Jericho's influence, but said it's expected that his act is designed to generate controversy.

"It's not just about information, it's about entertainment," Nodler said, referring to Jericho's show. "They're free to disagree with Congressman Blunt and Governor Blunt. They're free to disagree with me."

Greene County prosecutor and 7th District candidate Darrell Moore, who also hadn't heard the broadcast, said it helps no one to use harsh damning rhetoric to get a point across.

"Yes, Jericho has some influence, but I have no use for the trash talk. That's high school behavior. What good does it do anybody to trash Roy at this point? It just tears us all down," Moore said.

"I would say, sometimes, my friend Jericho, goes over the line," Moore added.

But for some in the conservative movement, that's exactly where they want him to be.

"I know Vincent has offered for Blunt to come on his show, but, I guess he doesn't want to face real questions on his record," said conservative Clint Hallowell. "And I do respect and know that Jericho will only talk about things he's researched and has the facts on so I have to deduce that Roy Blunt doesn't want to face him to clear things up and explain his position on the matter and could very well be because Jericho's right," added Hallowell, who said he's divorced himself from the Republican Party.

"I am absolutely conservative and agree 100% with Vincent," added Jericho fan Peggy Meads. "I do think he may have been a bit tough on Steele, but it is so needed at this point. This country is slipping away from everything that once made it great. The GOP has become a party of wimps and needs to make a conservative stand and bring back common sense," she added.

Privately, many local Republicans are grumbling at what they see as a tactical mistake the Republican National Committee made by allowing Steele to go on Jericho's program in the first place.

But there seems to be wider frustration that Jericho and his listeners can't unite behind the GOP's common rival: President Obama and a Democratic Congress.

"I'm loyal to Congressman Blunt, I think he's been a good Congressman and will be a good Senator. I will never betray him. I'm not saying he's never made a mistake, but he's my friend. Maybe that's what's tormenting him," Busiek said. "I'm not interested in someone who stirs fears and tears people down all the time," she added.

"Their angst for Blunt runs so deep that it's hard to see who they display more antipathy toward: Blunt, or Obama?," said Lyons, who is supporting Blunt for U.S. Senate. "Again, this is something that should unify the two parts: both are against the stimulus, government health care, Cash for Clunkers, cap and trade, etc. Yet because the conservative/libertarian faction holds such antipathy for the local establishment GOP, it doesn't," Lyons said.

"Everyone in public life has made mistakes. As Jericho has pointed out, Blunt is no different. Yet atonement can be made for those mistakes. My advice to all involved is, look at the big picture," he said.

"Patriot Primary": Long Wins Crowd, Moore Most Improved

Answers to the 12 questions The Notebook had about the 7th District Congressional candidates "Patriot Day" primary:

Q1: How many jokes Billy Long will deliver -- and if he's got any new ones.
A: Counting Billy Long jokes in a speech is like counting stars in a clear summer night sky: After awhile, you're doing to lose track. Long pretty much delivered the same stump speech he gave at his announcement. "I'm not from the government, but I'm here to help," will surely show up in Long's television ads next year. This time, the hulking Long opened with: "Can you all see me behind this mic stand?" And when KSFG staff instructed him to move the microphone to the right to avoid interference with the speaker, Long quickly delivered, "I knew you wouldn't want to move it to the left." It took just 20 seconds for Long to win the crowd over.

Q2. What gets bashed more -- the stimulus OR government healthcare.
A: I thought it'd be closer, but since healthcare is dominating the news right now -- it received the majority of the criticism.

Q3. The kind of reception "the base" gives Darrell Moore.
A: Moore's first line was meant to establish his cred: "My name is Darrell Moore and I'm a conservative and not in a bad mood about it." It received mild applause, but it was a good attempt at injecting some levity into his prosecutorial tone. Moore's speech was much improved from his announcement. His theme was a return to fiscal stewardship, which sold well. The meat Moore threw at the conservative crowd was more pink than red, which suits his style. But his call for a federal spending freeze seemed to resonate. If Long won the day, Moore gets most improved.

Q4. Since Jericho is for Wisdom, how much of the crowd will be pro-Wisdom.

A: Despite showing up at his announcement (and no other candidate's) Vincent David Jericho wrote in The Notebook's comment section that he's endorsed no one in the primary. Still, because he was overseas Jeff Wisdom got the luxury of speaking first via phone. And he got steady applause throughout his speech. The KSGF crowd is not the TARGET BBQ GOP crowd. They're less buttoned-down and more populist; less candidate-focused and more issue-focused; less establishment and more blue-collar middle class; less likely to write a check and more likely to bring a homemade sign. Wisdom got a better reception there than he'd get at a local party-sponsored event.

Q5. If any of them publicly praise Roy Blunt with the knowledge of Jericho's feud with the Congressman.
A: Nobody mentioned Blunt, not even Sen. Chuck Purgason, who's running against him. But Jericho did once at the beginning, saying the Congressman won't return his calls.

Q6. Who wins the sticker/sign ground war.
A: There wasn't really a war. Signs weren't permitted; except for Wisdom, since he couldn't appear in person. In an unscientific parking lot survey, I saw one bumper sticker for Billy Long and one for Jack Goodman. Long had several people handing out business cards with his issue list and phone number; Goodman also had staff in attendance but Nodler did not.

Q7. Who gets more applause Goodman or Long.
A: Long by a longshot. Of all the Republicans, Goodman spoke last. So in his defense, the crowd was probably getting a bit tired. But the Mount Vernon Senator didn't get one round of applause during his speech. Only independent Dean Moore spoke after Goodman, and he won more applause. Goodman paid his dues, but this wasn't his crowd. It's probably too early to surmise if that's going to be a significant problem for him.

Q8. Who gets more applause Goodman or Nodler.
A: Nodler. Nodler, who spoke third to last, kept it short and focused on his upbringing and background. He didn't seem to want to bore the crowd going over the same checklists, so he thanked the veterans and predicted the defeat of Democrats in 2010. Both are always safe bets for applause at conservative events.

Q9. Which candidate delivers the most red meat for the right.
A: This one again goes to Billy Long. He bashed Obamacare, skewered earmarks and out-of-control spending and lambasted career politicians. He also was the only candidate to mention his pro-life and N.R.A. credentials. Oh, and he's for tax cuts too. Wisdom hit a lot of the right notes as well, advocating for the federal government to have no role in education and warning of a creep towards socialism. Interestingly, Goodman also used the socialism charge; Darrell Moore did not.

Q10. If any of the 7th District candidates clap for anything Purgason says.
A: Yes. Sen. Purgason kept his speech focused on issues, and didn't attack Blunt. So on broad issues of a agreement among the GOP, he got applause.

Q11. Dean Moore's relevancy.
A: Sad to say, but it's likely little. A little-known independent sold well with this crowd, but doesn't likely have the traction or finances to take on the two-party structure. Speaking in a shirt and tie on a hot summer day, Moore said he doesn't trust the two-party system. A lot of people sympathize with the sentiment, but in the end they stick with the options on the menu.

Q12. Which candidate has grown/sharpened his message the most since entering the race.
A: Darrell Moore. Still a bit too long, but his speech was tighter. His message was clearer than opening day, when he shoveled in too many historical references. He also infused some humor, personality and personal anecdotes. It all helps to humanize the speech.

CATANESE'S OVERALL TAKE:
Long won the day based on pure speechifying. It'll be hard for any of the candidate's to top Billy in this department. But throughout his humorous and off-the-cuff repertoire, Long has a tendency to make some statements that could come back to haunt him. He mocked the plight of the uninsured ("Get out the crying towel") and claimed that 26 million people under 35 probably don't want health insurance anyway. Claiming that President Obama's healthcare plan might have taken his mother's life back in March of 2008 is also quite a strong charge. It's all done in the loving-aw-shucks Long way, but in a competitive race where a sliver of moderate Republicans could matter, those statements may rub some the wrong way.

On the other hand, Long is obviously attracting the attention of his opponents. Goodman's indirect but clear jab at Long's joke-making and his lack of experience is the first evidence he views Long as a threat. Goodman also identified himself as a "citizen-legislator" who ran his own business. The goal is to push back at Long's broader assertion that the rest of the field is just a bunch of pols. That'll be a tough argument for Goodman to sell. My guess is that his stronger argument is that he's a politician who's stood up to power (i.e. The Village Law). With cynicism in the air, Goodman probably needs to lay out more reasons why he won't just be a GOP establishment rubber stamp. Darrell Moore also had his own take on Long's "I'm not from the government theme". In fact, in touting his work as prosecutor he said, "No, I'm not from the government and here to help, I'm saying I have made your government work for you . . ." One year before the primary and Long has set the debate: I'm not the pol, they are. You're angry, and you know me, so it seems like a good time to try something new. His rivals see that this has selling potential, and they're gauging how to best respond. The more Long freelances, the more potential ammunition his opponents will have to pick apart later -- to try to show he's inexperienced, lacks substance or doesn't have the proper gravitas. But attacking Billy will be difficult task, because humor is a powerful defense.

The 7th District "Patriot" Primary: Long, Nodler & Goodman

LONG: MOM WOULDN'T BE SAVED UNDER 'OBAMACARE'

Auctioneer Billy Long repeated his charge Saturday that the government would deem his ailing mother not worth saving if President Obama's healthcare plan was in place today.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 13

Biggest Applause Line: Taking the pledge to limit his service to 12 years, or 6-terms

Red Meat Ranking (1 to 10 scale): 9

Standout Soundbite: "Twenty-six and a half million are under 35. They're never going to die. They're going to live to be 112. They don't want health insurance."

***

All of the announced candidates for the 7th Congressional District spoke at KSGF's Patriot Day event in Springfield Saturday.

NODLER: DEMS HAVE OVERREACHED

State Sen. Gary Nodler predicted that Republicans would win the 2010 midterm elections because the Democratic Party has overreached and "frightened Americans" with an attempt to expand federal power and reduce personal freedoms.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 7

Biggest Applause Line: Asking veterans to stand to honor their courage and service

Red Meat Ranking: 3

Standout Soundbite: "That lesson is missing in far too many inner cities, where people are lead to believe that only the government can provide opportunity or a handout can provide security. That isn't true."

GOODMAN SWIPES LONG

State Sen. Jack Goodman took a veiled but intentional swipe at rival Billy Long, saying that the 7th District needs a Congressman willing to do more than "crack jokes" on the sidelines and "say no."

To drive his subtle point that Long doesn't have the experience necessary, Goodman also said he wouldn't need a staffer's help to interpret what certain bills mean.

To which Long (@auctnr1) wittily responded via TWITTER: "What did he mean by that? I'll ask a staffer."

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*
The swipe was not caught on the FlipCam due to storage capacity.

Applause Breaks During Speech: 0

Biggest Applause Line: Didn't receive applause during speech

Red Meat Ranking: 4

Standout Soundbite: "For most of the years I've been a citizen legislator, I too have been working to make a payroll every month at a small business that I own.