Pawlenty backs Blunt

From AP:

Republican Senate candidate Roy Blunt is getting some help from a potential presidential candidate.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty came to Missouri on Friday night (2-26) as the keynote speaker for the Republicans' annual Lincoln Days conference.

While in the St. Louis area, Pawlenty hosted a fundraiser for Blunt and publicly praised the southwest Missouri congressman's Senate campaign.

Pawlenty is considering a presidential run in 2012 and is making stops at similar Republican events across the country.

In Missouri, he criticized the Democratic-led Congress and President Barack Obama for running up the nation's debt with "massive" and "ridiculous" spending.

He also accused Obama of weakening the U.S. by taking an appeasement approach on international policy.

Rasmussen Poll: Blunt 49%, Carnahan 43%

The latest Rasmussen poll has Rep. Roy Blunt leading secretary of state Robin Carnahan in the race for the U.S. Senate.

The poll of likely voters has Blunt at 49%, Carnahan at 43%, with 3% supporting someone else and 5% undecided.  Rasmussen reports anger over healthcare reform legislation is hurting the Democrat Carnahan.

Fresh off his state of the state address, Gov. Jay Nixon has a 61% approval rating.

Carnahan: Legislation Takes "Important Steps"

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Robin Carnahan continued to carefully craft her public position on federal healthcare legislation Thursday, saying the Senate bill "takes important steps" without wholeheartedly backing the entirety of the complex measure.

The Senate approved the measure early Thursday, 60-39, free of Republican votes. It sets the stage for a complicated conference committee negotiation, where House and Senate Democrats will attempt to push for final passage before President Obama's State of the Union address on February 2nd.

"While more needs to be done to get tough on insurance companies by creating more competition to drive down costs for all consumers, this legislation takes important steps to stop insurance companies from denying people insurance due to preexisting conditions, and to insure nearly 800,000 more Missourians," Carnahan said in a statement.

While Democrats from the president on down billed the vote as "historic," Republicans, like Congressman Roy Blunt framed it as a catastrophic mistake clouded by "political payoffs."

"It takes huge cuts out of Medicare for seniors, to spend on new programs that don't help seniors. Families will pay higher premiums for a new system that will move inevitably into rationing and ever deeper control by a huge new government bureaucracy. State budgets in Missouri and across the nation will be slammed with unfunded mandates from Washington, threatening funding for schools, public safety, and other vital purposes," Blunt said in a statement.

Blunt also made clear that Carnahan would have been among the Democrats voting "yes" if she held Sen. Kit Bond's seat.

The Missouri Republican Party used the season to land their charge: "On Christmas Eve, Robin Carnahan delivered a lump of coal to Missouri's families, businesses, and seniors when she declared what we already knew to be true: that she would have voted for the Democrats' reckless and expensive government-takeover of health care," said MoGOP executive director Lloyd Smith.

While conventional wisdom might permit the assumption that Carnahan would have been a "yes" vote, the Secretary of State has steered clear of taking a unequivocal position on the ever-changing legislation.

In early November, Carnahan said she was both "excited and concerned" about the legislation. What's unclear is where Carnahan stands on some of the most contentious differences between the House and Senate bills -- like the necessity of a public option, the level of abortion restrictions and who to tax to pay for the massive expansion of coverage.

A recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed Missouri voters opposed to Congressional healthcare legislation by a 57% to 40% margin. Carnahan lead Blunt overwhelmingly among those who favor the plan and held a surprising edge among those "somewhat opposed."

In her statement, for the first time, Carnahan also directly took a shot at Blunt's alternative plan, which focused on reigning in frivolous lawsuits and associated health plans through larger "risk pools."

"The alternative offered by Congressman Blunt, not only would increase premiums and push more Missourians onto the rolls of the uninsured but it also would let insurance companies continue their worst abuses like denying Missourians the care they need for the sake of profits. That is completely unacceptable," Carnahan said.

Meanwhile, one of the candidates aiming to replace Blunt mirrored some of the same language of the 7th District Congressman to lambaste passage.

"States like Missouri will see their budgets wrecked with more unfunded mandates from Washington, taking away from other essential services like education," said Mt. Vernon State Sen. Jack Goodman.

Goodman also pledged to work to overturn the legislation if elected, something former House Speaker Newt Gingrich already predicted would become a major campaign theme for Republicans in 2010.

The early-morning Christmas Eve vote allowed lawmakers to get home for the holiday. CNN showed video of Sen. Claire McCaskill, who voted yes, bolting through the parking lot as soon as the job was done.

Washington's WJLA reported that Sen. Bond, who voted no, also raced to the airport for a flight back to Kansas City.

"There's a blizzard due at 6 p.m. We're due to land at 3:30 p.m. Close counts in horseshoes, but I'm not sure about landing airplanes," Bond said.

Cooking Up A Prediction For Blunt?

The Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook predicts that Republicans will pick up between four and six U.S. Senate seats in 2010 -- strongly suggesting without explicitly saying that Roy Blunt will prevail over likely Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan.

@RoyBlunt touted the news in a TWEET Tuesday afternoon.

"I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.," wrote Cook in his Dec. 18th update.

THE CAVEAT: "Obviously much can and much will happen between now and November 2nd, 2010 and our estimates will undoubtedly change dozens of times over the next year," Cook concludes.

His colleague Jennifer Duffy is more conservative in her Republican upswing, estimating

the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans.

The difference between Duffy & Cook's analysis? Cook places greater weight on national dynamics while Duffy focuses on local developments within states.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll gave Carnahan a statistically insignificant 2 percentage point edge, 46%-44%, over the Ozarks Congressman.

Missouri Dems Say Blunt Flyer Violates Ethics Laws

VIDEO BELOW: HOSMER'S PRESSER

ISSUE PIECE OR CAMPAIGN FLYER?

The Missouri Democratic Party is filing ethics complaints against Congressman Roy Blunt for sending a flyer to his constituents that defends himself against attacks for opposing cap and trade energy legislation.

Party chair Craig Hosmer said Friday that the four page mailer, (pictured above), paid for by Blunt's Congressional office, is a misuse of taxpayer dollars. Hosmer said the flyer violated House Franking Commission rules, which approves mailings sent by members of Congress.

"It's clear that this mailer is a direct response to a political ad that Congressman Blunt has repeatedly talked about in his Senate campaign," said Hosmer at a news conference. "Quite frankly, this mailer raises serious questions about what Congressman Blunt is doing in his Washington, D.C. Congressional office." **WATCH Q&A with Hosmer BELOW**

The mailer is clearly designed to combat a League of Conservation Voters television ad that attacked Blunt for campaign contributions from oil and other energy interests.

"Don't Be Fooled -- I Don't Work For The Interests Of Bil Oil Or The Energy Industry," blares Blunt's flyer.

Blunt deputy chief of staff Burson Snyder pointed out that the Franking Commission already approved Blunt's flyer and provided The Notebook with a Dec. 10th letter signed by Jack Dail of the commission's staff.

"When you follow the rules, you don't have to worry about these kinds of false political charges. Nancy Pelosi's employees on the Franking Commission approved this mailer, and it is unfortunate that the Democrats do not want Missourians to know the truth about this job-killing cap and tax bill. Unfortunately we cannot communicate with Southwest Missourians for free, but Congressman Blunt believes it's important to make sure the people he works for know where he stands on the issues, like his opposition to the national energy tax.," Snyder said in a statement.

Hosmer called on Blunt to reimburse taxpayers for the expense of the mailer.

"This is a campaign expense and it should be paid for by his campaign and not Missouri voters," Hosmer said.

A few hours after the Democratic Party's complaint, the Missouri Republican Party announced a similar complaint against Democrat Robin Carnahan.

GOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said Carnahan "abused taxpayer dollars by airing self-promotional radio advertisements" in Wyoming and Mississippi.

But earlier this year, Carnahan's office noted that the money used for those public service ads come from fines paid by those convicted of securities fraud and that no tax dollars are used.

More on this story on Ky3 News @ 5, 6 & 10.

Blunt, Skelton Both Oppose Financial Rewrite

TARP WARS

Congressman Roy Blunt and Congressman Ike Skelton both voted against a sweeping rewrite of complex financial regulations.

Despite 27 Democrats peeling away, the legislation passed 223 to 202.

The legislation would force more control over the country's financial institutions. Blunt, who voted for the financial bailout last fall, said this plan would bankrupt new generations and kill jobs.

"End TARP and send all unspent funds to pay down the massive national debt," Blunt said in a statement. "Instead, national Democrats voted today to make the bailout permanent and spend even more taxpayer money."

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee pounced on Blunt, a GOP candidate for U.S. Senate in 2010, calling him "a hypocrite": "Roy Blunt voted to bailout the banks, then opposes steps to keep them accountable,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Communications Director Eric Schultz. "Blunt pretends to be a friend of the taxpayer, but today’s proposal includes common-sense, pragmatic steps to protect consumers."

***

SKELTON VOTES 'NO' AGAIN

Congressman Ike Skelton said: "While the House bill is well-intentioned and I support much of it, the measure falls short in my goal to target Wall Street without disrupting Main Street banks and bank customers."

MORE SKELTON: "As important as these new regulations are to our country, Congress must be careful in writing them. We must focus tough regulations like a laser beam on Wall Street and other bad actors while not wrapping our home town banks into costly and complex sets of new rules. Community banks and credit unions have been playing by the rules for years. They are conservative with their money and did not cause last year’s economic mess. They and their customers ought not pay the price for Wall Street’s misdeeds any more than they, like all Americans, have already been asked to do."

GOPers Blast Dem Spending Bill, Skelton Peels Away

Congressman Ike Skelton joined a unanimous Republican caucus in opposing a $447 billion dollar spending bill passed by the House Thursday.

The A.P. notes: The 1,088-page, $1.1 trillion measure would provide $447 billion in operating budgets for 10 Cabinet departments, awarding increases averaging almost 10 percent.

"The Democrats on Capitol Hill today spent more good money on a bad fix for what is broken," Congressman Roy Blunt said. "Today they rolled six appropriations bills into one massive spending bill worth nearly $447 billion dollars and representing the largest single-year increase in spending in our nation’s history," he added.

Skelton joined the 202 "no" votes.
***
ALSO: GOPer Jeff Parnell tells The Notebook he's still weighing a bid against Skelton and is "getting closer" to a decision. "I have yet to see anyone as passionate about the issues and our country's predicament as myself and am disturbed that none of the current candidates sensed the import of Skelton's remarks," Parnell said, referring to Skelton's recent comments about President Obama's Afghanistan decision.

Parnell said he is "disappointed and troubled" that Skelton is allowing himself "to be used as a tool by the Obama administration when the lives of American troops are at stake."

"After the long delay in responding to General McChrystal's requests, the last thing we need is to further "lawyer" the subject to death by asking inane questions such as "What do we believe must be accomplished in the next 18 months?," Parnell said.

Rove Notes Donation to Blunt

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Republican strategist Karl Rove celebrates a "stellar" class of GOP U.S. Senate candidates for the 2010 cycle and notes that of the two Republicans he's contributed financially to, one is Roy Blunt.

"Republicans have also recruited good candidates for their open seats. New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte is competitive, as are Ohio's Rob Portman and Missouri's Roy Blunt," writes Rove.

"Republicans in Florida have to get through a primary fight, but either Gov. Charlie Crist or former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio will likely hold the seat. (I've donated to Messrs. Blunt and Rubio.) ," he continues.

Read Rove's entire piece HERE.

Talent To Keynote Greene County Lincoln Days

Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent will keynote Greene County's annual Lincoln Day event in March, organizers tell The Notebook.

This year's GOP get-together is slated for Saturday, March 20th at the University Plaza Hotel & Convention Center.

Former Gov. Matt Blunt will serve on a "Future of the Party" morning panel with 7th District Executive Director Mavis Busiek, GOP State Chairman David Cole and GOP executive director Lloyd Smith.

Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman and U.S. Senate candidate Roy Blunt are also scheduled to to attend the luncheon, when Talent presents the keynote address, between 12:30-1 p.m.

Leigh Anne Garren and Lucas Case are serving as co-chairs for the event. Tickets can be purchased by calling GOP headquarters at 417-823-9130.

Missouri Pols React Cautiously to Obama Surge Plan

REPUBLICANS EMBRACE SURGE, CRITICIZE TIMETABLE

MCCASKILL: "THOUGHTFUL STRATEGY"

SKELTON HAS QUESTIONS

*GET MORE KEY QUOTES HERE*

Missouri's leading Republicans praised President Obama's call to infuse Afghanistan with 30,000 additional troops but contended a timetable for withdrawal could undermine the goal of the mission.

The president said the troops would deploy in early 2010, but also allow the United States "to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011."

"It will be clear to the Afghan government – and, more importantly, to the Afghan people – that they will ultimately be responsible for their own country," Obama said.

That's where Republicans are breaking with the president.

"I am encouraged that the President has renewed his commitment to the strategy he outlined in March, a strategy that will allow our troops to return on success and put Afghanistan on the road to stability," said Sen. Kit Bond, who was briefed before the president's speech.

In a separate statement obtained by the Associated Press, Bond said more troops would've been better, "but this is what the president has recommended and that's what we'll support."

But the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee quickly added, "We need a success strategy, not an exit strategy." According to Foreign Policy's blog, Bond made his concerns clear to the president in their meeting.

Bond's concern, that emphasizing the exit strategy will send the wrong message to U.S. allies and enemies, was echoed by Congressman Roy Blunt.

"The president tonight tried to walk a line between the political views of those who are ready to give up on the war in Afghanistan, and the real-world needs of both our troops on the ground and the Afghan people, all of whom need to have confidence that the U.S. is there to get the job done," Blunt said.

"While I’m pleased that he will take steps toward adopting General McChrystal’s troop level recommendations, setting a published timetable while announcing a troop increase will satisfy neither of those groups," Blunt added.

Blunt's likely U.S. Senate candidate Robin Carnahan's spokesman did not immediately respond to an e-mail seeking reaction.

GOP Congressional candidate Ed Martin, who is waging a bid against Democrat Russ Carnahan, said Obama's "indecisiveness will be viewed by history as endangering our troops and for not furthering national security interests."

But the president is also facing opposition from the left, many who are skeptical that a troop surge will do much to solve the military and political problems on the ground. But that pressure is not coming from Missouri's prominent Democrats.

Several Senators, including Sen. Claire McCaskill, expressed skepticism about a proposed war surtax to pay for the military effort.

"I can't tell right now if it's a serious proposal, or just one that's been thrown out," McCaskill said to The Hill. "It's too early to judge whether it's serious."

In a carefully worded statement, McCaskill called Obama's approach "thoughtful" without fully endorsing it. She also said she would be looking closely at benchmarks for the new strategy.

"We cannot continue to allow the Taliban or Al Qaeda to gain ground in Afghanistan and therefore the Commander in Chief should be commended for establishing a thoughtful strategy that acknowledges that the war in Afghanistan is not a war of choice," McCaskill said.

"I will be looking closely at the benchmarks being set for this new strategy, including ensuring our allies and the Afghans are stepping up to do their part and that we are expending our nation’s resources responsibly," she added.

The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, who repeatedly encouraged the president to embrace a strategy with new troops, said he still had questions.

"I have a number of questions to which I hope we can get answers--for example, the role of Pakistan, how specifically we will measure progress over time, what additional resources we will need on the civilian side of the effort, how we will manage strain on our forces, and how we expect the government of Afghanistan to be reformed," said Rep. Ike Skelton.

Carnahan Launches Mobile Campaign App

GOP SAYS THE MESSAGE IS BLANK

Robin Carnahan's campaign for U.S. Senate launched a new mobile web application meant for supporters on-the-go, who depend on Iphones, Blackberries and other handheld devices to stay connected.

"With more people on the go, they want to be able to easily connect with Robin’s campaign, and this will be another way to do that," said spokesman Linden Zakula.

The Iphone app is HERE.

The Blackberry app is HERE.

***
The app does include a listing of Carnahan's general thoughts on issues from healthcare to national security, but does not go into substantial detail on specifics.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee said Monday's unveiling of the application marked the 300th day Carnahan has ducked positions on major issues.

"Robin Carnahan’s mobile web outreach is pretty much useless when she has zero message to communicate on the important issues facing America," said NRSC spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand. "We can all use technology, but a web site without a substantive message or positions on the issues facing America is certainly not worth bragging about," Marchand added.

ON THE APP, ON THE ISSUES --
Carnahan's positions on her website are in many cases, broad principles, but they may offer some hints of what's to come:

On The Economy: "Stop the giveaways and bailouts . . ." It's language that could signal she's willing to take on Congressman Blunt for his role in cobbling together votes for the $700 billion dollar financial bailout last fall.

On Fiscal Responsibility: That she has a separate section on this topic is telling in itself. Under this sub-head, Carnahan again previews an attack or counter-attack against Blunt: "More than a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of AIG, it is still business-as-usual on Wall Street." Furthermore, there's this phrase: ". . . putting an end to wasteful pork barrel spending projects and earmarks for corporate special interests."

On Healthcare: Here her language is deliberately vague -- just as the U.S. Senate begins weeks of contentious debate over a historic overhaul. Almost everything on Carnahan's issue page for healthcare could be endorsed by Blunt.

On National Security: Overall, her stands tend to lean hawkish and mirror President Obama's. On Afghanistan and Pakistan, she says "the stakes are higher than ever." An intuitive guess could lead the reader to believe Carnahan would support an increase in troops to Afghanistan -- as long as there's accountability attached. She also calls for "an end to our commitment in Iraq," honorably and responsibly.
***
MORE TECH TALK:
You can also receive updates on Carnahan's campaign through TEXT messages by texting JOIN to 76246 (ROBIN).

Both Carnahan and Roy Blunt's campaigns also sent out fundraising e-mails Monday to try to tap potential donors before the busy holiday shopping season ramps up.

Blunt Raises Cash, Talks to Chamber

Congressman Roy Blunt will address the Springfield Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations Committee early Monday morning.

The meeting, which is open to the media, takes place at 7:30 a.m., and will likely focus on healthcare.

MONDAY NIGHT: BLUNT RAISES DOUGH
In Highland Springs

• GOPer says total receipts should amount to a haul between $175,000 and $200,000
• 31 top tier Republican donors listed on the invitation; 100 estimated in attendance
• Both Billy Long and Sen. Gary Nodler among those in attendance. Sen. Jack Goodman not spotted.

Fourth quarter fundraising is expected to be the toughest of the year because of the holidays.

PPP Poll: Matt Blunt Could Hurt Dad's U.S. Senate Chances

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM BLUNT SPOKESMAN RESPONDS --

"HIGHLY MISLEADING"

Matt Blunt is Missouri's least popular Governor during the past 25 years, and voters could hold that against his father in the 2010 election cycle, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

A survey of the state's Governors found that just 29 percent of respondents chose Matt Blunt as their favorite state leader.

Blunt's father, Congressman Roy Blunt will likely face another candidate with a family legacy, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, next year in nationally tracked race for U.S. Senate.

But Carnahan appears to have a leg up on genetic coattails.

Former Gov. Mel Carnahan, Robin's father, was chosen by 32 percent of respondents as their favorite. Only former Gov. John Ashcroft is more popular, according to the survey.

"Matt Blunt clearly was not a popular Governor, and that could hurt his father next year. Carnahan's father on the other hand seems to be generally well remembered. It will be interesting to see how much those things matter next year in a race that's likely to be closely contested," writes PPP in a blog entry.

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM: Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer called the data "highly misleading."

"The poll shows Governor Blunt is Missouri's third most popular governor and conservative icon John Ashcroft is the most popular governor. The fact that a Democrat poll finds John Ashcroft is the most popular governor ought to be concerning to Democrats," said Chrismer.

A poll released earlier this week showed Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Blunt in the race for U.S. Senate.

Meanwhile, 42 percent approve of the job Gov. Jay Nixon is doing, according to a separate poll taken.

"In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers. Nixon is one of only four Governors PPP has polled on all year with a disapproval rating under 30% (the others being Jack Markell of Delaware, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and Pat Quinn of Illinois," writes PPP in a blog entry.

"The 33% of voters with no opinion of him is unusually high though, an indication that he may need to do more to step up his visibility across the state," PPP writes.

Blunt Wants Investigation of AIG's TARP Money

Congressman Roy Blunt is urging the Financial Services Committee to schedule a hearing to examine a report that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was unprepared to deal with bailout money AIG received last year.

Blunt said the committee must investigate before legislation regarding further AIG-style bailouts are considered.

From BLOOMBERG: The inspector general’s report “paints a devastating picture of government regulators ill-prepared to deal with the failure of complex financial institutions like AIG, and who failed to fight for what was in the best interest of the taxpayers," Blunt and Bachus said in the letter today.

"Without a hearing to fully explore the decisions that led to the bailout of AIG and its counterparties, we are concerned that efforts to extend and expand TARP, as well as legislation currently being considered by the Financial Services Committee to codify a permanent bailout authority, will only lead to many of the same mistakes that have cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars," reads Blunt's letter.

"A Lead As Thin As November Ice"

"In some ways, George Bush's lead is as thin as November ice."

--Dan Rather on Election Night 2004

Take the relentless ads by the League of Conservation Voters targeting Roy Blunt and the cadence of criticism building against Robin Carnahan for her silence on specifics . . . and toss it all out.

After ten months of early posturing and positioning, Public Policy Polling is here to report that nothing much has changed in Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race.

In January, Public Policy Polling gave Carnahan a immeasurable 1 point advantage. And in its latest survey, Carnahan maintains the same statistically insignificant lead. One point. 45-44, Robin.

At first glance, this has to be positive news for the Blunt camp. In this case, the tie goes to the battered. Blunt has had more to overcome in the first ten months and has sustained more fire from his foes.

"It is significant that the race is tied given the fact that Robin Carnahan's liberal allies have already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in false and negative TV and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt," wrote Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer in an memo sent to media outlets Wednesday.

"Since April, six attack ads have aired including one paid for by environmental extremists that was airing while this poll was taken. These false attacks have been made without paid response by the Blunt campaign, the GOP or any group. These type of results give us reason for great optimism but this represents only a snapshot in time," Chrismer added.

Conveniently enough, there are plenty of other mixed signals in this poll -- enough to give every side something favorable to point to.

Carnahan holds a 10-point lead over Blunt on her favorability rating. Forty percent see her positively, compared to just 30 percent for Blunt. Yet Blunt wins independents handily, 44%-32%. That's partly, perhaps, because 58 percent polled say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that’s made this race highly competitive."

The most glaring portion of the poll is the GOP primary race, where the unknown, underfunded, often ignored Sen. Chuck Purgason is polling 16 percent against Blunt.

Sure, Blunt holds a 53%-16% advantage, as expected. But why, after Blunt cleared the hurdles of two credible Republican threats (Sarah Steelman, Tom Schweich), is a third -- Purgason -- polling in double-digits.

It's likely his votes are coming from the populist right, the section of the party that is fed up with bailouts, cash for clunkers and deficit spending. But 16 percent is a fair chunk of the GOP primary vote for a guy that's mostly been ignored by his opponent and the media.

Even more striking, is that Purgason polls pretty well against Carnahan, being that it's 11 months from the general. PPP has Purgason trailing the Secretary of State by just seven points (42%-35%) in November.

And you could make the argument that while much less known, Purgason carries much less baggage than Blunt, who can expect a barrage of negative ads to attack everything from his lobbyist ties to his bailout votes to what he had for breakfast while George Bush was president.

Chrismer said "we believe we are in an even better position than this poll suggests. But even this Democrat firm is showing this is a very close race."

But another political consultant tells The Notebook, "This is a really bad environment for Democrats right now, but Robin is still doing well in light of that. That's a good indication of the strength of Robin as a candidate, the weakness of Blunt, or both, depending on one's viewpoint.

A very close race -- But we didn't need a poll to tell us that.

PPP surveyed 763 Missouri voters from November 13th to 15th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%.

Blunt, Bond Meet With Ozarks WWII Vets

Sen. Kit Bond and Congressman Roy Blunt met in Washington, D.C. Tuesday with dozens of World War II veterans taking part in the inaugural "Ozarks Honor Flight."

The Ozarks Honor Flight is part of a non-profit organization that flies World War II veterans – free of charge – to the Nation’s capital to visit the World War II Memorial.

Above: Former Springfield City Councilman Ralph Manley poses with Blunt.

Below: Ky3 Anchor Steve Grant, who is traveling with the Honor Flight, is seen with Sen. Kit Bond.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 5 REPORT HERE

More Coverage & Information about the Flight program HERE

"It's a Very Likely Answer by my Likely Opponent"

Congressman Roy Blunt said he doesn't think Democrat Robin Carnahan's campaign strategy of avoiding specific positions on issues will prove successful in their 2010 U.S. Senate contest.

"In one of the most high profile Senate races in the country, I doubt if at the end of the day, some vague, 'I'm excited about it,' or 'I'm open to it,' will be good enough," Blunt said, in the final excerpt of an interview with Ky3 News earlier this week.

BUT he conceded, "If people on election day don't think that matters, they may vote for somebody who has no positions . . ."
***
On Carnahan's recent comments on healthcare: "It's a very likely answer by my likely opponent. What does that mean?"

Blunt then went on to tout the GOP alternative plan, which creates high risk insurance pools, costs much less, but only covers a fraction more of the uninsured. Under the Republican plan, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that 3 million more people would get insurance coverage.

"It wouldn't significantly increase the amount covered," Blunt acknowledged.

It Would let people shop out of state for insurance and make it easier for small businesses to tap into coverage plans.

The L.A. Times has a comprehensive analysis of what Republicans offered HERE.

Blunt Comfortable With Nuclear Plant in the Ozarks

Congressman Roy Blunt said he would be comfortable with the presence of a nuclear power plant in the Ozarks, but continued to stress the importance of coal-generated power as an energy source.

"I'd be comfortable with a plan. I'd be comfortable in an expansion of the plan at Fulton," Blunt said, when asked about nuclear.

Blunt made the comments in a wide-ranging interview with KY3 News earlier this week.

*EXCHANGE EXCERPT ABOVE*

ALSO: CAP & TRADE

Sen. Lindsey Graham is working with Sen. John Kerry on an attempted compromise energy plan in the U.S. Senate. Asked about that effort, Blunt said, "I'd have to see it first. But I'm for more American energy of all kinds."

On Coal: "We should still be using it as a resource . . ."

In The Field

WHAT the CHUCK?

In the field conducting a new Missouri U.S. Senate race poll, Public Policy Polling leaks in a Tweet Saturday that Sen. Chuck Purgason may be polling in double-digits against Congressman Roy Blunt in the 2010 GOP primary.

From the Twitterboard: "Interesting finding on our Mo. poll so far- Blunt struggling to crack 50 against little known primary opponent," wrote Tom Jensen.

This would be the first public poll on the 2010 GOP U.S. Senate primary in Missouri.

Purgason, a State Senator from Caulfield, is significantly trailing Blunt in the early markers of fundraising, organization and endorsements. He's also complained that Blunt has repeatedly ignored him. But if the poll shows him in double-digits, it could help advance his argument that he's a credible candidate with a message that deserves coverage.

No word on when Public Policy Polling plans to release this poll.

In January, a PPP poll showed a statistical dead heat between Democrat Robin Carnahan and Blunt. (Carnahan 45%, Blunt 44% 3.3% MOE)

Blunt Explains PAC Money

Congressman Roy Blunt noted that political action committees (PACS) were meant as part of a campaign finance reform after the Watergate scandal, while seemingly dismissing a USA Today report on lobbyist contributions he's received.

"Lobbyist money is when a lobbyist would write a personal check. That's their money and they write a check. I have no idea how much money that might be," said Blunt in an interview.

In an Oct. 4th story, USA Today listed Blunt as the top federal recipient of lobbyist money in 2009.

Blunt seemed to dismiss the story, saying it focused on PAC money -- not lobbyist money.

A Blunt spokesperson said the Congressman misspoke. "You are correct. He did misspeak. He was addressing a different point of attack," said spokesman Rich Chrismer.

*WATCH FULL EXCHANGE ABOVE*

ON PACS: "Remember the PACS were a reform after Watergate . . . so individuals could put their money together and speak as loudly as campaigns used to speak."

UPDATED 7:37 PM: MO DEMOCRATIC PARTY RESPONSE

"LENIENT POST"

"What concerns me is that you seem to bury the fact that he was entirely wrong about the focus of the article," Missouri Democratic Party spokesman Ryan Hobart wrote The Notebook in an e-mail late Thursday. "In fact, it doesn't even come up until you quote Rich Chrismer in the second to last paragraph. It is also noticeable that you were lenient when Congressman Blunt avoided addressing the large amounts of lobbyist money being given to his campaign. I know you are more than willing to hold Secretary Carnahan's feet to the fire by saying she is "tap dancing" around the issues, but the same level of urgency did not come through in today's post about Blunt," Hobart continued.