Rasmussen Poll: Blunt 49%, Carnahan 43%

The latest Rasmussen poll has Rep. Roy Blunt leading secretary of state Robin Carnahan in the race for the U.S. Senate.

The poll of likely voters has Blunt at 49%, Carnahan at 43%, with 3% supporting someone else and 5% undecided.  Rasmussen reports anger over healthcare reform legislation is hurting the Democrat Carnahan.

Fresh off his state of the state address, Gov. Jay Nixon has a 61% approval rating.

Carnahan: Legislation Takes "Important Steps"

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Robin Carnahan continued to carefully craft her public position on federal healthcare legislation Thursday, saying the Senate bill "takes important steps" without wholeheartedly backing the entirety of the complex measure.

The Senate approved the measure early Thursday, 60-39, free of Republican votes. It sets the stage for a complicated conference committee negotiation, where House and Senate Democrats will attempt to push for final passage before President Obama's State of the Union address on February 2nd.

"While more needs to be done to get tough on insurance companies by creating more competition to drive down costs for all consumers, this legislation takes important steps to stop insurance companies from denying people insurance due to preexisting conditions, and to insure nearly 800,000 more Missourians," Carnahan said in a statement.

While Democrats from the president on down billed the vote as "historic," Republicans, like Congressman Roy Blunt framed it as a catastrophic mistake clouded by "political payoffs."

"It takes huge cuts out of Medicare for seniors, to spend on new programs that don't help seniors. Families will pay higher premiums for a new system that will move inevitably into rationing and ever deeper control by a huge new government bureaucracy. State budgets in Missouri and across the nation will be slammed with unfunded mandates from Washington, threatening funding for schools, public safety, and other vital purposes," Blunt said in a statement.

Blunt also made clear that Carnahan would have been among the Democrats voting "yes" if she held Sen. Kit Bond's seat.

The Missouri Republican Party used the season to land their charge: "On Christmas Eve, Robin Carnahan delivered a lump of coal to Missouri's families, businesses, and seniors when she declared what we already knew to be true: that she would have voted for the Democrats' reckless and expensive government-takeover of health care," said MoGOP executive director Lloyd Smith.

While conventional wisdom might permit the assumption that Carnahan would have been a "yes" vote, the Secretary of State has steered clear of taking a unequivocal position on the ever-changing legislation.

In early November, Carnahan said she was both "excited and concerned" about the legislation. What's unclear is where Carnahan stands on some of the most contentious differences between the House and Senate bills -- like the necessity of a public option, the level of abortion restrictions and who to tax to pay for the massive expansion of coverage.

A recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed Missouri voters opposed to Congressional healthcare legislation by a 57% to 40% margin. Carnahan lead Blunt overwhelmingly among those who favor the plan and held a surprising edge among those "somewhat opposed."

In her statement, for the first time, Carnahan also directly took a shot at Blunt's alternative plan, which focused on reigning in frivolous lawsuits and associated health plans through larger "risk pools."

"The alternative offered by Congressman Blunt, not only would increase premiums and push more Missourians onto the rolls of the uninsured but it also would let insurance companies continue their worst abuses like denying Missourians the care they need for the sake of profits. That is completely unacceptable," Carnahan said.

Meanwhile, one of the candidates aiming to replace Blunt mirrored some of the same language of the 7th District Congressman to lambaste passage.

"States like Missouri will see their budgets wrecked with more unfunded mandates from Washington, taking away from other essential services like education," said Mt. Vernon State Sen. Jack Goodman.

Goodman also pledged to work to overturn the legislation if elected, something former House Speaker Newt Gingrich already predicted would become a major campaign theme for Republicans in 2010.

The early-morning Christmas Eve vote allowed lawmakers to get home for the holiday. CNN showed video of Sen. Claire McCaskill, who voted yes, bolting through the parking lot as soon as the job was done.

Washington's WJLA reported that Sen. Bond, who voted no, also raced to the airport for a flight back to Kansas City.

"There's a blizzard due at 6 p.m. We're due to land at 3:30 p.m. Close counts in horseshoes, but I'm not sure about landing airplanes," Bond said.

Cooking Up A Prediction For Blunt?

The Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook predicts that Republicans will pick up between four and six U.S. Senate seats in 2010 -- strongly suggesting without explicitly saying that Roy Blunt will prevail over likely Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan.

@RoyBlunt touted the news in a TWEET Tuesday afternoon.

"I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.," wrote Cook in his Dec. 18th update.

THE CAVEAT: "Obviously much can and much will happen between now and November 2nd, 2010 and our estimates will undoubtedly change dozens of times over the next year," Cook concludes.

His colleague Jennifer Duffy is more conservative in her Republican upswing, estimating

the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans.

The difference between Duffy & Cook's analysis? Cook places greater weight on national dynamics while Duffy focuses on local developments within states.

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll gave Carnahan a statistically insignificant 2 percentage point edge, 46%-44%, over the Ozarks Congressman.

Missouri Dems Say Blunt Flyer Violates Ethics Laws

VIDEO BELOW: HOSMER'S PRESSER

ISSUE PIECE OR CAMPAIGN FLYER?

The Missouri Democratic Party is filing ethics complaints against Congressman Roy Blunt for sending a flyer to his constituents that defends himself against attacks for opposing cap and trade energy legislation.

Party chair Craig Hosmer said Friday that the four page mailer, (pictured above), paid for by Blunt's Congressional office, is a misuse of taxpayer dollars. Hosmer said the flyer violated House Franking Commission rules, which approves mailings sent by members of Congress.

"It's clear that this mailer is a direct response to a political ad that Congressman Blunt has repeatedly talked about in his Senate campaign," said Hosmer at a news conference. "Quite frankly, this mailer raises serious questions about what Congressman Blunt is doing in his Washington, D.C. Congressional office." **WATCH Q&A with Hosmer BELOW**

The mailer is clearly designed to combat a League of Conservation Voters television ad that attacked Blunt for campaign contributions from oil and other energy interests.

"Don't Be Fooled -- I Don't Work For The Interests Of Bil Oil Or The Energy Industry," blares Blunt's flyer.

Blunt deputy chief of staff Burson Snyder pointed out that the Franking Commission already approved Blunt's flyer and provided The Notebook with a Dec. 10th letter signed by Jack Dail of the commission's staff.

"When you follow the rules, you don't have to worry about these kinds of false political charges. Nancy Pelosi's employees on the Franking Commission approved this mailer, and it is unfortunate that the Democrats do not want Missourians to know the truth about this job-killing cap and tax bill. Unfortunately we cannot communicate with Southwest Missourians for free, but Congressman Blunt believes it's important to make sure the people he works for know where he stands on the issues, like his opposition to the national energy tax.," Snyder said in a statement.

Hosmer called on Blunt to reimburse taxpayers for the expense of the mailer.

"This is a campaign expense and it should be paid for by his campaign and not Missouri voters," Hosmer said.

A few hours after the Democratic Party's complaint, the Missouri Republican Party announced a similar complaint against Democrat Robin Carnahan.

GOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said Carnahan "abused taxpayer dollars by airing self-promotional radio advertisements" in Wyoming and Mississippi.

But earlier this year, Carnahan's office noted that the money used for those public service ads come from fines paid by those convicted of securities fraud and that no tax dollars are used.

More on this story on Ky3 News @ 5, 6 & 10.

Carnahan Supports Obama's Afghan Strategy

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Robin Carnahan threw her support behind President Obama's Afghanistan strategy Wednesday morning.

Carnahan said she supported the president's decision to boost troop levels, but did not address the July 2011 timetable set that has come under criticism from Republicans.

"The failure to focus on Afghanistan for the past several years has created a difficult and dangerous situation. I support the decision by the President and his national security team to increase our troop levels in Afghanistan and I am encouraged that the strategy is receiving bipartisan support," said Carnahan in a statement released Wednesday morning.

"We must protect our nation from future attacks by stabilizing Afghanistan and the region so that it is not a safe haven for terrorists and is eventually responsible for its own security. It's vital that there be clear benchmarks, strict oversight and that our troops have the tools they need to succeed and ultimately return home safely. I recognize the additional burden this places on our military and their families, and all Americans are deeply in the debt of those who serve our nation so bravely and with so much selfless dedication," Carnahan added.

Her likely 2010 U.S. Senate opponent Roy Blunt said he supported a troop increase but added that Obama's timetable could undermine the goal of the mission.

Carnahan Launches Mobile Campaign App

GOP SAYS THE MESSAGE IS BLANK

Robin Carnahan's campaign for U.S. Senate launched a new mobile web application meant for supporters on-the-go, who depend on Iphones, Blackberries and other handheld devices to stay connected.

"With more people on the go, they want to be able to easily connect with Robin’s campaign, and this will be another way to do that," said spokesman Linden Zakula.

The Iphone app is HERE.

The Blackberry app is HERE.

***
The app does include a listing of Carnahan's general thoughts on issues from healthcare to national security, but does not go into substantial detail on specifics.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee said Monday's unveiling of the application marked the 300th day Carnahan has ducked positions on major issues.

"Robin Carnahan’s mobile web outreach is pretty much useless when she has zero message to communicate on the important issues facing America," said NRSC spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand. "We can all use technology, but a web site without a substantive message or positions on the issues facing America is certainly not worth bragging about," Marchand added.

ON THE APP, ON THE ISSUES --
Carnahan's positions on her website are in many cases, broad principles, but they may offer some hints of what's to come:

On The Economy: "Stop the giveaways and bailouts . . ." It's language that could signal she's willing to take on Congressman Blunt for his role in cobbling together votes for the $700 billion dollar financial bailout last fall.

On Fiscal Responsibility: That she has a separate section on this topic is telling in itself. Under this sub-head, Carnahan again previews an attack or counter-attack against Blunt: "More than a year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the bailout of AIG, it is still business-as-usual on Wall Street." Furthermore, there's this phrase: ". . . putting an end to wasteful pork barrel spending projects and earmarks for corporate special interests."

On Healthcare: Here her language is deliberately vague -- just as the U.S. Senate begins weeks of contentious debate over a historic overhaul. Almost everything on Carnahan's issue page for healthcare could be endorsed by Blunt.

On National Security: Overall, her stands tend to lean hawkish and mirror President Obama's. On Afghanistan and Pakistan, she says "the stakes are higher than ever." An intuitive guess could lead the reader to believe Carnahan would support an increase in troops to Afghanistan -- as long as there's accountability attached. She also calls for "an end to our commitment in Iraq," honorably and responsibly.
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MORE TECH TALK:
You can also receive updates on Carnahan's campaign through TEXT messages by texting JOIN to 76246 (ROBIN).

Both Carnahan and Roy Blunt's campaigns also sent out fundraising e-mails Monday to try to tap potential donors before the busy holiday shopping season ramps up.

PPP Poll: Matt Blunt Could Hurt Dad's U.S. Senate Chances

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM BLUNT SPOKESMAN RESPONDS --

"HIGHLY MISLEADING"

Matt Blunt is Missouri's least popular Governor during the past 25 years, and voters could hold that against his father in the 2010 election cycle, according to a new survey by Public Policy Polling.

A survey of the state's Governors found that just 29 percent of respondents chose Matt Blunt as their favorite state leader.

Blunt's father, Congressman Roy Blunt will likely face another candidate with a family legacy, Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, next year in nationally tracked race for U.S. Senate.

But Carnahan appears to have a leg up on genetic coattails.

Former Gov. Mel Carnahan, Robin's father, was chosen by 32 percent of respondents as their favorite. Only former Gov. John Ashcroft is more popular, according to the survey.

"Matt Blunt clearly was not a popular Governor, and that could hurt his father next year. Carnahan's father on the other hand seems to be generally well remembered. It will be interesting to see how much those things matter next year in a race that's likely to be closely contested," writes PPP in a blog entry.

UPDATED @ 9:29 PM: Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer called the data "highly misleading."

"The poll shows Governor Blunt is Missouri's third most popular governor and conservative icon John Ashcroft is the most popular governor. The fact that a Democrat poll finds John Ashcroft is the most popular governor ought to be concerning to Democrats," said Chrismer.

A poll released earlier this week showed Carnahan with a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Blunt in the race for U.S. Senate.

Meanwhile, 42 percent approve of the job Gov. Jay Nixon is doing, according to a separate poll taken.

"In a time when the popularity of many chief executives across the country is tanking, those are very solid numbers. Nixon is one of only four Governors PPP has polled on all year with a disapproval rating under 30% (the others being Jack Markell of Delaware, Mike Beebe of Arkansas, and Pat Quinn of Illinois," writes PPP in a blog entry.

"The 33% of voters with no opinion of him is unusually high though, an indication that he may need to do more to step up his visibility across the state," PPP writes.

"A Lead As Thin As November Ice"

"In some ways, George Bush's lead is as thin as November ice."

--Dan Rather on Election Night 2004

Take the relentless ads by the League of Conservation Voters targeting Roy Blunt and the cadence of criticism building against Robin Carnahan for her silence on specifics . . . and toss it all out.

After ten months of early posturing and positioning, Public Policy Polling is here to report that nothing much has changed in Missouri's 2010 U.S. Senate race.

In January, Public Policy Polling gave Carnahan a immeasurable 1 point advantage. And in its latest survey, Carnahan maintains the same statistically insignificant lead. One point. 45-44, Robin.

At first glance, this has to be positive news for the Blunt camp. In this case, the tie goes to the battered. Blunt has had more to overcome in the first ten months and has sustained more fire from his foes.

"It is significant that the race is tied given the fact that Robin Carnahan's liberal allies have already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in false and negative TV and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt," wrote Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer in an memo sent to media outlets Wednesday.

"Since April, six attack ads have aired including one paid for by environmental extremists that was airing while this poll was taken. These false attacks have been made without paid response by the Blunt campaign, the GOP or any group. These type of results give us reason for great optimism but this represents only a snapshot in time," Chrismer added.

Conveniently enough, there are plenty of other mixed signals in this poll -- enough to give every side something favorable to point to.

Carnahan holds a 10-point lead over Blunt on her favorability rating. Forty percent see her positively, compared to just 30 percent for Blunt. Yet Blunt wins independents handily, 44%-32%. That's partly, perhaps, because 58 percent polled say they have an unfavorable opinion of the Democratic-controlled Congress.

"If Robin Carnahan had faced off against Roy Blunt in any election year between 1996 and 2008 she would likely have won given her superior popularity," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But 2010 has the potential to be an extremely good year for Republicans, and that’s made this race highly competitive."

The most glaring portion of the poll is the GOP primary race, where the unknown, underfunded, often ignored Sen. Chuck Purgason is polling 16 percent against Blunt.

Sure, Blunt holds a 53%-16% advantage, as expected. But why, after Blunt cleared the hurdles of two credible Republican threats (Sarah Steelman, Tom Schweich), is a third -- Purgason -- polling in double-digits.

It's likely his votes are coming from the populist right, the section of the party that is fed up with bailouts, cash for clunkers and deficit spending. But 16 percent is a fair chunk of the GOP primary vote for a guy that's mostly been ignored by his opponent and the media.

Even more striking, is that Purgason polls pretty well against Carnahan, being that it's 11 months from the general. PPP has Purgason trailing the Secretary of State by just seven points (42%-35%) in November.

And you could make the argument that while much less known, Purgason carries much less baggage than Blunt, who can expect a barrage of negative ads to attack everything from his lobbyist ties to his bailout votes to what he had for breakfast while George Bush was president.

Chrismer said "we believe we are in an even better position than this poll suggests. But even this Democrat firm is showing this is a very close race."

But another political consultant tells The Notebook, "This is a really bad environment for Democrats right now, but Robin is still doing well in light of that. That's a good indication of the strength of Robin as a candidate, the weakness of Blunt, or both, depending on one's viewpoint.

A very close race -- But we didn't need a poll to tell us that.

PPP surveyed 763 Missouri voters from November 13th to 15th. The margin of error is +/-3.6%.

"It's a Very Likely Answer by my Likely Opponent"

Congressman Roy Blunt said he doesn't think Democrat Robin Carnahan's campaign strategy of avoiding specific positions on issues will prove successful in their 2010 U.S. Senate contest.

"In one of the most high profile Senate races in the country, I doubt if at the end of the day, some vague, 'I'm excited about it,' or 'I'm open to it,' will be good enough," Blunt said, in the final excerpt of an interview with Ky3 News earlier this week.

BUT he conceded, "If people on election day don't think that matters, they may vote for somebody who has no positions . . ."
***
On Carnahan's recent comments on healthcare: "It's a very likely answer by my likely opponent. What does that mean?"

Blunt then went on to tout the GOP alternative plan, which creates high risk insurance pools, costs much less, but only covers a fraction more of the uninsured. Under the Republican plan, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that 3 million more people would get insurance coverage.

"It wouldn't significantly increase the amount covered," Blunt acknowledged.

It Would let people shop out of state for insurance and make it easier for small businesses to tap into coverage plans.

The L.A. Times has a comprehensive analysis of what Republicans offered HERE.

Carnahan Declines Position on Healthcare Bill

TAP DANCING

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Robin Carnahan declined stating her position on the House healthcare bill, telling the Associated Press she is both excited and concerned about the legislation.

According to the wire service, Carnahan says she has concerns about whether the bill does enough to make health care affordable. But she says she is excited about the debate and calls the House vote an important first step.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Reacts: "Even for Robin Carnahan, this tap dance does not pass the straight face test. She’s running to represent Missourians in the U.S. Senate, yet Carnahan is unable or unwilling to articulate her position on one of the most important issues facing the families, seniors, and small businesses in her state," said NRSC spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand in a statement.

VIDEO is ALWAYS BETTER: And Capitol Calling has got it.

"I think that's not goint to be what we ultimately pass," Carnahan said on the healthcare legislation.

ALSO: Caranahan never specifically answers Jason Rosenbaum's question on the anti-abortion Stupak amendment. Only says she doesn't think a healthcare bill should turn into a debate "over abortion."

Missouri Pols Play Unemployment Blame Game

Missouri Republicans hopped all over the new unemployment rate Friday, which hit double-digits for the first time in 26 years.

GOPers said the 10.2 percent jobless number proved that the Obama administration's massive economic stimulus package failed to accomplish its intended goals, eight months after its passage.

"While President Obama told us that the failed stimulus would keep unemployment below 8 percent, more than 10 percent of Americans are unemployed," Congressman Roy Blunt said in a statement.

The country lost 190,000 jobs in October, continuing a downward trend that began last spring.

The Obama administration noted that employment in temporary jobs increased by 33,700. Christina Romer, chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisors, said that number represented a sign of hope amid "painful evidence of continued labor market weakness."

"The motor vehicle industry also posted employment gains. These are hopeful signs that the unprecedented policy actions are working to stabilize the economy and put us on a path toward recovery," said Romer. Read her full statement HERE.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to tie Missouri's Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate to the climb in unemployment.

"Robin Carnahan was among those Democrats who said that she would have voted in favor of the failed stimulus debacle," said NRSC press secretary Amber Wilkerson Marchand.

In an interview with The Notebook back in March, Carnahan did not specifically commit support to the $787 billion dollar stimulus package, but said "we've got to do something."

On the specific legislation, Carnahan said, "I didn't read the 18-hundred page bill and wasn't asked to vote on that. There's no reason for me to kind of talk about something I didn't have any input on. (You can watch the full clips from that interview HERE.)

Meanwhile, Missouri Democrats tried to reach back to the Bush administration to pin blame for the country's continuing economic problems. Missouri Democratic Party executive director Brian Zuzenak said that Blunt's 93 percent voting record with President Bush makes him responsible for one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression.

In the 7th Congressional District, Sen. Jack Goodman said the 10.2% unemployment rate "is another sure sign that the Pelosi-Obama stimulus has failed."

Goodman, who voted against a large state spending bill that included stimulus money, has tried to carve himself out as the most fiscally conservative Republican in the race to replace Roy Blunt.

"Stimulus bills, bailouts, and government takeovers have done little more than increase the national deficit by trillions of dollars that future generations of Americans will struggle to pay off," Goodman said.

One Year Away

COUNTDOWN TO 2010

One year from today Missourians will chose its 45th U.S. Senator, voters in the Ozarks will select a new 7th District Congressman and a handful of incumbents will be tested to see whether they can survive the typical midterm storm.

Both Democratic candidate Robin Carnahan and Republican Roy Blunt sent out e-mails to their U.S. Senate campaign supporters Monday marking the one year countdown.

CARNAHAN WANTS $45 DONATIONS: "Tonight, all across the state, Robin's supporters will be hosting House Parties to recruit a strong volunteer force and build the grassroots network we will need to win. But today, I'm asking you to join with so many others who are helping our campaign effort with a contribution of $45," writes Carnahan finance director Emily Ebert in an e-mail.

Ebert cites a polling advantage, but warns that Blunt has a financial advantage and that Team Carnahan needs to stay competitive: "We must stay competitive with Blunt on financial resources too. And two weeks ago the latest fundraising numbers were reported showing Congressman Blunt with an advantage of over $400,000 in cash reserves over our own campaign."

BLUNT WANTS $20.10: "Which way will "Bellwether Missouri" turn on November 2, 2010, only one short year from today?," writes Roy Blunt in an e-mail. "In only ten months, the Washington liberal way has sent the jobless rate soaring to nearly 10 percent with new national debt and budget deficits never imagined, at any time in our history. Now, the liberal one-party monopoly in Washington wants vast new taxes, huge cuts in Medicare for seniors, and unprecedented direct control over your health care. Enough is MORE than enough!"

"With the election only a year away, here are four things you can do right now to help. Recruit ten people in your network of family and friends to join the campaign. Third, consider making a generous contribution to our campaign by participating in our $20.10 challenge."

***

ROLL CALL LABELS SKELTON A "MCCAIN DEMOCRAT"

One of 49 districts that went for John McCain and a Democratic House member -- Skelton is one of the Democrats the GOP is targeting in an attempt to "expand the playing field"

HUMAN EVENTS JOHN GIZZI SAYS SKELTON is one of 25 seats the GOP can win next year.

Blunt Taps Wagner in Hopes of Boost in St. Louis

In a move that shows the critical importance of St. Louis to his campaign, Congressman Roy Blunt tapped former U.S. ambassador and Republican heavyweight Ann Wagner to chair his bid for U.S. Senate next year.

"Ann Wagner is the most effective and successful statewide Republican campaigner in decades." said Blunt in a statement. "She is the best possible person for this critical leadership role," he added.

"She will be very involved in the decisions we are making, the overall direction of the campaign and will have a lot of input on policy, but won't be bogged down in the day to day management," Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer told The Notebook.

Blunt said he chose Wagner "because no one has greater knowledge and capability to produce a tremendous Republican vote in the St. Louis area."

With the Carnahan family entrenched in the St. Louis region, Blunt will need a big GOP turnout in the surrounding counties if he's to defeat his likely Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan.

The goal will likely be to contain Carnahan's margin in St. Louis County. In 2008, candidate Barack Obama defeated John McCain there by 20 points. But in St. Charles County, McCain beat Obama by about 10 points.

In 2006, candidate Claire McCaskill beat then Sen. Jim Talent by 12 points in St. Louis County. In St. Charles County, Talent beat McCaskill by about 9 points.

In addition to her four-year term as ambassador to Luxembourg, Wagner was co-chair of the Republican National Committee for two terms and was chair of the Missouri Republican Party for more than six years.

"Robin Carnahan is Missouri's Nancy Pelosi. She would serve as a weak rubber stamp for whatever the national liberals want to do and lacks the credentials to serve in the U.S. Senate," said Wagner in the Blunt campaign statement.

The Missouri Democratic Party portrayed Wagner as Washington insider who's been part of the "money merry-go-round."

But the addition of Wagner is the latest sign that Blunt has consolidated the support of most of the major Republican players in the state around his campaign.

Carnahan to Israel

Secretary of State Robin Carnahan will travel to Israel next week at the invitation of The Jewish Foundation.

Carnahan will travel with Missouri community and business leaders in her role as Secretary of State. A spokesman said the trip was not related to her U.S. Senate campaign.

Carnahan campaign spokesman Linden Zakula said Carnahan is expected to meet with national and local Israeli government officials and community leaders "to examine how the Middle East conflict has impact local communities and better understand the security challenges they face."

The trip includes stops in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Sderot and the surrounding Gaza region.

"Israel has been our greatest ally in pursuing democracy and stability in the Middle East," said Carnahan in a statement. "The United States and Israel share a commitment to halting nuclear proliferation, containing anti-democratic regimes and above all achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East."

A Quarter Of Blunt's 3rd Quarter Haul Came From PACS

PLUS: BURN BABY BURN

Blunt & Carnahan Both Post Burn Rates Over 40%

Twenty-seven percent of Congressman Roy Blunt's third quarter campaign contributions came from political action committees (PACS).

The Hotline broke down contributions to 2010 U.S. Senate candidates and found that Blunt received a total of $358,700 from PACS.

His likely Democratic opponent, Robin Carnahan, received $127,815 from PACS, amounting to about 12 percent of her total money raised between July and September.

"When you look at how many lobbyists and corporations are funding his campaign, it becomes obvious that he has been in Washington too long," said Missouri Democratic Party executive director Brian Zuzenak, referring to Blunt's fundraising haul.

But money from PACS is a two-party game. Only three 2010 U.S. Senate candidates took in more PAC cash than Blunt over the last three months: All are incumbents, two are Democrats (Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid & Sen. Blanche Lincoln).

Still, Democrats believe Blunt's slight fundraising advantage over Carnahan is directly due to his PAC money advantage.

Overall last quarter, Blunt outraised Carnahan by $231,404. Counting just PAC money, Blunt beat Carnahan by just about the same margin, $230,858.

But as The Hotline notes, both Blunt and Carnahan area also some of the top Senate candidate spenders across the country.

Blunt spent $789,985, which was the fifth highest burn rate during the 3rd quarter. Carnahan spent $601,481, which put her not far behind.

That means Blunt has spent 44% of what he's raised since the beginning of the cycle. Carnahan has burned through 42% of her total campaign funds already.

But neither camp is likely concerned. As a marquee battleground match-up, there will be lots of more cash for both camps to burn through.

Carnahan Denies Ties to ACORN

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Robin Carnahan told students at the University of Missouri she has no ties to ACORN, the community activist group that's increasingly come under fire for questionable practices.

The Missouri Republican Party distributed VIDEO of Carnahan's response to a question about ACORN on YouTube HERE. (The MoGOP did not shoot this video; rather it was shot by Arthur Nunn)

CORRECTION: "I'm not sure how you got that the "Missouri Republican Party Posted VIDEO" because I posted that video not them," wrote Nunn to The Notebook.

In fact, a review of Nunn's Twitter and social network posts shows he's more inclined to support liberal positions. The Notebook regrets the error.
"I don't have any ties to ACORN. Not sure why they did that, I think, just to have something to talk about," Carnahan said in a response to a student's question.

The MoGOP recently put up a website dedicated to outlining Carnahan's connections with ACORN. The site shows conversations between Carnahan's staff and ACORN involving research questions and planning meetings. It does not appear to allege anything unlawful, but rather connect Carnahan to ACORN because she hasn't publicly criticized the group for its legal problems.

Specifically, the MoGOP shows ACORN praising Carnahan for her help in defeating photo I.D. legislation in Jefferson City. They also show Carnahan's staff aiding ACORN in its research efforts regarding the same issue.

MoGOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith said Carnahan's claim that she has "no ties" is outlandish. "The documents, obtained by the Missouri Republican Party, tell the real story about what ACORN calls a ‘great team effort,’ detailing meetings in her office, events, research requests, and more. Despite Carnahan’s attempts to re-write history, the evidence is as incriminating as it is clear: Robin Carnahan and ACORN are too close for comfort," said Smith in a statement.

Carnahan acknowledged Missouri has had issues with ACORN. "I've called on law enforcement officials to prosecute anybody who violates the election laws, whether its ACORN or anybody else," Carnahan said.

Blunt Wins 3rd Quarter Fundraising, Maintains Cash Advantage

Congressman Roy Blunt inched out Robin Carnahan in third quarter campaign fundraising to give himself about a $430,000 cash on hand advantage over the Democratic Secretary of State about a year before the election.

During the last three months, Blunt reported raising about $1.3 M to Carnahan's $1.07 M, about a $230,000 difference. That leaves Blunt with $2.27 M of cash on hand to spend, compared to Carnahan's $1.84 M.

Carnahan's campaign noted that the $1,071,572 raised between July and September added up to their best quarter yet. Blunt's campaign release seemed to taunt Carnahan with this headline: "Left-Wing Money Galore Still Leaves Liberal Robin Carnahan in Last Place."

"Carnahan's allies including ACORN and the League of Conservative Voters have gone negative, spending nearly $500,000 since April on false television and radio ads attacking Roy Blunt for voting against the energy tax and the proposed government-takeover of health care," reads Blunt's third quarter fundraising release. "Where in the world is Robin Carnahan?," said Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer "Our candidate is traveling the state with a message of common sense Missouri solutions, visiting with voters, telling people where he stands, answering questions and standing up for Missouri values."

Carnahan Calls Baucus Bill "Important Step"

. . .WHILE BLUNT BLASTS IT

McCaskill: "Not Perfect, But Encouraged"

Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Robin Carnahan called the Senate Finance Committee's passage of healthcare legislation Tuesday "an important step" in the debate, but stopped short of fully endorsing it.

"There is still a lot of work to be done before it is final, but I’m encouraged that there is still some bipartisanship in trying to figure out how to reform the system," Carnahan said in a statement provided to The Notebook.

After the key committee passed the $829 billion dollar bill with just one Republican vote, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) noted that Carnahan was willing to go "further and possibly support a government option." Citing an interview Carnahan did with The Notebook in July, the NRSC attempted to tie Carnahan to the public option -- which has been rejected by other moderate Democrats.

Sen. Max Baucus' bill, which cleared the committee hurdle Tuesday, does not include a public option.

When The Notebook asked Carnahan's campaign if this was legislation she could sign onto, the candidate provided an answer that allows wiggle room.

"As the bill continues through the process, I hope to see a final product that will get tough on insurance companies; ensure stability, security and choice for Missouri families and businesses, and reduce costs," Carnahan concluded in the statement.

Congressman Roy Blunt said the Baucus bill is "guaranteed to raise taxes on virtually everyone in America."

"Under this plan, if you have insurance, that’s a tax hike. Need insurance? That’s a tax hike. Employ people but can’t afford to cover them? That’s a tax hike. Take a prescription drug? Tax hike," Blunt said.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, who will be a key vote when the bill hits the floor, said she was encouraged by the legislation but fell short of backing it.

"I was really encouraged that the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office says this bill in the short term will not add a dime to our deficit and in the long term will actually reduce the deficit," McCaskill said, in a statement to The Notebook. "The bill is not perfect, but it’s a good place to start. I’m sure we will see some additional changes during the floor debate process," she added.

Now that the bill has cleared committee, Senate leadership will try to combine it's goals with the Senate Health Committee' reform package.

Looming over the entire debate is the fate of the public option, which moderates seem wary of, but liberals continue to campaign for aggressively.

Carnahan Ethics Complaint Dismissed

CLEARED =

Win, Then Give In?

It's much easier to acknowledge your opponent's point after you've beaten them, than during the heat of the fight.

So it goes in life, sports and even politics.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Robin Carnahan has been cleared of an ethics complaint involving her husband's finances, according to the documents provided to The Notebook.

Back in June, Missouri Republican Party executive director Lloyd Smith charged that Carnahan failed to disclose a business owned by her husband, Juan Carlos Antolinez. The party filed state and federal complaints.

But in a letter dated September 14th, Senate Ethics Committee Chief Counsel John Sassaman writes that Smith's allegations set forth in the complaint "lack substantial merit and no further action is appropriate."

Smith said that Carnahan had not properly registered the Antolinez's business, Antolinez International Trade. But the Carnahan campaign maintained that the business was never formed, only considered.

Ethics complaints are commonly filed and often, just as swiftly dismissed. The usual goal is to make a broader point about a political opponent, not win an official complaint case.

Still, the Carnahan campaign filed new campaign disclosure forms just to cover its bases as the 2010 campaign season moves into full gear.

"To address any concerns the Missouri Ethics Commission might have, we have amended the relevant reports, which should close the matter," said Carnahan spokesman Tony Wyche.

And, predictably, the Missouri Republican Party declared victory.

"Robin Carnahan was forced to come clean and report Juan Carlos Antolinez’s company, which three months ago she claimed didn’t even exist," said Smith in a statement sent to The Notebook. "Her new filing raises more questions about her response to our initial complaint, the nature of the business, and why it was absent from her disclosure forms for so many years. You would expect better from the person whose job it is to maintain business records in the State of Missouri," Smith concluded.

Tie Goes To The Runner

You've got to hand it to Roy Blunt.

After a summer of sustained attacks from the left on his record, verbal miscues on President Obama's citizenship and Medicare and nervous Republicans whispering about his potential vulnerabilities, the Ozarks Congressman looks to have weathered the storm with muster.

And if you trust Rasmussen Reports, he looks primely positioned in the 2010 U.S. Senate contest -- now 13 months away.

More importantly, he's shown he can take a punch early and often. And he's well aware the barrage has barely begun.

After Rasmussen showed that Blunt was deadlocked with probable Democrat Robin Carnahan, the Blunt team celebrated like it was a victory.

Blunt's team sent out an fundraising e-mail blast to supporters: "You made it happen! Rasmussen Reports today issued a poll showing the U.S. Senate race between Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan tied 46-46, despite huge amounts spent for false television attack ads by very (very) liberal groups from outside Missouri."

"The end of a crucial fundraising quarter is coming on September 30. We're seeing from new polling and other information that this is a very winnable race," the e-mail went on.

The mere fact that the team is celebrating "a very winnable race," shows how far Blunt has come over the past year. Many Republicans mumbled that Blunt faced rough waters. Some would even mutter under their breath that Blunt was likely to lose.

Sure, the national environment has helped. Growing skepticism of the Democratic supermajority and fears about President Obama's vision for healthcare. But he fought back primary challengers, quietly massaged skeptics behind closed doors and toured the state aggressively. And now, the poll shows that Blunt has higher favorable numbers than Carnahan. "I'm pretty shocked by that," said one Springfield GOPer.

The question now for Carnahan is whether her team is seeing similar internal numbers, and if there's a slight strategy shift going forward. Does Carnahan need to come out earlier and offer clearer positions to boost her mojo? Does she come out more aggressively against Blunt?

Then again, this could all be a flash in the pan.

It would be silly to put too much weight into one poll. And it comes just as Blunt's odd and seemingly tone-deaf comments about playing the ball "where the monkey throws it" continues to get traction. (It remains a top story on KY3.com)

The numbers will shift and surprise again, quicker than the seasons.

Blunt can smile that on the dawn of autumn '09, he's fought himself all the way back . . . to a tie.

And you might suggest that the old baseball adage could easily apply to politics.

Ties usually go, to the runner.