Wisdom announces fundraising totals

From his press release:

The Wisdom for Congress Committee is pleased to release its most recent fund raising and expenditure totals reported to the Federal Election Commission.

As of December 31, 2009, the Wisdom for Congress Campaign has recorded the following:

Contributions: $5,407.45

Expenditures: $4,800.96

Cash-on-Hand: $606.49

Candidate Self-Financing: $3,119.58

The Wisdom for Congress Committee is proud of its balanced and conservative approach to fund raising and expenditures during the current election cycle. According to FEC records, Jeff Wisdom was the only candidate to report self-financing. The campaign has accepted no Political Action Committee contributions.

He plans to file officially as a candidate seeking the Republican nomination for Congress in Missouri’s Seventh District on February 23, 2010, the first day any candidate may legally file.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the eighth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Stable) Stability reigned over the last month, so Long stays a top the heap. He continues to raise money and land high profile backers. The auctioneer is also clearly the most visible candidate in the field, in part due to his prolific Tweeting of his whereabouts. (He's the @clairecmc of the GOP). Branson's Peter Herschend was a nice recent coup for Long, who doesn't want to be the frontrunner. But in 2010 he'll know he is pretty quickly.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) The Joplin State Senator relinquished his Appropriations Chairmanship and recently had what an ally calls "a very successful D.C. swing", including a big event that former Roy Blunt chief of staff and D.C. power-hitter Gregg Hartley put together. Is Nodler making inroads on Long's cash advantage during a tough 4th quarter? It's certainly on his holiday wish list.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) After dropping to his lowest ranking since April last month, things have been relatively quiet in Goodman-land. His hired gun, David Barklage isn't as keen on dishing on his candidate as some of the other advisers in the race. It's no secret that returning calls isn't the strength of the GOP's leading State Senate consultant. But it leaves his status with the campaign somewhat in doubt.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is struggling to raise money, but a mid-November poll shows the power of name identification. The Wilson Research Strategies survey of 301 likely primary voters is mostly meaningless in a scattered race 10 months away. But it also showed Moore tied with Nodler among those who've made up their mind. He also boasted the highest favorable rating ratio. As much as his rivals want the field narrowed, the prosecutor remains plugging along. And why would he not? "I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The tea party-toting populist conservative didn't even earn enough respect to be included in the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC's November poll. The outsider has a base of support, but there's no evidence it's growing.

6. Michael Wardell -- (Stable) Say this: The guy knows how to put together a press release. Always available for comment, Wardell wants to opine on every latest issue: Afghanistan, healthcare, Billy Long. He definitely wields intellectual power. The question now is, what's next?

7. Mike Moon -- (Stable) The other Mike, curiously, did make it into the SWMO Leadership PAC poll. Moon registered 2 percent, in poll with a 5.6 percent margin of error. Not bad, but not enough to rock our rankings.

Most 7th District Candidates Won't Be Attending Palinmania

Most of the Republican candidates running for Congress in the 7th District won't be attending Sarah Palin's events in the Ozarks Wednesday.

But auctioneer Billy Long will attend the speech and a special private V.I.P. meet and greet after her appearance at College of the Ozarks.

Palin will do a book signing at BORDERS from 10 a.m. to noon, then make a speech closed to the media at College of the Ozarks at 7 p.m.

The Notebook sent inquiries to all seven GOP contenders to see who would be attending Palin's Borders book signing or the college speech.

Here's what we found:

Sen. Jack Goodman: Not able to make either event due to previously scheduled obligations. Spokesman Miles Ross said he wasn't sure if Goodman had purchased the book. "He is currently reading a book by Senator Tom Coburn," said Ross.

Billy Long: Going to the speech, but probably not the book signing. The auctioneer said he also plans on attending a special dinner prior to the speech at the Keeter Center and a special V.I.P. meet and greet photo opportunity after her speech. The V.I.P ticket did require a donation to a student activity program, according to College of the Ozarks spokeswoman Elizabeth Andrews.

Sen. Gary Nodler: The Senator is currently out of the state in Washington. Spokesman Charles Poplstein said that trip prohibits him from attending either event.

Michael Wardell: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I would have if the tickets were not snapped up so fast," Wardell e-mailed. Said he plans on purchasing the book.

Mike Moon: Won't be attending the speech or the book signing. "I wish I could but I'm not able to," Moon said. "There weren't tickets available and I'm working during the book signing." He said he has not purchased "Going Rogue" but is interested in reading it.

Jeff Wisdom: Does plan on attending the book signing, but not the speech. "I teach a Wednesday evening class at OTC," said Wisdom. The instructor said he does plan on purchasing more than one copy of Palin's book. "One for myself and the others for Christmas gifts. I will give one copy of the book to my dad," Wisdom said.

Darrell Moore: Plans on attending speech, but not the Borders book signing. Said he has no plans on purchasing Palin's book.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the seventh installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Up 1) For the first time in five months, The Notebook has a new candidate atop the Power Rankings. Auctioneer Billy Long returns to the number one ranking for the first time since the list debuted back on April 30th. Long has been a tour de force at raising cash, building up just under a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over his next closest opponent. He's mixing an outsider, non-politician image with GOP insider money. And he's raising eyebrows from Washington, D.C. to Jefferson City. Long has charm, money, no voting record and the ability to run a populist campaign in a year that people are yearning for an outsider. Long doesn't want to lead the rankings. It's easier, after all, to thrive at the outsider. But being on top also guarantees a bulls eye on his back. Long's biggest strength might also be his biggest vulnerability: to shoot straight from the hip. But if he maintains a large resource advantage, he'll be able to answer any attack that comes his way. With a wink, nod and funny one-liner. The Billy Long way.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Up 1) Nodler returns to the second slot for the first time since August. His 3rd quarter fundraising failed below expectations and he's expected to relinquish his Senate Appropriations chairmanship soon, possibly even before Thanksgiving. But Nodler's pick-up of Roy Blunt's former chief of staff Gregg Hartley gave him some positive news to cap off the month. Hartley's D.C. connections will inevitably help Nodler raise cash in the beltway. But his blessing raises a larger question about where Blunt's allegiance lies in the 7th. "Hartley doesn't do anything without talking to Roy first," said one 7th District politico. Is Hartley's support a sign that Team Blunt is switching their allegiance to Nodler? Is Nodler now seen as the establishment's best chance at stopping Long? Now Nodler needs to show he can keep pace with Long's fundraising to earn that slot in the championship bout.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Down 2) Goodman falls to his lowest ranking since the Power Rankings began back in April. Some of his drop is self-inflicted, but part of it is a vicious whisper campaign that generated bad buzz for a candidate already reeling from a bad fundraising quarter. His burn rate is much too high, much too soon, so campaign consultant David Barklage has/will be taken off the list of expenses. Now Goodman has to figure out how not only to keep pace financially, but to boost his Mojo and convince skeptics he still and will be in the game. It's too early to write off Goodman, who was the leader of the Power Rankings for the last five straight months. He has the strongest grassroots team in place and still exerts loyalty in those outlying counties of Taney, Lawrence and Barry. No one around has a bad word to say about Jack. But the sentences involving him are now ending with, "Is he tough enough? Can he fight back?"

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is now being talked about a more of a spoiler than a viable contender to with the 7th. His name identification is still tops in Greene County. So who does that hurt most? We know Moore's presence is good for Nodler. But who does he siphon more votes away from? Goodman or Long. A smart politico outside the 7th says Moore hurts Long the most, because he takes right out of Billy's base of Greene County. It's too early to begin talking deals, but Moore could play kingmaker in a tight dicey race. And remember, no smart kingmaker cuts a deal without getting something in return.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The Notebook caught up with Wisdom at Tuesday night's anti-pension sales tax gathering downtown. After doing some radio with Vincent David Jericho, Wisdom worked the tables, quietly introducing himself to mostly college students, sipping on lattes. Did election night 2009 prove that the tea party movement isn't as potent and organized in southwest Missouri as suggested? If so, that's a setback for Wisdom's populist campaign.

6. Michael Wardell -- (----) The Nixa business owner and former Marine is articulate and thoughtful. And at his announcement, in one sitting, he unveiled more specifics than any of his rivals. Wardell said he got in the race because he was sick of hearing the red meat and empty rhetoric. He's furiously sending out releases in an attempt to break through the fray. But his promise to visit the district's twenty-some counties over the next few weeks (even though there's only 10) shows he has some outreach and catching up to do.

7. Mike Moon -- (Down 1) We haven't heard much out of Moon since he entered the race. But he does have a cool website that pops up a moon over the Capitol. And on his Facebook page, he's sitting on the trunk of an elephant. But if he held an official announcement kick-off, we could at least get him on Ky3 for 30 seconds.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the sixth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Scroll down to the bottom of the 7th District GOP committee website and you'll find a banner graphic for Sen. Jack Goodman. Notice there's not one for Sen. Gary Nodler. This may be an innocent meaningless symbol, but nonetheless one that adds to the perception of Goodman opponents that Mt. Vernon's man is the chosen one. To the faithful, Goodman is visible, working hard and holding firm. No real spark yet, but that's not yet necessary when your organization is in ship shape and gliding above the others. Look for another solid fundraising quarter for Goodman. (Slow and steady wins the race). And if he's somehow able to edge Gary Nodler in money bags, it would be a tremendous coup.

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Based on his Tweets, Billy Long is everywhere. At the Ducks Unlimited dinner in Joplin. At the Tea Party rally on a Saturday afternoon. At the Polk County GOP meeting in Bolivar. "If there's a Republican event that's attractive, he's there," notes a supporter. "He's trying to get out and meet people. You'd be surprised that some people don't think you're serious if you're not an elected official," that supporter went on. Billy has made clear he'll have the money. (Last month, he netted Sarah Steelman fundraiser/ally Jeff Layman). Now he's trying to prove he's got the mojo. For the past few months, that's meant less dialing for dollars and more pounding the pavement. He has solidified himself as the happy outsider, happy to march to Washington just to personally tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "No." The auctioneer stays slotted second, and as the underdog, wouldn't mind being lower.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) As far as fundraising goes, Nodler should own the third quarter. This will be his first full three-month run at the money pot as an official candidate. This summer and early fall, he hasn't had to balance campaigning with Senatorial duties any longer. And it could be his last full quarter as Senate Appropriations Chair. If Nodler doesn't win the third quarter, look for rival camps to seize on it as a significant letdown. Then again, aides from several camps have already warned The Notebook that it's fundraising predictions are too high. "It's brutal out there," said one of the economic environment. Still, if this stays a 3-man ran race like it's shaping up to be, Nodler will have the money, clout and campaign experience to fight the good fight.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) After a solid speech in August, Moore's lack of visibility has perplexed some insiders. He was the only major candidate not in attendance at the Missouri Republican Assembly dinner featuring Joe Wilson. And while it may be unfair to judge the frequency of ones Twitter posts, Moore did have a month long gap between between Sept. 9th and Oct. 4th with no activity. Hopefully for his sake, he was raising money. (But word is he hates asking for it.) Still, if he's to break into the top tier, he'll need to put up a respectable number this quarter. Even some of Moore's supporters will acknowledge the Greene County prosecutor isn't very comfortable shaking hands and kissing babies. But that's a requirement to win this type of hands-on race. Going through the '09-'10 budget line-by-line is impressive, but pure name identification can only carry a candidate so far.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) Tanned and back from Bahrain, you might have thought Wisdom would have capitalized on his service overseas with some type of creative welcome home event that would've caught media attention. Wisdom is an impressive individual, goes the buzz . . . And he would make a terrific candidate for state representative. Still, Wisdom has no real reason to get out of this race and still attracts a loyal slice of the Fair Tax/anti-big government conservatives that others like Long would love to snatch up. Sure, it's ripe for an outsider to win this year. But Wisdom is like the 15 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. He's got backers, but needs a lot to go right to knock off each of the big dogs. His biggest problem, observes one young Republican? "He is surrounded by people telling him he can win."

6. Mike Moon (----) Stalking horse or real deal? It's a mystery to some. The 50-year-old Moon is the most recent entry into the 7th District fray. We do know he works at St. John's Fitness Center but resides in Lawrence County. Does that mean he siphons votes from Goodman? Too soon to tell. But he could do some creative bumper sticker slogans with that catchy name.

"Patriot Primary": Long Wins Crowd, Moore Most Improved

Answers to the 12 questions The Notebook had about the 7th District Congressional candidates "Patriot Day" primary:

Q1: How many jokes Billy Long will deliver -- and if he's got any new ones.
A: Counting Billy Long jokes in a speech is like counting stars in a clear summer night sky: After awhile, you're doing to lose track. Long pretty much delivered the same stump speech he gave at his announcement. "I'm not from the government, but I'm here to help," will surely show up in Long's television ads next year. This time, the hulking Long opened with: "Can you all see me behind this mic stand?" And when KSFG staff instructed him to move the microphone to the right to avoid interference with the speaker, Long quickly delivered, "I knew you wouldn't want to move it to the left." It took just 20 seconds for Long to win the crowd over.

Q2. What gets bashed more -- the stimulus OR government healthcare.
A: I thought it'd be closer, but since healthcare is dominating the news right now -- it received the majority of the criticism.

Q3. The kind of reception "the base" gives Darrell Moore.
A: Moore's first line was meant to establish his cred: "My name is Darrell Moore and I'm a conservative and not in a bad mood about it." It received mild applause, but it was a good attempt at injecting some levity into his prosecutorial tone. Moore's speech was much improved from his announcement. His theme was a return to fiscal stewardship, which sold well. The meat Moore threw at the conservative crowd was more pink than red, which suits his style. But his call for a federal spending freeze seemed to resonate. If Long won the day, Moore gets most improved.

Q4. Since Jericho is for Wisdom, how much of the crowd will be pro-Wisdom.

A: Despite showing up at his announcement (and no other candidate's) Vincent David Jericho wrote in The Notebook's comment section that he's endorsed no one in the primary. Still, because he was overseas Jeff Wisdom got the luxury of speaking first via phone. And he got steady applause throughout his speech. The KSGF crowd is not the TARGET BBQ GOP crowd. They're less buttoned-down and more populist; less candidate-focused and more issue-focused; less establishment and more blue-collar middle class; less likely to write a check and more likely to bring a homemade sign. Wisdom got a better reception there than he'd get at a local party-sponsored event.

Q5. If any of them publicly praise Roy Blunt with the knowledge of Jericho's feud with the Congressman.
A: Nobody mentioned Blunt, not even Sen. Chuck Purgason, who's running against him. But Jericho did once at the beginning, saying the Congressman won't return his calls.

Q6. Who wins the sticker/sign ground war.
A: There wasn't really a war. Signs weren't permitted; except for Wisdom, since he couldn't appear in person. In an unscientific parking lot survey, I saw one bumper sticker for Billy Long and one for Jack Goodman. Long had several people handing out business cards with his issue list and phone number; Goodman also had staff in attendance but Nodler did not.

Q7. Who gets more applause Goodman or Long.
A: Long by a longshot. Of all the Republicans, Goodman spoke last. So in his defense, the crowd was probably getting a bit tired. But the Mount Vernon Senator didn't get one round of applause during his speech. Only independent Dean Moore spoke after Goodman, and he won more applause. Goodman paid his dues, but this wasn't his crowd. It's probably too early to surmise if that's going to be a significant problem for him.

Q8. Who gets more applause Goodman or Nodler.
A: Nodler. Nodler, who spoke third to last, kept it short and focused on his upbringing and background. He didn't seem to want to bore the crowd going over the same checklists, so he thanked the veterans and predicted the defeat of Democrats in 2010. Both are always safe bets for applause at conservative events.

Q9. Which candidate delivers the most red meat for the right.
A: This one again goes to Billy Long. He bashed Obamacare, skewered earmarks and out-of-control spending and lambasted career politicians. He also was the only candidate to mention his pro-life and N.R.A. credentials. Oh, and he's for tax cuts too. Wisdom hit a lot of the right notes as well, advocating for the federal government to have no role in education and warning of a creep towards socialism. Interestingly, Goodman also used the socialism charge; Darrell Moore did not.

Q10. If any of the 7th District candidates clap for anything Purgason says.
A: Yes. Sen. Purgason kept his speech focused on issues, and didn't attack Blunt. So on broad issues of a agreement among the GOP, he got applause.

Q11. Dean Moore's relevancy.
A: Sad to say, but it's likely little. A little-known independent sold well with this crowd, but doesn't likely have the traction or finances to take on the two-party structure. Speaking in a shirt and tie on a hot summer day, Moore said he doesn't trust the two-party system. A lot of people sympathize with the sentiment, but in the end they stick with the options on the menu.

Q12. Which candidate has grown/sharpened his message the most since entering the race.
A: Darrell Moore. Still a bit too long, but his speech was tighter. His message was clearer than opening day, when he shoveled in too many historical references. He also infused some humor, personality and personal anecdotes. It all helps to humanize the speech.

CATANESE'S OVERALL TAKE:
Long won the day based on pure speechifying. It'll be hard for any of the candidate's to top Billy in this department. But throughout his humorous and off-the-cuff repertoire, Long has a tendency to make some statements that could come back to haunt him. He mocked the plight of the uninsured ("Get out the crying towel") and claimed that 26 million people under 35 probably don't want health insurance anyway. Claiming that President Obama's healthcare plan might have taken his mother's life back in March of 2008 is also quite a strong charge. It's all done in the loving-aw-shucks Long way, but in a competitive race where a sliver of moderate Republicans could matter, those statements may rub some the wrong way.

On the other hand, Long is obviously attracting the attention of his opponents. Goodman's indirect but clear jab at Long's joke-making and his lack of experience is the first evidence he views Long as a threat. Goodman also identified himself as a "citizen-legislator" who ran his own business. The goal is to push back at Long's broader assertion that the rest of the field is just a bunch of pols. That'll be a tough argument for Goodman to sell. My guess is that his stronger argument is that he's a politician who's stood up to power (i.e. The Village Law). With cynicism in the air, Goodman probably needs to lay out more reasons why he won't just be a GOP establishment rubber stamp. Darrell Moore also had his own take on Long's "I'm not from the government theme". In fact, in touting his work as prosecutor he said, "No, I'm not from the government and here to help, I'm saying I have made your government work for you . . ." One year before the primary and Long has set the debate: I'm not the pol, they are. You're angry, and you know me, so it seems like a good time to try something new. His rivals see that this has selling potential, and they're gauging how to best respond. The more Long freelances, the more potential ammunition his opponents will have to pick apart later -- to try to show he's inexperienced, lacks substance or doesn't have the proper gravitas. But attacking Billy will be difficult task, because humor is a powerful defense.

The 7th District "Patriot" Primary

WISDOM: FEDS HAVE NO ROLE IN EDUCATION

Speaking via phone from Bahrain where he's been deployed, community college instructor Jeff Wisdom advocated overhauling the I.R.S. with the so-called "Fair Tax" and said the federal government should have no role in U.S. education.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 8

Biggest Applause Line: Fair Tax pitch

Red Meat Ranking (1 to 10 scale): 8

Standout Soundbite: "I firmly believe issues such as education should be state issues. The federal government has essentially no functional role whatsoever."

***
All of the announced candidates for the 7th Congressional District spoke at KSFG's Patriot Day event in Springfield Saturday. More clips from each candidate, plus analysis to come on The Notebook.

MOORE: CUT GOVERNMENT BEFORE HEALTH CARE REFORM

Darrell Moore said his decade as Greene County prosecutor proves he can make government work and also criticized Washington for dealing with health care before cutting waste from the federal budget.

*WATCH CLIP ABOVE*

Applause Breaks During Speech: 5

Biggest Applause Line: Instead of dealing with healthcare, look at spending cuts

Red Meat Ranking: 4

Standout Soundbite: "No, I'm not saying I'm from the government and here to help you. I am saying I have made your government work for you in Greene County."

Saturday Showdown: Another 7th District Test

KISS THE RING

All of the announced candidates for the 7th Congressional District will face-off at KSFG's "Patriots in the Park" event in Springfield Saturday.

GOP contenders Sen. Jack Goodman, Auctioneer Billy Long, Prosecutor Darrell Moore, Sen. Gary Nodler and College Instructor Jeff Wisdom are all scheduled to speak in Fassnight Park from 12-2 p.m.

Wisdom, who is currently overseas, will address the crowd by phone, according to his campaign.

Independent candidate U.S. House candidate Dean Moore and U.S. Senate candidate Chuck Purgason are also expected to speak.

Each candidate will get about 10 minutes to address the crowd, and it will be moderated by the flamboyant KSGF host Vincent David Jericho.

The event is another public test for the 7th District contenders who are vying for early enthusiasm and support. Insiders will be closely watching which candidate captures the mostly conservative crowd.

*PLACE YOUR BETS HERE*

12 OPEN QUESTIONS:

1. How many jokes Billy Long will deliver -- and if he's got any new ones.

2. What gets bashed more -- the stimulus OR government healthcare.

3. The kind of reception "the base" gives Darrell Moore.

4. Since Jericho is for Wisdom, how much of the crowd will be pro-Wisdom.

5. If any of them publicly praise Roy Blunt with the knowledge of Jericho's feud with the Congressman.

6. Who wins the sticker/sign ground war.

7. Who gets more applause Goodman or Long.

8. Who gets more applause Goodman or Nodler.

9. Which candidate delivers the most red meat for the right.

10. If any of the 7th District candidates clap for anything Purgason says.

11. Dean Moore's relevancy.

12. Which candidate has grown/sharpened his message the most since entering the race.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fourth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings CLICK HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) He remains at the top of the pack due to his establishment support, his solid fundraising and his gradual organizational growth. As one politico put it, Goodman is the insta-pol: Just add water. They won't be bragging about it or putting it on a banner, but Goodman is the clear, purified establishment candidate. The most impressive part about Goodman's 2nd quarter fundraising report was it was fueled by small donors, according to a Notebook analysis. That's proof he is running a grass-roots campaign. It also shows many of his donors probably haven't maxed out yet. Goodman will need the money for defense, because next year, he'll have a large target on his back.

2. Billy Long -- (Up 2) Boosted by an announcement speech that showcased his broad support, Long seems to be surging. The usual GOP establishment types weren't the faces at Long's announcement -- and that's the auctioneer's stealth strength. A TARGET BBQ observer writes, "I saw more than a few people at TARGET who no one seemed to know. They came in, wrote checks, and put Billy Long stickers on." The establishment types aren't laughing at the knee-slappers Billy is serving up. They think he's "all hat, no cattle." And the loyalists call him "Billy come lately," for never having been active in local GOP politics until he was running himself. But the anti-Billy buzz is starting to simmer only because he's a real and growing threat -- and those around long enough know it. To peg Long as a Springfield-centric candidate might also be a mistake. He's done 200 auctions a year from Poplar Bluff to Joplin, which means his rolodex is to be reckoned with. Right now, his entire candidacy is based on the fact that "he ain't one of them guys." How that wears with voters -- and whether Long can build a message of credible leadership around it -- will determine whether he rises or falls.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Down 1) Quick: What's longer? Gary Nodler's fundraising contacts or his enemies list? The Notebook thinks the wrap against Nodler may be a little unfair (he's been nothing but gracious, honest and fair with me.) But the stories about Nodler continue to circulate -- because he's got some enemies. A bigger question for Nodler is early organization. Some Republicans at Greene County's TARGET barbeque were wondering why Nodler didn't have a bigger staff presence, handing out stickers, pamphlets and signs. A source says he was also flying solo at the Watermelon Feed in Neosho. Maybe he's just being fiscally conservative with his campaign account in the off-year. The conventional wisdom among politicos is that Nodler doesn't need to WIN the district's largest county, he just needs to place second and rack it up in Joplin. But when mere geography is your strongest asset, it just invites your opponents to fight on your turf. Nodler's fundraising will be impressive, and he'll be in this until the end. But will the citizens of Springfield really cede their U.S. House seat to its red-headed stepchild of Joplin?

4. Darrell Moore -- (Up 1) In his most recent Tweet, Darrell Moore said the three top issues he's hearing about at the Ozarks Empire Fair are healthcare, cap and trade and earmarks. And if you were to sit down and talk to Greene County's prosecutor on any of these topics, you'd get an earful of wonkish-policy points filled with data. Go no further than Moore's campaign site and you realize Moore is a well-read candidate who's actually thought about the issues. But that only goes so far in retail politics. His speeches are a bit too professorial and prosecutorial. Loosening up and injecting some humor would go a long way. But that takes time. The buzz is that a recent poll showed Moore beating the rest of the field. But that's just based on name identification. Moore's problem isn't being known, it's being loved. Can the GOP really fall for the most moderate candidate in the field? You'll know Moore matters when somebody hits him.

5. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 2) Since early June, The Sarah Steelman show has gone dark. Speculation about her 2010 intentions have slowed. In the spring, she dominated stories about the U.S. Senate race. Now coverage of Steelman has been compressed into a one-liner: "Steelman is now seen as less likely to run for U.S. Senate." Yet, she's still the elephant in the room in the 7th District. Despite her Rolla residence, no candidate will feel better until Steelman unambiguously makes her plans clear. Steelman would seem to be swimming upstream at this point, against the clock. Most candidates are laps ahead on organization, fundraising and staffing. But the Steelmanites scoff at that notion. Why pay a consultant this early when you've got David Steelman? The family is said to be vacationing overseas right now, and if there is still a decision to be made, early fall would be a likely date to watch for.

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) It's tough to campaign when you are overseas serving our country. As a Naval Reserve, Wisdom is currently fulfilling his obligation in Bahrain, but is expected to be home by Labor Day. "It seems the congressional race in SW MO is all figured out, let me offer this caveat in the words of Ronald Reagan...you ain't seen nothin' yet!!," Wisdom writes on his FACEBOOK page. Wisdom isn't likely to win this race (He dissed Roy Blunt the day he announced), but his presence and loyal following among some in the Tea Party movement could force some of his opponents to answer uncomfortable questions. Here's to safe service overseas for Wisdom so he can stir it up when he returns home.

7. Dean Moore -- (----) How difficult is it for the Democratic Party to field a credible candidate in the ruby red 7th District? An independent announced his candidacy before someone in the oldest political party in operation. Chad Livengood reports that Highlandville businessman Dean Moore is running for the 7th District U.S. House seat. Moore's got a booth at the Empire Fair, where he's been listening to people frustrated with the two-party system. Problem for him is, the 7th Congressional District is primarily a one-party system, dominated by Republicans.

Wisdom Will Continue Campaign, Despite Heading Overseas

7th District Congressional candidate Jeff Wisdom announced Thursday that he will continue his campaign despite his obligation to fufill a Naval Reserve training mission that will take him overseas for the next month.

Wisdom will soon head to Little Rock, Arkansas and then overseas to the Middle East for three to four weeks of scheduled training as part of the Naval Reserve.

"I'm looking forward to carrying out my responsibilities as a Navy Reservist," Wisdom said at a sparsely attended news conference. "Our campaign will go on."

*WATCH HIS COMMENTS ABOVE*

ALSO: LAMBASTES focus on "endorsements, fundraising & consultants."

"It begs the question that if our focus is still on money, who's got what endorsements, who's hired what consultants, how can we expect different results in Washington, D.C," Wisdom said, making a point worth considering.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the third installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Team Goodman has spent most of the past month staffing up, conducting grass-roots meetings and raising money. Did we mention raising money? No matter what the campaign finance numbers report later this month, Goodman's political allies will note that the Senator spent two-thirds of the fundraising quarter "in session." (But he better raise more than Nodler, who had just a month.) Still, Goodman's got his team in place (Miles Ross, campaign manager/David Barklage, consultant, etc . . .) and he's attempting to penetrate hard into Nodler's base. The campaign believes Joplin is Jack's number one area for growth. He held a fundraiser in Joplin which drew about 50 people and he's done the rounds in D.C. He can become the beneficiary of Nodler's enemies, but can he sustain Nodler's deep contacts around the state and his aggressive nature when the heat turns on?

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) In the end, both the Nodler and Goodman camps privately believe the race will come down to them, and Gary Nodler is pretty confident in his chances. Some politicos are wondering how Gregg Keller will be able to focus on day to day operations with half of his mind in Connecticut. But as Nodler notes, all the "who's who" consultants dip their pens in multiple reservoirs of ink. Nodler will report about $100 K raised in a month, and he's more than hinted he really hasn't even begun to tap his resources. (Can anybody else raise substantial dough in Kansas City and St. Louis?) Nodler thinks it's much too early to get consumed by the month-to-month horse race, but his backers believe that once voters get engaged they'll see the Joplin Senator as a doer -- a mover and shaker. And because the stakes are high, they believe voters will opt for the man in-the-arena over a wallflower.

3. Sarah Steelman -- (----) The Notebook is done guessing Sarah Steelman's intentions, but we do know someone has done polling in the 7th District testing her name identification. (Who would poll her name other than her?) And of course, the mere fact of phone calls as recent as a week and a half ago has got all the other 7th District candidates wondering. "Last time I checked, Sarah doesn't live in the 7th district," snapped one ally for another candidate. "She got killed in the Joplin area against Kenny," noted another. Yet, she makes her debut on the Power Ranking list because the buzz about a potential candiacy merits a slot. If Steelman gets in, it dramatically alters the field. Is she the Carpetbagging opportunist -- or the Maverick populist? Unanswerable for now. Because her strength lies in the eastern half of the district, she probably hurts Goodman/Long more than Gary Nodler -- initially. But even those who like Steelman fear the longer she waits, the more donors commit elsewhere.

4. Billy Long -- (Down 1) Billy Long's biggest strength is that he's the only major contender running who isn't on the government payroll. He's also worth a bunch of money. That counts in a tanking economy. Those close to Long say he'll hit his Quarter 2 fundraising mark, but they don't expect to win the quarter. His campaign team seems to be coming together. Spotted recently at a Long fundraiser: Consultants Jeff Roe & James Harris. Can they help turn his sweet twang into a real penetrating message? It remains the outstanding question. Long clearly remains the dark horse in the race -- the ultimate wild card with a question mark at the end.

5. Darrell Moore -- (Down 1) The candidate least happy about Moore's entrance into the race is Jack Goodman. Local attorneys say the Greene County prosecutor's bid has put a bit of a chill on Goodman's ability to tap his attorney friends for big dollar contributions. This raises another question: Will anyone turn up the heat to demand Moore resign his seat in order to pursue his campaign? What trial lawyer going up against Moore in the courtroom would feel comfortable lending financial aide to his Congressional opponent?

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Down 1) I'm not sure what this means, but I recently noticed I have two Jeff Wisdom friends on Facebook -- and both are the same person. Wisdom has recently been vacationing in Orlando. On June 25th, he announced key endorsements "from Goofy, Pluto, Eeyore, Pooh, and Tigger...Donald Duck and Mickey are holding out though...the darn liberals! LOL"

7. Hal Donaldson -- (Up 1) There's word that some local GOPers have suggested that the Convoy of Hope president run for State Senate rather than the 7th District. He hasn't done anything publicly to suggest a full-fledged campaign, but even if he had, he'd probably be in close to the same slot as far as political "power" goes. Maybe Donaldson and Steelman should get together and talk it out.

For Politico: Congressional Candidates Bluntly Reject Earmark Process

While Congressman Roy Blunt has been a proud and prolific earmarker, the five announced candidates running to replace him are stridently criticizing that process and making appropriations reform central to their U.S. House campaigns.

Read my piece for POLITICO HERE.

7th District Power Rankings

Who's The Strongest Of Them All?

This is the second installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's inaugural rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman (Up 1) - Although it obviously doesn't hurt, Goodman's roll out of endorsements from lawmakers and county officials isn't the main reason we're marginally placing him on the top of the heap. He's clearly the establishment candidate. That still counts for something in GOP primaries. But he also showed measured improvement in his second big campaign event. More comfortable, more confident, better energy, crisper message. The coaching is working. But he's also attempting to carve himself out as the fiscal conservative, drawing a harder line on earmarks than we'd expect from the party's guy. Goodman still needs to loosen up, and show that he's not timid. The honchos want a fighter in the 7th, not a lover. (He'll need to be quicker, sharper and tougher in a debate with Gary Nodler) Still, Goodman's reserved manner also benefits him. He has few enemies. Even those not on the team say they like Jack personally. They say he's a guy in it for the right reasons. That can't be said for who we see as his biggest threat.

2. Gary Nodler (Up 1) - The Notebook spent the day debating whether Goodman or Nodler should get top billing. We've concluded smart cases can be made for both scenarios. Nodler's up one notch because he's made it official, and he'll clearly be a force. He's run for the office twice, knows the district well, and for now, is the only candidate from the west. But we deny Nodler the # 1 ranking simply for the number of his enemies, who immediately emerged hours after he made his candidacy official. The joke goes that Gary Nodler always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. At times, he probably is. The Senate Appropriations Chair knows his stuff and carries himself with an heir of confidence. But his opponents think he's arrogant and a posturer, as well as a hypocrite on "Christian values" and "pork". Right to Life wasted no time taking him on -- not even giving him the courtesy of one day to bask in his announcement glow. And have you seen this video yet? As this campaign heats up, others will have their arrows out as well. Nodler will be a marked man in this race -- partly because he's a big dog in the pack, but also because he's a big target.

3. Billy Long (Down 2) - The cowboy-hat wearing auctioneer didn't do anything to drop his rank but . . . do nothing. Long had an impressive 1st quarter fundraising haul and he's already spent some of the money, on newspaper ads and a big Springfield billboard. Hey, when you got it, spend it . . . No? But he hasn't actually done a big media event yet. No big campaign roll out. No press conferences. He told The News-Leader's Chad Livengood, he'll hold a big event in July where reporters can grill him. Does that mean he's hitting the books for a month to put some meat on those policy bones? The first time Gary Nodler throws a fastball at him, he'll get away with laughing it off as the non-politician. But the second or third time, Long will be expected to articulate a coherent policy response. We're not saying it won't happen, we just point out that it's the elephant in the room. Another shot being quietly asked about Billy: How can the rich guy who lives in Highland Springs get away with being the regular Joe at the same time?

4. Darrell Moore (----) - The Greene County prosecutor wasn't even on our inaugural list. We had heard rumblings, but now know he's serious. His campaign kick-off speech went on way too long and lost focus, but Moore is clearly well-read and has taken the time to think about the issues he cares about. That gains him respect with the Republicans who may choose to sleep in on Sundays instead of head to the nearest megachurch. But Moore's issues aren't the issues the right usually gets excited about. No mention of gays, guns or abortion at his announcement. He wants to tackle healthcare, Social Security and our mounting debt. He wants to get away from the rhetorical bomb-throwing and broaden the GOP. Moore will be the moderate in the race, but where did that ever get anybody in a GOP primary? As prosecutor, Moore should have considerable name I.D. around the Ozarks. He's regularly on TV. (Now prudent stations should be extremely judicious about how often they put him on the tube. He is a politician now, afterall.) Moore will bring a level of seriousness and new ideas to a field that is predictably similar on ideological grounds. Now let's see if he can raise some money and pick up traction.

5. Jeff Wisdom (Stable) - The Ozarks Technical Community College instructor knows how to deliver a speech. He's been hitting some county Lincoln Day events, and getting good applause lines. But is he considered serious by Republicans -- or is he the Tom Tancredo/Ron Paul of the group? -- "Welcome to the party, but don't expect to get the last dance." Wisdom's 2nd quarter campaign finance report will (unfortunately) help determine if his candidacy has legs. But for now, we're enjoying his all-too-human Facebook messages. A recent status update: "Jeff Wisdom is wandering somewhere between confusion and uncertainty, clarity and resolution." We hear ya man, but if you're running for Congress, just remember: Everything you write can and will be used against you in a twisted television ad. (Then again, only if you're relevant.)

6. Kevin Elmer (Stable) - The Nixa alderman has been hitting the pavement hard, speaking to everyone from the College Republicans to a group of local architects. Elmer certainly has fire in the belly, and friends admire his work ethic. He made early, but clear pledges to the voters: For term limits and the Fair Tax, against Congressional pay raises. Now comes the hard part, putting together an organization that will be able to compete in a saturated field.

7. The Unknown (Down 1) - He or SHE could still be out there, but time is a ticking. Donors are committing, staffers are signing, resources are drying up. But if you are still out there, call me;)

8. Hal Donaldson (Stable) - Yes, he's stable. But last month we ranked Greene County Circuit clerk Steve Helms, former State Rep. B.J. Marsh and Jasper County Fair Tax advocate John Putnam. (We haven't heard anything more from any of three.) So Donaldson's basically stable by default, and nothing else. We still haven't heard a peep out of the Convoy of Hope president since he formed his exploratory committee. There hasn't been a large natural disaster. I'm guessing he's still exploring? Somebody call Spence!

7th District Power Rankings

This is the inaugural installment of a new monthly Political Notebook survey of the candidates for the 7th Congressional District and an unscientific ranking of each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

1. Billy Long - On the only two real pieces of empirical evidence we have, Long looks like the leader. He outraised the establishment during quarter one, with an impressive $145K fundraising haul. And he showcased his personal wealth by dropping 100 G's of his own. He begins with strong name identification (48%), an outsider's message, a cowboy hat and a charming southern twang. Long bolts out of the gate, propelled by anti-political likability and personal charisma. And by the looks of his finance report, he's already peeled off some of the traditional GOP donors. He's also a political novice, and promised to make it fun, which makes him the candidate in the field most likely to make a fatal mistake. Still, he's an Ozarks original. (Let's wait to see what happens when the consultants get a hold of him.) But, get some meat on those policy bones and Long may be most dangerous candidate in the field.

2. Jack Goodman - Goodman's entry into the race was no surprise. It was said he'd been being groomed for the position when Mr. Blunt decided to depart. Goodman is the anti-Long: Slim, soft-spoken, and suited up with political experience. Despite the populist environment, having the establishment still counts for something. Goodman pulled a coup when Reps. Shane Schoeller and Jay Wasson decided to step aside, but some Republicans are grumbling that he lacks the spark necessary to carry the 7th with the stature that's required in the conservative breadbasket. With Long in the race, it makes that charisma gap even starker. Goodman's been busy as a studious Senator. His real ramp up period comes mid May. That's why his second quarter, out-of-session campaign finance report will be a key barometer to measure come July.

3. Gary Nodler - He leads in the only private poll made public. But it was clearly designed to pump him up, and Nodler's been a bit cagey about his 2010 intentions. He's sending some signals he's not interested, that he'd rather travel the world with his wife than haul back and forth to Washington to be part of the Republican minority. But he's also quietly feeling out support, and keeping an eye on his rivals moves. The question is: Does a man who ran for Congress and lost, ever really lose the itch? And how do you pass up an open seat opportunity when you are the lion in the forest? Did we mention he's Appropriations Chair? If no one impresses Nodler (and it's doubtful anyone will), look for the Joplin Senator to get into the race -- but on his own terms. Of course, the minute he gets in, Long may just Steelmanize him, and call him "just another white guy in a suit."

4. John Putnam - He's not taken seriously by the political professionals, but as a Fair Tax advocate he automatically draws a small, but significant slice of support. Putnam, chairman of the Jasper County GOP, has recently been showing up at Tea Parties with fiery speeches. He's drawing crowds and winning good reviews -- simply for his tax reform message. That gives him a base of enthusiastic supporters to tap into. Putnam has yet to announce any official candidacy.

5. Jeff Wisdom - Who is Jeff Wisdom? We're still trying to figure it out. But this 39-year-old college professor was impressive at his campaign announcement, just for the sheer fact of the confidence he exuded. And he came out of nowhere. Is this the 7th's Seabiscuit? An Iraq veteran, Wisdom checks all the right conservative boxes -- but he separated himself by openly taking on Roy Blunt the day he announced. Taking on the man who could top your party's ticket in 2010 is quite the risk, but he gets credit for some political chutzpah. Now let's see him organize.

6. Kevin Elmer - The Nixa alderman has been quietly laying the groundwork for a campaign for months, but has not yet announced. That could change this May. Speaking to College Republicans at Missouri State recently, Elmer acknowledged he was nervous. But so far, he's the only person on the list who has articulated a clear set of principals and ideas he would follow in Congress. Term limits, no pay raise, work towards the Fair Tax. It's general but it's a start. Elmer will likely have to run a shoestring campaign and that will take a ton of gritty work. The Notebook would like to see him debate Wisdom for the "dark horse" crown.

7. The Unknown - Despite the list before you, there's still room for another compelling candidate with a niche or a different following. How about a candidate from Branson? Or, why not a woman? We dare not say "a moderate," but someone who strays from one of the GOP litmus tests? Sure, it's still the Ozarks. But it is almost 2010 folks.

8. B.J. Marsh - He's flirted with a candidacy, but that's B.J. for ya. The former central Springfield state representative has battled health problems, and endorsed Jay Nixon for Governor (yikes!). B.J.'s a tried and true moderate, which makes him a boffo interview, but a less than attractive candidate for primary voters. Still, his tourism business gives him hearty name I.D. But if he still has the itch, he may instead decide to rattle Bob Dixon's cage in the 2010 State Senate contest.

9. Hal Donaldson - On March 5th, Convoy of Hope president Hal Donaldson announced he had formed an exploratory committee. Almost two months later, we haven't heard a peep. The strongest signal Donaldson sent was his hire of former Matt Blunt/Sarah Steelman communications specialist Spence Jackson. Jackson is well-respected, and the hire of the likable spokesman seemed to show that Donaldson was serious. But he's gone dark since then. Lingering questions: Will he need to step down from his Convoy post if he runs -- and is it worth the risk? And is Tom Carter raising him any money?

10. Steve Helms - The Greene County Circuit Clerk said he's considering a run because none of the others in the field get him excited. The question is: Who does Helms excite? With all these other political hands to feed, Helms has to seriously consider whether he'd give up the seat he was just re-elected to, for the longest of longshots. One person that might be rooting for Helms to jump in? Gary Nodler. The more Springfield-centered candidates dive in, the more it divides up the vote, the better it is for the king of Joplin.

Got your own list? Thoughts about ours?
Start a debate on our TWITTER page.

Our next 7th District Power Ranking will be delivered on May 31st.

Defending Waterboarding & Bucking Blunt

WISDOM CARVES A DIFFERENT PATH

Republican congressional candidate Jeff Wisdom clearly separated himself from Rep. Roy Blunt on the day he launched his campaign. He candidly said he would carve a different path than Blunt in Washington and added that he doesn't think the average 7th District citizen feels like they've been represented the past 12 years.

*WATCH IT ABOVE*

"My intention is not to go there and spend the next 20 to 30 years of my life," Wisdom said, though he stopped short of taking a term limit pledge. "I believe that that limits democracy."

ON BLUNT:
"I believe Roy Blunt went to Washington D.C. and became part of the problem in Washington D.C. I think that he became beholden to a lot of special interests and I don't intend for that to happen . . . I just believe Roy Blunt became part of the establishment, and I don't want to be part of the establishment."



In the second clip, Wisdom backs waterboarding as an "effective tactic to gain information from detainees."

"I believe that we have gathered some very good information that likely prevented terrorist attacks on our soil through waterboarding," Wisdom said.

BUT critics have said there's no evidence waterboarding has ever worked:

"If there was an instance that these interrogations lead directly to the savings of lives and they could prove it, this information would be leaked by now," said former CIA officer Bob Baer on Hardball Wednesday night.

Wisdom served for a year in Iraq as part of the Navy Reserve.

He said he worries about a hasty pull-out in Iraq, but backs President Obama's policy to send more troops to Afghanistan.

*FULL CLIP ABOVE*

Wisdom Launches 7th District Congressional Bid

NUMERO TRES
College professor and Iraq veteran Jeff Wisdom became the third official candidate to enter the race to replace Roy Blunt in Congress.

*Watch clips from Wisdom's campaign kick-off above*

"I am a conservative, Christian, pro-life, veteran and proud of it," Wisdom said to a room of about 30 supporters in Springfield Tuesday.

But that's not what made his campaign announcement unique.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

Bucking Conventional Wisdom

"I don't want to be part of the establishment"

Jeff Wisdom's candidacy for Congress is the latest example of an increasingly vocal conservative movement that's fed up with the leaders of its own Republican Party -- and mobilizing to do something about it.

DEVELOPING . . .

Tonight on KY3 News @ 10

Add Another Candidate to the 7th

Iraq war veteran and Springfield economics professor Jeff Wisdom is expected to announce his candidacy to seek the Republican nomination for Roy Blunt's Congressional seat Tuesday.
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In an e-mail to reporters Sunday evening, Wisdom announced four 7th District campaign kick-off rallies on Tuesday, beginning in Point Lookout and ending in Bolivar.

The release describes the 39-year-old Wisdom as a 10-year Ozarks resident who served in Iraq and now works as an economics professor at Ozarks Technical Community College. His undergraduate degrees are in economics and political science. His graduate degrees are in business/economics and education. The release also says Wisdom attends Wesley United Methodist Church in Springfield.

HERE is an article that the University of Arkansas wrote about Wisdom leaving to serve in Iraq.

His campaign kick-off schedule Tuesday is as follows:

• 1 p.m. Keeter Center, College of the Ozarks, Point Lookout, Mo.
• 2:30 p.m. Shoney's Restaurant, Ozark, Mo.
• 4 p.m. The Library Center, Springfield, Mo.
• 7 p.m. Simon B's Bolivar, Mo.

Future rallies will be held in Barry, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton and Stone counties, according to the release.

Wisdom will become the third official Republican candidate to enter the race. Auctioneer Billy Long and State Sen. Jack Goodman have already announced their candidacies. Convoy of Hope President Hal Donaldson has launched an exploratory committee. Nixa alderman Kevin Elmer is likely to jump into the race, possibly as early as next month.