7th District Power Rankings

This is the seventh installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
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The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Up 1) For the first time in five months, The Notebook has a new candidate atop the Power Rankings. Auctioneer Billy Long returns to the number one ranking for the first time since the list debuted back on April 30th. Long has been a tour de force at raising cash, building up just under a 3-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over his next closest opponent. He's mixing an outsider, non-politician image with GOP insider money. And he's raising eyebrows from Washington, D.C. to Jefferson City. Long has charm, money, no voting record and the ability to run a populist campaign in a year that people are yearning for an outsider. Long doesn't want to lead the rankings. It's easier, after all, to thrive at the outsider. But being on top also guarantees a bulls eye on his back. Long's biggest strength might also be his biggest vulnerability: to shoot straight from the hip. But if he maintains a large resource advantage, he'll be able to answer any attack that comes his way. With a wink, nod and funny one-liner. The Billy Long way.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Up 1) Nodler returns to the second slot for the first time since August. His 3rd quarter fundraising failed below expectations and he's expected to relinquish his Senate Appropriations chairmanship soon, possibly even before Thanksgiving. But Nodler's pick-up of Roy Blunt's former chief of staff Gregg Hartley gave him some positive news to cap off the month. Hartley's D.C. connections will inevitably help Nodler raise cash in the beltway. But his blessing raises a larger question about where Blunt's allegiance lies in the 7th. "Hartley doesn't do anything without talking to Roy first," said one 7th District politico. Is Hartley's support a sign that Team Blunt is switching their allegiance to Nodler? Is Nodler now seen as the establishment's best chance at stopping Long? Now Nodler needs to show he can keep pace with Long's fundraising to earn that slot in the championship bout.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Down 2) Goodman falls to his lowest ranking since the Power Rankings began back in April. Some of his drop is self-inflicted, but part of it is a vicious whisper campaign that generated bad buzz for a candidate already reeling from a bad fundraising quarter. His burn rate is much too high, much too soon, so campaign consultant David Barklage has/will be taken off the list of expenses. Now Goodman has to figure out how not only to keep pace financially, but to boost his Mojo and convince skeptics he still and will be in the game. It's too early to write off Goodman, who was the leader of the Power Rankings for the last five straight months. He has the strongest grassroots team in place and still exerts loyalty in those outlying counties of Taney, Lawrence and Barry. No one around has a bad word to say about Jack. But the sentences involving him are now ending with, "Is he tough enough? Can he fight back?"

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is now being talked about a more of a spoiler than a viable contender to with the 7th. His name identification is still tops in Greene County. So who does that hurt most? We know Moore's presence is good for Nodler. But who does he siphon more votes away from? Goodman or Long. A smart politico outside the 7th says Moore hurts Long the most, because he takes right out of Billy's base of Greene County. It's too early to begin talking deals, but Moore could play kingmaker in a tight dicey race. And remember, no smart kingmaker cuts a deal without getting something in return.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The Notebook caught up with Wisdom at Tuesday night's anti-pension sales tax gathering downtown. After doing some radio with Vincent David Jericho, Wisdom worked the tables, quietly introducing himself to mostly college students, sipping on lattes. Did election night 2009 prove that the tea party movement isn't as potent and organized in southwest Missouri as suggested? If so, that's a setback for Wisdom's populist campaign.

6. Michael Wardell -- (----) The Nixa business owner and former Marine is articulate and thoughtful. And at his announcement, in one sitting, he unveiled more specifics than any of his rivals. Wardell said he got in the race because he was sick of hearing the red meat and empty rhetoric. He's furiously sending out releases in an attempt to break through the fray. But his promise to visit the district's twenty-some counties over the next few weeks (even though there's only 10) shows he has some outreach and catching up to do.

7. Mike Moon -- (Down 1) We haven't heard much out of Moon since he entered the race. But he does have a cool website that pops up a moon over the Capitol. And on his Facebook page, he's sitting on the trunk of an elephant. But if he held an official announcement kick-off, we could at least get him on Ky3 for 30 seconds.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the eighth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Stable) Stability reigned over the last month, so Long stays a top the heap. He continues to raise money and land high profile backers. The auctioneer is also clearly the most visible candidate in the field, in part due to his prolific Tweeting of his whereabouts. (He's the @clairecmc of the GOP). Branson's Peter Herschend was a nice recent coup for Long, who doesn't want to be the frontrunner. But in 2010 he'll know he is pretty quickly.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) The Joplin State Senator relinquished his Appropriations Chairmanship and recently had what an ally calls "a very successful D.C. swing", including a big event that former Roy Blunt chief of staff and D.C. power-hitter Gregg Hartley put together. Is Nodler making inroads on Long's cash advantage during a tough 4th quarter? It's certainly on his holiday wish list.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) After dropping to his lowest ranking since April last month, things have been relatively quiet in Goodman-land. His hired gun, David Barklage isn't as keen on dishing on his candidate as some of the other advisers in the race. It's no secret that returning calls isn't the strength of the GOP's leading State Senate consultant. But it leaves his status with the campaign somewhat in doubt.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is struggling to raise money, but a mid-November poll shows the power of name identification. The Wilson Research Strategies survey of 301 likely primary voters is mostly meaningless in a scattered race 10 months away. But it also showed Moore tied with Nodler among those who've made up their mind. He also boasted the highest favorable rating ratio. As much as his rivals want the field narrowed, the prosecutor remains plugging along. And why would he not? "I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The tea party-toting populist conservative didn't even earn enough respect to be included in the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC's November poll. The outsider has a base of support, but there's no evidence it's growing.

6. Michael Wardell -- (Stable) Say this: The guy knows how to put together a press release. Always available for comment, Wardell wants to opine on every latest issue: Afghanistan, healthcare, Billy Long. He definitely wields intellectual power. The question now is, what's next?

7. Mike Moon -- (Stable) The other Mike, curiously, did make it into the SWMO Leadership PAC poll. Moon registered 2 percent, in poll with a 5.6 percent margin of error. Not bad, but not enough to rock our rankings.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fifth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) For those of you volatility hounds, this is a snoozer. Goodman remains numero uno, because after a fair amount of reportage, The Notebook found there wasn't enough compelling evidence to drop the Mount Vernon Senator, despite increasing talk about his mediocre performances in public settings. "The guy is weak in social settings," writes one Republican. But he does have a ground game in place that's shoring up establishment support in counties across the district. Predictably, they love him in the counties he represents: "He's a gentleman for the people. He's for all types of people, the rich, the poor and the in between," gushes Barry County GOP vice-chair Barbara White. "Jack's the only one paying attention to us," says Stone County GOP vice-chair Connie Johnson. "I'm not hearing anybody talk about anyone else," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George. "But if they're not for Jack, I probably don't hang out with them," she chuckles. Goodman's been griping he hasn't been getting a fair shake with the press -- but see the pattern here? Women love him. I bet he polls better with them. His looks, his lighter touch. But for the men out there -- and the angry and tired -- he'll still have to answer that essential question: What real reason do I have to get excited and vote for you. Or as Sarah Steelman would say, "another white guy in a suit."

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Long was one of the big winners at the Patriots in the Park rally, and his Tweets give an impression of an active, aggressive campaign with growing momentum. His biggest compliment in August came when Goodman took a shot at him in public, suggesting 7th District voters need more than just a jokester who's dependent on advisers. GOPers say tension is building between the Long and Goodman camps and that the two men are noticeably not shaking hands at events together. Goodman has heard the footsteps as Long has toned his political muscle this summer -- his repertoire, his fundraising, his retail politics. But the fast-talking and tweeting auctioneer still seems a bit foreign to some. When The Notebook asked Lawrence County GOP chair James Young what he thought of Long's candidacy, he replied, "From what I hear, I don't know people feel he has the political expertise to accomplish a lot." But others notice he's becoming a threat. "I've been impressed by the amount of money he's raised," said Taney County GOP Chair Buddy Roberts. "For a no-name in the political arena, somebody out there is listening to him." Ironically enough, I think the Long camp is content to hear both of those statements. The most important thing Long has to do over the next several months is build a district-wide grassroots organization to rival Goodman's.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) Nodler rounds out the big three, and his allies think it's absurd the Power Rankings place him behind BOTH Goodman and Long. The Joplin Senator has been spending a good chunk of time in Greene County, and his team seems confident that Jasper will safely fall in line. He also has some high-dollar fundraisers lined up, which should make his next quarterly finance report stand out. But the main arguments for Nodler's success continue to be fundraising and geography and not personal likability. "I have never felt Gary was that big of a threat because of his lack of popularity," says Lawrence County GOP vice-chair Sherri George, an open Goodman supporter. "Sometimes I wonder how Gary continues to be re-elected. You never hear anybody say positive things about him," adds George. Ouch. (Calls to Jasper & Newton County chairs were not returned.) "I'm not sure how many people know of him," says Christian County GOP chair Ed Merritt. "I'd say Jack and Billy are probably the two frontrunners," Merritt said. To be sure, Nodler has his slice of the establishment pie. But over the entire district, it doesn't appear to be larger than Goodman's.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor has already shown signs of improvement in his stump speech, as he was able to rally the conservative Patriot Day crowd. But in a Notebook survey of county chairs and other insiders, Moore's name came up more often in counties west of Greene than Long's did. Chalk that up to Moore's powerful name ID. Wonder when the other candidates start complaining about Moore's free TV time as prosecutor? Either way, Moore's largest obstacle remains constant: how to break into the top three.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Up 1) Despite his close ties to Vincent David Jericho, it's tough to be overseas and compete with the big dogs. Still, Wisdom's eloquence helps him every time he's able to get in front of an audience. "I'm impressed by by a young individual who wants to make a change," says Taney County GOP chair Buddy Roberts. Wisdom has been telling his supporters that he can beat the others in a debate. But he's got to be here to debate. His campaign tells the Notebook that Wisdom will return to Springfield next week and be ready to go.

6. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 1) I'm thinking 2012. You?

7. The 'Other' Candidate -- (----)There's all this chatter that a new candidate is about to jump in the race. Does anyone out there believe another candidate -- besides Steelman -- could jump in this late and make a credible case for victory?

Donaldson Out

Convoy of Hope President Hal Donaldson has decided against a run for the 7th District Congressional seat, a knowledgeable Republican tells The Notebook.

Donaldson first announced he was forming an exploratory committee back in March and hired on Republican communications operative Spence Jackson, who worked for former Gov. Matt Blunt and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

Jackson's hire was a sign Donaldson was serious about the contest, but after forming a committee he never made any public pronouncements about his candidacy. A Donaldson ally said the Convoy president wanted to make a final decision by the end of the month and has pretty much done so.

Donaldson's decision against a run to replace Blunt leaves the following 5 Republican contenders with active campaigns: State Sen. Jack Goodman, State Sen. Gary Nodler, auctioneer Billy Long, Greene County prosecutor Darrell Moore and Ozarks Technical Community College instructor Jeff Wisdom.

To read the Notebook's most recent 7th District Power Rankings, click HERE

*Next power rankings to be published July 31st*

7th District Power Rankings

This is the third installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Team Goodman has spent most of the past month staffing up, conducting grass-roots meetings and raising money. Did we mention raising money? No matter what the campaign finance numbers report later this month, Goodman's political allies will note that the Senator spent two-thirds of the fundraising quarter "in session." (But he better raise more than Nodler, who had just a month.) Still, Goodman's got his team in place (Miles Ross, campaign manager/David Barklage, consultant, etc . . .) and he's attempting to penetrate hard into Nodler's base. The campaign believes Joplin is Jack's number one area for growth. He held a fundraiser in Joplin which drew about 50 people and he's done the rounds in D.C. He can become the beneficiary of Nodler's enemies, but can he sustain Nodler's deep contacts around the state and his aggressive nature when the heat turns on?

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) In the end, both the Nodler and Goodman camps privately believe the race will come down to them, and Gary Nodler is pretty confident in his chances. Some politicos are wondering how Gregg Keller will be able to focus on day to day operations with half of his mind in Connecticut. But as Nodler notes, all the "who's who" consultants dip their pens in multiple reservoirs of ink. Nodler will report about $100 K raised in a month, and he's more than hinted he really hasn't even begun to tap his resources. (Can anybody else raise substantial dough in Kansas City and St. Louis?) Nodler thinks it's much too early to get consumed by the month-to-month horse race, but his backers believe that once voters get engaged they'll see the Joplin Senator as a doer -- a mover and shaker. And because the stakes are high, they believe voters will opt for the man in-the-arena over a wallflower.

3. Sarah Steelman -- (----) The Notebook is done guessing Sarah Steelman's intentions, but we do know someone has done polling in the 7th District testing her name identification. (Who would poll her name other than her?) And of course, the mere fact of phone calls as recent as a week and a half ago has got all the other 7th District candidates wondering. "Last time I checked, Sarah doesn't live in the 7th district," snapped one ally for another candidate. "She got killed in the Joplin area against Kenny," noted another. Yet, she makes her debut on the Power Ranking list because the buzz about a potential candiacy merits a slot. If Steelman gets in, it dramatically alters the field. Is she the Carpetbagging opportunist -- or the Maverick populist? Unanswerable for now. Because her strength lies in the eastern half of the district, she probably hurts Goodman/Long more than Gary Nodler -- initially. But even those who like Steelman fear the longer she waits, the more donors commit elsewhere.

4. Billy Long -- (Down 1) Billy Long's biggest strength is that he's the only major contender running who isn't on the government payroll. He's also worth a bunch of money. That counts in a tanking economy. Those close to Long say he'll hit his Quarter 2 fundraising mark, but they don't expect to win the quarter. His campaign team seems to be coming together. Spotted recently at a Long fundraiser: Consultants Jeff Roe & James Harris. Can they help turn his sweet twang into a real penetrating message? It remains the outstanding question. Long clearly remains the dark horse in the race -- the ultimate wild card with a question mark at the end.

5. Darrell Moore -- (Down 1) The candidate least happy about Moore's entrance into the race is Jack Goodman. Local attorneys say the Greene County prosecutor's bid has put a bit of a chill on Goodman's ability to tap his attorney friends for big dollar contributions. This raises another question: Will anyone turn up the heat to demand Moore resign his seat in order to pursue his campaign? What trial lawyer going up against Moore in the courtroom would feel comfortable lending financial aide to his Congressional opponent?

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Down 1) I'm not sure what this means, but I recently noticed I have two Jeff Wisdom friends on Facebook -- and both are the same person. Wisdom has recently been vacationing in Orlando. On June 25th, he announced key endorsements "from Goofy, Pluto, Eeyore, Pooh, and Tigger...Donald Duck and Mickey are holding out though...the darn liberals! LOL"

7. Hal Donaldson -- (Up 1) There's word that some local GOPers have suggested that the Convoy of Hope president run for State Senate rather than the 7th District. He hasn't done anything publicly to suggest a full-fledged campaign, but even if he had, he'd probably be in close to the same slot as far as political "power" goes. Maybe Donaldson and Steelman should get together and talk it out.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the sixth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Scroll down to the bottom of the 7th District GOP committee website and you'll find a banner graphic for Sen. Jack Goodman. Notice there's not one for Sen. Gary Nodler. This may be an innocent meaningless symbol, but nonetheless one that adds to the perception of Goodman opponents that Mt. Vernon's man is the chosen one. To the faithful, Goodman is visible, working hard and holding firm. No real spark yet, but that's not yet necessary when your organization is in ship shape and gliding above the others. Look for another solid fundraising quarter for Goodman. (Slow and steady wins the race). And if he's somehow able to edge Gary Nodler in money bags, it would be a tremendous coup.

2. Billy Long -- (Stable) Based on his Tweets, Billy Long is everywhere. At the Ducks Unlimited dinner in Joplin. At the Tea Party rally on a Saturday afternoon. At the Polk County GOP meeting in Bolivar. "If there's a Republican event that's attractive, he's there," notes a supporter. "He's trying to get out and meet people. You'd be surprised that some people don't think you're serious if you're not an elected official," that supporter went on. Billy has made clear he'll have the money. (Last month, he netted Sarah Steelman fundraiser/ally Jeff Layman). Now he's trying to prove he's got the mojo. For the past few months, that's meant less dialing for dollars and more pounding the pavement. He has solidified himself as the happy outsider, happy to march to Washington just to personally tell House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "No." The auctioneer stays slotted second, and as the underdog, wouldn't mind being lower.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) As far as fundraising goes, Nodler should own the third quarter. This will be his first full three-month run at the money pot as an official candidate. This summer and early fall, he hasn't had to balance campaigning with Senatorial duties any longer. And it could be his last full quarter as Senate Appropriations Chair. If Nodler doesn't win the third quarter, look for rival camps to seize on it as a significant letdown. Then again, aides from several camps have already warned The Notebook that it's fundraising predictions are too high. "It's brutal out there," said one of the economic environment. Still, if this stays a 3-man ran race like it's shaping up to be, Nodler will have the money, clout and campaign experience to fight the good fight.

4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) After a solid speech in August, Moore's lack of visibility has perplexed some insiders. He was the only major candidate not in attendance at the Missouri Republican Assembly dinner featuring Joe Wilson. And while it may be unfair to judge the frequency of ones Twitter posts, Moore did have a month long gap between between Sept. 9th and Oct. 4th with no activity. Hopefully for his sake, he was raising money. (But word is he hates asking for it.) Still, if he's to break into the top tier, he'll need to put up a respectable number this quarter. Even some of Moore's supporters will acknowledge the Greene County prosecutor isn't very comfortable shaking hands and kissing babies. But that's a requirement to win this type of hands-on race. Going through the '09-'10 budget line-by-line is impressive, but pure name identification can only carry a candidate so far.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) Tanned and back from Bahrain, you might have thought Wisdom would have capitalized on his service overseas with some type of creative welcome home event that would've caught media attention. Wisdom is an impressive individual, goes the buzz . . . And he would make a terrific candidate for state representative. Still, Wisdom has no real reason to get out of this race and still attracts a loyal slice of the Fair Tax/anti-big government conservatives that others like Long would love to snatch up. Sure, it's ripe for an outsider to win this year. But Wisdom is like the 15 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. He's got backers, but needs a lot to go right to knock off each of the big dogs. His biggest problem, observes one young Republican? "He is surrounded by people telling him he can win."

6. Mike Moon (----) Stalking horse or real deal? It's a mystery to some. The 50-year-old Moon is the most recent entry into the 7th District fray. We do know he works at St. John's Fitness Center but resides in Lawrence County. Does that mean he siphons votes from Goodman? Too soon to tell. But he could do some creative bumper sticker slogans with that catchy name.

7th District Power Rankings

This is the fourth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings CLICK HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) He remains at the top of the pack due to his establishment support, his solid fundraising and his gradual organizational growth. As one politico put it, Goodman is the insta-pol: Just add water. They won't be bragging about it or putting it on a banner, but Goodman is the clear, purified establishment candidate. The most impressive part about Goodman's 2nd quarter fundraising report was it was fueled by small donors, according to a Notebook analysis. That's proof he is running a grass-roots campaign. It also shows many of his donors probably haven't maxed out yet. Goodman will need the money for defense, because next year, he'll have a large target on his back.

2. Billy Long -- (Up 2) Boosted by an announcement speech that showcased his broad support, Long seems to be surging. The usual GOP establishment types weren't the faces at Long's announcement -- and that's the auctioneer's stealth strength. A TARGET BBQ observer writes, "I saw more than a few people at TARGET who no one seemed to know. They came in, wrote checks, and put Billy Long stickers on." The establishment types aren't laughing at the knee-slappers Billy is serving up. They think he's "all hat, no cattle." And the loyalists call him "Billy come lately," for never having been active in local GOP politics until he was running himself. But the anti-Billy buzz is starting to simmer only because he's a real and growing threat -- and those around long enough know it. To peg Long as a Springfield-centric candidate might also be a mistake. He's done 200 auctions a year from Poplar Bluff to Joplin, which means his rolodex is to be reckoned with. Right now, his entire candidacy is based on the fact that "he ain't one of them guys." How that wears with voters -- and whether Long can build a message of credible leadership around it -- will determine whether he rises or falls.

3. Gary Nodler -- (Down 1) Quick: What's longer? Gary Nodler's fundraising contacts or his enemies list? The Notebook thinks the wrap against Nodler may be a little unfair (he's been nothing but gracious, honest and fair with me.) But the stories about Nodler continue to circulate -- because he's got some enemies. A bigger question for Nodler is early organization. Some Republicans at Greene County's TARGET barbeque were wondering why Nodler didn't have a bigger staff presence, handing out stickers, pamphlets and signs. A source says he was also flying solo at the Watermelon Feed in Neosho. Maybe he's just being fiscally conservative with his campaign account in the off-year. The conventional wisdom among politicos is that Nodler doesn't need to WIN the district's largest county, he just needs to place second and rack it up in Joplin. But when mere geography is your strongest asset, it just invites your opponents to fight on your turf. Nodler's fundraising will be impressive, and he'll be in this until the end. But will the citizens of Springfield really cede their U.S. House seat to its red-headed stepchild of Joplin?

4. Darrell Moore -- (Up 1) In his most recent Tweet, Darrell Moore said the three top issues he's hearing about at the Ozarks Empire Fair are healthcare, cap and trade and earmarks. And if you were to sit down and talk to Greene County's prosecutor on any of these topics, you'd get an earful of wonkish-policy points filled with data. Go no further than Moore's campaign site and you realize Moore is a well-read candidate who's actually thought about the issues. But that only goes so far in retail politics. His speeches are a bit too professorial and prosecutorial. Loosening up and injecting some humor would go a long way. But that takes time. The buzz is that a recent poll showed Moore beating the rest of the field. But that's just based on name identification. Moore's problem isn't being known, it's being loved. Can the GOP really fall for the most moderate candidate in the field? You'll know Moore matters when somebody hits him.

5. Sarah Steelman -- (Down 2) Since early June, The Sarah Steelman show has gone dark. Speculation about her 2010 intentions have slowed. In the spring, she dominated stories about the U.S. Senate race. Now coverage of Steelman has been compressed into a one-liner: "Steelman is now seen as less likely to run for U.S. Senate." Yet, she's still the elephant in the room in the 7th District. Despite her Rolla residence, no candidate will feel better until Steelman unambiguously makes her plans clear. Steelman would seem to be swimming upstream at this point, against the clock. Most candidates are laps ahead on organization, fundraising and staffing. But the Steelmanites scoff at that notion. Why pay a consultant this early when you've got David Steelman? The family is said to be vacationing overseas right now, and if there is still a decision to be made, early fall would be a likely date to watch for.

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) It's tough to campaign when you are overseas serving our country. As a Naval Reserve, Wisdom is currently fulfilling his obligation in Bahrain, but is expected to be home by Labor Day. "It seems the congressional race in SW MO is all figured out, let me offer this caveat in the words of Ronald Reagan...you ain't seen nothin' yet!!," Wisdom writes on his FACEBOOK page. Wisdom isn't likely to win this race (He dissed Roy Blunt the day he announced), but his presence and loyal following among some in the Tea Party movement could force some of his opponents to answer uncomfortable questions. Here's to safe service overseas for Wisdom so he can stir it up when he returns home.

7. Dean Moore -- (----) How difficult is it for the Democratic Party to field a credible candidate in the ruby red 7th District? An independent announced his candidacy before someone in the oldest political party in operation. Chad Livengood reports that Highlandville businessman Dean Moore is running for the 7th District U.S. House seat. Moore's got a booth at the Empire Fair, where he's been listening to people frustrated with the two-party system. Problem for him is, the 7th Congressional District is primarily a one-party system, dominated by Republicans.

7th District Power Rankings

Who's The Strongest Of Them All?

This is the second installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.

***

The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's inaugural rankings, click HERE

1. Jack Goodman (Up 1) - Although it obviously doesn't hurt, Goodman's roll out of endorsements from lawmakers and county officials isn't the main reason we're marginally placing him on the top of the heap. He's clearly the establishment candidate. That still counts for something in GOP primaries. But he also showed measured improvement in his second big campaign event. More comfortable, more confident, better energy, crisper message. The coaching is working. But he's also attempting to carve himself out as the fiscal conservative, drawing a harder line on earmarks than we'd expect from the party's guy. Goodman still needs to loosen up, and show that he's not timid. The honchos want a fighter in the 7th, not a lover. (He'll need to be quicker, sharper and tougher in a debate with Gary Nodler) Still, Goodman's reserved manner also benefits him. He has few enemies. Even those not on the team say they like Jack personally. They say he's a guy in it for the right reasons. That can't be said for who we see as his biggest threat.

2. Gary Nodler (Up 1) - The Notebook spent the day debating whether Goodman or Nodler should get top billing. We've concluded smart cases can be made for both scenarios. Nodler's up one notch because he's made it official, and he'll clearly be a force. He's run for the office twice, knows the district well, and for now, is the only candidate from the west. But we deny Nodler the # 1 ranking simply for the number of his enemies, who immediately emerged hours after he made his candidacy official. The joke goes that Gary Nodler always thinks he's the smartest guy in the room. At times, he probably is. The Senate Appropriations Chair knows his stuff and carries himself with an heir of confidence. But his opponents think he's arrogant and a posturer, as well as a hypocrite on "Christian values" and "pork". Right to Life wasted no time taking him on -- not even giving him the courtesy of one day to bask in his announcement glow. And have you seen this video yet? As this campaign heats up, others will have their arrows out as well. Nodler will be a marked man in this race -- partly because he's a big dog in the pack, but also because he's a big target.

3. Billy Long (Down 2) - The cowboy-hat wearing auctioneer didn't do anything to drop his rank but . . . do nothing. Long had an impressive 1st quarter fundraising haul and he's already spent some of the money, on newspaper ads and a big Springfield billboard. Hey, when you got it, spend it . . . No? But he hasn't actually done a big media event yet. No big campaign roll out. No press conferences. He told The News-Leader's Chad Livengood, he'll hold a big event in July where reporters can grill him. Does that mean he's hitting the books for a month to put some meat on those policy bones? The first time Gary Nodler throws a fastball at him, he'll get away with laughing it off as the non-politician. But the second or third time, Long will be expected to articulate a coherent policy response. We're not saying it won't happen, we just point out that it's the elephant in the room. Another shot being quietly asked about Billy: How can the rich guy who lives in Highland Springs get away with being the regular Joe at the same time?

4. Darrell Moore (----) - The Greene County prosecutor wasn't even on our inaugural list. We had heard rumblings, but now know he's serious. His campaign kick-off speech went on way too long and lost focus, but Moore is clearly well-read and has taken the time to think about the issues he cares about. That gains him respect with the Republicans who may choose to sleep in on Sundays instead of head to the nearest megachurch. But Moore's issues aren't the issues the right usually gets excited about. No mention of gays, guns or abortion at his announcement. He wants to tackle healthcare, Social Security and our mounting debt. He wants to get away from the rhetorical bomb-throwing and broaden the GOP. Moore will be the moderate in the race, but where did that ever get anybody in a GOP primary? As prosecutor, Moore should have considerable name I.D. around the Ozarks. He's regularly on TV. (Now prudent stations should be extremely judicious about how often they put him on the tube. He is a politician now, afterall.) Moore will bring a level of seriousness and new ideas to a field that is predictably similar on ideological grounds. Now let's see if he can raise some money and pick up traction.

5. Jeff Wisdom (Stable) - The Ozarks Technical Community College instructor knows how to deliver a speech. He's been hitting some county Lincoln Day events, and getting good applause lines. But is he considered serious by Republicans -- or is he the Tom Tancredo/Ron Paul of the group? -- "Welcome to the party, but don't expect to get the last dance." Wisdom's 2nd quarter campaign finance report will (unfortunately) help determine if his candidacy has legs. But for now, we're enjoying his all-too-human Facebook messages. A recent status update: "Jeff Wisdom is wandering somewhere between confusion and uncertainty, clarity and resolution." We hear ya man, but if you're running for Congress, just remember: Everything you write can and will be used against you in a twisted television ad. (Then again, only if you're relevant.)

6. Kevin Elmer (Stable) - The Nixa alderman has been hitting the pavement hard, speaking to everyone from the College Republicans to a group of local architects. Elmer certainly has fire in the belly, and friends admire his work ethic. He made early, but clear pledges to the voters: For term limits and the Fair Tax, against Congressional pay raises. Now comes the hard part, putting together an organization that will be able to compete in a saturated field.

7. The Unknown (Down 1) - He or SHE could still be out there, but time is a ticking. Donors are committing, staffers are signing, resources are drying up. But if you are still out there, call me;)

8. Hal Donaldson (Stable) - Yes, he's stable. But last month we ranked Greene County Circuit clerk Steve Helms, former State Rep. B.J. Marsh and Jasper County Fair Tax advocate John Putnam. (We haven't heard anything more from any of three.) So Donaldson's basically stable by default, and nothing else. We still haven't heard a peep out of the Convoy of Hope president since he formed his exploratory committee. There hasn't been a large natural disaster. I'm guessing he's still exploring? Somebody call Spence!

7th District Power Rankings

This is the inaugural installment of a new monthly Political Notebook survey of the candidates for the 7th Congressional District and an unscientific ranking of each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
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The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

1. Billy Long - On the only two real pieces of empirical evidence we have, Long looks like the leader. He outraised the establishment during quarter one, with an impressive $145K fundraising haul. And he showcased his personal wealth by dropping 100 G's of his own. He begins with strong name identification (48%), an outsider's message, a cowboy hat and a charming southern twang. Long bolts out of the gate, propelled by anti-political likability and personal charisma. And by the looks of his finance report, he's already peeled off some of the traditional GOP donors. He's also a political novice, and promised to make it fun, which makes him the candidate in the field most likely to make a fatal mistake. Still, he's an Ozarks original. (Let's wait to see what happens when the consultants get a hold of him.) But, get some meat on those policy bones and Long may be most dangerous candidate in the field.

2. Jack Goodman - Goodman's entry into the race was no surprise. It was said he'd been being groomed for the position when Mr. Blunt decided to depart. Goodman is the anti-Long: Slim, soft-spoken, and suited up with political experience. Despite the populist environment, having the establishment still counts for something. Goodman pulled a coup when Reps. Shane Schoeller and Jay Wasson decided to step aside, but some Republicans are grumbling that he lacks the spark necessary to carry the 7th with the stature that's required in the conservative breadbasket. With Long in the race, it makes that charisma gap even starker. Goodman's been busy as a studious Senator. His real ramp up period comes mid May. That's why his second quarter, out-of-session campaign finance report will be a key barometer to measure come July.

3. Gary Nodler - He leads in the only private poll made public. But it was clearly designed to pump him up, and Nodler's been a bit cagey about his 2010 intentions. He's sending some signals he's not interested, that he'd rather travel the world with his wife than haul back and forth to Washington to be part of the Republican minority. But he's also quietly feeling out support, and keeping an eye on his rivals moves. The question is: Does a man who ran for Congress and lost, ever really lose the itch? And how do you pass up an open seat opportunity when you are the lion in the forest? Did we mention he's Appropriations Chair? If no one impresses Nodler (and it's doubtful anyone will), look for the Joplin Senator to get into the race -- but on his own terms. Of course, the minute he gets in, Long may just Steelmanize him, and call him "just another white guy in a suit."

4. John Putnam - He's not taken seriously by the political professionals, but as a Fair Tax advocate he automatically draws a small, but significant slice of support. Putnam, chairman of the Jasper County GOP, has recently been showing up at Tea Parties with fiery speeches. He's drawing crowds and winning good reviews -- simply for his tax reform message. That gives him a base of enthusiastic supporters to tap into. Putnam has yet to announce any official candidacy.

5. Jeff Wisdom - Who is Jeff Wisdom? We're still trying to figure it out. But this 39-year-old college professor was impressive at his campaign announcement, just for the sheer fact of the confidence he exuded. And he came out of nowhere. Is this the 7th's Seabiscuit? An Iraq veteran, Wisdom checks all the right conservative boxes -- but he separated himself by openly taking on Roy Blunt the day he announced. Taking on the man who could top your party's ticket in 2010 is quite the risk, but he gets credit for some political chutzpah. Now let's see him organize.

6. Kevin Elmer - The Nixa alderman has been quietly laying the groundwork for a campaign for months, but has not yet announced. That could change this May. Speaking to College Republicans at Missouri State recently, Elmer acknowledged he was nervous. But so far, he's the only person on the list who has articulated a clear set of principals and ideas he would follow in Congress. Term limits, no pay raise, work towards the Fair Tax. It's general but it's a start. Elmer will likely have to run a shoestring campaign and that will take a ton of gritty work. The Notebook would like to see him debate Wisdom for the "dark horse" crown.

7. The Unknown - Despite the list before you, there's still room for another compelling candidate with a niche or a different following. How about a candidate from Branson? Or, why not a woman? We dare not say "a moderate," but someone who strays from one of the GOP litmus tests? Sure, it's still the Ozarks. But it is almost 2010 folks.

8. B.J. Marsh - He's flirted with a candidacy, but that's B.J. for ya. The former central Springfield state representative has battled health problems, and endorsed Jay Nixon for Governor (yikes!). B.J.'s a tried and true moderate, which makes him a boffo interview, but a less than attractive candidate for primary voters. Still, his tourism business gives him hearty name I.D. But if he still has the itch, he may instead decide to rattle Bob Dixon's cage in the 2010 State Senate contest.

9. Hal Donaldson - On March 5th, Convoy of Hope president Hal Donaldson announced he had formed an exploratory committee. Almost two months later, we haven't heard a peep. The strongest signal Donaldson sent was his hire of former Matt Blunt/Sarah Steelman communications specialist Spence Jackson. Jackson is well-respected, and the hire of the likable spokesman seemed to show that Donaldson was serious. But he's gone dark since then. Lingering questions: Will he need to step down from his Convoy post if he runs -- and is it worth the risk? And is Tom Carter raising him any money?

10. Steve Helms - The Greene County Circuit Clerk said he's considering a run because none of the others in the field get him excited. The question is: Who does Helms excite? With all these other political hands to feed, Helms has to seriously consider whether he'd give up the seat he was just re-elected to, for the longest of longshots. One person that might be rooting for Helms to jump in? Gary Nodler. The more Springfield-centered candidates dive in, the more it divides up the vote, the better it is for the king of Joplin.

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Our next 7th District Power Ranking will be delivered on May 31st.