Wednesday, December 09, 2009

7th District Power Rankings

This is the eighth installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Billy Long -- (Stable) Stability reigned over the last month, so Long stays a top the heap. He continues to raise money and land high profile backers. The auctioneer is also clearly the most visible candidate in the field, in part due to his prolific Tweeting of his whereabouts. (He's the @clairecmc of the GOP). Branson's Peter Herschend was a nice recent coup for Long, who doesn't want to be the frontrunner. But in 2010 he'll know he is pretty quickly.

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) The Joplin State Senator relinquished his Appropriations Chairmanship and recently had what an ally calls "a very successful D.C. swing", including a big event that former Roy Blunt chief of staff and D.C. power-hitter Gregg Hartley put together. Is Nodler making inroads on Long's cash advantage during a tough 4th quarter? It's certainly on his holiday wish list.

3. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) After dropping to his lowest ranking since April last month, things have been relatively quiet in Goodman-land. His hired gun, David Barklage isn't as keen on dishing on his candidate as some of the other advisers in the race. It's no secret that returning calls isn't the strength of the GOP's leading State Senate consultant. But it leaves his status with the campaign somewhat in doubt.
4. Darrell Moore -- (Stable) The Greene County prosecutor is struggling to raise money, but a mid-November poll shows the power of name identification. The Wilson Research Strategies survey of 301 likely primary voters is mostly meaningless in a scattered race 10 months away. But it also showed Moore tied with Nodler among those who've made up their mind. He also boasted the highest favorable rating ratio. As much as his rivals want the field narrowed, the prosecutor remains plugging along. And why would he not? "I'll probably be in until the end as long as we can keep it close," he said.

5. Jeff Wisdom -- (Stable) The tea party-toting populist conservative didn't even earn enough respect to be included in the Southwest Missouri Leadership PAC's November poll. The outsider has a base of support, but there's no evidence it's growing.

6. Michael Wardell -- (Stable) Say this: The guy knows how to put together a press release. Always available for comment, Wardell wants to opine on every latest issue: Afghanistan, healthcare, Billy Long. He definitely wields intellectual power. The question now is, what's next?

7. Mike Moon -- (Stable) The other Mike, curiously, did make it into the SWMO Leadership PAC poll. Moon registered 2 percent, in poll with a 5.6 percent margin of error. Not bad, but not enough to rock our rankings.


Steven Reed said...

Some thoughts to ponder---Concerning the ratings a dem could walk in and pick up the pieces. And other reps. may still join. All a money and power game as usual?

voter n 7th district said...

I just wonder if the "campaign school" is going to be helpful to Goodman! He has the personality of a wet paper towel! Looks like this time he is going to have to work for the job instead of just riding the coat tails of the influential GOP!