Bellwether Begone!

A.P. CALLS MISSOURI FOR MCCAIN

Call Comes More Than 2 Weeks After Election Day

McCain Won By 3,632 votes with all jurisdictions reporting

More than two weeks after Election Day, the Associated Press today declared John McCain the winner in Missouri, a hotly contested Republican-leaning state where McCain and President-elect Barack Obama both campaigned hard.

McCain leads Obama by 3,632 votes with all jurisdictions reporting, according to unofficial results, a difference of .12 percentage points out of more than 2.9 million votes cast, the AP reports.

The AP notes that McCain's victory breaks the state's 52-year streak of picking winning presidential candidates. Missouri is, though, developing something of a reputation for extremely tight races. Senator Claire McCaskill eked out a victory in the wee hours in the 2006 mid-terms, and Obama beat Hillary Clinton there in the primary after some networks initially called the state for her.

McCain's win in the Show-Me State leaves Obama with 365 Electoral College votes, and McCain with 173.

Mo. Bellwether "Slip Sliding Away"

IT'S MCNIXICANS!!!

THE HOTLINE PONDERS THE SHOW-ME STATE'S ELECTION OUTCOME

HOW DID NIXON WIN SO BIG AND OBAMA APPEAR TO FALL SHORT?

Just 4,778 votes separate John McCain and Barack Obama BUT "Terry Jones, professor of political science at the University of Missouri, St. Louis, said the state is now solidly Republican and that an Obama win was a longshot. Missouri is socially conservative and still boasts an evangelical population (35%) that exceeds national numbers (26%). The magnitude of the Nixon win, not the narrowness of Obama's loss, is the notable exception. "If you take a careful look at the numbers," he said of Missouri's bellwether status, "it was slip sliding away and has been for the past eight years."

The Hotline also picks up the term that The Notebook first coined, and kind of botches it: "It turns out there were a lot of split ticket voters in Missouri this year; local reporters have taken to calling them "McNixons."

Decision '08: Obama, Nixon Win

KY3's FULL COVERAGE of Tuesday's historic election can be found HERE.

At this hour, it looks like Peter Kinder may be the only statewide Republican in Missouri that survives. A Democratic Party official says both Brad Lager and Mike Gibbons have called their opponents to concede.

IN MISSOURI -- McCain is clinging to a small lead

GOVERNOR -- NIXON
LT. GOV -- KINDER
ATTORNEY GENERAL -- KOSTER
SECRETARY OF STATE -- CARNAHAN
TREASURER -- ZWEIFEL

Numbers!

Can't do T.V. (at least yet). Big technical issue. Not that surprising.

Might as well T-Y-P-E . . .

1% in in Indiana . . . Obama 52%-47%
1% in in New Hampshire . . . Obama 67%-33%
1% in in Kentucky . . . McCain 62%-37%

For It Is Time

***DECISION 2008***

Tuesday, Nov. 4th 2008

Where will you be?

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT ON FINAL GET OUT THE VOTE EFFORTS HERE (See John McCain For Barack Obama)

STAY WITH . . .

***KY3 News & The Political Notebook for coverage ALL DAY***

Check For LIVE TWITTERING HERE

The KY3 Coverage plan: Ky3's David Catanese with Jay Nixon's campaign at The Pageant in St. Louis; Ky3's Marie Saavedra with Kenny Hulshof's campaign in Columbia; Ky3's Sara Sheffield with Greene County Republicans; Ky3's Chad Plein with Greene County Democrats; Ky3's Paula Morehouse will cover turnout and possible problems.

WATCH FOR LIVE TEAM COVERAGE BEGINNING AT KY3 NEWS @ 5 &6, THEN ELECTION UPDATES EVERY HALF HOUR BEGINNING AT 6:52 P.M. CENTRAL.

***ELECTION NIGHT'S KY3 NEWS @ 10 WILL BEGIN EARLY AT 9:54 P.M.***

CHECK YOUR LOCAL BALLOT HERE; CHECK MY PREDICTIONS HERE

***YOUR ELECTION NIGHT TIP SHEET***

1. Two states to watch very early in the night: Virginia, where polls close at 6 p.m. (CT) and North Carolina, where polls close at 6:30 p.m. (CT). If these states are too close to call, or leaning Obama, the Democrat probably has an easy path to victory on an uncharacteristically early election night.

2. It's very possible we could know who the next President of the United States is by 7:05 Central Time.

3. If Obama is able to take 40% in Greene County (Kerry nabbed 37%) and/or the 7th Congressional District, he's likely to win the state of Missouri.

4. If you worship Karl Rove, his electoral map gives Obama 338 EVs to McCain's 200. (He has McCain winning Missouri and North Carolina, I do not.)

5. The final RealClearPolitics general election poll average puts Obama up +7.3 points nationally.

6. The final poll of Missouri from Fox News/Rasmussen is just as it should be. Deadlocked, Obama 49%, McCain 49%.

7. Key Counties I'll be watching closely outside of Greene for trends, margins, and their 2004 results:

• St. Charles: Bush 59%, Kerry 41%; Blunt 56%, McCaskill 43%; Kinder 55%, Cook 43%
• Jefferson: Bush 50%, Kerry 49%; Blunt 49%, McCaskill 49%; Cook 51%, Kinder 46%
• St. Genevieve: Kerry 53%, Bush 47%; McCaskill 51%, Blunt 47%; Cook 55%, Kinder 43%
• Lincoln: Bush 57%, Kerry 42%; Blunt 54%, McCaskill 45%; Kinder 50%, Cook 47%

8. Here are Greene's key 2004 margins: Bush 62%, Kerry 37%; Blunt 61%, McCaskill 37%; Kinder 61%, Cook 36%

9. In 2004, about 125,000 people in Greene County voted for President and Governor. Greene County Clerk Richard Struckoff is predicting 140,000 to vote in Greene County Tuesday.

10. There's usually a 250-thousand vote drop-off from President to Treasurer. Whoever can get more of their supporters to finish off their ballots will carry that down-ballot race.

What To Watch For

MONDAY NIGHT QUARTERBACKING: MY KY3 NEWS @ 6 ANALYSIS OF THE FIRST THING TO WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT

Axelrod Does "This Week" From Springfield

Barack Obama's chief campaign strategist David Axelrod appeared on ABC's This Week from Springfield Sunday morning. He briefly mentioned Obama's Springfield rally during the interview:

"We were here in Springfield last night, a very Republican part of Missouri. We got 40,000 people at a rally late last night. It was about three times as large as any crowd, any politician has ever drawn here in Springfield, and that gives us great hope for Tuesday."

(Just because they keep saying 40,000 doesn't make it true.)

Mason-Dixon Has McCain Up 1 in Mo.

MCCAIN 47%, OBAMA 46%
NBC Mason-Dixon Poll of Missouri
Oct. 29-30, 625 likely voters, 4% Margin of Error

Other Mason-Dixon Battleground Polls:
COLORADO: Obama +5
NEVADA: Obama +4
NORTH CAROLINA: McCain +3
OHIO: McCain +2
VIRGINIA: Obama +3

Jackson Makes The Case For McCain

Col. Jack Jackson speaks to KY3 News about John McCain's path to victory in Missouri and across the country.

Says Republican internal polling shows Obama down in Missouri . . . "He's not winning it right now."

WATCH FULL CLIP ABOVE

Closing Arguments: Claire vs. Kit

CLAIRE WARMS 'EM UP

"I don't know about you, but I'm thinking this crowd's a little bit bigger than Bass Pro Shops parking lot," said Sen. Claire McCaskill, as she warmed up attendees of Barack Obama's Saturday night rally. McCaskill also promised Southwest Missouri hunters that Barack Obama "will protect your second amendment rights."

BOND: WE'LL USE VISIT AS OUR RALLYING CRY

Sen. Kit Bond told KY3 News that despite the polls and punditry, John McCain still can win this election. He said Missouri would go for McCain, but acknowledged "it's going to be tight." "He'll warn all of the Republicans in southwest Missouri that there's a real fight. Nobody questions that."

Huck in Joplin Monday

Mike Huckabee campaigns for John McCain and Sarah Palin in Joplin Monday.
He'll rally at the Joplin Regional Airport at 3:30 p.m.

20, 25, 30, 35?

PICK A NUMBER

***

Add up these three pictures below, and YOU tell ME how big Barack Obama's crowd was in Springfield.

***

Team Obama says 35 to 40,000, and cites, Leslie Ballew, Quality Assurance Manager Springfield Public Schools.

***

The media had fun playing the crowd estimation game all night long.

Here's what I can tell you. It was BIGGER than Palin. But probably not 40 thousand.

Definitely more than 20 thousand. Highly feasible it was 25 thousand. Maybe 30. There were a significant amount of people from out of state. They weren't "bused in," they just drove in from Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma. Impossible to put a number of what percentage were out of state though.

But you tell me, does 30 thousand people look very different from 35 thousand?

Obama Live @ 10

OBAMA T.V.

Barack Obama's speech in Springfield Saturday was timed just right to hit the 10 p.m. newscasts. Obama made it on KY3's live 1o p.m. broadcast during three separate occasions.

WATCH HIS LIVE T.V. TIME HERE

***

REPUBLICANS RESPOND WITH JACK JACKSON

"The actual polls we look at," says Jackson. "(Obama's) down three points here in Missouri. That indicates to me he's trying to get Missouri. He knows he has to have Missouri, and he's not winning it right now."

WATCH JACKSON'S RESPONSE THAT GOT ON KY3 HERE

Obama Scene Setter

HOW MANY CAN FIT?

The lines are stretching blocks, almost to Sunshine Street (beginning at Parkview).

Obama's advance team says they are going to try to accommodate everyone.

Here's what the scene looks like hours before Barack's visit.

We'll try to take similar pictures when its packed, so you can compare and give us your crowd size.

First In Line

17-year old Parkview High School senior Brittany Perry can't vote in this election. But that didn't stop her from being first in line early this morning for Barack Obama's rally in Springfield.

***WATCH WHY SHE'S WILLING TO WAIT ABOVE***

Obama rallies in Springfield tonight around 9 p.m.

***Stay with KY3 News for continuing coverage ALL DAY***

WATCH KY3 News @ 6 for TEAM COVERAGE of THE PREVIEW

WATCH KY3 News @ 10 for a LIVE LOOK at the RALLY

VOTE: Who Was The Best Sarah Palin?

With 3 Days To Go, A Little Levity

***Vote For Your Favorite
Halloween Costume***

#1 THE HOME TEAM

#2 PALIN VS. PALIN

#3 PALIN VS. PALIN

#4 HILLARY VS. PALIN

#5 PALIN VS. PALIN

#6 MONSTER VS. PALIN

#7 PALIN VS. PALIN

Ghouls & Goblins

***HALLOWEEN NIGHT***

Who has the best political costume in Springfield?

(And how many ladies think they have what it takes to pull off Palin?)

DEVELOPING . . .

How Many Will He Draw?

We took to the field at Parkview High School's JFK Stadium to give you a look.

Watch the KY3 News @ 10 Report HERE to see the venue.

THEN . . . start guessing on how many can fit.

Bond: Obama Wants Empathy For "The Gay, The Minority"

At Sarah Palin's rally in Cape Girardeau Thursday, Missouri Sen. Kit Bond warmed up the crowd by lambasting Barack Obama's judicial philosophy.

As quoted by CBS News, here's what Bond said:

"Just this past week, we saw what Barack Obama said about judges. He said, ‘I’m tired of these judges who want to follow what the Founding Fathers said and the Constitution. I want judges who have a heart, have an empathy for the teenage mom, the minority, the gay, the disabled. We want them to show empathy. We want them to show compassion.'"

In July 2007, Obama spoke to Planned Parenthood about judges. Here's how NBC quoted him: "We need somebody who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom. The empathy to understand what it's like to be poor, or African-American, or gay, or disabled, or old. And that's the criteria by which I'm going to selecting my judges. At at time when the real war is being fought abroad, some would have us fight Culture Wars here at home. I am absolutely convinced that culture wars are just so '90s. Their days are growing dark."

Rural Missouri Keeping McCain Competitive

Missouri: McCain 50%, Obama 47%

Politico/Insider Advantage Poll

814 voters, 3.4% Margin of Error

***

In St. Louis County, Obama racked up an imposing 17-point lead, 55%-38%. McCain’s ability to break even against Obama in these two states, despite the Democrat’s strong performance in suburban and urban areas suggests that the Arizona senator is drawing strong support from the less densely populated areas in these states, said InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery.

***

"I think what’s happened is, the less populated areas of these states are coming in heavily for McCain," Towery said, adding that Obama’s performance in St. Louis County was "good, but it’s not great." "It’s good, but it’s not overwhelming," Towery explained. "And that’s in one of the more sophisticated, urban locations in Missouri."

***

ALSO: OBAMA'S SOFT BLACK SUPPORT?

Towery acknowledged that the poll showed a closer-than-expected race among black Missourians – Obama took a lower-than-usual 65 percent of the group – and said that if African-Americans ultimately vote for Obama by the huge margin analysts expect, "it will make the race closer."