Monday, July 31, 2006

Rasmussen: McCaskill Moves Ahead

In the latest seesaw that is the Missouri U.S. Senate race, Democrat Claire McCaskill has inched ahead of Senator Jim Talent in the July Rasmussen tracking poll to lead the incumbent 45% to 42%.

The candidates were tied at 42% in the survey just last month.

"While a 3 point-lead for the challenger is well within the survey's margin of sampling error, it is a concern for any incumbent to be so far below the 50% level of support at this point in the campaign," Rasmussen reports in its write-up.

Both candidates register 83% support from voters in their own party, but McCaskill leads with 62% of self-identified moderates.

In the poll, Talent's favorability rating has dropped 5 points since June to 52% -- while his unfavorable rating has climbed to 42%. McCaskill's overall favorability has also dropped one point to 56%, however those surveyed who report having a very favorable opinion of the state auditor has jumped from 19% to 24%.

This survey of 500 likely voters was taken on July 20th, the same day that Talent's new television ad launched. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.

Will Talent get a bounce in the August poll because of the TV blitz?

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