7th District Power Rankings

This is the third installment of The Notebook's monthly survey of the 7th Congressional District field and each candidate's chances of winning the GOP nomination in 2010.
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The higher the candidate's ranking, the more likely he/she is positioned to win the nomination at this point and time -- and be put on the path to replace Roy Blunt in the U.S. House.

For last month's rankings, click HERE.

1. Jack Goodman -- (Stable) Team Goodman has spent most of the past month staffing up, conducting grass-roots meetings and raising money. Did we mention raising money? No matter what the campaign finance numbers report later this month, Goodman's political allies will note that the Senator spent two-thirds of the fundraising quarter "in session." (But he better raise more than Nodler, who had just a month.) Still, Goodman's got his team in place (Miles Ross, campaign manager/David Barklage, consultant, etc . . .) and he's attempting to penetrate hard into Nodler's base. The campaign believes Joplin is Jack's number one area for growth. He held a fundraiser in Joplin which drew about 50 people and he's done the rounds in D.C. He can become the beneficiary of Nodler's enemies, but can he sustain Nodler's deep contacts around the state and his aggressive nature when the heat turns on?

2. Gary Nodler -- (Stable) In the end, both the Nodler and Goodman camps privately believe the race will come down to them, and Gary Nodler is pretty confident in his chances. Some politicos are wondering how Gregg Keller will be able to focus on day to day operations with half of his mind in Connecticut. But as Nodler notes, all the "who's who" consultants dip their pens in multiple reservoirs of ink. Nodler will report about $100 K raised in a month, and he's more than hinted he really hasn't even begun to tap his resources. (Can anybody else raise substantial dough in Kansas City and St. Louis?) Nodler thinks it's much too early to get consumed by the month-to-month horse race, but his backers believe that once voters get engaged they'll see the Joplin Senator as a doer -- a mover and shaker. And because the stakes are high, they believe voters will opt for the man in-the-arena over a wallflower.

3. Sarah Steelman -- (----) The Notebook is done guessing Sarah Steelman's intentions, but we do know someone has done polling in the 7th District testing her name identification. (Who would poll her name other than her?) And of course, the mere fact of phone calls as recent as a week and a half ago has got all the other 7th District candidates wondering. "Last time I checked, Sarah doesn't live in the 7th district," snapped one ally for another candidate. "She got killed in the Joplin area against Kenny," noted another. Yet, she makes her debut on the Power Ranking list because the buzz about a potential candiacy merits a slot. If Steelman gets in, it dramatically alters the field. Is she the Carpetbagging opportunist -- or the Maverick populist? Unanswerable for now. Because her strength lies in the eastern half of the district, she probably hurts Goodman/Long more than Gary Nodler -- initially. But even those who like Steelman fear the longer she waits, the more donors commit elsewhere.

4. Billy Long -- (Down 1) Billy Long's biggest strength is that he's the only major contender running who isn't on the government payroll. He's also worth a bunch of money. That counts in a tanking economy. Those close to Long say he'll hit his Quarter 2 fundraising mark, but they don't expect to win the quarter. His campaign team seems to be coming together. Spotted recently at a Long fundraiser: Consultants Jeff Roe & James Harris. Can they help turn his sweet twang into a real penetrating message? It remains the outstanding question. Long clearly remains the dark horse in the race -- the ultimate wild card with a question mark at the end.

5. Darrell Moore -- (Down 1) The candidate least happy about Moore's entrance into the race is Jack Goodman. Local attorneys say the Greene County prosecutor's bid has put a bit of a chill on Goodman's ability to tap his attorney friends for big dollar contributions. This raises another question: Will anyone turn up the heat to demand Moore resign his seat in order to pursue his campaign? What trial lawyer going up against Moore in the courtroom would feel comfortable lending financial aide to his Congressional opponent?

6. Jeff Wisdom -- (Down 1) I'm not sure what this means, but I recently noticed I have two Jeff Wisdom friends on Facebook -- and both are the same person. Wisdom has recently been vacationing in Orlando. On June 25th, he announced key endorsements "from Goofy, Pluto, Eeyore, Pooh, and Tigger...Donald Duck and Mickey are holding out though...the darn liberals! LOL"

7. Hal Donaldson -- (Up 1) There's word that some local GOPers have suggested that the Convoy of Hope president run for State Senate rather than the 7th District. He hasn't done anything publicly to suggest a full-fledged campaign, but even if he had, he'd probably be in close to the same slot as far as political "power" goes. Maybe Donaldson and Steelman should get together and talk it out.

Nodler Estimates $100 K Haul in 30 Days

State Senator Gary Nodler tells The Notebook he'll report raising about $100,000 during the first month of his 7th District Congressional campaign.

The second campaign fundraising quarter ends Tuesday night. Reports are due mid-July. But Nodler said he's proud of his money haul, considering "we actually didn't even have a month" to tap donors. Nodler announced his Congressional bid on May 28th. Full quarter reports are based on 3-month increments of fundraising.

"Since we started we haven't had one fundraising event, not one dinner or one house party," Nodler said in an interview with The Notebook Tuesday night. "We'll report somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000, and we're very pleased. I think some people are too focused on the quarter by quarter reporting, like a sprint, but it's a marathon. You've got to have sustainability," Nodler explained.

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OTHER CAMPAIGN Q & A with NODLER:

ON HIS TEAM: Says Gregg Keller will serve as "general consultant." "He'll be the main point of contact, and we've got a couple of volunteers," Nodler said. Asked about Keller's commitment to a U.S. Senate race in Connecticut, Nodler pointed out that none of the other candidates have consultants who won't be dedicated to other races as well. "Gregg is in touch with me multiple times a day. He'll be in Missouri more than he's in Connecticut. He's handling the Connecticut race, but all of these consultants will be handling multiple races. This race is a top two priority for Keller," Nodler said.

ON THE FIELD: "I wouldn't write anybody off. It's an unpredictable year. The public mood is fluid. There's really no way to sit here in 2009 and get a real accurate account of the climate in 2010. The filing deadline isn't even close. It's too early for anyone to be dismissive. I can recall when everybody wrote off John McCain when his campaign went bankrupt in the summer. I'm not about to dismiss any candidates."

ON HIS OWN LIKABILITY: Asked about how he'll handle the perception that he has more enemies than Senate colleague Jack Goodman, Nolder responded, "I've got a lot more people that like me than Jack does too. It goes both ways." "I'm not too polarizing . . . People want to elect legislators to Congress. If the objective is to find a neutral or unremarkable person, or someone who doesn't have as much substance, that's probably not me," he said.

Kinder Calls Nixon Bonding Plan "Another Bailout"

Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder has come out staunchly against Gov. Jay Nixon's proposed bonding initiative, a plan designed to help finance capital projects around the state.

Nixon's bond proposal is seen as a way to pursue most of the construction projects he cut or withheld from the 2010 budget he signed last week.

"Our nation is facing the greatest economic recession since the Great Depression. The governor’s bonding plan is nothing more than another government bailout that will put our state in debt for nearly a quarter of a century," Kinder said in a statement. "The 2010 balanced budget that was passed by the legislature took into account all the realities of the current recession. The key focus of our past legislative session was job creation, and our budget reflected that priority. This bonding initiative is merely a debt plan that will fail to put any Missourians back to work in the near future. The risk of failure is too great," he added.

"I strongly urge the governor to utilize the one time funds available in the state's bank account and fund the construction projects that legislators authorized just a few months ago. That is a plan that will truly make a difference for hardworking Missourians," Kinder added.

The Kansas City Star's Jason Noble notes that while House Speaker Ron Richard also issued a statement critical of the bonding initiative Tuesday, he supported a similar plan which passed the House earlier this year.

NRSC Backs Blunt

ENDORSEMENT TRAIN KEEPS ROLLING

The U.S. Senate Minority Leader and the Senate GOP campaign arm has thrown their support behind Roy Blunt's 2010 campaign.

The backing from Sen. Mitch McConnell and National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) chair John Cornyn follows a flurry of endorsements for Blunt during a month where he's focused on uniting the Republican establishment around his U.S. Senate campaign.

"Throughout his tenure in Congress and during the early days of this campaign, Congressman Roy Blunt has demonstrated that he understands the difficult issues facing the people of Missouri," said Cornyn in a statement. "While the likely Democrat nominee prefers to remain silent or undecided on the challenges confronting our country, Roy Blunt is - as he always has - providing critical leadership at home and in Washington."

The Blunt campaign said that this is only the 2nd open seat endorsement by the NRSC in the country.

That the Blunt campaign is even touting this endorsement is telling of the position they knew they were in just months ago when it heard dissatisfaction from conservatives and felt the pressure of numerous primary threats.

ALSO: Later Monday, the Blunt campaign announced the endorsement of Cape Girardeau State Senator Jason Crowell. "In his public service Roy has always represented Missouri's common sense, conservative values, supporting limited government and fiscal responsibility," Sen. Crowell said in a statement.

Crowell becomes the 19th of 23 Senate Republicans who have endorsed Blunt.

Asked about the timing of his endorsement Crowell told The Notebook: "I didn't want to during session and I wanted to talk to Roy Blunt first. I got to this weekend and he earned my support."

Crowell said he was not waiting for another potential candidate to enter the race: "I have had no conversations with Sarah Steelman and she did not factor in," adding jokingly,"and no i was not thinking of running."

AND: The Carnahan campaign sent out a release to donors today, attempting to capitalize on a weekend "GOP pig roast."

On Saturday, Blunt was quoted saying that a vote for Carnahan would be like a vote for "her friends that are pro-abortion, or anti-Second Amendment, or environmental extremists."

Wrote Carnahan Finance Director Emily Elbert: "In Robin's email on Friday, she talked about moving past the partisan bickering and finding real solutions for Missouri's families, not the big special interests invested in the status quo. Well, this weekend Republican insiders who also happen to be big supporters of pork-barrel spending went to a pig-roast and proved her point. Lloyd Smith, Peter Kinder and Congressman Roy Blunt attacked Robin with the same old mudslinging we're all so sick of hearing. CLICK TO HELP ROBIN FIGHT BACK AGAINST THE PARTISAN ATTACKS!"

The second quarter fundraising deadline is tomorrow.

Another Nixon Donor Wins A Fee Office

Another campaign contributor to Gov. Jay Nixon has been awarded a license fee office -- and Republicans are calling foul.
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On Friday, the Department of Revenue announced three new bids for contracts in Bolivar, Savannah and St. Charles. Ken Kielty of Kielty Enterprises Inc. has been awarded the St. Charles office. The Missouri GOP has identified $18,435 in contributions to Nixon from entities linked to Kielty during the 2008 cycle.

The Notebook identified $5,000 in contributions from the 1009 Devonshire Lane address that Kielty is most often associated with.

The Department of Revenue released the bids Friday afternoon, which is widely as a viewed as a way to bury unfavorable news. But the GOP release came Monday afternoon.

"Burying stories by sending out press releases on a Friday afternoon is the oldest trick in the book," said Lloyd Smith, Executive Director of the Missouri Republican Party. "For the second consecutive week, Jay Nixon attempted to avoid criticism by announcing as late as possible on a Friday that he had rewarded a major campaign contributor with a license office. Nixon clearly knows that his actions fly in the face of his pledge to clean up the process, but instead of actually fixing the problem, he is simply trying to hide it," Smith added.

By the state GOP's calculation, license offices have been awarded to people who have given around $80,000 in campaign contributions to Nixon.

ALSO: T & J Stark Enterprises LLC has been awarded the contract to operate the Bolivar License Office. The company is affiliated with the current office agent, Karen Jean Stark, who has been the agent since 2005. The office will move to a new location at 450 S. Main Ave. (Southgate Center Mall).

Monday Fun

The latest cartoon from the Missouri Record has a little fun with us & Twitter.

Check out all of the Record's cartoons by clicking HERE.

Week 24: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 24 GRADE: A -

After Gov. Jay Nixon announced $430 million dollars in cuts and restrictions from the 2010 state budget, the Missouri Republican Party accused him of "mismanagement." But it appears that Nixon was able to swing his ax without the tree falling back on him. Vetoes are never pleasant. They are a test of priorities. But while there was the expected disappointment and grumbling, Nixon seemed to dodge major fallout from his decisions. When Nixon cut $4.5 million for a business incubator in Southeast Missouri, the dean of the business school told the Southeast Missourian, "it's disappointing, and we understand the situation." When Nixon sliced $10 million for a highway interchange in Jefferson City, the local Chamber of Commerce didn't seem surprised, calling the project "a long-shot." KBIA even quoted a sympathetic Sen. Gary Nodler, explaining that cuts were needed due to deteriorating revenues. Heck, he even shrunk government, firing 200 more employees (isn't that conservative?). And the Governor even flexed some muscle by vetoing MoDOT money in retaliation for taxpayer financed poll the agency used to show support for the motorcycle helmet law. It's not that the cuts aren't without local consequences, it's that most people seem to be giving Nixon a pass. The economy is rough, so the state has to tighten its belt. Even the Governor talked about rolling the dice and praying "our budget turns around." But he quickly added, "Frankly, that is the exact type of thinking that has landed so many other states in the dire straits they find themselves in today." Oh, and one more thing: Nixon made his cuts the day Michael Jackson died. As a media savvy friend of mine concluded, "Most regular people won't know about it, and the rest will forget."

Skelton Promises Hearings on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

The Hill reports that House Armed Services Committee Chair Ike Skelton has agreed to hold hearings on the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy regarding gays in the military.

Skelton's decision was reportedly, in part, based on pressure from fellow Democrats.

"On Thursday, freshman Rep. Jared Polis (D-Colo.) and Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) challenged and urged House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton to take action on already existing legislation—the Military Readiness Enhancement Act—which repeals the ban," wrote The Hill. "As a consequence, Skelton -- who played a major role in crafting Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” -- promised to hold hearings to weigh the implications of a repeal."

BUT: Some Senators, like Michigan's Carl Levin believe it will take White House leadership to overturn the ban.

AND: Service members and veterans marched to the White House on Saturday in order to protest the law that bans openly gay people from serving in the military.

Striking Ike

The Missouri Republican Party has issued a rare attack on Rep. Ike Skelton following his vote for an energy-climate bill that narrowly cleared the U.S. House Friday.

The vote on the legislation was 219-212.

44 Democrats voted against it; 8 Republicans voted for it.

Missouri Republican Party Chair David Cole said Skelton's vote shows he's completely "lost touch" with his district.

"After more than three decades in Washington, Representative Ike Skelton has completely lost touch with the families, farmers, and businesses in his district. Skelton is complicit in yet another Washington power-grab. Just like the auto bailouts, the so-called stimulus bill, and the proposed government takeover of health care, the government is using ‘global warming’ as an excuse to assert more control over private business and industry—and Skelton’s decision to vote for the massive energy tax will end up costing Missourians every time they turn on the lights or drive a car," said Cole in a statement released Friday.

"Sadly, this was another vote about politics, not people. Skelton decided it was easier to side with East and West Coast liberals like Nancy Pelosi than to do what was right for hardworking Missourians. The people of Missouri never asked for—nor can they afford—this legislation which has been called 'the biggest tax in American history," he added.
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Here's how it's being covered:

POLITICO: ". . . a major victory for President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that left Republicans fuming about a “national energy tax” they said would exacerbate the nation’s economic woes."

NEW YORK TIMES: "The vote was the first time either house of Congress had approved a bill meant to curb the heat-trapping gases scientists have linked to climate change . . . [It] could lead to profound changes in many sectors of the economy, including electric power generation, agriculture, manufacturing and construction."

ATLANTIC POLITICS: "How much would you pay for cap-and-trade? About $19 a month? Then you're an average American. That's according to this fancy graph (after the jump) drawn up by Nate Silver based on a Washington Post poll."

MSNBC: "Now, the heavy lifting moves to the Senate. And it's not going to be easy. It will likely be reworked before it eventually comes to a vote after the July 4th recess in the other chamber."

Nixon Commits to "Common" Education Standards

Gov. Jay Nixon signed an agreement Friday that commits the state of Missouri to participating in the development of a common core of state standards in education.

The agreement is the first step for Missouri to agree to adopt core standards for states in English and Math for elementary and secondary students.

"Missouri has been a leader in developing high standards and assessments, and will continue in this role," Gov. Nixon wrote in a letter with the agreement, which was sent to the National Governors Association (NGA) Center for Best Practices.

Because of an ongoing search for a new Commissioner of Education, Nixon said the state was initially going to wait to sign on. "I believe, however, that the development of Common Core Standards is important to warrant taking this initial step and signing on in my capacity as Governor," Nixon said.

The Common Core Standards Initiative is being jointly led by the NGA Center for Best Practices and the Council of Chief State School Officers.

The goal is to have a common core of state standards that states can voluntarily adopt. States may choose to include additional standards beyond the common core as long as the common core represents at least 85 percent of the state’s standards in English language arts and mathematics.

MoGOP Knocks Nixon For Dodge on Office Cuts

A day after the Governor announced $105 million dollars in cuts and another $325 million dollars in withholds, The Missouri Republican Party has hopped on Jay Nixon's dodge of a question about trimming the budget of his own office.

"Are you planning on making reductions in the Governor’s office as well,?" asked Associated Press reporter David Lieb. "I plan on losing 8 or 10 pounds this summer," Nixon responded during a Jefferson City press conference.

The MoGOP has posted the video HERE.

Said MoGOP Executive Director Lloyd Smith:

"Nixon was asked a legitimate question about whether he would make the same sacrifices he is asking of everyone else. It’s an answer that Missourians deserve to know. After all, this is the same governor who increased salaries of some of his staff by as much as 45% . . ."

WH: Missouri Has Tapped 72% of Highway Stimulus

BIDEN: MO STIMULUS ON TRACK

The White House announced Thursday that Missouri has already put to work 72 percent of its stimulus dollars for highway projects.

That amounts to about $320 million dollars. Under the stimulus law, states are required to use 50 percent of their highway funds by June 29, 2009.

"By delivering on these projects ahead of schedule and under-budget, we have been able to do even more than we expected -- create more job opportunities more quickly," said Vice President Joe Biden in a statement.

"Every state not only met the 12o-day deadline, they beat it," said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood. "This is a testament to the fact that we're putting money out there and quickly helping to get the economy back on track."

Missouri's largest stimulus project is the New Madrid-Pemiscot I-55, a 44-mile long pavement of north and southbound lanes.

Nixon Explains Vetoes, Acknowledges Toughest Cut

"NONE OF THEM ARE ESPECIALLY EASY"

Missouri Governor Jay Nixon signed the new state budget into law today -- but not before slicing $105 million dollars out of it.

One of the smallest dollar vetoes was $3.5 million dollars targeted for dentists who care for Medicaid patients. In the end, dentists still received a reimbursement increase in the 2010 budget. But it still counts as a cut for a Governor who ran his campaign on restoring Medicaid coverage, but has now run into the realities of a fiscal freefall.

*WATCH NIXON COMMENT ON HIS VETOES ABOVE*

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS REPORT HERE

Other Vetoes Include:
$24.7 million Interoperability (emergency radio system)
$16.5 million MOHELA Projects
$12.6 million ethanol funding beyond FY 2011
$12.4 million care management and participant case management
$10 million highway access to old Penitentiary Site
$5 million community college maintenance & repair increase
$3.5 million dental rate increase (leaves ½)
$20.0 million in various projects across all departments, including funding that will not be needed prior to FY 2012.
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ALSO: DENTAL DIRECTOR GIVES NIXON A PASS ON REIMBURSEMENT CUT

"I completely understand the Governor's struggle . . . He's done well with what he has."

*WATCH BELOW*

Rogetta Prueitt, director of the Children's Smile Center in Ozark, says she understands why the full reimbursement rate needed to be cut.

BUT in the KY3 News @ 10 report, Prueitt outlines how important reimbursement rates are in helping improve access. She says there is only 1 private dentist in Christian County who will accept Medicaid patients. The Children's Smile Center currently serves 380 Medicaid children, from Christian & Stone counties.

It's 10 p.m. and Yes, Staff Knows Where Our Governor Is

"I remain in constant contact with my staff"

In response to a boffo question by KSMU's Jennifer Moore about protocol to maintain contact with staff, Gov. Jay Nixon said he hasn't even thought about "going off the radar."

WATCH THE GIVE & TAKE ---

INCLUDING Moore's keen observation that Nixon was nursing a cold ---

"I'm not nursing it very well," he responded.

ON KEEPING IN TOUCH:

"I remain in constant contact with my staff . . . They remain in constant contact with me I should say," Nixon said with a smile, gesturing at press aide Scott Holste. Nixon said staff knows where he is "24-7, 365"

"I have not had the occasion to even giving really much thought of going off the radar screen -- it's a pretty busy job," Nixon added.

Examiner Corrects Blunt Characterization

The Washington Examiner has issued a correction for the way it characterized Congressman Roy Blunt in a story about Gov. Mark Sanford's sex scandal.

Yesterday, the Examiner wrote this sentence: Roy Blunt, the former House Majority Leader who is now a GOP candidate for governor in Missouri, is no stranger to scandal, having gone through an affair, a public divorce and remarriage under the scrutiny of the press.

A Blunt spokesman called that sentence "incredibly inaccurate."

This morning the Examiner modified its sentence to remove the allegation of an affair.

Here's how the new sentence reads: "Rep. Roy Blunt, the former House Majority Leader who is now a GOP candidate for governor in Missouri, is no stranger to scandal, having gone through a public divorce and remarriage under the scrutiny of the press."

Interestingly enough, the Examiner did NOT correct that Blunt is running for U.S. Senate, not Governor.

Even more curious, that both the Democratic National Congressional Committee and Blunt's office were aggressively urging a Notebook correction. Kind of an odd thing: Blunt's people obviously wanted the correction, while Democrats seemed to be eager to see it gain more attention, even if it involved a mistake.

Nixon Carves $100 Million From Budget

CHOPPING BLOCK

Gov. Jay Nixon has stripped $105 million dollars from the $23 billion dollar operating budget he signed Thursday.

The Governor is also withholding an additional $325 million dollars as the state faces declining revenues.

Included in Nixon's line item vetoes are portions of the money budgeted for a new emergency responder radio system, college construction projects, ethanol plants subsidies and a Medicaid rate increase for dentists. Also being vetoed is funding for a new highway interchange in Jefferson City that lawmakers said was necessary to help redevelop the site of the former Missouri State Penitentiary.

Nixon is set to hold a news conference in Springfield at 2 p.m. while he signs an education bill.

For more on Nixon's cuts . . .

Tune in to KY3 News @ 5, 6 & 10

Montee Audit Questions Campaign Contributions to MHDC

"An Attitude Needs to be Adjusted"

A new state audit of Missouri's housing commission (MHDC) suggests that campaign contributions may be influencing where the state's development dollars go.

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

State Auditor Susan Montee is recommending that elected officials should not make decisions about housing projects submitted by individuals that they've received campaign contributions from.

"The perception is clearly out there that there is a system in place that encourages campaign contributions in return for projects. Whether that's the case or not, it certainly is a perception," said Montee at a press conference in Jefferson City Wednesday.

*WATCH MORE OF HER COMMENTS ABOVE*

Montee notes "questionable uses of public funds"
The audit covers between 2006 and 2008, when Governor Matt Blunt, Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder, Attorney General Jay Nixon and Treasurer Sarah Steelman were the four elected officials on the commission. The MHDC has four statewide officials and six other commissioners.

While Montee's audit noted that it was difficult to match "specific donations to developers," it concluded that the perception is that money influences how the projects are selected.

"Something we don't talk about here implicitly in the conflict of interest is whether or not there needs to be a total different way of dealing with the fact that developers are giving campaign contributions to commissioners," Montee said.

A major benefactor of tax credits from the Housing Commission has been former Springfield Mayor Tom Carlson and his former development partner Mark Gardner. The two have tapped into tens of thousands of dollars to revamp old buildings into apartment complexes around the city for low and moderate income people.

A review of campaign finance reports over the past four years shows that Carlson-Gardner entities have donated close to $15,000 to candidates who sit on the board. Other Springfield developers and citizens have privately expressed concern about a system that seems to favor the well-connected, but neither Carlson or Gardner responded to several requests for comment.
The MHDC said it was reviewing its standards of conduct related to that issue.

***ALSO: Other audit findings questioned housing commission expenditures, like $15,000 spent on alcohol for receptions and $18,000 to reimburse the executive director's legal fees. That's due to an ongoing FBI investigation.

Emerson, Blunt React to Sanford Saga

The Washington Examiner nabs comments from Reps. Emerson & Blunt on Gov. Mark Sanford's revelation he had an affair with a woman in Argentina.

Asked about the implications on the Republican party, Rep. Jo Ann Emerson said the GOP would have to wait for a leader to emerge.

"You would think out of the chaos would rise someone, but I don't know who it is going to be," said Emerson, who said she favored former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman before Obama tapped him to serve as ambassador to China.

The Examiner also wrote this biting line about Congressman Blunt: Rep. Roy Blunt, the former House Majority Leader who is now a GOP candidate for governor (nope U.S. Senate) in Missouri, is no stranger to scandal, having gone through an affair, a public divorce and remarriage under the scrutiny of the press. (The Examiner has since issued a correction, taking out the word "affair." See the above post.)

"This can be a distraction," Blunt said of the Ensign and Sanford scandals. "But I think the issues are big enough that they will quickly overcome the distraction."

McCaskill to Lead Impeachment Committee

Sen. Claire McCaskill will chair a committee charged with holding an impeachment trial for a federal judge.

The House of Representatives presented the Senate Wednesday with articles of impeachment for Judge Samuel Kent, a federal district judge in the Southern District of Texas, who has been accused of two counts of sexual misconduct and two counts of obstruction of justice.

McCaskill will be charged with leading a bipartisan 12-member committee that will investigate the evidence against Kent.

"It is not often that the Senate is called on to undertake the constitutional task of holding an impeachment trial of a federal judge. The Senate has a constitutional duty to provide due process and perform independent fact finding before voting on impeachment in every instance in which the House approves Articles of Impeachment. As Chair of the Impeachment Committee, I will work to ensure the process goes forward with no undue delay. I look forward to working with Senator Martinez and the other members of the committee to achieve that result," McCaskill said in a statement.

Kent has plead guilty to one count of obstruction of justice and is currently serving a 33-month prison sentence, but remains a federal judge until he either resigns or is impeached. In the meantime, he continues to receive an annual salary of $174,000 from the federal government, according to McCaskill's office.

A two-thirds Senate vote is needed to impeach a judge and strip him of his salary and pension.

Webster/Laclede County Electric Line Up Against Dem Energy Bill

Officials from Webster Electric Cooperative and Laclede Electric Cooperative tell The Marshfield Mail that Democratic legislation aimed at curbing greenhouse gases "will do nothing to fix a more imminent threat than pollution – the availability of electricity."

"Legislators aren’t calling it a tax, but that’s exactly what it is," said Byron Dudley, Laclede Electric Cooperative public relations manager.

"The thing is, the money is not going to go to solving the issue," said Webster Electric Cooperative manager Tom Houston, adding that customers could see rate increases between $20 and $50 dollars a month if the legislation passes.

Read the entire Marshfield Mail piece HERE.

PLUS: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leaders are racing to round up votes needed to pass a comprehensive energy and global warming bill.

Congressman Roy Blunt is quoted in the NYT article, saying the bill would raise energy prices "from Pittsburgh to Wyoming" because those parts of the country are most reliant on coal.

"Only liberals in this Congress would figure out a way not to use this," Blunt said about coal use in the bill.

Third Time a Charm for District #30 Dems?

HOEMAN CONSIDERS STATE SENATE BID

With former Greene County library director Annie Busch likely opting against a candidacy, Springfield Democrats may pin their hopes on school board member Michael Hoeman to run for the District #30 State Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Norma Champion next year.

Hoeman tells The Notebook he's seriously considering a campaign for State Senate, and is talking about the idea with family, friends and potential supporters.

Hoeman has frequently been mentioned as a possible candidate in Democratic circles, but this cycle, the stars may have aligned -- partly by default.

State Rep. Sara Lampe has told party leaders she's not interested in State Senate run. She's likely to run for re-election to the House in 2010 and then feel out possible statewide options. Democratic party insiders then turned to Annie Busch, who many viewed as an attractive candidate with significant name recognition.

Busch was seen as someone who could mount a competitive challenge to Republican front runner Bob Dixon, a House member from the 139th District. But now, Democrats believe Busch is likely opting against taking the plunge, partly on the recommendation of her husband.

That leaves Hoeman, a 7-year school board member who has been active in the Chamber of Commerce and the Greene County Medical Society.

"I'm certainly aware of the history of the politics of the area. I'm not so certain the 30th District is not winnable by a Democrat if you have the right Democrat running," Hoeman said in an interview.

He said that means a candidate who is "fairly conservative" on fiscal issues, but takes "strong stands on leadership." "I think in local elections, personalities become much more important than political labels," he said.

Hoeman is not close to announcing his candidacy. That may not happen until the fall, but in his discussion with local Democratic leaders, he said he has been told Busch has decided not to run.

"No one I've talked to in the Democratic Party has mentioned any other candidate," Hoeman said.

While Dems were obviously hoping for a female to take on Dixon, Hoeman's strength is that he's known well among a bunch of key groups in the area.

"I think I could attract a lot of crossover votes among people I've known, known for years. I think I could have pretty broad support in the community," Hoeman said. "I think Bob's done a fine job in the legislature. I just don't agree with all the votes he's made," he added.

Hoeman may be encouraged to sharpen his rhetoric against Dixon if/when the time comes.

But for Greene County Democrats, who seem to struggle to cultivate and attract competitive candidates, there's some hope that the third time is the charm.

Keller to Run Connecticut Senate Campaign

ONCE CONSIDERING STEELMAN, KELLER MOVES ON

A top Missouri GOP political consultant who was seriously considering running Sarah Steelman's potential U.S. Senate bid will instead head the campaign of one of the Republicans attempting to oust embattled Senator Chris Dodd in Connecticut.

St. Louis-based campaign strategist Gregg Keller is slated to become the campaign manager for Connecticut U.S. Senate candidate Tom Foley, The Notebook has learned through multiple sources.

Keller's move to run a campaign outside the Show-Me state offers more evidence to those who believe Steelman will ultimately not launch a U.S. Senate bid against GOP front runner Roy Blunt.

On the other hand, Sarah's husband David, has been public about his frustration with the power of political consultants within the Missouri GOP. And the Steelman's aren't likely to base their next move on a decision by a single consultant.

Keller, whose day-to-day organization skills are widely respected in Missouri political circles, was in close talks with the Steelman camp about coming on board to head her campaign. But in part because Steelman has not yet reached a decision on her 2010 intentions, Keller decided to move on and explore other options around the country.

A veteran of Jim Talent's 2002 and 2006 campaigns, Keller also managed Mitt Romney's 2008 grass-roots coalitions nationwide. In addition, he's vice president of Total Spectrum/Steve Gordon & Associates.

Keller recently signed on as a consultant to Sen. Gary Nodler's 7th District Congressional campaign. It's expected he'll maintain that role, but his focus will obviously be on Foley in Connecticut. That's left some southwest Missouri Republicans wondering who Nodler will hire to handle his day-to-day political operation when the crowded primary to replace Blunt heats up.

Foley, a wealthy businessman and former U.S. ambassador, is expected to battle former Congressman Rob Simmons for the chance to take on Dodd, who is already running television ads in his homestate. In the end, some Connecticut observers foresee a 4-way GOP primary.

Keller would not comment for this article.

McCaskill "Not Sure" If She Agrees With Feinstein's Vote Count

Appearing on MSNBC Tuesday, Sen. Claire McCaskill seemed to contradict California Sen. Dianne Feinstein's assessment that Senate Democrats don't yet have the votes to pass health care reform that includes a public option.

On CNN this weekend, Feinstein said, "I don't know that he has the votes right now," referring to President Obama. "I think there's a lot of concern in the Democratic caucus," she added.

"I'm not sure that I agree with Dianne that we don't have enough votes," McCaskill retorted on MSNBC. "It's just that we all haven't reached an agreement on what this is going to look like," she added.

Added that "compromises are going to be necessary," and that "single-payer" is not going to happen. Doesn't think a plan without any public option is going to happen either.

Talking Points Memo has the VIDEO HERE.

First Pitch President

President Obama will throw out the first pitch of the 2009 All-Star Game in St. Louis on July 14th.

According to a White House release, Obama will visit Michigan and Missouri on that day. The president will conduct a town hall meeting near Detroit and then travel to St. Louis to perform first pitch duties.

The White House said Major League Baseball's focus on community service during All-Star week is in conjunction with the president's call to service through the United We Serve program at www.serve.gov.

Missouri is also the only battleground state Obama lost in 2008.

Missouri Eagle Endorses Blunt, Slaps "Liberal" Media

The Missouri Eagle Forum, a conservative group affiliated with Phyllis Schlafly endorsed Roy Blunt for U.S. Senate Tuesday.

"Roy Blunt is the best candidate to fight for conservative causes in the United States Senate and he is the only candidate who can defeat the liberal Robin Carnahan. Missouri conservatives can trust Roy Blunt to take principled stands for our causes and provide the vision, solutions and leadership we need in Washington, D.C. Roy Blunt is 100 percent pro-life, believes marriage should be between one man and one woman, wants greater border security and has a record of fighting for lower taxes and smaller government," said Missouri Eagle Forum president Joan Langenberg.

Langenberg also took time to lambaste the media, who she charged were "already fawning" over Carnahan.

"Robin Carnahan's liberal special interests will be pouring millions of dollars into Missouri to air false attack ads against Roy Blunt. Meanwhile, the liberal media who is already fawning over Robin Carnahan will do everything they can to cover up her extreme liberal views by refusing to ask tough questions and making excuses for her failures as a candidate. It will be up to us to provide voters with the truth about Roy Blunt's conservative record and the truth about Robin Carnahan's support for abortion on demand, same-sex marriage and her blind allegiance to Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Barack Obama and their out of control, big government taxing, spending and borrowing," she said.

The release of the endorsement comes a day after former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft threw his support behind Blunt.

Supreme Court: More Executions Unlikely

ON HOLD

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (AP) - Executions effectively are on hold again in Missouri.

Incoming Chief Justice William Ray Price Jr. said Tuesday that it's unlikely the Supreme Court will schedule any additional executions while a federal stay is in place for the execution of Reginald Clemons.

The 8th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals put a hold on Clemons scheduled June 17 execution after his attorneys challenged Missouri's lethal injection procedures.

They are seeking further legal proceedings to ensure Missouri is using competent execution personnel.

Price says a federal decision in the Clemons case could apply to all Missouri inmates facing execution.

Missouri conducted no executions from October 2005 until this May because of a previous challenge to the state's lethal injection procedures.

"Wholehearted, Unreserved, Elation"

**WATCH ASHCROFT ENDORSE BLUNT*

TURNING POINT? JUNE HAS BEEN GOOD TO BLUNT

WATCH THE KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE

U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft's enthusiastic backing of Roy Blunt's campaign for U.S. Senate caps off several weeks of top-tier GOP endorsements for the Ozarks Congressman that are meant to solidify party unity and thwart the perception that Blunt isn't the best candidate to battle Democrat Robin Carnahan in 2010.

"I don't know of any person that I would have more ability to be confident -- that satisfaction would be guaranteed -- than my ability to call on Roy to serer to represent us as the Senator in the U.S. Senate," Ashcroft said at the Greene County Sheriff's Department in Springfield Monday afternoon.

Ashcroft's endorsement comes just two days after Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder and former Sen. Jim Talent threw their support behind Blunt in St. Louis. Eleven days ago Blunt won the backing of former Sen. Jack Danforth and U.S. ambassador Tom Schweich, who was contemplating his own campaign for U.S. Senate.

If April and May were turbulent periods for the Blunt campaign, June has served as a rebound.

Though predicting the political moves of Sarah Steelman is a foolish parlor game, Republicans now believe a Senate candidacy is less likely than ever before. And while the endorsements from establishment Republicans are not surprising, they have helped stem the tide of negative Blunt stories and toned down his critics.

These developments also highlight the behind-the-scenes political skills of Blunt to cash in on long-time alliances and cut deals in the clutch.

Despite the predictions, daily chatter and back and forth about a Blunt-Carnahan match-up, some of the smartest political observers believe that much of what happens now won't matter as much politically as President Obama's standing in the country come fall 2010.

Repeating what is probably his strongest argument for his election, Blunt noted Monday that the "balance of power" argument will be a very persuasive one for many Missourians.

But that debate won't be joined for months.

For now, an endorsement from a former Governor and U.S. Senator in "Ashcroftland" sends the signal to conservative Republicans that Blunt is not only an acceptable candidate -- but one necessary to unite behind this early in order to have a chance at beating back a Democratic super majority.

"We will have a stronger Senate. We will make better decisions in the United State of America with Roy Blunt in the U.S. Senate," Ashcroft said.

Transgender Potts Says She'll Run For U.S. Senate

Transgender political activist Midge Potts says she'll attempt to run for U.S. Senate under the Progressive Party banner.

Potts, who ran against Roy Blunt in the GOP 7th District primary in 2006, says she'll make an official announcement Thursday. The Progressive Party currently doesn't have ballot status, so she'll need 10,000 verified signatures

*WATCH THE KY3 NEWS STORY WE DID ON POTTS IN MARCH OF 2006*

Potts is co-chair of the state's Progressive Party, and will make her announcement in conjunction with the Proposition One Nuclear Disarmament Tour. The tour will make a presentation at 8 p.m. at the Magic Bean Coffee House on 940 South National in Springfield. Potts says her campaign announcement will come around 9 p.m.

A self-described fiscal conservative, Potts also said she'd also like to focus on paying of a significant portion of the "$10 trillion dollar debt."

"Other issues that will play an integral part of my platform include cancelling America's participation in NAFTA and the World Trade Organization, withdrawing all US troops from the Middle East, balancing the federal budget, abolishing the IRS, and making it legal for American farmers to grow hemp and marijuana. I will also be talking about not-for-profit healthcare as a defense issue that could save countless lives in the United States," Potts said.

VIDEO: Blunt Lays Out "Balance of Power" Argument

Congressman Roy Blunt argued that the threat of a Democratic supermajority in the United States Senate will draw independents and even some Democrats to his 2010 campaign.

Blunt, who never mentioned probable Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan in his remarks, devoted his time to criticizing Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid and President Obama.

He signaled that energy, healthcare and labor policy would be the battleground of ideas he plans to fight over.

*WATCH FULL CLIP ABOVE*

"Worth the effort"

Asked about the significance of endorsements, Blunt said that they send "the signal to the thousands and hundreds of thousands of Missourians who have supported these people that are helping me, that this is obviously worth commitment and effort.

"I think frankly that early message has so many more dividends than a message that comes a week before the election," Blunt said.

*WATCH FULL CLIP*

Rewind: Flashing Back to Ashcroft-Carnahan 2000

"We will never let the fire go out"

John Ashcroft's endorsement of Roy Blunt Monday got The Notebook thinking about the epic 2000 contest when Ashcroft lost his seat to the late Gov. Mel Carnahan.

In a photo finish contest, saturated with emotion and muddled with allegations of voter fraud in St. Louis, Ashcroft gracefully conceded the race to Carnahan's wife. Former Sen. Jean Carnahan can be seen in the above KY3 video footage, voting with daughter Robin Carnahan -- now the Democratic candidate for Missouri's other U.S. Senate seat.

*CHECK OUT A MONTAGE OF THE 2000 FLASHBACK*

The death of Carnahan in a plane crash prompted Ashcroft to postpone campaigning for several days, something he contended "obviously hurt the campaign." On election night, Carnahan spoke to a gathering of supporters by phone from Rolla, pledging: "We will never let the fire go out."

Defying calls by many in the GOP to fight the seating of Carnahan's wife, Ashcroft conceded the race.

"I will not initiate any legal challnege," Ashcroft said. "I hope the outcome of this election is a matter of comfort for Mrs. Carnahan."

ALSO: About :52 seconds in, we believe we spot a bit younger Carnahan spokesman Tony Wyche (in the lower right hand of the screen) finishing a media interview.

Emerson Part of Gossipy D.C. Dinner Club

Rep. Jo Ann Emerson is one of about 20 female House members who meet for dinner and gossip once a month at an upscale Capitol restaurant.

POLITICO has the dish.

"You like that pork chop," Emerson said to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-N.Y.) as they waited to cast votes the other day. "I always get the small filet with blue cheese melted on top and try not to eat the potatoes. And we always order a large plate of French fries," added McCarthy.

"They’ve gotten so used to us now, [the server] hardly ever gives us a menu," says Emerson. "It’s pretty loud. It’s funny."

Writes Lisa Lerer: "The dinner circle serves as a sort of informal support group for the women as they try to balance the often-competing demands of legislating, campaigning, raising children and simply having a life in a company town that almost always revolves around work."

And: when Rep. Ike Skelton's wife died in 2005, the women made an exception to their women-only rule and invited him.

Let The Eagle Soar

Former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft is expected to endorse Roy Blunt for U.S. Senate in Springfield Monday afternoon.

Their event will take place during the noon hour at the Greene County Sheriff's office. A Joplin stop is also planned.

Ashcroft's backing follows the endorsements of Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder and former Sen. Jim Talent -- both who threw their support behind Blunt in St. Louis on Saturday.

In 2000, the late Gov. Mel Carnahan still mustered enough votes to knock Ashcroft from his U.S. Senate seat. While some Missouri Republicans alleged voter fraud, Ashcroft emotionally and graciously conceded the race. That marked the first time in history someone had posthumously won election to the U.S. Senate.

Carnahan's daughter, Robin, is the only announced Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate and is Blunt's likely 2010 opponent.

Harris on Redistricting: "Seems Hard to Eliminate the 9th"

In a rebuttal to a Daily Kos post published recently about redistricting Missouri, GOP political consultant James Harris calls the liberal blog's map "unrealistic" and argues that eliminating the 9th Congressional district would be hard "for anything other than political reasons."

One Democrat on Daily Kos brainstormed a way to keep Rep. Ike Skelton's district blue, in preparations for the Armed Services Committee chair's retirement.

But Harris, who served as a political consultant for Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer's 2008 campaign, called that map "gerrymandered and unrealistic -- because it does not follow the criteria most states follow. Harris argues those includes 1) compactness of districts and making sure they are contiguous 2) creating districts with equal population 3) attempting to keep pre-existing municipal and county lines

"First, it contains an obviously gerrymandered 4th Congressional – a district drawn to politically advantage the Democrats. Drawing a district with the goal of protecting an incumbent or political party is not a recognized principal in redistricting. This map breaks several rural counties (violating one of the population-based criteria) and it is highly unlikely that the Republican General Assembly would draw such a map," said Harris. "Additionally, the proposed 6th Congressional is drawn into Franklin County, a collar county of St. Louis. There is no need to take away parts of the current district in Clay, Platte, and Buchanan and then shift the district across the state," he added.

"Since Republicans control both chambers of the General Assembly, a map that would be gerrymandered to help a Democratic incumbent is unlikely," Harris went on. "Democrats will be cautious about challenging any map that the Republican legislature passes, as the challenge would be heard before the 8th Circuit, one of the more conservative circuits in the nation.

"Finally, I would dispute the idea of eliminating the 9th Congressional if Missouri loses a seat, which might not happen due to population shifts in other states in recent years. In 2001, the two Congressional Districts with the most population growth were the 7th and the 9th, with roughly 70,000 to 75,000 more citizens. The three districts with the highest population loss were the 1st (107,000) and 3rd (26,000), both in St. Louis County, and the 5th (45,000) in Jackson County. Based on this, the more likely scenario is for the 2nd and 3rd districts to be merged and the 1st Congressional to increase in size to make up for population loss. The result would be two Congressional Districts in metro St. Louis with the 8th and 9th encompassing some of the collar counties. It seems hard to eliminate one of the fastest-growing districts, the 9th, for anything other than political reasons. Republicans have done well and picked up seats with fair districts. Democrats perform better with gerrymandered seats like the Daily Kos map," Harris said.

Week 23: Nixon's Grade

NIXON'S WEEK 23 GRADE: B -

Governor Nixon's backing of a $700 million dollar bond program for building projects comes around the same time he's expected to be close to making some considerable capital cuts out of the overloaded state budget. Though they both have questions, initial signs are that Speaker Ron Richard and Senate Leader Charlie Shields favor the general idea of building bonds, which would need statewide approved by voters. But Republicans are already preemptively ratcheting up the pressure over a potential cut to the Ellis Fischel Cancer Center in Columbia as well as other higher education projects. Sen. Kurt Schaefer thinks Nixon's call for a construction plan is a cynical move to soften the ax that's coming. Even Democratic lawmakers are unsure what Nixon will slice, which is causing some nervousness. (Do you get the sense Nixon doesn't even want to show his cards to allies in his own party?) The line-item veto is one of the most powerful acts a Governor has in his executive arsenal. The test for Nixon is how to minimize the political fallout from the lines in bills he decides to cross out. A longer-term question for the Governor is whether encouraging the state to borrow more money is the smartest strategy for Missouri's fiscal health.

Carnahan To Raise Money On Her Farm Saturday

Robin Carnahan is hosting a fundraiser for her U.S. Senate bid Saturday on the family farm in Rolla.

Carnahan will welcome supporters at an Ice Cream & Pie Social, according to the Rolla Daily News. The event runs from 2 to 4 p.m.

The Daily News notes that Rolla's Slice of Pie is providing the pie. The requested donations vary between $50 (friend-level) and $500 (sponsor-level.)

The second quarter campaign fundraising deadline is June 30th.

Emerson's Emissions Amendment Narrowly Fails

A House committee has rejected an amendment by Rep. Jo Ann Emerson that would have blocked the Environmental Protection Agency from measuring "indirect" emissions from land-use changes when calculating the carbon footprint of biofuels.

From the New York Times:

"Emerson and many other farm state lawmakers -- most notably Agriculture Chairman Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) -- oppose the way EPA is determining biofuels' emissions in draft rules to implement the national renewable fuels standard that was expanded in a 2007 law (E&ENews PM, June 17)."

Emerson's amendment would have prevented funds in the fiscal 2010 bill from being used to promulgate rules that measure indirect emissions from land-use changes as part of the overall calculation of biofuels emissions.

Emerson's amendment was brought up as part of a $10.6 billion dollar EPA appropriations bill that has been cleared by the House.

House appropriators approved a $10.6 billion spending bill for U.S. EPA last night, tucking in several amendments aimed at insulating