THE RACE CARD?
LATE NIGHT E-MAIL TO SUPPORTERS SEEKS MONEY FOR MORE MEDIA***
ALSO: MAKES THE CASE FOR THE GENERAL:
"I am often asked if I would support my opponent if he should win the primary. The answer I always give is that I don’t want Jay Nixon to be Governor. I know that on this, we agree. But I also know that the best way to keep Jay Nixon out of the Governor’s Mansion is for me to be his opponent come November. He can’t attack me for bad votes in Washington. He can’t tie me to poor congressional approval ratings. He can’t say I am out of touch with Missourians. It will be hard for him to attack me at all."
THE 72-HOUR SWING"They call Big Oil, Big Oil Said No, They Say No."
WITH NEWS THAT EXXON-MOBILE REPORTS RECORD 2ND QUARTER PROFITS, MISSOURI'S JUNIOR SENATOR TAKES TO THE SENATE FLOOR
Exxon Mobile Rakes In $11.7 Billion, The Biggest Quarterly Profit Ever
McCaskill accused Congressional Republicans of being "handcuffed to the demands of big oil." Calls for extension of tax credits for wind and solar . . . WATCH CLIPS of her FLOOR SPEECH ABOVE
THE CLOSING ADS PRE-PRIMARY IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR
THE HULSHOF CLOSER
My Take: Bringing us back to his roots is heart-warming. I mean, who doesn't love their dad? It's been Kenny's over-arching theme all along. "I came from small beginnings, but I didn't forget them. I'm a good guy, the Missouri dream. You can trust me." His line about "keeping your good name," is a subtle dig at Steelman. His message: I've stayed above the fray and kept my eye on the ball. You should reward me for that. The endorsements from newspapers is boilerplate politics, but if he's the nominee will he be touting these same papers if/when they back Jay Nixon? What will he say about the importance of endorsements then? He's making the argument that he's better experienced, more prepared, but critics will say he's lacked an overall message beyond that.
THE STEELMAN CLOSER
My Take: Steelman's closer is much like her last ad "Mom." She's basically repackaged it to highlight her maverick/outsider image. Nothing really new here. In fact, she uses some of the exact same lines word for word. Something must be telling them their themes are resonating. Steelman leads off with the Wall Street Journal column, which she hopes conservatives will recognize as a stamp of approval. She looks straight into the camera the entire time and she wants to convey that she's willing to shake up the system, especially on fiscal responsibility and spending. The Steelman ads have been slick and creative throughout the cycle, but this one is serious. No music. No gimmicks. No Orville and Ed. No Lobster. Can you tell it's gametime?
THE NIXON CLOSER
My take: Jay Nixon isn't running in the Republican primary, but you might be fooled by watching his latest ad. His first 30-second bio piece highlights Nixon's long career as Attorney General. The message. He's tough, he favors the death penalty. He knows what bothers you, he cracked down on telemarketers. He understands the economic squeeze, so he'll cut your taxes. Heck, he'll even cut government waste. Democrats will say this is who Jay is and has always been. But if you were new to the scene, you mighta thunk this ad was being run by a Republican.
4 QUESTIONS FOR BARACK OBAMA
Privileged as we were to receive the only one-on-one television interview with the presumptive Democratic nominee for President, the time went fast and furiously. They scheduled 3 minutes for us. Yep, 3. We eeked out a bit more. Now you can judge what both he and I did with it.
WHERE CAN HE WORK WITH THE G.O.P?
WHAT'S HIS POSITION ON MANDATING ETHANOL?
WHY RAISE TAXES ON THOSE MAKING $250,000?
IF IRAQ GOES BAD, WOULD HE SEND TROOPS BACK IN?
PLUS:MORE VIDEO
OBAMA MINGLES AT BELL'S RESTAURANT IN LEBANON
YOU CAN'T MISS 86-YEAR-OLD LILA MCGLOTHIN, SWEET AS SUGAR
AND: MCCASKILL TALKS UP OBAMA'S CHANCES IN THE OZARKS
WAIT THERE'S MORE . . . WATCH THE NEWS @ 6 PIECE
WATCH MY KY3 NEWS @ 10 REPORT HERE
My analysis: The establishment favorite, Kenny Hulshof has been knocked off his planned message by an aggressive candidate he might not have seen coming. While he tries to focus on the economy, he's still fending off attacks from Sarah Steelman while also attempting to re-define her. His strength is he eloquence and his ability to connect one-on-one. This race could be a case of The Message versus The Messenger?
WATCH HULSHOF RESPOND TO A QUESTION ABOUT HEALTHCARE IN OZARK BELOW, AND SPECIFICALLY HIS OPENNESS TO TWEAKING MEDICAID ELIGIBILITY
Watch his explanation of his Matricula Card Vote Above
Meanwhile, the campaign fires back on Steelman:
"Steelman accepted nearly $20,000 in political contributions from the very contractor she falsely claims to have forced off the job," says spokesperson Scott Baker.
FIND OUT WHO THE GREENE COUNTY CIRCUIT CLERK CANDIDATES FAVOR IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR
BTW: We noticed Peggy Kubicek donated $19 dollars to Kenny Hulshof's campaign during the 2nd fundraising quarter this year . . . Those darn reports will always git ya!
3 REPUBLICANS FACE OFF FOR GREENE COUNTY CIRCUIT CLERK
Peggy Kubicek vs. Brooke Hobbs vs. Steve Helms
In the first clip, the candidates detail the roll of the Circuit Clerk
(GOOD)
In the second clip, the candidates begin to lay out why experience matters and what voters should look for when deciding who to cast their ballot for.
(BETTER)
In the third and final clip, I nudge the candidates a bit more about their differences.
(BEST)
SO WHO WINS THIS THING?
BLUNT CONVENES PRIVATE MEETING WITH MEDICAL LOBBYISTS AFTER OPPOSING LEGISLATION TO BLOCK A PAY CUT FOR DOCS
Watch the KY3 News @ 10 report HEREIn the first clip, Steelman addresses why she's made a tough web ad (and possibly a spot that could hit T.V.) that takes aim at Hulshof's prosecutorial record in handling convicted rapist Vance Roy Clark.
In the second clip, Steelman answers criticism from the Hulshof campaign and some voters that her television advertisements have been too negative. Does it mean she's trailing?
In the third clip, Steelman explains why she pushed for a $133 million dollar provision to be included in a nursing home reform bill while she was a State Senator. Congressman Hulshof has criticized Steelman for the move -- saying it's an example showing she's been hypocritical on the issue of wasteful spending.
HULSHOF LOOKS TO DRAW BLOOD
In latest television blow-for-blow, the Hulshof campaign again goes after Steelman's connection to trial attorneys, and features falling dollars to highlight her campaign donations.
Flips her own words against her . . . "Politicians use our money to buy their power and influence" . . . with tough tagline . . . "Yep, she sure does."
Marks the 1st 100% Contrast/Negative Ad from the Hulshof Campaign
We're On The Bus With The Candidate, Tonight on KY3 News @ 10
8-DAY REPORTS DUE MONDAYBut Steelman Loans Herself $200,000, Bringing the Total in Loans to $770,000
The Conservative Columnist Disclosed His Condition TodayHouse Republican Whip Roy Blunt, of Missouri, said Novak's record of reporting and commenting on American elections "has never failed to demonstrate keen insight and a peerless political acumen."
"I want to join the many wishing Bob all the best as he confronts this challenge and a speedy recovery as he looks to resume his work," Blunt said in a statement.
DOES SIZE MATTER? STEELMAN TARGETS HULSHOF ON IMMIGRATION AND MATRICULA I.D. CARD
The ad follows the State Treasurer's question to the Congressman during the KY3 Debate last Wednesday
Watch Steelman ask Hulshof the question HERE
(Scroll down to Candidates question each other)
WATCH THE ZWEIFEL AD ABOVE
The Democrat is in a 4-way primary
(He's the only one on TV in Southwest Missouri)
Zweifel faces Andria Simckes, Charles Wheeler and Mark Powell on Aug. 5th
Republican Brad Lager is unopposed in his primary
THE ZWEIFEL CAMPAIGN RESPONDS TO THIS PREVIOUS G.O.P. STATEMENT:
"For the last four years, Missouri has had a state treasurer that failed to speak up when irresponsible financial decisions were made, like slashing health care and raiding MOHELA. The Republican establishment is clearly nervous about the possibility of Clint Zweifel bringing needed reforms to the State Treasurer’s Office," said Patrick Lynn, Zweifel’s campaign manager, in a statement to the KY3 Political Notebook.
AD WATCH: WHO'S ON SUNDAY NIGHT?
Harris Hits Ozarks TV with Ad During First Break of 5 p.m. News; Also Runs @ 10 p.m.
Cites Favorable Quote From Attorney General Jay Nixon; NIXON Responds:
"We have three strong candidates in the Democratic primary race for Attorney General," said Attorney General Jay Nixon "I am not endorsing any one candidate over the others. I have known Margaret Donnelly since 1988. During those 20 years she has been a champion for Missouri families. Missouri would be lucky to have Margaret Donnelly as its next Attorney General. Chris Koster has served the people of Missouri for many years and has a long record as a prosecutor. This experience would serve him well as Attorney General."
NO COMPLIMENTS FOR HARRIS INCLUDED
DEMOCRATIC TREASURER CANDIDATE CLINT ZWEIFEL ALSO HITS OZARKS TV FOR THE FIRST TIME @ 5:16 PM . . . THEN AGAIN AT 10:16 PM . . . Hits Gov. Matt Blunt in 30-second spot
STATE G.O.P. RESPONDS TO ZWEIFEL:
"Zweifel prefers the old way of cutting and withholding education funding from our students, schools, colleges and universities. Like Jay Nixon, Clint Zweifel does not want to fix anything, he wants to break state government by returning to the failed policies of the past," said Tina Hervey, G.O.P. communications director.
STEELMAN & HULSHOF ALSO UP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADS . . .
But are they NEW?
OBAMA HITS SOUTHWEST MO.BETTY ANNE MCCASKILL KICKS OFF SPRINGFIELD OFFICE OPENING
"There are a lot of good Republicans and there are a lot of good Independents who will vote with us . . ."
DOWN THE STRETCHThey are the men behind the curtain.
They determine message, how to spend money and when to spin "momentum."
Jeff Roe and John Hancock. Friends, but rival consultants in the high-stakes Republican primary for Governor.
Roe of Axiom Strategies is the uber-strategist behind Sarah Steelman's campaign. Hancock, a former statewide candidate for Secretary of State, also runs his own consulting shop, and serves as Kenny Hulshof's campaign manager.
They have different approaches, tactics and reputations. But their goal is virtually identical when they get a call from a reporter like me: make the case for why his candidate can win, but in the most convincing yet realistic way possible.
With just 10 days until the voting begins, here's what I learned in interviews with both.
JEFF ROE for Steelman
The much-heralded Jeff Roe covets and protects his data. He is a man of many facts and numbers. But during a stop on Steelman's RV tour in Bolivar this week, he seems eager to make his case. First, he dismisses he's orchestrating a negative campaign. "I've been in negative campaigns, this isn't. It's not personal, it's not vicious," he says.
The Steelman campaign makes the case that they are seeing the undecided voters break for them, and that will in turn, make this race close. The polling shows a backlash against ethanol and support for a repeal of the mandate, which Steelman has been stressing on the stump. "When you say ethanol support, it's medium. When you say mandate, you've just got a lot of Republicans who don't want to do that," Roe explains. "We're on emotion here."
He said this week's debate at KY3 foreshadowed the final stage of the race. "Are they going to go with the nursing home. Do they go hypo-thermo-nuclear negative against her? Because if they do, it could cost them the election," Roe says.
Roe believes the Hulshof camp may try to "muddy the water" on Steelman's earmark attack, but he believes it is too late to change the subject. The campaign has three television advertisements "sitting in the hopper," to pick from -- and only TheRealKenny.com offers some hints as to where they might end up going.
When asked about head-to-head polling, Roe holds his cards close. "It's a dead heat," he says. That's all he'll reveal. No specifics. They pay for those numbers, for God sake's. Why in heavens would they dish them to a reporter?
All Roe will say is that Steelman is not only winning the remaining undecideds, but taking "people from Hulshof." He also predicts that Southwest Missouri will end up breaking hard one way or the other.
The resounding feeling among the Steelman camp is that this will be close. But Roe doesn't like to talk on-the-record about much. The camp is excited but nervous. Then again, they say . . . so are their opponents.
JOHN HANCOCK for Hulshof
John Hancock seems like he's managing the frontrunner. He's eager to point out, "I've never seen them get above 30% in any poll. Period." Then, he goes into a whirlwind of positivity for Kenny. He's gaining momentum by the day. The internals have never looked better. Then, he levels the boom.
"I'm very confident in a victory, a pretty substantial victory."
Boom. Everything I heard from Roe is spinning in my head. Could the uber-strategist be wrong? Could Kenny still be up BIG? Really? This thing ain't close after all?
This is what happens when you talk to strategists. They're job is to be convincing and most do a good job of it. But then you have to step back a little bit . . .
What about all those undecideds?
"The reality is, Kenny Hulshof does even better on the ballot in terms of high intensity voters, the 10 out of 10s," Hancock says. "The ones who are going to show up."
Sure, but what about all that angst among Republicans? The bad brand. The P.O'd G.O.P?
"She's trying to tap into a dissent level that just does not exist in any kind of meaningful fashion. If the dissent existed, their campaign strategy would be brilliant," Hancock says.
But, c'mon. All these e-mails and calls from regular farmers pissed about ethanol. Steelman must have some type of momentum since she launched the bus tour in southwest Missouri? C'mon John, the bus tour was a good idea, right?
"Look, what do they have, a dozen people per stop? It may be 12 people. That's about it. Their maximum crowd has been, what 16,?" he asks.
I say I've heard that had 30 or 40 in Fordland.
"Well, I don't know that Kenny has every spoken to a crowd smaller than 70," Hancock replies. "There is painfully little evidence of a groundswell towards Steelman. They are making 5,000 calls, and 12 people show up."
Ok. Let's do polls. Again, no hard numbers.
One source of mine says he's heard Hulshof is up 5 to 10 points. Quite a range there, but when I ask Hancock about polling, he replies simply, "it's very good." Then, he lobs a shot at what they've been hinting to me. "Their polling data is the same as ours, based on the content of their TV," he says.
My last try is electability. Won't Sarah be stronger in general against Jay? I mean, all the Dems talking to me say they want Hulshof and that Washington record of his.
"Go look at the liberal blogs and see what candidate they are pillaring. They are going after Kenny Hulshof at a rate of 3 to 1. There's a reason for that," Hancock offers.
Then, Hancock offers the Kinder factor up as an argument. "Look, who's political future is most tied to who runs better against Jay Nixon. That was an unprecedented move for Peter to come out for Kenny. If Peter really thought this race was close, he'd stay neutral. Kinder's fate is tied to that ticket. If Jay Nixon wins, it's tough for any statewide Republican to win."
Based on that logic, and perusing the numbers right now, it looks like a bad year for Republicans.
So where's the Hulshof-Steelman race?
10 points. 5 points. 2 points.
Pick your poll, and your consultant.
SEN. MCCASKILL BACK ON SUNDAY TV
Kenny Hulshof's campaign for Governor is calling his two recent debate performances at KMOX and KY3 News "a clean sweep" over rival Sarah Steelman.
HULSHOF TO TOUT JOBS IN FINAL PUSHTHE LOBSTER SPEAKS
The Steelman campaign supporter trails Hulshof to events in order to highlight the Congressman's vote on an earmark for the Maine Lobster Institute
Hulshof's Scott Baker: “If Sarah Steelman believes grade school stunts like that will get Missourians to vote for her, then she has a lower opinion of Missourians than originally thought.”
Video courtesy of KY3 Photojournalist Taka Yokoyama
PLUS: BEHIND THE SCENES BODY LANGUAGE
(Video Taken Just Before & After The Debate)
(Updated @ 6:45 p.m.)
MANY PRO-HULSHOF E-MAILS FLOW IN . . .
"As an undecided voter leaning toward Jay Nixon, I approached last night's debate with interest. I walked away now planning to support Sarah Steelman. Throughout the entire debate, Hulshof never answered a question directly while Steelman generally seemed to answer as thoroughly as she had time to. While he is definitely a smooth speaker, she came across as being the one with the knowledge of how to get the job done in Jeff City. The pivotal moment in the debate for me was when Hulshof talked about how he was the only candidate running a positive campaign for governor. Is an ad with Steelman's face covered in mud positive Mr. Hulshof? If this man is the Republican nominee, I will be voting for Jay Nixon in November," writes Gary Cook of Monett.
"Great job last night with the debate. I liked the questions that you and the other panelists asked. I thought that they were well thought out and you guys didn't hold back. I liked that.I was very impressed with the content of the debate, and I feel that it showed that these candidates, although both Republicans, are worlds apart in the areas that are most important to me. I definitely think that Sarah Steelman won the debate. I was at the Republican Watch party at the Lamplighter Inn, and I know personally of 4 undecided voters that made up their minds after hearing the debate. Sarah is for the people and understands that our money is hard to come by, and that it is important to reign in spending and cut taxes. The ethanol issue I think also revealed a lot about the character of Hulshof who never did really answer the question about the legislation he supports as a politician supporting his corn farming business and his personal investments. That just is morally wrong, speaking from an ethical standpoint. I agree with Sarah that Mandates make things more expensive and government involvement in the markets is always bad for the taxpayers dollar. Also at the watch party, when there was applause for the opening and closing statements, Sarah's was much louder. I think it was a 60/40 or 70/30 split. Cant say for sure, but there was a definite difference. I can truly appreciate a candidate that acknowledges that we hire them, and that they are to represent all the people of Missouri, not just their personal interests," writes Charity Davis.
"A little feedback on the debate. A little awkward from the presenters, but. overall good. Steelman won," writes Greg from Springfield.
"I am generally in support of Sarah Steelman at this point in the governor race, but I have been perplexed by the number of people I respect who know Hulshof personally and support him for the position. I have tried to get their perspectives on him and reconcile this with the fact that, from the outside, he looks to me like exactly the kind of establishment, high-spending, politician that I do not want anywhere near the Governor's office. I am also bothered by Mrs. Steelman's campaign tactics. After talking to some more people and having some time to collect my thoughts, I have at least the beginnings of an answer. This is my current perspective and subject to change as I learn more about the candidates," writes Eric Vought of Springfield.
"It seemed to me that Hulshof beat around the bush and didn't answer any of the questions. Especially on the bill about the Matricula ID card/ He tried to play stupid, we know he is not stupid he voted for it. I felt that for him talking the talk about being for border security he doesn't walk the walk since he is willing to let Mexican Truck driver's openly and freely drive on American roads. He seems like he is more the flip flopper then he claims Sarah Steelman is.Then he pulled a democrat one liner "Big Oil doesn't like Ethanol" we are not Democrats!At least Sarah Steelman understands that our economy is hurting, I don't know what fantasy Hulshof is in. Knowing that I am struggling with a family of 6 trying to make ends meet, I know that my pocket book is not very full so I don't think many others are doing better. I can see the evidence in my own back pocket. If I have to go cut my car cut my house to downsize to be able to feed my family of course I am not going to believe that the economy is on the upturn and that the government should not cut too.I would not vote for someone that supports more taxes when I struggle to feed my family. It sounded like he would vote for more taxes for the roads of Missouri," writes Aaron Davis.
HULSHOF ARRIVES JUST AFTER 7 P.M., POSES WITH WIFE RENEE JUST BEFORE ENTERING MAKEUP
Steelman arrives at KY3 around 6:25 p.m. . . . Freedom of the RoadRiders Bikers escort the RV into the parking lot with a grand entrance . . . Steelman poses for a picture with her two sons . . . Hulshof has not arrived yet . . .
THE HULSHOF-STEELMAN DEBATE Schedule of Events
5:00 p.m. KY3 News @ 5 previews debate with look at latest ads/ Police Arrive
6:00 p.m. KY3 News @ 6 previews the debate and the race ahead/Food Arrives
6:15 p.m. Makeup Arrives
6:15-6:30 p.m. Sarah Steelman campaign expected to arrive
6:20-6:35 p.m. Panelist Makeup
6:30-7 p.m. Media Arrives
Approx 7 p.m. Kenny Hulshof campaign expected to arrive
6:45-7:00 p.m. Steelman makeup
7:00-7:15 p.m. Steelman mic check in studio
7:00-7:15 p.m. Hulshof makeup
7:15-7:30 p.m. Hulshof mic check in studio
7:45 p.m. Both candidates to studio/production crew in place
8:00 p.m. DEBATE BEGINS Live on KY3 . . . Streaming on News-Leader.com HERE
9:00-9:10 p.m. Hulshof holds media availability in KY3 front lobby
9:10-9:20 p.m. Steelman holds media availability in KY3 front lobby
10:00 p.m. KY3 News @ 10 reports on DEBATE highlights
10:30 p.m. and Later . . . Journalists file pieces, then mingle, gossip, bloviate . . . while candidate surrogates/supporters spin . . . maybe over a cocktail (s)? After parties . . .
***DEVELOPING . . .
