SHOCK & AWE

AN EPIC NIGHT

The New Comeback Kids

"It is simply unprecedented for so many polls . . .

to have been so wrong."

Don't Count Anyone Out

Hillary Clinton and John McCain pulled off two of the biggest comebacks in American political history Tuesday night, winning their party's New Hampshire primaries, and immediately transforming the 2008 presidential campaign into a 4-week state-by-state free-for-all, with no clear frontrunner on either side.

And oh yeah, we were wrong. Big time. Pundits and political smarty-pants' alike are cleaning the egg off of their face at this hour, while trying to figure out how late polls showing a Barack Obama blowout were so flawed.

Clinton defeated Obama by about 3 points, on the strength of registered Democrats and women over the age of 40. McCain's 5-point victory was propelled by independent voters, but it can't be lost that he edged out Mitt Romney among Republicans.

The Republican polls proved to be right. The Democratic polls and momentum meter proved to be dead wrong. Why? NBC's Chuck Todd pondered what people don't want to talk about: closeted racism. Todd compared the situation to other black candidates who polled very well election eve, but ended up losing the actual contest, when people vote privately behind a curtain. Todd said we really wouldn't know if this was the case until other states had their say. But something to think about . . .

"It is simply unprecedented for so many polls to have been so wrong. We need to know why," wrote ABC News polling director Gary Langer.

How about giving the Clinton camp some credit? The fiery ABC debate. The tears. New Hampshire thumbing its nose (or finger) at Iowa and the political media. Whatever it was, Clinton proved she remains a force to be reckoned with --- partly because the expectations were raised so high for Obama. (Thanks Washington press corps!)

"There's a lot of things you can say about (The Clintons) that are uncomplimentary . . . but politically they are something," said conservative pundit Bill Bennett.

Or maybe the voters were . . . .(drum roll) . . . persuaded? During a campaign! Cripes! "The polls had it wrong because the voters changed," CNN political analyst Gloria Borger said.

Speaking of expectations, Mitt Romney's campaign continues to amaze me. (Or not really.) He's lost both Iowa and New Hampshire. (We won the silver, We won the silver! . . . This ain't Salt Lake, Mitt.) The next G.O.P. contest is in Michigan, next Tuesday. Does Mitt need to win there? Naaaah, says spokesperson Kevin Madden. The strategy is clear: Romney doesn't need to win, anywhere. Or maybe I'm being too harsh. If New Hampshire proves anything, it proves not to rule anyone out. Maybe I'll even consider Fred Thompson a plausible G.O.P. nominee . . . (By Romney standards, he did win the bronze in Iowa.)

Back to the G.O.P., the path to John McCain's nomination is getting a bit more promising. NBC's David Gregory reported tonight that top G.O.P. officials were already imagining McCain's path to November. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported that the Clinton camp expects McCain to ultimately become the nominee. Still, the path is harrowing. He still has to go down to South Carolina, where he could have his heart broken again by a bass-playing Christian leader from Arkansas.

Mike Huckabee, by the way, is underestimated at the media's peril. His populist-conservatism melds well with his charismatic approach. He's a far better speaker than McCain, and more in line with the Evangelical base. Yet lack of foreign policy experience and electability will also weigh on the minds of G.O.P. regulars. On the other hand, many conservatives in Southwest Missouri loathe McCain -- and what he stands for. McCain-Huck will be something to watch.

Then there's Rudy. Waiting. Can't rule him out. He probably hopes Romney wins Michigan and McCain and Huckabee tie in South Carolina. He wants utter and complete chaos. The magic of this process is . . . it could happen.

Back to the Dems, where John Edwards' voters ultimately end up could tip the scales in the Hillary-Obama tussle. Edwards pledges to fight until the convention, but losses in Nevada and South Carolina will take the air out of his sails. It would appear his supporters would float to Obama --- but I've learned tonight that assumptions are just that.

That's all the primary excitement for this week. But next week, Michigan Republicans will have the next crack at it on Tuesday --- just as Matt Blunt delivers Missouri's State of the State address. Dems will go next in Nevada a week from Saturday. That same night, Republicans vote in all-important South Carolina.

Enjoy tonight? This looks to be quite a long ride, with even more lessons to come.

MCCAIN UPENDS ROMNEY

MAC IS BACK!

This came a bit early?

CONCORD, N.H. (AP) - John McCain has won the Republican primary in New Hampshire.

N.H. Turnout: "Absolutely Huge"

PUNDITS SEE ROMNEY BENEFIT

New Hampshire voters are trekking to the polls in balmy temperatures and record numbers today, and political analysts see the large turnout benefiting Barack Obama, and possibly Mitt Romney.

Romney seems to be getting large crowds in the final push, and pundits see independents and new voters largely breaking for Obama. That would hurt John McCain, who is counting on splitting Republicans and carrying the independent vote.

Romney aides are already whispering that their candidate needs to finish first (or a close second) tonight in order to have a good shot at winning Michigan. It's amazing how the expectations have changed.

A few weeks ago, Iowa was a must-win for Romney. Then, the political class retracted, saying he had another shot in his backyard of New Hampshire. Now suddenly, New Hampshire isn't even a must-win. He can go on to Michigan? Pretty sad when Romney's people are touting his Saturday G.O.P. caucus win in Wyoming.

Still, even if Romney loses tonight, watch for aides to tout his share of the Republican vote -- which he is expected to win.

It's becoming clear that no matter how many of these primaries any of the major candidates lose -- none on either side are going to leave the race quickly . . . or quietly.

Predictions?

Obama by 10

McCain by 2, Huck in 3rd

What's your spread?

Line of the Night

"If I win New Hampshire, it's because I did this show. If I lose New Hampshire, it's because I did this show."

---Mike Huckabee, appearing on The Late Show with David Letterman, on the eve of the New Hampshire primary.

An Omen?

MCCAIN, OBAMA WIN DIXVILLE NOTCH

The first voters of New Hampshire have spoken -- and they've chosen Barack Obama and John McCain.

Dixville Notch holds the longest continuous record of midnight voting. Tonight, the village gave 7 votes to Barack Obama and 4 votes to John McCain.

Both totals were enough to win the village.

Seventeen people voted in all.

The Storm Before The Storm

TWISTERS PUMMEL THE OZARKS

. . . AS NEW HAMPSHIRE GETS READY FOR HISTORY

As Southwest Missourians get hammered with a round of relentless tornadoes, the people of New Hampshire are beginning to vote in the nation's first primary.

As tradition, voting in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire begins at midnight.

If the polls are correct (they were basically right in Iowa), Barack Obama will defeat Hillary Clinton Tuesday -- possibly by double-digits. Maybe that's why Hillary Clinton cried today. Or maybe, just maybe, she's human like the rest of us. Either way, it looks like Tuesday will deliver an aftershock to the initial political earthquake just 5 days before.

On the Republican side, poll after poll shows John McCain narrowly ahead of favorite neighboring son Mitt Romney. But observers see Romney gaining momentum in the final 24 hours, winning over coveted independent voters that McCain is counting on. The more Republican this primary is, the better it is for Romney. McCain is hoping to split the G.O.P. vote, and win independents, sending him towards one of the greatest political comebacks in history. Romney won't go quietly, but a loss Tuesday will mean one foot in the grave.

The year is just 7 days old, and it's already been politically fascinating. The first credible female candidate is on the ropes to an African-American superstar, being compared to the likes of Martin Luther King Jr. and Bobby Kennedy. Who would have thought that the longer, more interesting race could be the Republican one? And after the dust settles on these amazing primaries, how will the general election live up to the hype?

Here's to hoping you and yours are safe from the storms tonight . . .

What They Want From You

While their attention is laser-focused on the early primary states, the major presidential candidates continue to make appeals to supporters back in Missouri for various types of help.

Rudy Giuliani's campaign is asking Missourians to vote early. Mitt Romney needs your help making phone calls. Others are just appealing for cash to bolster their campaign.

In an e-mail to supporters this weekend, Giuliani urged Missourians to vote absentee in anticipation of the February 5th primary here. "If you qualify for absentee voting you can cast your vote for President now. Tens of thousands of Missourians will cast their ballot for their party's nominee for President long before the polls open. In Missouri absentee voting began on December 26th," wrote Tyler O'Conner, Giuliani's Regional Political Director. The e-mail includes a direct link to the Secretary of State's office.

Mitt Romney's campaign is asking Missourians to pick up the phone for him. The campaign is asking supporters to e-mail the Romney campaign at CallAtHome@MittRomney.com to participate in a nationwide phone bank to turn out New Hampshire voters Tuesday. The goal is 5,000 callers per "Team Mitt." Calls will take place Monday from 2-8 p.m.

Barack Obama has scheduled New Hampshire watch parties in Kansas City and St. Louis, but none in southwest Missouri. John Edwards and John McCain sent e-mails asking supporters to contribute money to their campaigns so they can compete beyond New Hampshire.

Romney: The Focus-Group Candidate

FINAL N.H DEBATE

ROMNEY WINS FOX FOCUS GROUP

Facing a must win in New Hampshire Tuesday, Mitt Romney turned in a solid debate performance two days before the primary, winning a focus-group of undecided voters.

The final FOX debate again featured the major G.O.P. contenders taking aim at Mitt Romney, but focus-group pollster Frank Luntz said the former Massachusetts Governor "hit a home run tonight." Romney is trailing John McCain in the most recent polling data.

Insta-dial focus groups have always seemed a bit odd to me. Can you imagine turning a dial on every second of a candidate's response? And are these people really "undecided" or just looking to get on TV? In any event, Romney overwhelmingly scored well with "undecided" voters in a post-debate FOX focus group. Then again, cynics might say that Romney is the ultimate poll-tested, focus-grouped candidate.

"This was a terrific debate for Mitt Romney," said Fred Barnes of The Weekly Standard, citing his answer on immigration.

NBC Political Director Chuck Todd said the debate framed the Republican race as one of change vs. experience. He puts Romney and Huckabee on the side of change, with McCain, Giuliani and Thompson on the side of experience. As far as the Romney vs. McCain match-up, Todd called it a draw.

Time's Mark Halperin called the debate for Romney, grading him an A-. "Admirably recovered from Saturday's disastrous debate," commented Halperin.

Huckabee seemed a bit defensive during this debate. He wouldn't directly answer Romney's challenge on raising taxes in Arkansas, and looked off-balance and caught off guard. Maybe it's because he didn't have an audience to play to? Still, Huckabee doesn't need a win here. Third would be just fine.

Erick, at RedState scored the win for . . . ABC News and Charlie Gibson. "Theirs was the best debate --- bar none," he said. On the substance, Erick gave the nod to Romney as well. "Mitt seemed even paced all night," Erick wrote.

New CNN/WMUR Tracking Poll

BIG OBAMA SURGE,
LIL' HUCK MO'

***New CNN/WMUR tracking poll . . .breaking at 5 pm CT . . .

N.H. DEMS
Barack Obama 39% (+6)
Hillary Clinton 29% (-4)
John Edwards 16% (-4)

Shows an Obama surge, taking points from both Hillary and John Edwards

N.H. GOP
John McCain 32% (-1)
Mitt Romney 26% (-1)
Mike Huckabee 14% (+3)
Rudy Giuliani 11% (-3)

No big changes here -- McCain and Romney are stable, but it appears Huckabee is showing some possible gains, running third over Rudy Giuliani.

Both polls were taken Saturday and Sunday and have a 5 point margin of error.

BTW- Major props to CNN for its blanket coverage of the presidential race all weekend long. MSNBC decided to run reruns of documentaries with the creepy Chris Hansen. (!?)

Let's Get Ahead Of Ourselves

OBAMA V?S. MCCAIN

Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire primary Tuesday, thereby convincing African American voters he's a plausible nominee, which bolsters him in the South Carolina primary and on his way to the Democratic nomination.

John McCain upends Mitt Romney in his neighboring state of New Hampshire, then goes on to Michigan to edge out Romney again. South Carolina sets up a southern showdown between McCain and Mike Huckabee. Looking at Obama on the other side, and citing electability, southern voters decide to go with McCain, which propels him to the Republican nomination.

Those are two possible election scenarios laid out by Democratic strategist Steve McMahon and Republican strategist Mike Murphy on Meet The Press this morning.

But that's getting ahead of ourselves . . . A slew of new New Hampshire polls out today continue to show no bounce for Huckabee, growing support for McCain and momentum for Obama.

MSNBC/McClathy: McCain 32%, Romney 24%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 10%
Obama 33%, Clinton 31%, Edwards 17%

Rasmussen: McCain 32%, Romney 30%, Paul 11%, Huckabee 11%
Obama 39%, Clinton 27%, Edwards 18%

Reuters/Zogby: Romney 32%, McCain 31%, Huckabee 12%
Clinton 31%, Obama 30%, Edwards 20%

Two polls show McCain/Obama with the edge; one narrowly favors Romney/Clinton.

NO BOUNCE FOR HUCK
It looks like Mike Huckabee's best chance in New Hampshire will be a third place finish. He hasn't moved in any of the New Hampshire polls since his Iowa win. He did nothing in last night's debate to stand out. And this morning on This Week, Huckabee seemed to get caught in a contradiction over his support for the surge. George Stephanopoulos played a clip in Jan. 2007 showing Huckabee saying he was "not sure" if supported the troop surge in Iraq if the surge has to come from Guard and Reserve troops.

"I've said many times I've supported the surge," Huckabee replied. "My concern is this, we have a very delicate situation developing with our Guard and Reserve troops."

"They were needed for the surge, and what we really need to be doing is building up the regular Army," he added.

Huckabee refused to retract his statement that he supported the surge before Romney, but seemed caught up in a sticky gaffe. "It's clear that I supported it before he did," said Romney later. (Also later, Romney couldn't decide whether he wanted to call McCain's plan amnesty or not.)

"Look I have some verbal gaffes, I think most of us do," Huckabee said.

After consistent grilling from Stephanopoulos, Huckabee also finally acknowledged he thought Congress was right to intervene in the Terri Schiavo case in Florida. "Anything to do to help save a human life, and at least show the importance imperative of valuing life, I think is a good thing," Huckabee said.

On his path to the nomination, Huckabee said a third place finish in New Hampshire would beat expectations. He predicted he would win South Carolina. "I think we'll win in Florida," Huckabee added.

2-on-1

IT'S EDWARDS & OBAMA VS. HILLARY
BUT HIL' SHOWS STEEL

Leveraging the argument of "change," John Edwards aligned himself with Barack Obama Saturday night to take on an embattled Hillary Clinton, who visibly fought back by touting changes she has helped make through experience.

Barack Obama seemed to do what he had to do tonight -- not make a fatal mistake. Still, Clinton made sharp arguments directed at Obama about why hope, passion and charisma would not be enough to produce substantial change.

Hillary's best moment was a reply to a question about her "likability" problem: "Well, that hurts my feelings."

Edwards clearly made the decision to go after Clinton tonight, saying "Every time he speaks out for change, every time I speak out for change, the forces of status quo are going to attack."

Edwards seems to think he has a better chance at beating Obama one-on-one than Clinton. That strategy perplexes me. If he holds the same argument of change, how does he ultimately distinguish himself from Obama if and when that time comes.

One final point: The vigor with which Clinton showed tonight means -- even if she loses New Hampshire on Tuesday, she certainly won't bow out of this race quietly. Hillary looks ready to fight Obama to the bitter end.

PILE ON

RIVALS HAMMER ROMNEY IN DEBATE
"You are certainly the candidate of change."

Most of the major Republican candidates for president turned their fire on Mitt Romney Saturday night in a high-stakes ABC/WMUR debate just three days before the nation's first primary in New Hampshire.

Romney took shots from Mike Huckabee and John McCain, as well as Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani.

Both Huckabee and McCain made references to Romney's changes on a host of issues, with sly comments that took aim at the character of the former Massachusetts Governor.

McCain scored the line of the night in quick response to Romney's talk of change. "You are certainly the candidate of change," McCain said, with a smile.

When Romney told Huckabee not to characterize his positions, Huckabee replied, "Which one?"

One thing seems clear: Nobody on the stage likes Mitt Romney. At times, they seemed to gang up on him, lobbing some cheap shots. Knowing that New Hampshire is a must-win for Romney, they all seem to want him out of the race. Does Romney hit back hard tomorrow, knowing that negative didn't work in Iowa . . . or does he take the high road?

Got Bounce?

***NEW CNN NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL***

OBAMA-CLINTON DEAD EVEN
HUCK IA WIN HELPS MCCAIN

The freshest poll taken since the Iowa Caucuses shows boosts for Barack Obama and John McCain.

A new CNN/WMUR poll taken Friday and Saturday shows Obama and Hillary Clinton now dead even.

N.H. DEMS
Hillary Clinton 33%
Barack Obama 33%
John Edwards 20%

(Margin of error 5 points)

N.H. GOP
John McCain 33%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Mike Huckabee 11%

(Margin of error 5 points)

The survey shows that Obama is now considered more electable by New Hampshire voters. It did not give Huckabee much of a bump. His bump appears to have gone to John McCain. But considering the margin of error and because this poll was only taken over 2 days, the McCain-Romney fight has to be considered very close.

3 Days To New Hampshire

N.H. POLL SHOWS OBAMA BOUNCE

Bet you didn't know Wyoming was holding its G.O.P. presidential caucus today.

Even though all the candidates are in New Hampshire, "The Cowboy State" will award delegates today. Having been the only candidate who spent any money there, Mitt Romney should win the prize.

Here's what else you need to know today:

• ABC News will hold a pair of must-watch debates tonight. The Republicans go first at 6 p.m., followed by the Democrats at 7:30 p.m. With just 4 candidates left on the Democratic side, the format should offer ample time for Hillary to raise some direct questions about Obama's candidacy. Remember: Besides her stumble in Philly, Hil's debate performances have been stellar. On the Republican side, all eyes will be on McCain-Romney. It seems like a Romney loss in N.H. would benefit McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani . . . so will Mitt be fending off 3-way fire. Will anyone even pay attention to Huck in a state where he's running 4th?
• DRUDGE highlights a flash poll this morning by Rasmussen Reports showing Obama now leading Clinton in New Hampshire by 10 points, 37%-27%. John Edwards is at 19%.
• If you read one thing today, it should be THIS column by David Brooks of the New York Times. Here's a conservative who's inspired by both Obama and Huckabee's candidacies, but believes Obama has the real shot at going the distance.
• At a press conference Friday, Gov. Matt Blunt shook off Mitt Romney's loss in Iowa, saying he's a national candidate who will be able to move forward. Meanwhile, Sen. Claire McCaskill (who hasn't endorsed but seems to want to) is giving advice to Obama's campaign here in Missouri, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
  

Romney Sits on Double-Digit N.H. Lead

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is sitting on a comfortable double-digit lead in the nation's first primary state, according to a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters.

Still, the poll of New Hampshire Republicans also indicates the field remains fluid.

N.H. G.O.P.
Mitt Romney 33%
Rudy Giuliani 18%
Fred Thompson 13%
John McCain 12%

The poll also indicates 71% of the 307 Republicans surveyed are still trying to decide who to vote for. The poll was taken between July 9th and July 17th.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton maintains an edge over Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson has now eclipsed John Edwards.

N.H. DEMS
Hillary Clinton 36%
Barack Obama 27%
Bill Richardson 11%
John Edwards 9%

The poll spoke to 333 likely Democratic primary voters.