NUMBERS THAT BARELY MATTER
The first public poll out of the gate since Sen. Kit Bond announced he wouldn't run for re-election in 2010 shows the race will still remain tight.
With the dust not even settled from Bond's announcement, the 2010 U.S. Senate race numbers will only mean something to the true insiders this early on. But of all those involved, Rep. Roy Blunt seems to get the best hand of the early cards that have been dealt.
THE HEAD-TO-HEADS:
ROBIN CARNAHAN 45%, ROY BLUNT 44%
ROBIN CARNAHAN 47%, JIM TALENT 43%
ROBIN CARNAHAN 47%, SARAH STEELMAN 36%
BLUNT'S PROBLEM: He has higher negative ratings than positive ones, 40%-43%.
The first public poll out of the gate since Sen. Kit Bond announced he wouldn't run for re-election in 2010 shows the race will still remain tight.
With the dust not even settled from Bond's announcement, the 2010 U.S. Senate race numbers will only mean something to the true insiders this early on. But of all those involved, Rep. Roy Blunt seems to get the best hand of the early cards that have been dealt.
THE HEAD-TO-HEADS:
ROBIN CARNAHAN 45%, ROY BLUNT 44%
ROBIN CARNAHAN 47%, JIM TALENT 43%
ROBIN CARNAHAN 47%, SARAH STEELMAN 36%
BLUNT'S PROBLEM: He has higher negative ratings than positive ones, 40%-43%.
The National Review notes: "He holds her to a dead heat, which isn’t bad when you consider that she was just elected statewide and that we’re in a moment of Democratic euphoria. He has the strongest fundraising potential and organizational base of any of the candidates, and he has a geographic advantage too."
BUT Human Events counters: "After his son's rocky single term as governor was capped off by an abrupt decision not to seek reelection, the Blunt name is suffering a bit. The association among the GOP base of Rep. Blunt with congressional Republican failures over the past decade will also hurt the former majority whip in his efforts to build a campaign."
STEELMAN'S PROBLEM: Despite just coming off a statewide campaign, she remains the least known.
The polling also shows that some Southwest Missouri Democrats will support Blunt over Carnahan.
867 voters polled on Jan. 10-11th; 3.3% Margin of Error
The polling also shows that some Southwest Missouri Democrats will support Blunt over Carnahan.
867 voters polled on Jan. 10-11th; 3.3% Margin of Error
***THE RADAR RANKINGS***
(Based on reportage, dynamics and pure buzz)
BLUNT: Almost Definitely Running
TALENT: Certainly Wants To, Unclear If He Has The Stomach For A Blunt Battle
STEELMAN: Will Be Very Tempted To Run, But May Decide It's Too Tough A Climb
KINDER: Likely Will Defer To a 2012 Match-Up With Nixon
Carnahan's already running; Rep. Lacy Clay just likely wants his name mentioned in print, but isn't a serious contender. Betting against the unpredictable, insiders believe Robin's got a primary pass.
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