The Politico reports Fred Thompson will jump into the 2008 Presidential Race in July.(Finally! We can get on with our lives!)
Here's the conventional wisdom on how it will hurt Rudy McRomney.
Then there's also the argument that Thompson's entry actually helps Giuliani. The more social conservatives in the race to splinter that group of voters helps the moderate.
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Crawford makes some interesting points. The main thrust of his argument boils down to vote dilution. He uses the example of the 2000 Iowa results. In his comparison though, Rudy is George W. Bush who didn't have the potential problems with the conservative base as Rudy does. Still, I buy the dilution argument. The pie is only so big; unless Thompson energizes GOPers who just aren't commiting to a candidate in polls conducted, Thompson will draw support away from existing candidates. The argument could be that he'll effectively "crush" the "second tier" of candidates; Hunter, Huckabee, Brownback, Gilmore, et. al. taking away their support like taking away oxygen smothers a flame. Then you have to look toward the "Big 3" and who does Thompson hurt/help.
An argument can be made that he hurts them all, for different reasons. Thompson hurts Rudy due to the fact that conservatives who were ready to give Rudy a pass on the abortion issue could see Thompson as everything they now see in Rudy, only without compromising their social conservatism. Thompson hurts McCain in that the possible number of voters who flocked to him by virtue of his straight-talking ways now have someone who talks as straight (and more articulate) than McCain. Thompson also hurts McCain due to the fact that there may be a percentage of voters out there who believed that either Rudy or McCain were the only ones who could beat Hillary and they weren't ready to give up their doubts about Rudy's stands on social issues so in that sense McCain was a viable alternative. Thompson clearly presents a challenge to Romney, as Romney has been running as "the conservative" in the top tier. Romney's candidacy tacitly argues that there is something fatally wrong with Rudy and McCain, and although there may be other conservatives in the race, he's the only one with the combination of money and message that can challenge them.
Finally, Thompson hurts Newt because Newt has been positioning himself as ready to ride in on a white horse after the whole field was vetted and found wanting. Now Newt can't say that there isn't a conservative voice in the race. But will that change his calculus? Probably not.
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