IOWA DEMS
Hillary Clinton 31%
John Edwards 25%
Barack Obama 11%
IOWA G.O.P.
John McCain 25%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Mitt Romney 16%
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEMS
Hillary Clinton 34%
John Edwards 18%
Barack Obama 15%
NEW HAMPSHIRE G.O.P.
John McCain 30%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rudy Giuliani 21%
SOUTH CAROLINA DEMS
Hillary Clinton 34%
John Edwards 30%
Barack Obama 18%
SOUTH CAROLINA G.O.P.
John McCain 32%
Rudy Giuliani 23%
Fred Thompson 13%
Mitt Romney 10%
Point 1 . . . Obama doesn't look very good in the ARG poll, slipping to third in every state.
Point 2 . . . Iowa looks to be the most competitive race on both sides of the aisle.
Point 3 . . . Fred Thompson polls ahead of Mitt Romney in South Carolina, without even having formally announced, but can Thompson afford to sit out Iowa and New Hampshire?
1 comment:
I've heard of ARG, but they appear to be a second-tier pollster. One question: why didn't this poll include the size of the sample for each state? Just curious.
As to the merits of the poll, it is interesting that Obama has slipped in each state, even in New Hampshire, a state he's spent a lot of time in. What is this indicative of? The law of "what goes up must come down"? Did he rise so high so quickly that there was no logical place for him to go but down? The conventional wisdom is that he has become more gaffe-prone in recent weeks. Edwards appears to have benefitted from Obama's fade. And is Hillary enevitable at this point?
On my side of the aisle, McCain's strength in this poll surprises me frankly. Are some early primary voters not so cozy with Rudy at this point? Is this evidence of strong performances in the two debates by McCain? Or is anybody watching?
As far as my candidate Mitt Romney goes, people in these states are still in the process of getting to know who he is. There was a recent poll which placed Romney up by 12% in Iowa. But it is still early and there will be new candidates (Fred Thompson, Newt) on the GOP side and who knows what Gore will do on the Democratic side. As Dave would say, "stay tuned."
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