Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report, who has been gracious enough to interview with me two times over the past year on Missouri's hot U.S. Senate race, offers this analysis on MSNBC:
"As in 2002, both candidates are well known, neither has significant negatives, and turnout will be the key to victory. Democrats hope that state ballot initiatives on stem-cell research and raising the minimum wage will draw their voters to the polls and put McCaskill over the top. McCaskill attributes her failure to win the governorship in 2004 -- she drew 48 percent of the vote -- to spending too little time in rural areas. She is campaigning vigorously there now. Refighting the last war can be a risky strategy, but if this race ends up close, attracting a bigger share of the rural vote could put McCaskill over the top."
"Talent is running on his Senate record while working to portray McCaskill as a liberal campaigning as a moderate. This is one Senate contest in which both the Democratic and the Republican national parties have made a significant investment. It is also one where the GOP's vaunted 72-hour get-out-the-vote program has been very successful in the past. While its effectiveness depends on an energized GOP base -- and signs abound that the base is demoralized -- Republicans argue that the stem-cell research initiative is motivating conservatives to vote. They also question whether a vote in favor of stem-cell research is an automatic vote against Talent."
"This race is firmly in the toss-up column and it will be a key measure of the strength of the Democratic wave. Talent has no significant liabilities, apart from having to defend his party and the Bush administration. Yet a sizable wave could well sweep him out of office."
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