The Wall Street Journal has a great piece on the reliability of polls just 10 days from an election.
The conventional wisdom is that Nov. 7th will be a win for Democrats. But remember 2004 when President Bush was buried by the punditry? It's a valuable lesson for politicos. This story is a great read, and should be a sobering one for Democrats before they pop their champagne corks.
Keep these bullet points in mind:
*Up to a quarter of voters don't decide whom they'll vote for until the week before an election, according to Republican pollster Bill McInturff. As many as 8% don't decide until Election Day.
*Most polls depend on land-line phones, but one in 10 adults now has only a cellular telephone. That poses a potential sampling problem.
*What might change in the final days? A lot. A key factor is voter turnout, which is hard to predict.
2 comments:
The polls have been wrong for the last three cycles and really bombed in 94. Remember the disaster the exit polls had in 00? If you are truely an undecided voter(like me) and tell that to the pollsters they will keep calling until they get a committment. I have quit answering the phone unless I can identify the caller.
Pollsters in some states only list the Republicans and Democrats. But wait, it gets worse...
In Texas, in Tom DeLay's district, the pollsters have been calling people and asking people if they'd vote for the Democrat, or a Republican who is a WRITE-IN candidate. The pollsters, when challenged, wouldn't acknowledge the Libertarian as even being on the ticket, and would not accept that as an answer.
Dishonest polling, in my opinion.
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