Saturday, October 28, 2006

Sunday NYT: It's All About Turnout in Missouri, But Some Say Stop Calling

The New York Times reports in its Sunday edition that both Republican and Democratic strategists believe the battle to control Congress will come down to 20 House and 3 Senate races.

The story, obtained via The Drudge Report, has a byline of Vinita Park, Mo. It notes that Democrats are working hard to match the legendary Republican get-out-the-vote machine, in places like Missouri.

To prove that we all make errors, the article mistakenly reports that Talent was elected in 2000. But hey, it happens.

But it also includes a quote from a volunteer making calls for Democrat Claire McCaskill, that shows some voters may be experiencing campaign overload.

The following are the graphs pertaining to Missouri:

"These other groups are calling: stem cell research, labor unions,” said Charlene Zeni Connolly, 57, a retired teacher who was making calls near here the other night on behalf of Claire McCaskill, the Democratic Senate candidate. “People are getting really irritated. They are saying if you call again, I won’t vote for her.”

For all that, evidence of new-found Democratic attention to getting out the vote, an area of politics where the party once dominated, was on display here and in other parts of the country this week as turnout operations, many in the making for nearly two years, began to unfold their final 10-day plans.

For two cold and rainy hours the other night, Brendan Fahey, 27, a two-time Iraq war veteran, led a team of three Democratic workers on a door-knocking mission through a trim, middle-class neighborhood of two-family brick homes in this city northwest of St. Louis. They careened from house to house — holding street maps and a computer-generated list of likely supporters gleaned from two years of market research, telephone calls and earlier visits — as they executed the final stages of a plan began when Democratic Party strategists opened offices here 15 months ago.


Through it all, Republicans have shown no sign of backing off, matching Democrats door for door and telephone for telephone. “Do you want a lawn sign?” Tom Applewhite, 20, a St. Louis University student working for Mr. Talent, asked a woman who answered a door near here after she promised that she would indeed vote for Mr. Talent.

Mr. Applewhite, who had guided a squad of Republican volunteers for a relatively early afternoon tour to avoid the misstep of upsetting St. Louis Cardinals fans by banging on the door in the middle of the World Series games, went to his red Chevrolet pickup and returned with a “Talent for Senate” sign.

Democrats, who have dutifully studied Republican successes in 2002 and 2004, have used consumer, demographic and polling data to predict the political leanings of infrequent voters. Here in Missouri, for example, canvassers are more likely to talk to single women about health care.

Because of Mr. Talent’s narrow victory last time, Republicans and Democrats landed here hard and early this campaign, and both sides think that is what will make the difference in a race that could well determine which party controls the Senate next year.

“They are proud of their turnout operation,” Ms. McCaskill said. “They think they have a machine-like operation in the Republican Party. They are just pouring money into it.”


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