GOP Insiders Survey -- What To Watch For Primary Day

This coming Tuesday in Greene County, most of the action will be on the Republican side. Three local G.O.P. lawmakers face challengers, and two seats are wide open. The conventional wisdom is that the pressure to perform will be on Republicans this primary day, and then that pressure will shift to the Democrats come November.

So with just six days until the primary, I began calling G.O.P. party insiders about what to watch for. Some agreed to go on record, others would only speak to me without attribution. Here's what they're saying . . .

#134: Viebrock vs. Collins vs. Bilyeu
"That's been such a mess," says Thelma Neff, who serves on the state Republican committee. "They've been so nasty out there. I don't think Jim Viebrock should be vulnerable, but he is. I think Jim has done a good job but hasn't bragged about himself. Did you know he showed up in Battlefield to help people the day after the tornado? Did you know he spends part of every week reading to elementary school children,?" Neff says.

"I'm just very disappointed with Jim Collins because he is talking about what Viebrock has done rather than what he is going to do," Neff says.

Another Springfield Republican says, "The mayor doesn't seem to be well liked in his own backyard and that's a problem. If there's a problem with Viebrock, it seems that Bilyeu stands to gain from that, especially from Springfield voters."

"Viebrock will probably win, but he still has to be considered the most vulnerable," another G.O.P. insider adds.

"Viebrock will win, but it will be close," says one Republican businessman.

#135: Denison vs. Dunn
"It will be interesting to see if the broo-ha-ha is anything, or just involves the insiders," says one Springfield Republican. "Charlie has worked very hard as a legislator, that's being lost in all of this. If there is any event going on, you can bet Charlie will be the one representative there. Now, I don't know about substance. Charlie does have foot-in-mouth problems sometimes, and it's not like he hasn't lost a race before, but with groups one-on-one, he's been there and that counts. If he loses, it's probably because of the media attention on some of the issues."

"David Dunn has been out working," says John Hoffman of the Greene County Republican Central Committee. "I'm not saying what it means, but this is a strange year. It seems like a year that a lot of Republicans are being challenged. It's not something you normally see."

"A few years ago, the race in that district was one of the nastiest races I've seen in a long time," says Thelma Neff. "Yes, Charlie is vulnerable. He's displeased a lot of people. I think the trip he made to the Cardinals game hurt him. I'm hearing a lot of people disappointed with Charlie."

"I'm not convinced Charlie is there for the right reasons. The votes he missed irritated me," says one local businessman with political interests. "I've heard this is a very tight race, one or two points either way. People have had a belly full of Charlie. Dunn has a chance."

"The #135th might have slightly higher turnout because of the concentration of voters in that district," says Greene County Republican chair Cindy Stein. "I think they will all be races to watch potentially."

#136: Marsh vs. Vanaman
"In a lot of these races, it seems to be more about personality than issues. If people really looked at how legislators performed, B.J. Marsh would've been gone a long time ago," says one Republican.

"The dirty little secret is that a lot of Republicans don't believe B.J. Marsh is a real Republican," says another Republican strategist.

#139: Schoeller vs. Pyles vs. Roark
"I think a lot of people have gotten excited about the open seat in the 139th," chair Cindy Stein says. "The insiders that talk about things don't necessarily resonate with the public. Even though there have been rumblings (in this race), it may not reach the voters."

"Karen Roark is a wonderful person, but she doesn't have a background in politics," says one Republican. "If she doesn't win, it may give a signal about Brad's chances in his race for county commissioner. If she wins convincingly, it may show the coattails are wider than some may have envisioned. Then again, Schoeller has the powers that-be behind him and Pyles has created his own niche for himself, whether or not you agree or disagree with him."

"A lot of people call and ask me why is Brad's wife running for his seat," says Thelma Neff. "I say, it's not his wife. He doesn't have one of those."

"Karen will do well because of name recognition, but Shane's been working like a little demon. I don't know Pyles, but I heard he has good quiet support with veterans," Neff says.

One longtime Republican activist says, "I'm very much for Schoeller. I'm very impressed with him. He's more suited for the seat, more knowlegeable."

She adds, "I think it's pretty dumb that Karen is running for the seat. The only time I've seen her is when she'd fill in for Brad and do things he should've been doing for himself as a legislator. I just don't think the family ties thing is a good idea. And every time I meet Schoeller I'm more impressed."

One Springfield businessman says, "Schoeller has left a bad taste in some people's mouth because he lived in two different districts before he settled here. I don't know how that will play. I think Pyles is liked by a lot of people. He won't win but he could throw a monkey wrench into the whole race."

OVERALL
These Republican insiders believe Rep. Charlie Denison may be the most vulnerable incumbent primary night. These Republican insiders believe Rep. Jim Viebrock may be the most besieged Republican incumbent who survives primary night. These Republican insiders believe the race in the #139th between Shane Schoeller and Karen Roark will be the most interesting race of the night.

Obviously this is not a perfect or scientific sample of Republican primary voters. In fact it is a small sample, but it is G.O.P. members in the know. Heck, they could be dead wrong. But I'm trying to give you a sense of what the insiders are feeling one week before election day. This was a random call of Republican activists and their friends. I have several calls into other Republican party members. When I hear back from them and interview them, I will pass their comments along to you.

What are you hearing? Who is the most vulnerable incumbent? Which race will be the closest? Which race is getting more attention than it deserves?