They say an incumbent is vulnerable if he or she falls under the 50% mark in support.
If what they say is true . . . man oh man, do we have a race is Missouri!
SurveyUSA's monthly tracking poll has Senator Jim Talent pegged at a 49% approval rating this July. The good news for Talent is that he is trending in the right direction.
In May, Talent's approval rating was 43%.
In June, Talent's approval rating was 48%.
He is getting closer to that magic 50 mark. Can he break through?
Going inside the numbers . . .
Talent is slightly stronger with males, polls best with seniors and worst with young people. He only has the approval of 70% of Republicans, which seems soft, yet only 62% of Democrats disapprove of him. That helps make Talent's case that he's bipartisan, works across the aisle, etc . . .
More good news . . . 52% of independents approve of Talent's work.
Among pro-lifers . . . 59% approve of Talent.
Among pro-choicers . . . 41% approve of Talent.
So his support looks soft, but so does his opposition there. I'm scratching my head here.
But Talent scores a 57% approval rating in the Ozarks this July. That's up 10 points in one month! A big jump! Was it the conservative base rallying to his vote against stem cells? Are they energized behind his opposition?
All in all, with where Republicans stand and the swirling national climate, not bad numbers for the Senator in July. Can he make them stick and continue to climb?
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