Primary Totals: Do They Matter?

In the last four U.S. Senate primaries in Missouri, the candidate who won the most votes in August only went on to win in November half of the time.

In 1998, Sen. Kit Bond won about 13,000 more votes than Democrat Jay Nixon in August, and then sailed to a 53%-44% victory in November. In 2002, Jim Talent won almost 28,000 more votes than Sen. Jean Carnahan in August, and then just edged her out in November 50%-49%.

To the contrary, in 2000, John Ashcroft won 3,600 more votes than Mel Carnahan primary day, but in November Carnahan prevailed (obviously under extraordinary circumstances) 51%-48%. In 2004, Nancy Farmer won almost 3,000 more votes than Sen. Kit Bond on primary day. But again, Bond easily cruised in November 56%-43%.