I received more calls back from G.O.P. party regulars today about Tuesday's primary races. I've combined their thoughts with other Republicans to concoct these emerging themes, now just 5 days before the voting . . .
#134 - BILYEU, THE SLEEPER CANDIDATE
While the supporters of Rep. Jim Viebrock and Mayor Jim Collins continue to slam each other -sometimes viciously - some Republicans believe the quiet candidacy of longtime educator and debate coach Bob Bilyeu will benefit.
"Bilyeu is a very attractive candidate in this field. He's warm, he's not a firebrand," says one local Republican committeeman. "He's got lots of tentacles in this community." This G.O.P. insider says Bilyeu could benefit from a political murder-suicide between Viebrock and Collins.
"Viebrock has rustled the feathers of some people in Jefferson City and the party, I have heard Collins has irritated lots of people in Republic with his antics. If the vote somehow splits in Republic and Bilyeu strongly carries western Springfield, he could narrowly walk away with this," the Republican surmises.
Ron Mark, who serves as vice-chair of the 134th, says Viebrock is vulnerable, but says he thinks the race is between Viebrock and Collins because they are from Republic. "The people here in Republic believe the #134th should represent Republic, even though it includes other areas."
Another Republican, who lives outside of the #134th, points out that most of the votes in the district come from outside of Republic. "Regardless of what people in Republic tell you, the majority of the vote isn't in Republic. The biggest part of the vote still comes from Springfield and Bilyeu is widely known in the area, because of his years in the schools and churches."
This Republican adds, "From Bilyeu's standpoint, it hurts him if Collins doesn't do well in Republic. He needs Collins to take some votes from Viebrock there and then win out in Springfield."
Former Missouri Republican Party Chair Tom Fowler also says to watch Bilyeu. "Bilyeu's a strong candidate who knows a lot of people. He has a base of parents and kids he taught, he's very active in his church. That makes a lot of difference," Fowler says.
#139 SCHOELLER: A TEST OF PARTY POWER
Some Republicans believe Shane Schoeller's success or failure Tuesday will be a test of how strong the party regulars remain in local politics. Privately, some G.O.P. insiders are just baffled about the candidacy of Karen Roark, Rep. Brad Roark's mother. When I asked one Republican resident in the #139th if she was qualified to be a lawmaker, he replied, "don't ask me that."
Many of the committee people in the 139th threw their support to Schoeller early on, and haven't even heard from Roark yet. "I've never even talked to her," said one party official. "She's made no effort to contact me."
The theory goes that Schoeller is stronger in the western end of the district, while Roark will perform better in the eastern part. "She obviously gets a lot just from the name. You see a lot of Brad's signs and a lot of her signs, real close to each other" says one Republican.
"I think Schoeller will pull it off in the end," says the #139th party official. "But it will be a real test to see if the party rank and file make a difference in picking and endorsing candidates anymore."
#62-THE POTENTIAL UPSET YOU HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT
In separate conversations, two different Republicans have alerted me about a State House primary brewing in Taney County that is hot, hot, hot. G.O.P. insiders are saying that Rep. Dennis Wood is in danger of losing his seat to Cy Murray in the primary. These Republicans say Murray is well-known in the area and campaigning hard and has a real shot at a quiet coup in Taney County. "Wood is stronger in the western part near Kimberling City. Murray has real support in the eastern part, that's Branson. If he gets people out in Branson, that could be the difference," says one Greene County party member.
If you are interested in Murray's campaign, click here to see his website. Here is Rep.Wood's legislative site.
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