The Washington Post is out with an article this Sunday which features how Democratic candidates like Claire McCaskill are placing their bets on a rural strategy to win in November.
The headline: Dems Look Beyond City Limits. The article features McCaskill right off the top of the piece and talks about how she focused on big turnout in the cities during her 2004 run for Governor . . . and that she lost. The story makes the case that McCaskill is back with a "new commitment to rural voters . . . with trips to such towns as Hannibal, Springfield, Branson and Mexico."
"What 2004 demonstrated is that we have ignored rural Missouri at our own peril," McCaskill said.
But is the Democratic strategy betting that voters in rural Ozarks counties will turn out for Claire or that they will just stay home and not vote because they are disillusioned with the G.O.P?
A quick overview of McCaskill's numbers in the Ozarks in 2004 is not encouraging for Democrats. I looked at the numbers in 25 Ozarks counties . . . Here's just a sample.
Greene County . . . Blunt beat McCaskill 61-37%
Dade County . . . Blunt beat McCaskill 72-27%
Texas County . . . Blunt beat McCaskill 60-38%
Of the 25 counties I reviewed, it looks like McCaskill's best performance was in Benton and Hickory counties where she lost by 15 points. (57-42% in both places) It seems the further north and east you get away from the Ozarks, the better McCaskill did.
The expectation for Democrats most likely isn't to win these counties, but cut down on the margins of defeat.
Question: Just two years after she got beat in every Ozarks county by double-digit margins, will there be a substantial amount of new Democratic votes here for McCaskill when all is said and done?
1 comment:
Remember in 2004 Matt Blunt benefited in the 7th district from being a local candidate and having his fathers connections. Talent has a record and reputation of his own. Talent grew up in the wealthy suburbs of St. Louis not Strafford. He doens't have much in common with Republicans from the Ozarks.
I think a lot of rural Missoourians have buyers remorse from supporting Matt Blunt given the disaster his first two years as Governor have prooven to be. Roy Blunt is not in much of a position to help since he has to worry about losing the House. Given his ties to DeLay I am not sure he would be much help anyway.
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