A few months ago, it was just lame to say it was too early.
Not, it simply isn't accurate.
In just over 5 months, Iowans will caucus, and the numbers are on the move. The conventional wisdom on the Democratic side is if Hillary Clinton wins Iowa, it's the ballgame folks. For the G.O.P., Iowa is seen as a must-win for Mitt Romney.
But the latest American Research Group survey shows some possible momentum for Rudy Giuliani in the Hawkeye State, even though he's dissing the Aug. 11th straw poll. Still, overall trends gotta make Romney the man to beat there.
IOWA REPUBLICANS
Rudy Giuliani 22%
Mitt Romney 21%
John McCain 17%
Fred Thompson 13%
Still, looks like a 4-way race to me. Very volatile, with a slight edge to Romney.
On the Democratic side, John Edwards has dropped 8 points in the last month, opening up a 9 point lead for Hillary Clinton. If Clinton can't win this state, she'd rather have Edwards do it for her. She can't afford the big 'Mo Obama would get from an Iowa upset.
IOWA DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton 30%
John Edwards 21%
Barack Obama 15%
Bill Richardson 13%
Notable in both polls is that significant chunks of undecided voters remain. But why is Obama not doing better here? Is it the experience thing? Or the fact that he's a black guy in a white state?
A quick look at New Hampshire and South Carolina indicate the volatility of the race as well. Clinton and Obama are deadlocked at 31% in New Hampshire; as are Romney (26%) and Giuliani (27%).
In South Carolina, Obama holds a slight lead over Clinton. Giuliani has a one-point-edge on yet-to-be-announced-but already-kind-of-running-G.O.P-savior Fred Thompson.
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