Come next month, not many in Congress will have more influence over America's role in Iraq than Missouri's 4th District Representative.
Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Lexington) will soon become Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and be able to wield new power in the debate over Iraq.
I recently traveled to Blue Springs, Mo. to sit down with Skelton for a rare in-depth interview. You can watch the KY3 News @ 10 report here.
I began asking Skelton about the pending report of the James Baker-Lee Hamilton Iraq Study Group, which is likely to call for some type phased withdrawal from Iraq.
Redeploy Now
"I think we should be redeploying troops this year, this calendar year," Skelton said. "We're losing the equivalent of a battalion a month, between 500 and 600 soldiers and Marines killed and wounded each month. It's up to the Iraqis to do it. We can't do it for them."
When Skelton talks about "this calendar year," he means right now, immediately. "You have to send the message to the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people and let the American people know that we're redeploying now. Whether it's a battalion or a brigade, it doesn't make any difference," Skelton said.
The 74-year-old Skelton said the number of troops redeployed initially is less important than taking the first steps to actually redeploy them. Skelton said he'd leave specific numbers to military commanders on the ground.
"To let everyone know, we're not there permanently. We're there to help, in the transition, help them, finish logistics if we have to, really let Iraqis run this security show."
For almost every question I ask about the biggest problems in Iraq, Skelton responds by talking about training.
Training Is Tough
"I've been advocating speeding up the trainers for quite some time. Why we didn't think about it quite some months or years ago, I don't know, but we're going to have to train them up," Skelton said.
That's much harder than it sounds. The United States has sent infantrymen and artillerymen to train Iraqis, which Skelton said has become problematic. That's because these soldiers haven't received the adequate training to teach foreigners to become fighters. "It takes a special kind of person to train. Special Forces are very good, but their numbers are limited," Skelton said.
He noted that Fort Riley, Kansas is now training U.S. soldiers how to train. "Is it too late,?" Skelton asked. "I hope not."
Will a Democratic Congress force a vote on the floor to bring troops home within a year? Skelton said he doesn't foresee that, as long as some type of redeployment begins in the future.
"I've been urging for redeployment for some time, I've been urging to begin this year. I've been urging speedier training," Skelton said. "The American people have spoken, particularly about Iraq.
The New Chairman
But when I press him on how Democrats can change the President's mind on the issue, Skelton said he has new power as an incoming committee chair that he can wield. One option would be to introduce a bill to completely cut off funding for the war. Skelton vowed never to do that. "Absolutely not," he replied to my question. But he did indicate that there are other ways to influence legislation.
"You can also insert different types of language in different types of bills, whether they be appropriation bills or bills that come through the Armed Services Committee, or you could have extensive oversight hearings on certain aspects of the training," Skelton said.
Skelton is betting that the Iraq Study Group's recommendations will force President Bush to begin to move and soften his hardline approach. He noted that there's evidence the President can change his mind. Just look at Donald Rumsfeld, he offered.
Skelton's opinion on Iraq has evolved. While he wrote letters to President Bush on Sept. 4th, 2002 and March 18th, 2003, warning of potential problems surrounding an occupation, Skelton voted for the war and as early as last year batted back calls by some of his Democratic colleagues to set a specific timetable for withdrawal.
He said the major event or series of events that changed his mind was the sectarian violence. The war began with Al-Qaeda insurgents and foreign fighters stirring up most of the trouble, Skelton said. But now much of the violence is between the Iraqis themselves.
"Overlying all of this now is sectarian violence. The Sunnis killing the Shiites, the Shiites killing the Sunnis. It's a fight between these groups with noone left standing," Skelton observed.
No Graceful Exit
When I ask Skelton if this war is still winnable, he bristles at using the term. "I don't like to use the word winnable because there is no graceful exit. What they should've thought about is what Colin Powell said, you never start a conflict unless you know or have an exit strategy and they didn't do that. They didn't even have a plan going in," Skelton said of the Bush administration.
Would Skelton support sending more troops to Iraq? He said he is not sure where the military would find them. "You are going to have a hard time finding troops that are fully ready. We have a brigade in Kuwait and one in Germany that are at that ready rate, but here in the U.S. most are not at that level," Skelton said.
The reason? Most of the equipment they train on in the United States has already been sent to Iraq or Afghanistan, according to Skelton.
"You see 40% of all Army equipment, whether it be active duty, national guard or reserve, 40% of their equipment is over there," he said. "When we're not able to train on our own equipment, that's a sad state of affairs."
Skelton now calls Iraq a civil war because of the sheer level of violence. That's why he said the training of Iraqis has been so tough. "It all comes back to training. These are Iraqis that have to go out and fight and detain other Iraqis. You can see how this would be a problem. Some of them have become very good. But there's been a fair amount of desertion, some aren't following orders. You're talking about Iraqis fighting their own," Skelton said.
If the civil strife is so great, why not partition the country into three sections, as suggested by Delaware Sen. Joe Biden? Skelton rejects the proposal.
"Partitioning Iraq is not a good idea. The problem is that some of the cities and larger portions of the country have all three groups living next door to each other. How are you going to partition that? The other is that the Sunni area doesn't have oil, as some of the other parts of the country does," Skelton said.
Oversight & Investigations
When Skelton takes over the Armed Services Committee gavel in January, he plans to hold a series of hearings about the past, present and future of Iraq. He told me he wants to resurrect a subcommittee on "Oversight and Investigations." He said specifics would be decided by that committee's chairman, but signaled that he is interested in looking at a lot of the decisions made during the war.
"There was no plan for the aftermath. They allowed the looting, the de-Baathification, that is, putting people out of work that belonged to the Baathist party. In the process, they put out of work thousands of teachers," Skelton said. Who he may call as potential witnesses is unknown. Skelton said it is too early to name names.
Skelton said he wants to know why the United States didn't decide to embrace the defeated Iraqi Army, "give them a shovel and a paycheck and make them part of the security."
"They were already trained," Skelton noted.
Skelton's September 2003 visit to Iraq has stuck in his mind for awhile. That's when Chief Weapons Inspector David Kay told him that 50 caches of ammunition and weapons were left unguarded after the initial taking of the country. "Those are the weapons the insurgents got a hold of to use to kill our boys," Skelton said.
Asked whether he feared attacks from Republicans about fishing "too much in the past," Skelton said it would be helpful to look back. "The military always looks back in what they call lessons, learned. It will be good for Congress to do so as well," he said.
Of his 30 years in Congress, this is the most tumultuous foreign affairs period Skelton has ever seen. "The Middle East effort is the most difficult our nation has faced since I've been in Congress," he said.
But Skelton is not known for his partisanship. A Democrat in the mold of Harry Truman, Skelton praised Secretary of Defense Nominee Robert Gates as a "first-rate servant, who is able to listen." Skelton said Gates should be smoothly confirmed. He worked with Gates as a member of the Intelligence Committee years ago. "I think he will do a good job," Skelton said.
Skelton is also encouraging the Administration to talk with some its enemies, namely Syria and Iran.
When I ask if he would support any type of action against Iran, he sidesteps.
"Let's hope that never comes to pass," Skelton said.
(More of my interview with Ike Skelton to come)
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