MICHIGAN GOES TO MITT

SETS UP 3-MAN S.C. SHOWDOWN

BLUNT CALLS ROMNEY "The Clear Frontrunner"

DETROIT (AP) - Mitt Romney has scored his first major primary victory in his native Michigan. Romney's win over John McCain is one Romney desperately needed to give his weakened candidacy new life and to set the stage for a three-man Republican showdown in South Carolina.

"I congratulate Governor Romney on his tremendous victory tonight in Michigan," Blunt said in a statement. "Governor Romney has won in Michigan, he won in Wyoming, and he came in second in Iowa and New Hampshire which I believe makes him the clear frontrunner," he added.

"This is a victory for those of us who are tired of the mess in Washington and who recognize that Governor Romney has the vision and values to deliver real, conservative change to make Washington work again," Blunt said.

***ALL-POLITICS TUESDAY***

The MICHIGAN Primary

The STATE of The STATE

The DEMOCRATS Debate

A full-plate of politics this super-duper Tuesday begins early, as voters head to the polls in Michigan as you read this.

The Republican primary in Michigan will be laser-focused on the economy, which has been crippled by an auto industry wrestling with rising healthcare costs. The favorite son seems to be Mitt Romney, who was born there, grew up there, and had a father who served three-terms as Governor there. The pundits will tell you it is do-or-die for him, but it's really not, as even he, has vowed to go on. "I sure don't have to win Michigan," Romney told ABC News. "I can win other states."

But the polls are close, and could be unreliable -- because many of their samples haven't included a significant amount of independent and Democratic voters, who could crossover to anoint John McCain the new undisputed frontrunner of a splintered Republican field. If voters decide general electability trumps all, look for a McCain win.

Then again, the forecast in Michigan today is light snow. Nothing like a blizzard. But speculation is the white stuff could help Romney, by depressing turnout among late-deciders who may be breaking against the wounded Romney and the resurgent McCain. Absentee ballots look to favor Romney.

Here's the rest of the super-charged political docket today . . . (Set your watch) . . .

2:30 p.m. Members of the Southwest Center for Independent Living will hold a news conference in Springfield to pre-empt Gov. Matt Blunt's State of the State. The focus: the Medicaid cuts.
7:02 p.m. Gov. Matt Blunt will deliver his 4th State of the State address. It's expected to last about an hour. (We can always hope he talks fast.)
8:00 p.m. Attorney General and Democratic candidate for Governor will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the State. And the 2008 race for Governor will officially be underway.
8:00 p.m. Polls in Michigan close statewide.
8:00 p.m. The Democratic candidates for president (yes, Dennis Kucinich too!) debate in Las Vegas on MSNBC with the big dogs, Brian Williams and Tim Russert.
8-9 p.m. The Associated Press and major networks project a winner of the G.O.P. Michigan Primary
10 p.m. KY3 News @ 10 reports on the results of the Michigan primary and the State of the State address, including a feature on a ***special panel*** we are assembling to watch the Governor's address and react to it.

***If YOU are interested in participating in our special panel that will watch the Governor's State of the State address live at KY3 Studios Tuesday night at 7 p.m., you can e-mail me at dcatanese@ky3.com. We're looking for diverse views to react in real time. If you are a Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, independent --- or anything else ---drop me a line. The small group of seats is limited.

8 Things You Should Know . . .

ABOUT THE G.O.P. MICHIGAN PRIMARY

1) Some Democrats will be voting in the G.O.P. primary. There's no real contest on the Democratic side, because Michigan Dems violated party rules by leapfrogging other states on the primary calendar. Many major Dem candidates aren't even on the ballot. Therefore, Dems looking to get into the action could cast honest or menacing votes in a tight Republican primary.

2) The Polls are giving an edge to Mitt Romney. McClatchy-MSNBC gives Romney an 8-point lead over John McCain. The Detroit Free-Press gives Romney a 5-point edge. But all the polls also show a sizable amount of voters still undecided or willing to change their minds.

3) Newt Gingrich thinks Mitt Romney will win Michigan.

4) George Will reminds us that in western Michigan, some schools still have Bibles on hand. High turnout in those parts could spur another Mike Huckabee surprise.

5) The Economy is the top issue on voters minds in Michigan. Michigan was spiraling towards a recession when the rest of the country was booming. Whichever candidate can articulate a practical message of economic improvement could gain a slight edge late in the game.

6) Mitt Romney says he would handily win Michigan if it was just Republicans and independents voting. But he seems unsure on how Democrats will impact the race. Romney pledges to go on through February 5th no matter where he finishes.

7) If John McCain isn't defeated in Michigan, he will have the momentum. But if independents and Democrats crossover to vote for him in significant numbers, look for Romney to poo-poo the victory, claiming he won Republicans and has the right to fight on.

8) No matter what happens in Michigan, the Republican race will remain muddled and unpredictable. No candidate will leave the race or drastically change their strategy based on this state's results.

New Michigan Poll: TIGHT

DETROIT NEWS POLL SHOWS 3-WAY BRAWL
WITH 3 DAYS TO GO . . .

John McCain and Mitt Romney are virtually deadlocked in a new poll of Michigan Republican primary voters, with Mike Huckabee not far behind.

The latest numbers:

MICHIGAN GOP
John McCain 27%
Mitt Romney 26%
Mike Huckabee 19%

The poll surveyed 604 likely primary voters between Wednesday and Saturday. The margin of error is 4 points.

45% are either undecided or could change their preference. Romney leads 27%-24% among self-described Republicans. McCain and Huckabee do better outside the 3-county Detroit area.

Next Up: MICHIGAN

ROMNEY VS. MCCAIN Part Deux

While the Democratic race for president has turned into a multiple-round battle royale, the Republican race now seems to have become a single-elimination tournament.

Mitt Romney must-win Michigan. Mike Huckabee must-win South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani must-win Florida.

With just three days until the Michigan Republican primary, here's where the polls stand:

A Strategic Vision poll of 700 likely Republicans taken after Huckabee's Iowa win but before McCain's New Hampshire victory shows McCain with a 9-point advantage.

MICHIGAN GOP
John McCain 29%
Mitt Romney 20%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 13%

(4 point margin of error)

McCain won Michigan back in 2000, and since the Democrats aren't competing there, the Arizona Senator can count on some independents and even Democrats to bolster his support. Still, this is one of 4 or so of Mitt Romney's "home" states, and he is expected to have a shot due to his father's deep roots and his managerial experience on economic issues.