Sunday, January 13, 2008

8 Things You Should Know . . .


1) Some Democrats will be voting in the G.O.P. primary. There's no real contest on the Democratic side, because Michigan Dems violated party rules by leapfrogging other states on the primary calendar. Many major Dem candidates aren't even on the ballot. Therefore, Dems looking to get into the action could cast honest or menacing votes in a tight Republican primary.

2) The Polls
are giving an edge to Mitt Romney. McClatchy-MSNBC gives Romney an 8-point lead over John McCain. The Detroit Free-Press gives Romney a 5-point edge. But all the polls also show a sizable amount of voters still undecided or willing to change their minds.

3) Newt Gingrich
thinks Mitt Romney will win Michigan.

4) George Will reminds us that in western Michigan, some schools still have Bibles on hand. High turnout in those parts could spur another Mike Huckabee surprise.

5) The Economy is the top issue on voters minds in Michigan. Michigan was spiraling towards a recession when the rest of the country was booming. Whichever candidate can articulate a practical message of economic improvement could gain a slight edge late in the game.

6) Mitt Romney says he would handily win Michigan if it was just Republicans and independents voting. But he seems unsure on how Democrats will impact the race. Romney pledges to go on through February 5th no matter where he finishes.

7) If John McCain isn't defeated in Michigan, he will have the momentum. But if independents and Democrats crossover to vote for him in significant numbers, look for Romney to poo-poo the victory, claiming he won Republicans and has the right to fight on.

8) No matter what happens in Michigan, the Republican race will remain muddled and unpredictable. No candidate will leave the race or drastically change their strategy based on this state's results.

1 comment:

Matt said...

Romney has to win MI; don't let the cheesy olympic analogies fool you.

(As a McCain supporter, it pains me to state the following): Luckly for Romney, two things work in his favor: he's on true "home turf" and McCain seems to be content with coasting on his victory in New Hampshire which may or may not provide enough momentum to get him over the hump. In the end, it won't:

MI Primary
1) Romney
2) McCain
3) Huckabee