Wednesday, November 21, 2007

More Huck 'Mo In Iowa

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll of Republican Iowa caucus goers shows more momentum for former Governor Mike Huckabee in the Hawkeye State.

Mitt Romney 28%
Mike Huckabee 24%
Fred Thompson 15%
Rudy Giuliani 13%

This is the third poll in the last 10 days to show major movement for Huckabee towards Romney in Iowa.

From the ABC-Post Poll:

Item: Huckabee's support seems stronger and more enthusiastic than that of his rivals.
Item: Iowans view Huckabee as more honest and trustworthy than Romney, but less credible.
Item: Huckabee's support is concentrated within Evangelical Protestants, Romney's is more diverse and widespread.
Item: 48% of Huckabee's supporters said they'd definitely vote for him; Just 29% of Romney's backers said the same.

The question now becomes an expectations game for Huckabee. As his expectations rise, does he face more pressure to outperform them? Is he peaking too soon? If he finishes second in Iowa, will that become a letdown -- or does he still get a viable ticket out to New Hampshire and South Carolina? Can he pull off a upset of Romney that will shuffle the Republican field to an even greater extent. And if Huckabee does pull off Iowa, does he get a bigger bounce than usual because of the feat?


Matt said...

Now that New Hampshire is set, can you give us a rundown on the respective primary and caucus dates, beginning with Iowa?

Matt said...

Here I am answering my own query. The NY Times has a pretty good rundown of the primary/caucus schedule here:



Hey Dave, about a week out of this thing, are we going to make our fearless predictions? I'm game...

David Catanese said...


Oooh. They can be sooo dangerous.

But why not:)?