Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Cooking Up A Prediction For Blunt?

The Cook Political Report's Charlie Cook predicts that Republicans will pick up between four and six U.S. Senate seats in 2010 -- strongly suggesting without explicitly saying that Roy Blunt will prevail over likely Democratic opponent Robin Carnahan.
@RoyBlunt touted the news in a TWEET Tuesday afternoon.
"I suspect a Republican gain of between four and six seats between four and six seats, predicated on Democrats being unlikely to beat any Republican open-seat Senate candidate or being able to unseat any Republican Senate incumbent. Democrats will have to be more concerned with defending their own seats.," wrote Cook in his Dec. 18th update.
THE CAVEAT: "Obviously much can and much will happen between now and November 2nd, 2010 and our estimates will undoubtedly change dozens of times over the next year," Cook concludes.
His colleague Jennifer Duffy is more conservative in her Republican upswing, estimating
the Senate could run from a wash, with neither party gaining a net seat on the other, up to a three seat gain for Republicans.
The difference between Duffy & Cook's analysis? Cook places greater weight on national dynamics while Duffy focuses on local developments within states.
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll gave Carnahan a statistically insignificant 2 percentage point edge, 46%-44%, over the Ozarks Congressman.


Waker Upper said...

Bailout Blunt's chances are getting slimmer. He just voted for more money for Cash for Clunkers & thinks we weren't looking.

Tea anyone?

Busplunge said...

What do you think Cook means when he uses the word "predicated" ?