Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Prediction Check

Now that Missouri's been officially called for John McCain, it's a good a time as any to review my 2008 election predictions.
Turns out I was much better at presidential picking, than predicting margins on down-ballot races. Here's the link to my prediction post. Lesson, should have went bigger for my picks. The margins were mostly much bigger than I expected. And yeah, I should pack in picking ballot initiatives. Biggest surprise was Question 1, but also a bit surprised that Prop A passed so easily, considering how much stuff was packed in there.
Here's the list of my specific predictions versus the actual result:
Prediction: Obama, 364 Electoral Votes to 174 for McCain
Actual: Obama, 365 to 173 for McCain
(Just one EV off . . . I picked McCain to win Indiana and picked Obama to win Missouri.)
Prediction: Governor: Nixon by 11 1/2
Actual: Governor: Nixon won by 18.9%
(This one worries me, because in a debate prep meeting, I cockily bet the entire panel lunch that Nixon wouldn't win by more than 20 points, and it's painfully near that.)
Prediction: Lt. Governor: Kinder by 1 1/2
Actual: Lt. Governor: Kinder won by 2.6%
Prediction: Attorney General: Koster by 3
Actual: Koster won by 6%
Prediction: Secretary of State: Carnahan by 16
Actual: Carnahan won by 26%
Prediction: Treasurer: Lager by 1
Actual: Zweifel won by 4%
Prediction: U.S. House, 7th District: Blunt by 28
Actual: Blunt won by 40%
Prediction: #135th House: Denison by 6
Actual: Denison won by 12%
Prediction: #136th House: Burlison by 3 1/2
Actual: Burlison won by 16%
Prediction: #138th House: Lampe by 15
Actual: Lampe won by 24%
Prediction: Greene County Sheriff: Arnott by 8 1/2
Actual: Arnott won by 17%
Prediction: Amendment 1 : PASSES Easily
Actual: Passed with 86%
Prediction: Prop A: FAILS Narrowly
Actual: Passed with 56%
Prediction Prop B: FAILS
Actual: Passed with 75%
Actual: Passed with 66%
Prediction: Question 1 (Greene Co.): FAILS Narrowly
Actual: Passed with 52%

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