Prediction Check

Now that Missouri's been officially called for John McCain, it's a good a time as any to review my 2008 election predictions.

Turns out I was much better at presidential picking, than predicting margins on down-ballot races. Here's the link to my prediction post. Lesson, should have went bigger for my picks. The margins were mostly much bigger than I expected. And yeah, I should pack in picking ballot initiatives. Biggest surprise was Question 1, but also a bit surprised that Prop A passed so easily, considering how much stuff was packed in there.

Here's the list of my specific predictions versus the actual result:

Prediction: Obama, 364 Electoral Votes to 174 for McCain

Actual: Obama, 365 to 173 for McCain

(Just one EV off . . . I picked McCain to win Indiana and picked Obama to win Missouri.)

Prediction: Governor: Nixon by 11 1/2

Actual: Governor: Nixon won by 18.9%

(This one worries me, because in a debate prep meeting, I cockily bet the entire panel lunch that Nixon wouldn't win by more than 20 points, and it's painfully near that.)

Prediction: Lt. Governor: Kinder by 1 1/2

Actual: Lt. Governor: Kinder won by 2.6%

Prediction: Attorney General: Koster by 3

Actual: Koster won by 6%

Prediction: Secretary of State: Carnahan by 16

Actual: Carnahan won by 26%

Prediction: Treasurer: Lager by 1

Actual: Zweifel won by 4%

Prediction: U.S. House, 7th District: Blunt by 28

Actual: Blunt won by 40%

Prediction: #135th House: Denison by 6

Actual: Denison won by 12%

Prediction: #136th House: Burlison by 3 1/2

Actual: Burlison won by 16%

Prediction: #138th House: Lampe by 15

Actual: Lampe won by 24%

Prediction: Greene County Sheriff: Arnott by 8 1/2

Actual: Arnott won by 17%

Prediction: Amendment 1 : PASSES Easily

Actual: Passed with 86%

Prediction: Prop A: FAILS Narrowly

Actual: Passed with 56%

Prediction Prop B: FAILS

Actual: Passed with 75%

Prop C: PASSES

Actual: Passed with 66%

Prediction: Question 1 (Greene Co.): FAILS Narrowly

Actual: Passed with 52%