Saturday, August 02, 2008

SurveyUSA: Hulshof By 12

A SurveyUSA poll conducted with about a week until the primary shows Congressman Kenny Hulshof with a comfortable lead over State Treasurer Sarah Steelman in the Republican primary race for Governor.

Kenny Hulshof 45%
Sarah Steelman 33%
Undecided 15%
(Hat tip: John Combest)

The poll was taken of 463 likely primary voters between July 29th and July 31st. It has a margin of error of 4.6%.

The survey shows Hulshof leading Steelman across the board, in almost every category. Hulshof leads in every age group and among independents, 56%-27%. Among moderates, Steelman leads by 10 points, 44%-34%. The poll also found that Hulshof supporters seem to be more solid in their decision. Just 25% of Hulshof supporters say they could change their mind before election day, compared to 50% of Steelman supporters. Hulshof leads on every issue, except immigration, where Steelman bests him 53% to 34%.

Hulshof also has the advantage in every geographic region except Kansas City, where the Congressman hasn't bought much television advertising. SurveyUSA calculates southwest Missouri as about 26% of the Republican primary electorate and St. Louis about 27%.

The poll give Hulshof a considerable lead in the St. Louis region; 48%-29%. But in southwest Missouri, it's Steelman who holds a narrow edge, 41%-40%, with 12% still undecided.
In head-to-to-head match-ups, Hulshof appears to be stronger against likely Democratic nominee Jay Nixon. Hulshof polls within 6 points of Nixon, while Nixon tops Steelman by 9 points.

Jay Nixon 48%
Kenny Hulshof 42%
Undecided 9%
Jay Nixon 50%
Sarah Steelman 41%
Undecided 9%

1 comment:

Richard said...

I have not been liking our chances but the race is tightening and I think we can beat Nixon.