Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Down Hil'?

**CAN HE BE STOPPED?**
OBAMA TURNS POTOMAC TRIFECTA . . .
AND BEGINS TO CHANGE THE GAME
TAKES VIRGINIA, MARYLAND & D.C. BIG
CLINTON MUST START WINNING . . . WITH LARGE MARGINS
"It is highly unlikely that Hillary Clinton is going to finish this primary season with a lead in pledged delegates . . . Virtually Impossible."

Could this be the day that it all really changed?

Barack Obama won large double-digit victories in Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C. Tuesday night to take the overall delegate lead over Hillary Clinton for the first time in their contest. Obama can also now claim that he's won more than double the amount of states Clinton has won -- his 21, to her 10. Obama is now also winning the national popular vote.

But most importantly, it is now highly unlikely Hillary Clinton will finish the 2008 primary season with the lead in pledged delegates. "Virtually impossible," according to Newsweek's Howard Fineman. The goal for the Clinton campaign, per Fineman, is to keep it close enough to fight on and win the nomination with superdelgates.

"Every place she wins, she's got to win big," said NBC Political Director Chuck Todd, noting that Clinton needs to pile up wins with 60% of the vote going forward. "When he wins, he's winning big," Todd said.

In a sign she's already looking to beyond February, Clinton took her campaign to delegate rich Texas Wednesday, the state that could amount to the former First Lady's last stand.

Obama, meanwhile, made his victory speech in Madison, Wisconsin Tuesday night -- the site of the next big primary in the race for the Democratic nomination. The latest Strategic Vision poll of Wisconsin shows this result:

Wisconsin Dems

OBAMA 45%
CLINTON 41%
(92 delegates at stake)

"Hillary Clinton would be wise to consider Wisconsin as a must-do-well state," wrote Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly.

Obama now has to be the undoubted frontrunner in this fascinating race for president. We'd be stupid to count Ms. Clinton out, so we won't. But NBC News now projects Hillary Clinton must win 56% of the remaining pledged delegates to take the nomination. That means must-wins for Clinton coming up very quick.

The victories Obama won in the Potomac were not the striking part -- it was the margins he racked up that must be ominous for the Clinton camp. Obama is beginning to win all the demographics on all the issues. The liberal blog Daily Kos gleefully notes: "Barack Obama just didn't beat Hillary in Virginia. He didn't just get more votes than John McCain. In 'red' Virginia, Obama got 142,000."

Take all that, and it looks very, very difficult for Hillary Clinton to become the 2008 Democratic nominee for president.




1 comment:

stearnsybears said...

If you watch much football you have seen teams with a big lead set back and try to hold on. They like to use the prevent defense. Announcers sometimes use a cliché that goes " the prevent defense prevents you from winning." Hillary Clinton's campaign only strategy seems to be trying to hang on in the states where she had a big lead. It may work but it may prevent her from winning. It doesn't speak that well for the people who are running her campaign. If she does win the nomination I hope she has a better playbook for the general election.