A new Newsweek poll out of Iowa is bucking the conventional wisdom . . .
IOWA G.O.P.
Mitt Romney 24%
Fred Thompson 16%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Mike Huckabee 12%
Mitt Romney continues to lead but his support isn't "ironclad," according to the piece. Mike Huckabee breaks into the "top tier" in Iowa, registering in double-digits for the first time. The Republican field in Iowa, as elsewhere, still seems volatile. But Romney has to be considered the frontrunner.
IOWA DEMS (All Voters)
Hillary Clinton 31%
Barack Obama 25%
John Edwards 21%
IOWA DEMS (Likely Voters)
Barack Obama 28%
Hillary Clinton 24%
John Edwards 21%
Bill Richardson 10%
Hillary Clinton leads among all voters in Iowa, but Barack Obama pulls ahead among those most likely to caucus. The danger here for Clinton is the 2nd picks. In the caucuses, once lower-tier candidates are eliminated and not viable, their supporters are able to move to support another remaining viable candidate. So the question is, who is the second choice of most of Bill Richardson's supporters? I'm betting they go with Obama. It seems to me if you aren't with Hillary already, you probably won't be converted. Also notable, Iowa no longer seems to be Edwards country. He's still in this, but it seems he has slipped. And of course, Iowa is a must win for him.
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