The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza now ranks Missouri's U.S. Senate seat as the third most likely to change parties. It's previous ranking (with Sen. Kit Bond as the potential candidate) was #5.
3. Missouri (R): Bond's retirement virtually ensures that Missouri Seretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) will run for the open seat. Carnahan, who is considered the most naturally politically talented member of a family that includes a former governor, a former U.S. senator and a congressman, was weighing a challenge to Bond and even Republicans acknowledge she would be a formidable candidate. Some Washington Republicans seem interested in casting Rep. Roy Blunt, the father of the former governor of the Show Me State, as the near-certain nominee but former Sen. Jim Talent (R) and former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman are still looking at the contest and either or both could contend.