From The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza:
1. Missouri (R): Polling show state Attorney General Jay Nixon (D), who has run statewide roughly one million times, comfortably ahead of Rep. Kenny Hulshof. Republicans insist Hulshof is still in the game but it looks to us like he never recovered from a brutal primary. And, running as a Republican Member of Congress in a change year where voters HATE Washington isn't exactly a recipe for success. (Previous ranking: 1)
Two is Washington, Three is North Carolina, followed by Vermont and Indiana.