Monday, January 28, 2008

Fight to the Finish in Florida


Two new polls out of the state of Florida show the Republican primary race as tight as ever.
(Click on the links to go inside the numbers)
John McCain 32%
Mitt Romney 31%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Mike Huckabee 13%
John McCain 30%
Mitt Romney 27%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Mike Huckabee 11%

1 comment:

Matt said...

Employing football parlance, "After further review", here's three reasons why Romney will win Florida today:

1) "Closed primary": Florida's primary is open only to registered members of the Republican party. No crossovers here. Advantage: Romney.

2) Rudy Giuliani. McCain and Rudy are competing for the same universe of voters. This is in much the same fashion what happened in South Carolina when Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee were competing for essentially the same voter demographic. Thompson took enough votes from Huckabee to deny Huckabee. Rudy doesn't hurt Romney as much as he hurts McCain.

3) Charlie Crist. Securing the popular governor's endorsement was a coup for the McCain camp. When you go inside the numbers however, there is a sizable section of conservative Republicans who are not happy with Crist. Again, if this primary were open (see #1 above), Crist's endorsement would mean more than it does, given his state-wide popularity. It does help McCain, but probably not enough to push him across the finish line in first place. Advantage: Romney.

The upshot: the GOP race leaves the Sunshine state a two person race with Romney and McCain. This should make Super Tuesday truly super.