Democrat Jay Nixon beats Gov. Matt Blunt in a head-to-head match-up 16 months before the election, according to a new poll by SurveyUSA.
Nixon defeats Blunt 57%-38% in a poll of 514 registered voters taken on July 24th-25th. The two split the male vote, but Nixon hammers Blunt among women.
In this poll, even in the Ozarks Blunt beats Nixon 53%-44%.
Republicans will complain that the sample is skewed. Notably, 39% of the participants identify themselves as Democrats, as opposed to 31% Republicans and 25% Independents.
2 comments:
While most polls are skewed toward democrats over republicans, usually it is only by a few points.
This is a large margin between Blunt and Nixon, which has got to cause some concern among republicans. Especially since Blunts approval numbers are way up from just a year ago.
Obviously many people think the governor has vastly approved in his job performance, but when given another choice they will vote for his opponent.
It will be very interesting to see if the governor continues to improve over the next year how it will impact his electoral chances.
I will take a wild guess, and using 2006 exit polls, I will weigh it by party affliation:
Dem: 37%
Gop: 39%
Ind: 25%
**Adds to 100%
Internals (% of Nixon Voters)
Dem: 84% (37% of Voters) = 31.08
Gop: 25% (39% of Voters) = 9.75
Ind: 58% (25% of Voters) = 14.5
So all weighted for real Party Affliation based on 2006 exit polls, Nixon has 55.33/101 support which makes it at approx 54.7% with a 4.4% margin of error..
Nixon is still ahead , reguardles... But he needs to play it right, because people have made comebacks before (Look at Arnold in California).
Only thing going well for Blunt is an uptick in approval rating (and still within the margin of error).
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